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Throughout the 2016 DFS season, I’ll be informing you on each week’s DraftKings player pool. My game is cost efficiency: how do I maximize my $50M allotment? You won’t catch me merely telling you who the highest-scoring plays will be. That’s a silly undertaking, and it’s a battery of opinions you could find at any DFS site. What I’ll be looking into in this column is value – cost efficiency, to be specific. To do that, I’ll be utilizing a few different measures (starting in Week 3):
DK Points (DK Pts) is the player’s DraftKings projection for the week, rooted in the offense’s and defense’s performances over the last three weeks. (For the first few weeks, the model fills the gaps with my per-game projections for each player.) Please note that the goal of these projections is NOT to predict an exact point total; I’m not interested in supernaturally conjuring visions of Le’Veon Bell’s next 30-point explosion. Rather, I’m keeping a tight view of a player’s capabilities and seeking the likely outcome of his matchup – in a sense, I’m seeking out his probabilities of reaching a certain scoring level.
Points per thousand (Pts/$1K) divides the player’s projected DraftKings points by $1,000 to arrive at an efficiency statement on his projection. A number of 3.00 or better suggests a must-play option poised to soar beyond his salary, while one landing below 1.75 or so hints at an overpriced option.
H-Value (DK H-Val) is an attempt to reconcile a player’s scoring projection with his per-dollar value. This is what Footballguys’ top projectors – think David Dodds, Maurile Tremblay, etc. – utilize in crafting their plays. They know you can’t fill a lineup with exclusively high-salaried players, and you’d never load up on just cheap, low-ceiling options. H-value brings the two together, marrying a player’s projected scoring and salary to lay out his true meaning to a DFS roster. The formula is simple:
(DK Pts^1.73205 / DK Sal) * 2,000
As I mentioned, at the moment, I don’t have any 2016 data. So for the first two weeks, I’ll be basing these calls on my offseason projections for the 2016 season.
My Week 1 plays:
Quarterback
Cash Considerations
Drew Brees will be mighty chalky this week, which makes sense. He matches up with a Raiders defense that gives up oodles of air yardage in a game Vegas places at 50.5 points. Brees is a yardage king with a talented supporting cast capable of producing touchdowns. It’s perfectly safe to follow the chalk – and the sky-high projections.
There’s concern over Russell Wilson’s game script as a 10.5-point favorite, but not too much. The Seahawks offense has reached the point that, if the defense is protecting a hefty lead, it’s typically because Wilson’s numbers have put him there. Even in a surprising shootout, the Dolphins’ shaky-looking defense shouldn’t provide much by way of answers for offense with this many weapons. An efficient producer likely to live in the Dolphins red zone, Wilson could hit cash value in the third quarter.
I won’t knock the idea of rolling out Dak Prescott in cash games. With his starting spot and minimum salary, he’ll be very highly owned, and chasing high ownership numbers is a solid strategy in cash. But it seems unlikely Prescott will provide much beyond salary relief. It’s rare we see a rookie QB unshackled and free to create big plays in his first start, especially for a rookie from the middle rounds. He could excel, but it’s not a wise wager, especially with value at QB this week. There’s little GPP appeal here.
GPP Options
Robert Griffin III III may not seem likely to last 16 games as a starter, but that’s obviously not our concern. At present, he’s in a one-game scenario against a rebuilding Eagles team that will turn the ball over and struggle to sustain drives. Griffin looked shaky this preseason, but also dynamic and aggressive, dialing up numerous deep balls (most of them successful) to his young, athletic receivers. There will always be turnover, benching, and injury risk inherent to rostering Griffin, but in the right matchups, he can be truly explosive and a major GPP boon. That price tag offers you a ton of flexibility.
Few DFSers are likely to be interested in the Buffalo-Baltimore matchup, but there’s ample GPP appeal. In Tyrod Taylor’s first season as a starter, he was aggressive and efficient, producing huge plays at an elite rate. The Bills tied for 6th in the NFL in yards per play last year and actually tied for the lead in touchdown passes of 20+ yards. A healthy Sammy Watkins and a date with a taped-together Ravens secondary looks like prime ground for a continuation of that. And besides, Taylor’s ceiling and floor are inherently boosted by his elite rushing projections. On the other side of the field, Joe Flacco will be overlooked – as he was in season-long drafts – due to a lack of sexiness. But based on recent Ravens history, he’s in line for eye-popping volume for such a cheap QB. Given the team’s semi-rebuilding mode and, I actually project Flacco to attempt more throws this week than anyone not named Drew Brees. Extremely aggressive in his own right and armed with capable receivers and deep threats, Flacco is in fine position to reach the 26.8 points he’ll need for tournament value. He hit or approached that mark six times in his 10 games last year, after all.
Running Back
Cash Considerations
There’s a ton of value in the cheap new starters up and down the pricing models this week, and cash players need to take advantage. Some look like no-brainers: Spencer Ware and Christine Michael, for example, are promising young talents with strong touchdown outlooks and facing sexy matchups. Both provide serious salary relief, and both should certainly meet cash value. But Michael looks like the slightly stronger choice. He’s expected to see less volume due to Thomas Rawls’ return, but all we know is there will be a carry split – not that he’ll touch the ball less. Meanwhile, his Seahawks face a better game script and boast a stronger Vegas total. Besides, Seahawks RBs averaged 23.9 rushes per game last season, while Kansas City backs not named Jamaal Charles notched 21.5 when given the reins. Don’t forget: Ware will share the rushes with a running quarterback, as well. In any event, it makes some sense to roster both in a cash lineup, chasing both floor and ceiling while falling in line with the chalk.
On the higher end of the spectrum, it’s hard to go wrong with most of the top options. Adrian Peterson isn’t quite the no-brainer he seems – running games often lose efficiency (and even volume) with big quarterback downgrades – but the Vikings seem stable enough to trust. There’s no telling what that game script will be, but the Titans defense is ugly enough to expect Peterson will find room with whatever volume he gets, and few backs have better red zone outlooks. Still, I don’t like investing this much in RBs that lack great receiving profiles.
Rather, I’ll take a noticeable discount for Devonta Freeman. Call him any name you want – plodding, boring, a seatwarmer for Tevin Coleman – but I’ll point to his utterly dominant 2015 workload all day. Few backs in today’s league see his kind of three-down volume. It says at least something that Coleman failed to not only threaten Freeman’s load once both were healthy last year; Coleman was barely a blip in the backfield “rotation.” Freeman was simply too dependable as an interior runner and too efficient with his eye-popping receiving volume. He was also among the league’s most utilized weapons in the red zone, so his touchdown outlook is always strong. Coleman may eat into the pie as the year wears on, but I love this price tag for a clear and yet-to-be-threatened volume king.
Theo Riddick’s tiny price tag seems odd and out-of-place on DraftKings. Fresh off an 80-catch season, Riddick looks primed for a similar workload in 2016. He drew 5+ targets in 7 of the team’s 9 games under new coordinator Jim Bob Cooter, and even saw increased rushing opportunity after the change. Few backs in football have more stable, predictable roles and week-to-week outlooks than Riddick. In a likely shootout with the Colts, I expect to see him on the field for roughly half the Lions’ snaps, and his 12-point cash game marker seems more like a floor than a midlevel projection.
GPP Options
In that vein, Charles Sims’ role is a little less dependable, but he seems wildly underpriced in PPR formats. He can’t be pegged as merely a passing-down back, averaging 7 high-impact rushes per game last year in addition to his elite receiving production. He’s not merely a dump-off target; his receptions tend to produce very solid yardage. Sims’ career 10.7 yards per catch is sterling and provides a more attractive ceiling than most receiving specialists.
We know (probably) that Justin Forsett will start for Baltimore, but how the backfield shakes out is probably yet to be determined. We know for certain that coordinator Marc Trestman utilizes his RBs heavily in the passing game, and that Forsett and Terrance West are both among the league’s least efficient receiving backs. There’s a decent chance the passing down work falls to 2015 dynamo Javorius Allen, who drew 5+ targets six times after Forsett’s midseason injury. In fact, if we extrapolated Allen’s Weeks 10-16 into a full season, he’d project to a Riddick-like 85 catches – but with far more rushing chops. I’d rather wait a week to see where the Ravens backfield is right now, but Allen’s miniscule Week 1 salary makes him a high-upside GPP play.
It’s always nice to zig while the rest of the world zags – when it pans out, that is. And few iffy Week 1 plays face better situations than Thomas Rawls. The week’s news has headlined Rawls’ expected snap restriction against the Dolphins, but even with shaky volume, Rawls is still capable of a massive game. As a 10.5-point favorite against a very shaky defense, Rawls could flirt with GPP value on just 10-12 touches, and a more substantial workload would vault him into the stratosphere. He’s an expensive dice roll, but could make a huge difference in deep GPPs, so file him away. If he appears fully healthy this weekend, that is.
Wide Receiver
Cash Considerations
Don’t overthink Julio Jones this week: he’s in a pristine spot, and there are no real reasons to fade him. Generally unaffected by bracket coverage, he scorched the Buccaneers for lines of 12-162-1 and 8-93 last year. It’s hard to go wrong with either megastud, but Jones is the stronger cash play. He’ll be more owned and carries a slightly better floor.
Marvin Jones really comes in cheaply; enjoy it while it lasts. I’m not of the belief that he’ll usurp Golden Tate in usage, but this salary is far too low. Jones is priced behind unknown rookies and marginal talents from bad offenses. The Lions enjoyed one of their most efficient stretches ever under new coordinator Cooter, and it’s safe to assume passing volume will be there in a likely shootout with the Colts. Sporadically an elite yardage and touchdown producer – by rates, if not counts – Jones should easily meet his 13.8-point cash marker. That kind of salary relief is invaluable.
Allen Robinson isn’t the best cash option this week. He faces a solid Packers secondary, one that was especially stingy in allowing deep passes last year, which could limit his production. But Robinson has developed into such a multi-faceted threat that he’s nearly matchup-proof. Last year, he was the NFL’s premier weapon both down the field (a league-high 31 receptions of 20+ yards) and in the dark zone (10 touchdowns on 18 targets). He looks poised to build on his reception count (5 per game last year), and that should kick into motion this week, as a moderate underdog in a game Vegas expects to produce 47+ points. It all comes down to value, and Robinson comes in at an appropriate $8,300. He won’t be that cheap most weeks.
GPP Options
Novices will likely stray from Jarvis Landry in his tangle with the Seahawks secondary, but shrewd players realize the value of a slot extraordinaire in this type of game. Ryan Tannehill, already fairly gun-shy about testing defenses downfield, will likely look to Landry to create any semblance of offensive movement they’re hoping for. Landry closed 2015 on a tear, posting huge PPR lines against strong secondaries, primarily as a heavy underdog. As Tannehill’s security blanket, Landry failed to reach 12 targets only twice after Week 9. Indeed, 24 points is a fairly tall order for a small-ball specialist like Landry. But a 9- or 10-catch performance should do the trick, and there’s untapped touchdown upside here. Landry actually saw nearly twice the dark zone work (targets from inside the 10-yard line) that A.J. Green did last year.
The Dolphins’ other starter, Kenny Stills, is also worth a GPP look, if only due to DraftKings’ early pricing model that didn’t account for him being in the lineup. When prices were released, second-year supposed phenom DeVante Parker was healthy and hyped as a clear breakout target. But since then, he’s missed most of the team’s time with strains of both hamstrings, and he’s very unlikely to see much, if any, early-season time. Stills will start and play most snaps, and while his matchup doesn’t inspire confidence, his salary does. Just 12.8 points will produce tournament value, and the dynamic deep threat always carries upside for more.
While Jordy Nelson hogs the headlines (and rightfully so), Randall Cobb hogs the short touchdowns. Cobb’s 2015 was wholly forgettable, but he continued his stretch of sterling dark zone play. In fact, dating back to 2012, he’s destroyed Nelson in both efficiency and touchdown production from inside the 10. Against Jacksonville, he’ll face a bottom-10 defense from 2015 in terms of preventing short TD passes. Cobb isn’t especially cheap, but he boasts similar upside to several names ahead of him.
Tight End
Cash Considerations
While the fantasy world is again smitten with Jared Cook, many still wring their hands over his floor. I’m not entirely sure why. It’s true the Packers tend to overload Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb with targets, and that tight ends have been a marginal complement of late. But Aaron Rodgers hasn’t thrown to a TE beyond a replacement-level talent since 2012. And when he did pair for two years with Jermichael Finley, he utilized his TEs heavily. In fact, he threw more to Finley than anyone else inside the 10 from 2011-12. Rodgers and Cook made a quick connection in camp, and it seems clear that Cook has not only surpassed Richard Rodgers on the first team – he’s been woven into the offense. Cook took the lion’s share of first-team snaps in the Packers’ preseason dress rehearsal, drawing 5 targets across his 19 plays. That game was a continuation of a training camp that saw Cook involved heavily down the seams and in the red zone. You don’t need me to tell you what it means to be a priority player in this Packers offense. In any event, Cook is priced low enough that floor isn’t really a worry. His salary only requires 8.7 points to cash, and that seems like his floor for scoring potential. He’s a punt that isn’t really a punt, and his real 15- or 20-point upside makes him the week’s premier TE play.
GPP Options
For similar reasons, Cameron Brate looks like a sneaky tournament play. Presumed immortal Austin Seferian-Jenkins is fresh off another head-scratching offseason, complete with tantrums and benchings, and looks just as likely to be released or traded as he is to start again. At the same time, Brate has emerged as a preferred target of Jameis Winston on all levels of the field. There’s plenty of red zone appeal here, as Winston connected with his TEs for 8 touchdowns on just 100 targets. As a starter with strong TD potential, Brate makes for a fine TE punt at a microscopic cost.
He may not suit up Sunday, and if he does, Jimmy Graham isn’t looking at a very high ownership rate this week. He’s not fully recovered from knee surgery, and the Seahawks seem to have found a Graham-less groove in the passing game. That’s not to mention that they’re 10.5-point favorites. But all of that adds up to a nice week to pounce if he’s active. He’s a fine contrarian stab at a big game – he commanded a whopping 23.5% of Seattle targets before his 2015 injury, and few receivers are in Graham’s league in terms of playmaking potential. Priced well for a GPP stab, Graham needs 15.2 points to bring value, which is doable in this revamped Seahawks offense.
Along the same lines, I’m watching Rob Gronkowski’s injury status closely. He’ll also see low ownership, lacking Tom Brady and contending more with his backup for targets than he has in years. But assuming he suits up Sunday, I’m looking to capitalize. His cost is manageable, priced like a mid-level wide receiver but with the easy weekly upside of an A.J. Green or a Keenan Allen. I’m confident Jimmy Garoppolo will look his way plenty, and the Patriots’ likely game flow (on the road against a top-tier opponent) suggests he’ll be running routes for four quarters. Keep monitoring his health over the weekend and be prepared to roster him, assuming he’s not restricted. If he’s out, you can always pivot to Martellus Bennett or Jordan Reed.
Defense/Special Teams
Cash Considerations
It’s too early to know much about these units – year-to-year consistency is hard to come by on this side of the ball. But I’m confident Kansas City can handle the Chargers, so I’ll call them a solid (not great) cash play. Philip Rivers & Co. managed all of 6 total points in their two meetings last year, coughing up 3 turnovers and 8 sacks. Few defenses dominated to their level last year, and they have the depth to withstand Justin Houston’s absence.
I don’t think much of Jimmy Garoppolo; I didn’t like the prospect, and I don’t expect to see much success over these first four weeks. That’s why Arizona looks like such a strong play. The Patriots will likely have to put the ball into the air more often than they’d prefer, and an attacking Cardinals defense can capitalize.
GPP Options
The Giants look poised to be a sack-heavy unit in 2016, with Jason Pierre-Paul a year removed from injury and new acquisition Olivier Vernon in tow. I always look at defenses facing first-start quarterbacks, and while Dak Prescott looked promising this preseason, his fit in the Cowboys’ downhill, light-shotgun offense is in its early stages. I’m expecting enough mistakes – and a slow enough general pace – to keep Dallas’ offensive production low. And the Giants come especially cheaply this week.
I also like teeing off against unprepared or bad veteran QBs, of course, and Minnesota has one of each in the mix to start Sunday. That turnover potential, combined with their snail’s pace, makes their early-season opponents attractive – even the Titans. Theirminisculesalary makes for a shrewd GPP stab.
