Photo: Allen Eyestone, USA Today Sports

Simply put: you’re going to want to check in here each week before setting your DraftKings lineups. That’s because I’ll be helping you sift through your DFS options without spinning my wheels talking fantasy scoring.

No, my goal will not be to opine to you on the highest scoring plays of the week’s slate; that’s a semi-fruitless task, and one you’re swarmed with on any other DFS advice site. Rather, I’m going to be reporting to you on the value of your options – their scoring abilities relative to their salaries. You’ll be filled in on the details of two weekly measures:

DK Points (DK Pts) is the player’s DraftKings projection for the week, rooted in the offense’s and defense’s performances over the last three weeks. (For the first few weeks, the model fills the gaps with my per-game projections for each player.) Please note that the goal of these projections is NOT to predict an exact point total; I’m not interested in supernaturally conjuring visions of Allen Robinson’s next 40-point explosion. Rather, I’m keeping a tight view of a player’s capabilities and seeking the likely outcome of his matchup – in a sense, I’m seeking out his probabilities of reaching a certain scoring level.

H-Value (DK H-Val) is an attempt to reconcile a player’s scoring projection with his per-dollar value. You can’t fill a lineup with exclusively high-salaried players, and you’d never load up on just cheap, low-ceiling options. H-value brings the two together, marrying a player’s projected scoring and salary to lay out his true meaning to a DFS roster. The formula is simple:

(DK Pts^1.73205 / DK Sal) * 2,000

(A quick key for the projections tables: DZ refers to the dark zone - plays snapped from the opponent's 10-yard line or closer. LgRu are long rushes, running plays of 20+ yards that allow us to somewhat project long touchdowns, and LgRec are receptions of 30+ yards that allow us to do the same in the passing game.)

And from there, you’ll be analyzing your DFS options based on more than some subjective guess about scoring. Without further ado, let’s tackle Week 3 for the DraftKings Sunday and Monday slates:

Quarterback

Cash Considerations

I’m loving the Falcons-Saints matchup, of course, from its 54-point Vegas total to its participants’ desperate needs to win through the air. Both Matt Ryan and Drew Brees are their offense’s engines, and the two have combined for three 300+ yard performances through two weeks. With such iffy pass defenses across the field, both make for fine cash plays – we should see downfield strikes and short touchdown passes erupting from this box score. Ryan boasts the week’s best dark zone projection, while Brees sits tied for fourth-best, and both should certainly approach or exceed the 300-yard bonus. In cash contests, I lean toward Ryan, who will come a bit cheaper and likely with higher ownership to follow.

Speaking of high ownership, expect to see Ryan Tannehill in the teens or 20s. He comes fairly cheaply, and he faces the Browns. Now, the Browns’ defensive ineptitude has been overstated – they’re not allowing much by way of passing yards, and their four allowed touchdowns is an interesting mark though not a juicy one. But what boosts Tannehill’s value is the fact that the Cleveland offense, shaky to begin with, has crashed into the mountain. Two of its top three playmaking receivers are out, and they’re down to their No. 3 quarterback, green rookie Cody Kessler, to take the snaps. That’s a recipe for a game rife with short, unsuccessful Browns drives and turnovers, one that would set up Tannehill with plenty of statistical opportunity. And the Dolphins have little running game to lean on for clock purposes; they often use the pass, specifically through slot man Jarvis Landry, as an extension of the run. Tannehill could win this game by 14+ points and still throw 30-35 passes, making his 18.6-point cash-game marker seem very realistic.

I’m a bit torn between my next two cash options. Carson Palmer faces a swirling-the-drain Bills defense that’s allowed 9.4 yards per attempt and 11 completions of 20+ yards thus far, while Matthew Stafford takes on a similarly struggling Packers secondary that was lit ablaze by (of all people) Sam Bradford last week. Of the two, though, I prefer Stafford. He projects to better volume, his game is likely to be close for longer than Palmer’s, he runs the ball (a little), and he comes at a $400 discount. Not to mention, Stafford won’t be competing with much of a backfield for offensive supremacy. I wouldn’t fault either pick, though, for DFSers that don’t trust Ryan and don’t want to pay up for Brees.

GPP Options

Marcus Mariota’s production indeed goes up and down, but “up” is definitely worth a GPP dice roll this week. He actually projects to lead Week 3 passers in dark zone attempts; he’s converted 3 of his 7 throws thus far into touchdowns, and the Raiders’ shaky pass defense has been challenged near the goal line as much as anyone. If he does decide to uncork a deep ball or two, he’ll do it against a secondary that’s been scorched through two weeks, giving up a league-high 13 completions of 20+ yards. Mariota makes for an awesome combination of salary relief and sneaky upside.

Andrew Luck will be without Donte Moncrief Sunday, leaving his receiving arsenal razor-thin. But I’m not overly worried, and I’m generally fine with rolling him out in a tournament, while gobs of DFSers ignore him for safer options. What they don’t realize is just how safe Luck’s Week 3 outlook really is, with or without Moncrief. Luck is a volume king, and he projects in my model to lead all Week 3 passers in attempts. Facing a burnable Chargers defense, Luck would likely ride 40-45 attempts to cash-game pay dirt – and he always, always carries solid 4x scoring potential.

Running Back

Cash Considerations

Let it be known that I’m not necessarily on board with DeMarco Murray or Isaiah Crowell, despite their high rankings in my projections. It’s one of the byproducts of just two weeks’ worth of data – Murray’s two Week 1 touchdown receptions and Crowell’s 85-yard run skew their numbers wildly. I won’t own any of either this week.

Just like last week, both C.J. Anderson and DeAngelo Williams are squarely in play as the week’s top cash pick. Both are matchup-proof bell cows with exceptionally high floors, and both are capable each week of dominating their respective team’s offenses. I prefer Williams slightly; he showed last week that he can excel on the stat sheet even in a fairly pass-heavy week (nearly as many carries, 32, as Ben Roethlisberger had pass attempts, 37). He’s a focal point and is leaned on for possessions at a time, and he’s the only Week 3 RB to outright project beyond 100 rush yards. His matchup with a porous Eagles run defense just makes him that much sexier. That said, I lean (slightly) toward Anderson this week – and not for the modest $200 discount. Cincinnati has also struggled against the run, and Anderson will not only see the Broncos’ highest all-game opportunity share – he’ll also get first crack or so in the dark zone, where he’s converted 3 of his 5 attempts into touchdowns. You want at least one of them in your cash lineups, and there’s no wrong answer here.

Melvin Gordon will likely see even a little more chalkiness (higher ownership) than those two. But while his floor looks great following Danny Woodhead’s injury, he’s not the ultra-confident cash call they are. I do like Gordon’s talent and future, and he projects fairly well as the backfield chairman going forward. Last year, in his only two games seeing 50%+ of Chargers snaps, he racked up 24 looks (carries plus targets) both times. It’s just that, with Gordon, we’re looking at 24 looks as his sheer upside, but a fair median expectation for Anderson or Williams. That means a similar ceiling, but less of a floor. The question, of course, is whether that dip is likely to matter as much as his $1,500-1,700 discount. Considering his matchup with the woebegone Colts defense, I’m inclined to say yes: pocket the savings and roster Gordon.

Staying on the higher-salaried end, I’d say you’re unlikely to regret rostering Matt Forte in cash contests. I won’t be on board with this price tag for much longer, as I expect some volume regression is on the way. But until that day comes, Forte projects to as much usage as anyone. He projects to take 26 carries and catch an easy 3-5 balls, and while that’s an awfully high number to project, it shows how impressive his weekly floor is right now. If you’re looking to follow a little less chalk than Anderson, Williams, or Gordon offer, he’s your man.

GPP Options

The world has turned and left Spencer Ware here; his ownership levels plummeted from Week 1 to Week 2, and should stay similarly low this week. I’ll be pouncing. Ware looks like a victim of #NarrativeStreet – last week, he lost both starting guards and faced an imposing Texans defense, so DFSers stayed away in droves. Ultimately, his volume took a noticeable hit, but he remained insanely efficient with his touches (5.7 yards per rush, 48 yards on 3 targets). And while his team hardly sniffed the red zone, Ware remains in line for most of their short-yardage work. If we can expect similar rushing/receiving results and project him to another 100 scrimmage yards, we’re in the range where just one touchdown would shove him into GPP value. Don’t turn your back on such an efficient lead back, especially when his price and ownership are depressed.

DFS players will flock to Theo Riddick this week, who’s been talked up by analysts as the Lions’ new No. 1 back. But that’s simply not realistic; Riddick has never taken more than 11 rushes in any of his 40 games, and he’s only topped 7 once. Even if his rushing load sees a small bump, he’s an absurdly ineffective runner (a career 3.2 yards per rush) who will absolutely be flanked by some real rushing help. As of Thursday, the top in-house candidate is rookie Dwayne Washington, who’s priced at just $3,600 and makes gobs of sense as a contrarian play. Washington has looked dynamic across 6 early-season rushes (32 yards and a goal line touchdown) and could conceivably hit 4x value in the third quarter. Note: The ghost of Joique Bell worked out for the team this week and may sign. If he does, Washington becomes strictly a play for the biggest and baddest of GPP contests.

Jerick McKinnon will draw a ton of DFS attention with Adrian Peterson out, but Matt Asiata is the shrewder DFS play. When the two shared the backfield in the exact same boat in 2014, Asiata finished seventh in the league in dark zone rushes, producing 9 touchdowns along the way. Asiata is the bruiser, the closer, and an option on some passing downs, and he carries more TD potential than McKinnon. He’s a great deep-GPP play at the minimum RB salary.

Wide Receiver

Cash Considerations

In terms of Week 3 value, there’s Stefon Diggs, then there’s everyone else. To say that Diggs has excelled thus far is an understatement – he’s caught 80% of his targets at a 17.8-yard clip, and he’s tied for second league-wide in catches of 20+ yards. Against Green Bay especially, Diggs looked like a true NFL No. 1 wideout. His draft position was nothing special, but don’t forget he was a consensus five-star recruit to Maryland. He can absolutely play; if anyone can make Sam Bradford look dynamic in primetime football, you have to take notice. His matchup with the Panthers isn’t as daunting as it seems, and even if it were, this is far too low of a price for a downfield dynamo who absolutely dominates his offense’s target share. He needs to be a staple of your lineups, both cash and GPP, until his price adjusts.

Kelvin Benjamin is back and then some; he’s silenced critics (like me) who have long derided his inefficiency and disappearing acts. Through two games, he’s reasserted his dominance of the Panthers passing game, drawing 28.8% of team targets. He’s been golden down the field and in the red zone, so he could produce touchdowns at a top-tier level all year. The Vikings defense is formidable, but without rising star cornerback Xavier Rhodes, they’ll need a phenomenal game to keep Benjamin in check. He’s arguably a top-five play, one who may not cost less than $7,500 for long.

It's only been two weeks, but thus far, Marvin Jones has laid to rest any ideas of Golden Tate dominating the offense. It’s been Jones who has stepped up post-Calvin Johnson, drawing a studly 26.6% of Lions targets and produced a robust 9.7 yards per look. The Packers are a week removed from being eviscerated by Sam Bradford, so I have few worries about their profile against Matthew Stafford. I expect a high-scoring affair, meaning any clear No. 1 wideout makes for a strong cash play. Jones’ salary, still a bit too low at $6,200, fits the bill perfectly.

Donte Moncrief is shelved, so second-year speedster Phillip Dorsett is picking up the slack. He’s certainly electric, with 5 of his 23 career catches going for 20+ yards. But most importantly, he’s likely looking at serious Week 3 volume. In a high-paced matchup with the Chargers, Andrew Luck projects to throw more passes than anyone in football, and this is a razor-thin receiving corps. Dorsett will sit behind T.Y. Hilton and possibly the team’ tight ends in the pecking order, but that’s enough of a role to deliver at least 6-8 targets. Dorsett is the type of low-cost option who could turn 1-2 of those into huge plays and bring home very easy 3x (or 4x) value.

I’m understandably leery about paying the wild salaries of the Big Three wideouts, so I’ve spent the week examining the guys with Tier 2 and Tier 3 costs. To me, Kelvin Benjamin is the way to go, but Hilton and Jordan Matthews also fit the equation. Hilton, as explained above, should see at least a modest volume boost in Moncrief’s absence. And the fact that he’ll suit up in such a highly projected matchup makes him even sexier; Hilton could threaten some of his career’s top yardage totals. Matthews, however, looks like the safer play, also projecting well in a pace-up game with the Steelers. He’s boasting the third-highest target share in football as rookie Carson Wentz’s top option, and he’ll test his wares against a shaky secondary that’s allowed 329 and 366 passing yards.

GPP Options

It’s been a quiet two weeks for the Big Three, and it’s hard to justify their costs. The good news is that none look to be highly owned, considering their slow starts and the cavalcade of value down the salary chart. That, combined with Odell Beckham Jr’s small discount within the top tier, makes him a GPP target. He’s matchup-proof, of course, and has been seeing a dominant target share, in addition to strong red zone work. It’s a smart idea to diversify your lineups by devoting a small portion to a Beckham-based roster, stuffed with the various low-dollar values at other positions. Landing a trademark Beckham performance at ownership under 5% would put you in prime position to take down a tournament.

There’s been a fair amount of doom-and-gloom around Tyler Lockett, who continues to trail Jermaine Kearse in snaps and has yet to be unleashed. But last week, we might have seen the kickoff. Lockett missed half the Rams game with an injury, but He was utilized both downfield (deep catches of 53 and 35 yards) and underneath, and it looks as though he’s ready to claim a prominent role. What’s great about Lockett is that he’s versatile and fully capable of manufacturing fantasy production. He fits into multiple points of the gameplan and returns some kicks, so a big Lockett game could come from anywhere.

Stop me if you heard this too many times around 2011, but Kenny Britt is worth a GPP look. He’s (very) quietly created plays for the pitiful Rams offense, and he boasts good small-sample efficiency. With 10 catches through five games, Britt is the team’s first non-gadget volume success story in years. And despite his impressive start, he’s unlikely to see more than 3-5% ownership as DFSers avoid the Rams in droves. He needs just 15.6 points for tournament value, so if he keeps catching this rate of balls, either a touchdown or 100 yards would do the trick. I won’t ask you to trust Case Keenum, but that opportunity level is very reachable as a 5.5-point underdog.

Cole Beasley is in one of his occasional, brief runs of fantasy utility. With a rookie quarterback under center, the Cowboys have simplified the playbook and leaned heavily on slot man Beasley to run quick-hitting routes. He’s responded with 8- and 5-catch games, so he’s earned a tournament look. Chicago’s defense is a shambles, so Beasley could see a ton of room underneath.

In a similar vein, Jamison Crowder deserves a look. He’s been seeing over 20% of Kirk Cousins’ targets, and while he’s not a downfield threat, he brings sneaky dark zone potential (9 targets through 18 career games). With DeSean Jackson’s status uncertain, Crowder could be in line for a solid PPR day. My projections give him 6 catches, which looks fairly conservative.

Tight End

Cash Considerations

So, Trey Burton finally arrived on the scene last week. For those who haven’t followed him, Burton is a dynamic “move” tight end in the vein of fellow ex-Florida Gators Jordan Reed and Aaron Hernandez. His athleticism and versatility have been hidden for years, but Zach Ertz’s injury paves the path for another start. And it could be another strong one – the Steelers tend to flounder against TEs, with Lawrence Timmons especially a frequent burn victim over the middle. Burton will likely play much of the matchup in a negative or neutral script, in a game already paced up by the Steelers offense. Still priced at the TE minimum, he’s one of the week’s easier value plays.

Having risen from the ashes of a multitude of devastating lower-body injuries, Dennis Pitta has re-emerged atop the Baltimore depth chart. It wasn’t especially hard – Maxx Williams and Crockett Gillmore look very average – but Pitta’s role as Joe Flacco’s security blanket is very real and very valuable. The two made beautiful music in 2012 (61 receptions and 7 touchdowns across 94 targets) and seem to have picked up where they left off. Pitta leads a crowded group of pass-catchers with 16 targets (20.5% of the team’s looks), 12 catches, and 141 yards. Given his too-low $3,400 salary, he doesn’t even need to find the end zone to deliver easy cash value. The salary relief at play here is irresistible.

Delanie Walker was priced far too low last week ($4,500) in reaction to a near-invisible Week 1, and that’s corrected somewhat – he’ll cost $5,000 this Sunday. But he’s fully worth it. He remains the Titans’ 1B option in the progression, and the Raiders are notoriously weak at defending tight ends. They gave up 11 touchdowns to the position last year (15.4 DraftKings points per week), then allowed a 5-75-1 line to the plodding Jacob Tamme last week. (It’s astoundingly rare to find Tamme in the end zone.) Walker’s 6-target, 6-catch Week 2, as well as his impressive 30-yard touchdown catch, reminded us of his stable role toward the very front of a high-volume passing attack. He’s still underpriced in relation to the top-dollar tight ends, despite carrying a similar weekly outlook.

GPP Options

Our Ryan Hester has pounded the table this week for Clive Walford, noting that the Titans have allowed 4 catches and 50+ yards to both mid-level tight ends they’ve faced thus far. Walford was talked up by coaches through the offseason as a guy who needed more work, and he saw it last week, with 6 receptions on 7 targets. He’s still priced far too low and should be a GPP staple.

The Giants defense has been suffocating through two games. That, plus Jordan Reed’s hefty price tag, will likely drive down his ownership markedly this week. But note that New York has yet to face an elite tight end, and that their huge offseason influx didn’t include much talent at the linebacker and safety spots. Reed posted two big lines last year (6-96, 8-98) against the Giants’ iffy linebackers and safeties; in fact, only the Saints allowed more DraftKings points to TEs. If you add a touchdown to that kind of production, Reed would land squarely in range of tournament value. Speaking of paying up: Greg Olsen’s projections up there look awesome, but I tend to think of that as an absolute ceiling. He’s also a stronger GPP play than a cash one, considering the massive volume available at dirt-cheap costs.

Defense/Special Teams

Cash Considerations

The Dolphins take on Cody Kessler and the Browns. They’ll be highly owned, and likely won’t be able to help stumbling into their share of sacks and turnovers. The Vikings take on Cam Newton and the Panthers, but they’ve been relentless at creating sacks (7, tied for second in the league) and forcing turnovers (7, first). As a result, they’re a fine call for cash or tournament contests. Chasing low-scoring matchups as your primary method of choosing a D/ST is a fool’s game; you want to pursue sacks and turnovers, which are generally more predictable. That also puts the Seahawks into play. They’re expensive, and they’ve yet to record a takeaway, but that just suggests to me that the dam is about to burst. This aggressive, dynamic defense should make mincemeat out of Blaine Gabbert and the 49ers.

GPP Options

The Eagles are a sneaky play. They’ve been solid in both sacks and takeaways, and they host a Steelers offense that’s more prone to poor play and turnovers on the road. I’ll probably also trot out at least one lineup using the Rams. They’re pricier than most GPP defenses I use, but Jameis Winston and the Buccaneers have coughed up a league-high 6 turnovers.

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