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SFB7 Running Diary I

Snapshots from the early rounds of our staff's Scott Fish Bowl VII discussion

Yes, #SFB7 has been dominating your Twitter feed. If you're involved, or merely following the action, you know it's Scott Fish Bowl 7 (SFB7) that we're all discussing. With 13 of us individual Footballguys participating, it was only a matter of time until we started talking SFB7 heavily at the e-watercooler. And the floodgates have opened; Scott Fish's never-boring format has us FBGs joining brains and poring over the wild scoring/lineup requirements, as well as the wonky ADPs that it creates. In the process, we've churned out a lot of interesting overall (non-SFB) discussion, and we wanted to pass as much of it as we can manage along to all of you.

As the draft opened, we fell into a free-flowing chat that was primarily centered around the nuts and bolts of SFB football: the quarterback and tight end positions. They're heavily boosted by Scott's unconventional format (superflex, with 2.5x the production scoring for TEs), so it throws all typical ADP and value data right into the river.

Early-Round Discussions: Quarterbacks, Tight Ends, and Everything In-Between

Justin Howe 5:09pm 

So from the 7-hole, I've opened up Gordon / Kelce.

Phil Alexander 5:10pm

Nice start. I'm hoping Kelce will be there for me at the 2-3 turn but doubt it

N/M he just went 2.05

Dan Hindery 5:11pm

Kelce is a great 2nd round target in this format. He went 3.01 in mine. I almost took him at 2.11, but Russ Wilson fell and I wanted a running QB. They get a little boost with the points for rushing first downs

Dan Hindery 5:11pm

Kelce is a great 2nd round target in this format. He went 3.01 in mine. I almost took him at 2.11, but Russ Wilson fell and I wanted a running QB. They get a little boost with the points for rushing first downs

Justin Howe 5:11pm 

Great point Dan, that's why I'm hoping for Wilson to fall in 3 more than Luck or Brees

Nm, Brees just went. Wilson will be soon to follow I'm sure

Not even sure someone like Mariota or Jameis will fall to me in 3. I may punt until 4 and 5.

Ryan Hester 5:14pm

Wow, I thought I was making a smart move taking Kelce at 1.12 (Gronk went 1.10), but it seems like I'm the idiot here.

I took Kelce-D.Murray at my turn.

Justin Howe 5:15pm 

Not really, Ryan. Kelce is honestly just a nose behind Gronk, so as soon as he went, Kelce was sure to go right behind just on visual bias (seeing that TE breaks the seal).

Dan Hindery 5:15pm

Mariota fell to early 4th in mine (we were flying then hit a wall mid-4). 

Daniel Simpkins 5:15pm

I'm really struggling with Tyrod vs. Rivers. The running first down bump is nice, but can he match Rivers in yardage and TDs? Hard to think so.

Dan Hindery 5:16pm

I have Tyrod in a group tied for 12th 

Ryan Hester 5:17pm

Daniel I rarely consider 6pt vs. 4pt pass TDs because on a weekly basis, the delta is so minute and hardly impactful, but the scoring may give Rivers the nod there.

Dan Hindery 5:18pm

That's a tough one Daniel. my numbers like Tyrod and he was the 13th highest scoring player overall last year, but how much do you trust him? 

Jason Wood 5:18pm

Fun so far, feel very fortunate to have Ajayi sitting there in the 3rd for me. I haven't taken a QB yet three rounds in, by design. Let's see what scraps are left at the 4/5 turn for me.

Ryan Hester 5:19pm

amazing how different these drafts are...Ajayi went 1.09 in mine

Daniel Simpkins 5:19pm

Ajayi was gone in mid first of mine, Jason.

Ari Ingel 5:19pm

Ryan, perhaps just how QBs finished, adding in 6 pts for TD and rushing 1st downs? Love to see how high Tyrod finishes.

Ajayi in the 3rd? oh man.

Justin Howe 5:20pm 

That's nuts Ari 

Justin Bonnema 5:20pm

Ajayi went 1.06 in mine. 

Dan Hindery 5:21pm

Tyrod was QB11 last year in this format.  Rivers was QB10. Bunch of guys packed in that 22-24 PPG range at QB last year.

Jason Wood 5:22pm

Winston/Rivers/Carr/Ryan remain on the board, I'm hoping one of them falls to me at 4.12

Justin Howe 5:23pm 

That's why I might sit that tier out. Take a stab at that as a ceiling a round or two later. Hoping Dalton is sitting there a round after that QB run.

Jason Wood 5:23pm

If not, I'll go for an Eli/Dak/Stafford combo hopefully (two of the three)

Daniel Simpkins 5:24pm

Mine seems so QB crazy that I question what will be there at the 5/6 turn.

Dan Hindery 5:25pm

I just came on the clock at 4.11. DeAndre Hopkins, Doug Baldwin, Rivers, and Stafford top guys left. 

Was hoping for Marshawn or Mixon here, but both gone

Justin Howe 5:25pm 

I go Stafford there. Who's the top RB left?

Dan Hindery 5:26pm

carlos hyde

Justin Howe 5:27pm 

I say Stafford then

Ryan Hester 5:27pm

Stafford was QB5 in my draft - mid 2nd!

Daniel - Don't fall victim to a positional run if it means leaving the best player on the board. I have survived in this league with 3 guys I drafted after QB16 and been totally fine (in years where the rest the team wasn't decimated by injury).

You may also remember the many who doubted me last year in the staff league, when I skipped QB forever and just grabbed a QB-QB turn (I had 1st overall pick) really late. Do you guys who were in that league remember who won it? ;-)

Daniel Simpkins 5:27pm

Ryan, I may have a shot at Miller AND Marshawn here at the turn. Think I take that over taking Rivers or Tyrod? I do already have Wilson.

Ari Ingel 5:28pm

Daniel ... QB/RB sounds like the right move

Justin Bonnema 5:28pm

If it's any consolation, my team last year drafted Romo, Carr, Bradford and Paxton Lynch. I made a decent run in the playoffs.

Justin Howe 5:29pm 

I say Rivers and Miller, Daniel 

Wow.. Cam gone at 2.07. Luck, Wilson, Mariota still on the board.

Ryan Hester 5:33pm

Daniel, I would take 0 QBs there if I already had Wilson. Hell, I would probably take 0 QBs even if I DIDN'T have Wilson, so I may be the wrong guy to ask.

Ari Ingel 5:39pm

Ryan, Stafford & Cousins looking very good in this 

Waiting at QB until 3/4 was certainly way to go

Ryan Hester 5:42pm

Ari just be careful not to use that as gospel. Taking stats from the past to project the future is certainly not the best way of prognosticating.

Justin Bonnema 5:45pm

Daniel I agree with Ryan. Not sure you need a second QB yet. But it's also going to be dry by the time it gets back to you. 

Ari Ingel 5:45pm

No doubt ... but interesting to see guys like Stafford & Cousins who can be had late and should put up similar numbers this year, if not better sitting there into the 5th round per ADP. 

Justin Bonnema 5:46pm

I mean, you can survive with one good QB and playing waivers in this league. It's difficult but can be done. Don't have to start 2 if you're strong elsewhere. (crazy talk, I know)

Ryan Hester 5:46pm

QB never gets as dry the other positions - even in 2QB leagues. Guys like Flacco, Hoyer, perhaps even DeShaun Watson will all provide useable weeks.

Justin Bonnema 5:47pm

Wentz, Goff. It can be done. (pray for me)

Devin Knotts 5:48pm

I took Brady/Brees 1/2 turn don't regret it

Justin Bonnema 5:51pm

Devin that could carry your season.

Ryan Hester 5:56pm

Keep us posted on the rest of your team and if your level of regret changes 😉

Dan Hindery 6:17pm

I strongly considered waiting a long time on qb2 and going with sometging like hoyer and Watson. But ended up grabbing Dalton in the 5th instead

Justin Bonnema 6:21pm

If Mariota falls to me at 3.12, I'm going to be thrilled. Otherwise, I might take my chances on waiting for a QB until 5/6, which is scary.

Dan Hindery 6:24pm

Having a little QB run in round 5 of mine. Stafford, Rivers, Dalton, Tyrod, Wentz so far.

Daniel Simpkins 6:26pm

This feels like an auction in terms of predictability of picks. There's almost zero.

Ryan Hester 7:09pm

4 spots until my 3.12/4.01 turn. 8 QBs are gone (no one has 2). I estimate around 12 going between my 3/4 and 4/5. Dare I wait until QB20 to get my 1st? Anyone think that estimate of 12 is good?

Daniel Simpkins 7:15pm

Ryan, I don't feel good about waiting in this format. It's a little different because in our league, people waited enough on QBs you could get away with still getting one. Doesn't seem to be happening here.

I settled on Rivers/Olsen at the turn. Something in my gut just told me Miller and Marshawn weren't the right choices for my team.

Ryan Hester 7:23pm

Daniel, That's a fair point. It's situation-dependent. Since we've both now referenced it, I went and looked at last year's FESL Belichick draft. I took Carr-Tyrod as QB16-QB17 at 4.12/5.1.

I'm obviously big on waiting at the QB position, but it's easier to do with a mid-round pick as a safety net during a big run. QB20 being my first QB is something I'm not super excited about. If I could be guaranteed Palmer and Flacco, I'd do it for sure and just take both at my next turn. But that's not how this works!

Devin Knotts 7:26pm

That's why you take Brees/Brady at 12.13 and don't have to worry about it :D

Ryan Hester 7:26pm

I think there are bigger worries heading your way though!

Devin Knotts 7:29pm

Could have gone Beckham/Julio at 12/13

My league was weird: two tight ends in the first 11 picks, 1 qb, 1 WR, and 7 RB

Ryan Hester 7:30pm

Mine had two TE in the first 12 (with me taking Kelce after Gronk went 10th). You also could've taken 1 QB and 1 WR. I feel like WR is the least valuable position here, but that might be a rash judgement.

Daniel Simpkins 7:32pm

Nope, Ryan, WR is fungible here IMHO. For reference, Hilton and Michael Thomas are still here at 4.02 in this league.

Devin Knotts 7:32pm

agreed that's why I passed up those two WR, although I may regret it as there maybe an even bigger premium on a guy like Evans if he does what he did last year

Ryan Hester 7:44pm

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Here's a couple charts I put together based on the 2016 data sheet I sent earlier. Looks like WRs are - indeed - devalued. They start showing up after the top-50 and make up nearly HALF of the second 100 (i.e. 101-200).
 
Again, though, there's some caution to be exercised here. This data is based only on ONE year. And said year is a huge outlier in terms of RB success (lack of RB injuries last year was one for the record books) and WR success (conversely, WR injuries were actually a bit higher than normal last year).
 

Daniel Simpkins 7:58pm

15 QBs already off the board at 4.02 in my division... there may not be a huge difference in 4-20, but if you don't get one or two before they are all gone, then what?

Dan Hindery 7:59pm

Crazy run on QBs at the 5-6 turn in mine. Flacco, Palmer, Bortles, Bradford, Alex Smith gone by 6.03

Daniel Simpkins 8:00pm

I'm hoping I've maybe contributed to a QB\TE run after my picks that will leave some value on the board for me later.

Ari Ingel 8:04pm

9 QBs gone through 3.06 ... I have a feeling there will be 13 gone by my pick at 3.12

Devin Knotts 8:10pm

7 gone through 2.08 in mine

Daniel Simpkins 8:16pm

Sounds like you are on pace for what's happening in my league, Devin. Ari, you aren't far behind either.

Ari Ingel 8:25pm

Only 6 WRs gone by the end of the 3rd round ... so much value on the board, it might be too hard for me to pass up a guy like TY or Michael Thomas at the 3/4

Daniel Simpkins 8:27pm

Ari, it was extremely hard, but I think you'll have guys with the same sort of upside like Watkins fall. That's what I'm banking on anyway.

Justin Howe 8:32pm 

Yep.. I'll be stocking at WR from around 7-11 and playing high-ceiling most of the way. Figure Watkins, Manny, Davante, Snead, maybe Diggs should be around in 7, to kick things off.

Ari Ingel 8:39pm

It's not going to be pretty at RB. My draft is all RB, QB and 4 TEs gone. I'm looking at maybe Crowell or Lynch ... Crowell actually finished pretty well last year in this scoring system. Miller and Mixon gone. No Olson even. 

Justin Howe 8:44pm 

I'll likely be looking at a choice of Crowell v. Reed v. a Cousins type in Rd3

Ari Ingel 9:13pm

Marshawn even gone now ... looks like I will have Mariota, Cam, Stafford, or Carr available. If Crowell goes, I'm shifting to either Michael Thomas or Jimmy Graham as my other. Just don't see any value in the remaining RBs. In the end, should have probably gone with Murray and Freeman ... then had two solid QBs in the 3/4. Very unpredictable 

James Brimacombe 12:33am

Drafting RBs is brutal this year (minus the top 3)

Justin Bonnema 12:33am

I wish I would have gone QB/QB at the turn with the hope that it sparks a QB run and pushes RBs down

Daniel Simpkins 12:34am

Agreed, James. Trying to decide between Dalvin Cook, Carlos Hyde, Frank Gore, Eddie Lacy, or Mark Ingram II at 5.12 or 6.01 is not going to be fun.

Justin Bonnema 12:34am

Powell not hanging around there?

Daniel Simpkins 12:35am

Oh, yeah, there is Powell, Justin, but I think the Jets stigma might drop him to where I can get him later. Don't like him enough to take him ahead of any of those guys I mentioned, either.

James Brimacombe 12:35am

I am ending up with lots of Dixon, Booker, Washington at the end of MFL10 and DRAFT bestballs

Daniel Simpkins 12:36am

Booker will certainly be one of my targets in this draft if the price is right, James.

James Brimacombe 12:37am

I usually love drafting rookies but don't have the stomach for it this year in redraft.

Justin Bonnema 12:37am

Looking at ADP, Powell is going to be league-swinger in SFB7

Daniel Simpkins 12:38am

Is the live ADP indicating where he'll go, Justin? Haven't looked.

Justin Bonnema 12:38am

Daniel I like him above all of the guys you mentioned but will let him fall to me if that's the situation. 

James Brimacombe 12:38am

Paul Perkins is the one RB that I think can shift things this year. Everyone is focused on that passing attack. Low ADP for him

Daniel Simpkins 12:39am

Yep. That's why I'll look to take him at 7.12. 

Justin Bonnema 12:40am

Perfect spot.

Phil Alexander 9:50am

I play this league sorta GPP style. Highest WR ceiling I see left on my board is Watkins

Daniel Simpkins 9:52am

Phil, I agree about highest ceiling. I think for my second RB, I could get away with Powell and Gore on the next turn. Think it's too dangerous to take two of those WRs?

Ryan Hester 9:53am

Daniel - Phil makes a good point. If you're going WR/WR here, you could pair Watkins with a higher floor guy like Crabtree, Sanders, or Landry (or even Robinson, though he seems like he could "bust" more than those others)

Daniel Simpkins 9:53am

Robinson and Watkins awful tempting, but this is my dynasty tendencies coming out.

Jason Wood 9:53am

I'd go Robinson, Daniel

Daniel Simpkins 9:54am

I think Robinson the real deal. If he "busts," it will be because of the situation. And honestly, this is go big or go home anyway, right?

Ryan Hester 10:45am

What are everyone's thoughts on Lacy? Is that job as much his as ADP of he, Prosise, and Rawls suggests? I am struggling to get on board.

Daniel Simpkins 10:46am

Ryan, that situation looks like a committee nightmare to me.

Phil Alexander 10:47am

I like Rawls much better at ADP. That backfield always had hot hand written all over it

Ryan Hester 10:47am

That's how I've been assessing it too, guys. Lacy seems like a horrible buy if that happens.

Justin Bonnema 10:59am

Went with Miller. Figure I can grab Kyle Rudolph and maybe Brate later. 

Daniel Simpkins 11:04am

Good call on Brate, Justin. This talk that OJ Howard is gonna come in and immediately supplant him is silliness.

Phil Alexander 11:18am

Re: Rawls - I think people are forgetting how good he was in 2015 before getting hurt. If he's healthy (everything I've read says he is) it's tough taking that guy off the field. He proved he still had it in last year's Detroit playoff game (albeit against poor competition), and Lacy's recent injury history isn't much better than Rawls'. I see him as a screaming late round value. One of the better backup RBs to prioritize in the double digit rounds

Ryan Hester 12:27pm

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Went with Palmer and Henry on the 5/6 turn. WRs will be chosen later, I suppose. So many decent-enough ones left that it was hard to go there.

Daniel Simpkins 12:30pm

Think that's the right move, Ryan. I'm still watching people take guys like Ertz and Tannehill at 6.10 and 6.11. Some of that WR and RB value is gonna drop to me at the 7.12/8.01.

Jason Wood 2:25pm

My picks at 6.12 and 7.01 are looming. It's down to the Bradford/A. Smith/Goff range of QBs...any reason I should risk passing on them until 8.12? Or is that insanity?

Phil Alexander 2:26pm

I'd take Smith there. Steady QB15-20 production most weeks from your QB2 plays pretty nicely in this league

Phil Alexander 2:31pm

I'm on the clock for 2 straight picks. Roster so far is David Johnson, Reed, Mixon. Need two out of Stafford, Dalton, Tyrod, Eli (I'd be starting the early-mid QB2 run). RBs I'm looking at are CJA, Perkins, Ty-Mont. TE is Eifert or Bennett, and WRs are Baldwin, Demaryius, and Watkins. I need at least one QB (leaning Stafford). Baldwin is hard to pass up here

Justin Howe 2:32pm 

It's bold but I'd say Stafford and Eifert

Phil Alexander 2:32pm

Dear God, Reed and Eifert on the same team?

2:33pm 

Terrifying I know but some of those weeks will be just monstrous

If not Eifert, just bite the bullet and go Staff-Dalton. Much safer

Daniel Simpkins 2:35pm

Reed and Eifert on the same team would be my equivalent of the 7th circle of hell.

Phil Alexander 2:36pm

Took Stafford. Now the hard part

Anyone have a strong take on Paul Perkins? Can't decide if he's a value trap

Ryan Hester 2:39pm

Not a good athlete but should have opportunity. Won't be 3rd down guy with Vereen in town. The real question is whether or not he'll get GL carries (and how many).

Justin Bonnema 2:40pm

I wonder how long Vereen will be a relevant factor in NY. Perkins can catch, no?

Justin Howe 2:40pm 

Perkins is a fine receiver in his own right.

Phil Alexander 2:41pm

They're going to pass on base downs too. Jennings caught a decent number of passes IIRC when him and Vereen were both healthy 

Ryan Hester 2:42pm

But Jennings had caught passes at other stops in the past to a certain extent, hadn't he? Do we know if Perkins has that in his game?

Justin Howe 2:42pm 

Perk did catch 80 passes in 3 years at UCLA

Phil Alexander 2:42pm

I know Perkins wasn't targeted AT ALL after his playing time bumped late last year

Phil Alexander 2:43pm

tiny sample though

Justin Bonnema 2:44pm

80 passes in college suggests he's as good as Vereen, who has done squat as a pro.

Daniel Simpkins 2:46pm

I would like to get the general consensus in here about Perine. Think he beats out guys like Gore, Forte, etc.

Ryan Hester 2:52pm

RE: Perine - hard to have a ton of faith in a guy who likely won't catch passes and doesn't have a defined role. Then again, that's why his ADP is where it is, so if you think he's the guy on the first two downs, he might be a good buy.

Daniel Simpkins 2:53pm

Hate that McCaffrey went a few pics before my turn. He would have been a no-brainer for me.

Hunter Henry might be here at the 7/8 turn. That will be tempting.


Stay tuned as we work further, into the middle and late rounds, over the next couple of days.