DraftKings Millionaire Maker Week 6 Recap

Photo: Mark J. Rebilas, USA Today Sports

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Each week this season, we will spend some time on Tuesday analyzing the highest scoring lineups from the previous weekend's DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest. We highlight trends and strategy such as how much to spend per position, which stacking strategies (if any) have been successful, and which position has been best used in the flex spot. We will also compare results from the 2015 season to our in-depth study of the results from the 2014 season and see if the conclusions we drew over the offseason hold up when more data is added to the equation.

We will also look forward to the upcoming Millionaire Maker contest and point out some players who are in the same price ranges and have matchups similar to the players that helped previous DraftKings contest winners take home huge cash prizes.

THE WINNING LINEUP

DraftKings user dirty6613 won $1.2 Million going away this week. His 15 point margin over second place was by far the biggest we've seen in 2015. dirty6613 stacked Matthew Stafford with Calvin Johnson and also had wide receivers DeAndre Hopkins, Alshon Jeffery and Steve Smith, Sr. All finished amongst the top scorers at wide receiver. He also had the highest scoring running back (Chris Ivory) and rode a strong performance from LeGarrette Blount into first place on Sunday night. dirty6613 also found a nice under-the-radar bargain at tight end with Julius Thomas and rode the chalk play (Broncos) at DST.

Interestingly, second-place finisher DailySportsGeek had an almost perfect lineup, but for the inclusion of Melvin Gordon (1.9 points after leaving early with injury). Incredibly, he was still able to hold off a strong field for second place despite getting almost nothing from his RB1.

THE TOP 20

Below are the lineups of the top 20 finishers in DraftKings' Week 6 Millionaire Maker tournament (RB1, RB2, and WR1-WR3 are ordered by price):  

THE TOP 3 PLAYS

A whopping 80% of the Top 20 finishers stacked Matthew Stafford with Calvin Johnson. Plus, of the four top finishers who did not stack Stafford-Johnson, two owned just Stafford and one owned just Johnson. So all but one of the top finishers had at least one of the Lions duo rostered... Overall, 90% owned Stafford and 85% owned Johnson. The third key player this week was DeAndre Hopkins. Hopkins was the week's highest scorer and owned on 90% of the top rosters. He has arguably taken the mantle from Julio Jones as the "must own" player in daily fantasy.

Over half (55%) of the top finishers actually had the same key lineup feature of Matthew Stafford at QB, DeAndre Hopkins as WR1 and Calvin Johnson as WR2. The trio combined for almost 110 points and provided anyone who was smart enough to pick all three a huge advantage over the field.

STACKS

As mentioned above, the key move this week was stacking the top quarterback scorer, Matthew Stafford, with his top target, Calvin Johnson. For the first time in the 2015 season, we had a stack that was owned by over half of the top finishers (80%). Stacking this duo was the primary path in Week 6 to secure a top finish and a great example of the benefit of the stacking strategy. It is rare for Stafford to put up big numbers without Johnson having a big game as well, so pairing the two makes all the sense in the world.

Looking forward to Week 7, Philip Rivers ($6,500) and Antonio Gates ($5,000) look like a strong duo worth considering as a stack. We recommended the Carson Palmer ($6,700) and John Brown ($5,500) stack last week and it worked out well despite the duo not connecting on a touchdown. It may be worth going back to that well again and hoping for similar results (hopefully with a touchdown or two) against a horrible Ravens secondary. Lastly, Jameis Winston ($5,100) and Mike Evans ($6,400) seem destined for a big week at some point. It could come this week against a porous Washington secondary. 

QUARTERBACKS

Matthew Stafford was owned on 90% of the top rosters and on each of the top 13 finishers. For the first time in 2015, the quarterback position proved to be the major key to a winning lineup and we saw one player dominate the leaderboard. We also saw by far our highest average score (36.2) and multiple (6.8x). The gaudy averages at quarterback were entirely due to Stafford who at a price of only $5,300 scored 37.9 points (7.2x). 

In what is becoming a clear trend, the average price at quarterback was only $5,355. While that is entirely attributable to Stafford, it is worth looking at in context of recent results as well. Week 5 ($6,030), Week 4 ($6,170) and Week 3 ($6,315) all saw the average price at quarterback come in well under $6,500. While the masses continue to pay up for the highest priced quarterbacks (Tom Brady), it is worthwile to continue to plum the lowest-priced quarterbacks for bargains. Jameis Winston ($5,100), Teddy Bridgewater ($5,100) and Ryan Tannehill ($5,700) all appear capable of surprising with a big week and have favorable matchups. Plus, all should be lightly owned, which is a big key to separating from the pack in a large-field GPP like the Millionaire Maker. 

RUNNING BACKS

It would have been the fourth straight week dominated by Devonta Freeman, but he played on Thursday and thus was not part of the Millionaire Maker contest. One of the first questions everyone will have to ask themselves when putting together a Week 7 Millionaire Maker lineup is whether they can afford to fade Freeman. The odds and likely high ownership may point to going away from Freeman being the correct decision (especially with a sneaky tough matchup against Tennessee). But when a guy is this hot, it may be best to just ride the streak until it ends. 

As for the players who hit the field on Sunday and Monday, Chris Ivory was the top performer (31.6 points) and was by far the highest-owned (70%) runner on the top lineups. He most commonly appeared as the RB1 and the top finishers generally were very frugal at the RB position with an average price of only $5,695 at RB1 and $4,690 at RB2. The positions averaged 25.2 and 22.4 respectively for relatively modest multiples of 4.4x and 4.8x. Week 6 was primarily dominated by Matthew Stafford and the top wide receivers and finding solid production in the mid-priced range at running back was sufficient to secure a top finish as long as you hit on the top scorers at QB and WR.

In Week 7, if you decide to risk passing on the high-priced Freeman ($7,900), there are some very strong options in the $4,600-$5,000 range. Todd Gurley ($5,000) is likely to be very highly owned. But he should be a great play in a favorable matchup against Cleveland after shredding a much better Packers defense in his last outing. Frank Gore ($4,900), Doug Martin ($4,900), Danny Woodhead ($4,600) and Lamar Miller ($4,600) all look like strong options capable of hitting the 4.5-5x multiples that have been required for Millionaire Maker succes.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Wide receiver scoring was way down in Week 5 (~23 points on average over the WR1-WR3 positions), but bounced back in a major way in Week 6 with the top finishers averaging ~32 points per wide receiver. The WR1 position produced an average of 37.5 points at a cost of $7,660 (4.9x). It was primarily driven by DeAndre Hopkins (on 90% of the top 20 rosters), who has been on a major hot streak. The WR2s averaged 29.7 points at an average price of $7,200 (4.2x) and Calvin Johnson was most commonly featured as a WR2 (85% ownership overall). The WR3s averaged 28.3 points at a price of $5,900 (28.3x). 

Week 6 felt like a retun to normalcy. High-scoring wide receivers have historically dominated the Millionaire Maker competition due to the full-point PPR scoring and 3-point bonus for 100+ yards receiving. The key in recent years has generally been to hit on three (or four with the flex) receivers who all catch at least a handful of passes, surpass 100 yards and score a touchdown. With only a few exceptions, the top finishers in Week 6 were able to do just that. Most rostered a trio of receivers who each put up 30+ points. 

Week 7 will likely follow a similar script and require hitting on three or four 100+ yard receivers to earn a top finish. DeAndre Hopkins ($8,600), Antonio Brown ($7,900), Calvin Johnson ($7,700), Steve Smith Sr. ($6,200), John Brown ($5,500) and Travis Benjamin ($5,400) all look like good bets to produce big numbers this week. 

TIGHT END

Unlike recent weeks, hitting on one of the top two or three tight ends was not a requirement in order to finish highly in the Millionaire Maker. In fact, eight different tight ends were featured on the top 20 rosters. Greg Olsen (30%) was the highest-owned amongst the top finishers and also the highest scorer with 29.1 points. Overall, the tight ends averaged a relatively modest 20.9 points at an average price of $4,615 (4.5x). 

Antonio Gates was owned on 20% of the top rosters and looks like an extremely strong play again in Week 7 at a price of only $5,000. Delanie Walker ($3,900) and Benjamin Watson ($3,300) have both been putting up solid numbers and are priced low enough to allow you to afford Devonta Freeman and/or DeAndre Hopkins should you decide to go that route.

FLEX

Continuing the theme of wide receivers once again dominating the Millionaire Maker, 85% of the top finishers rostered a fourth wide reciever in the FLEX spot. Steve Smith, Sr. and Anquan Boldin were commonly included as FLEX options on Top 20 rosters. Overall, the position averaged 26.2 points at a price of $5,775 (4.5x). 

Looking forward to Week 7, it again looks like a good week to roster a fourth wide receiver. Especially if you are able to squeeze in four receivers in the mid-high price range. However, the bargain options (under $5,000) at running back could make the position a better FLEX target for those who are a little bit tighter on cap space. 

TOURNAMENT PLAYER INFORMATION

Only 20% of the top finishers were single entry players in a week dominated by the multi-entry folks. For one of the first times all season, we saw a lot of the big-money players finish very highly. 60% of the Top 20 entered at least 16 entries and 70% entered at least 12 entries.