DraftKings Millionaire Maker: Week 2 Recap

Photo: Kyle Terada, USA Today Sports

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Each week this season, we will spend some time on Tuesday analyzing the highest scoring lineups from the previous weekend's DraftKings $10M Millionaire Maker contest. We will highlight trends and strategy such as how much to spend per position, which stacking strategies (if any) have been successful, and which position has been best used in the flex spot. We will also compare results from the 2015 season to our in-depth study of the results from the 2014 season and see if the conclusions we drew over the offseason hold up when more data is added to the equation.

We will also look forward to the upcoming Millionaire Maker contest and point out some players who are priced in the same ranges and have matchups similar to the players that helped previous DraftKings contest winners take home huge cash prizes.

THE WINNING LINEUP

DraftKings user TheDuganBrothers entered a single lineup into the context with QB Marcus Mariota, RB DeAngelo Williams, RB Danny Woodhead, WR Julian Edelman, WR Antonio Brown, WR Travis Benjamin, TE Rob Gronkowski, FLEX Larry Fitzgerald, and DST Rams. Interestingly, the entire lineup played in the early games so TheDuganBrothers racked up 246.18  points in just a bit over 3 hours on Sunday afternoon.

The only entry that was able to make a serious run at the top spot was 2nd place finisher mdigiaco who rode many of the same players to a quick start in the early games and then watched as WR Michael Crabtree had a huge performance in the afternoon and fueled his charge up the leaderboard. Unfortunately, Crabtree's big outing came at the expense of mdigiaco's DST Ravens. The Ravens ended up with negative points which caused mdigiaco to come up just a couple points shy of 1st place. Just a friendly reminder; you don't want to stack your defense with a player on the opposing team in the Millionaire Maker. Because if your position player (WR in this case) has a high-scoring game, it's much more likely your DST had a rough day. 

THE TOP 20

Below are the lineups of the top 20 finishers in DraftKings' Week 2 Millionaire Maker tournament: 

THE TOP WEEK 1 PLAYS

The four players who appeared most regularly in the elite lineups (the top 20 finishers) were DeAngelo Williams (80%), Larry Fitzgerald (75%), Julian Edelman (75%), and Antonio Brown (70%). Perhaps most interestingly, 55% of the top 20 stacked Pittsburgh's top WR and RB and owned both Brown and Williams. While stacking a RB and WR from the same team is usually a losing proposition, it paid off in a major way in Week 2. One of the top finishers stacked Roethlisberger with DeAngelo Williams but didn't have any Steelers pass catchers. It was that kind of week... 

STACKS

The most successful stack of Week 2 was pairing Tom Brady with his top 2 targets, Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski. This "double stack" was present on 35% of the top entries. Stacking multiple top targets for one Quarterback is an especially strong tactic when paying up for one of the top passers. For Brady to have a huge week that really justifies his higher price, he is probably going to have to produce huge numbers (like his 466 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 2) and most of the time, those type of numbers will require multiple pass catchers having huge days alongside their quarterback. 

Some of the other successful stacks that finished near the top were Roethlisberger-Brown, Palmer-Fitzgerald, Flacco-Gillmore, Brady-Gronkowski and Brady-Edelman.

Looking forward to Week 3, can you bet against Tom Brady ($7,700) when he is this hot? He faces Jacksonville and stacking him with Edelman ($7,000), Gronkowksi ($7,400) or both looks like a solid play once again. Carson Palmer ($6,400) is home to face the same 49ers defense that Roethlisberger torched in Week 2. John Brown ($5,100) and Larry Fitzgerald ($5,800) are solid options for a mid-priced stack.

QUARTERBACKS

Week 1 saw the Quarterbacks on the top 20 rosters average a shockingly low 22 points. Things returned to normal in Week 2 with the top passers averaging 29.35 points. At an average price of $7,055, we get a scoring multiple of 4.2x. Tom Brady ($7,500) led the way at 55% ownership and Ben Roethlisberger ($7,200) was the other highly owned option at 25%. As with last week, the sweet spot in terms of pricing was in the $6,400 to $7,500 range with none of the most highly priced quarterbacks proving worth the cost.

Looking forward to Week 3, neither Brady ($7,700) nor Roethlisberger ($7,200) received big pricing bumps. With two big weeks under their belts already, both are relatively safe options with incredibly high upside. Carson Palmer remains incredibly affordable ($6,400) despite averaging more than 25 points per game over the first two weeks. For the first time in years, Peyton Manning ($7,400) is relatively affordable. He has not looked great so far, but he is right in our pricing sweet spot and always is good for a few monster performances each season.

RUNNING BACKS

On average, The Top 20 finishers spent just $5,580 on their RB1 and put up 26.5 points at the position (4.8x). The Top 20 spent only $4,315 on average for their RB2 and put up just 17.8 points (4.1x) at the position. If we are looking for just one major takeaway from Week 2, it may be that spending on a top Running Back is going to be a losing strategy for 2015. Adrian Peterson ($7,700) found his way onto 15% of the top rosters, but for 80% of the top finishers did not spend more than $5,900 on their top Running Back. 

DeAngelo Williams ($5,300) was the key guy to own in Week 2 and was the highest priced back on 65% of the top finishers. Dion Lewis (25%) and Danny Woodhead (25%) were among the more successful cheap options at RB. 

With Julio Jones, Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski absolutely on fire to start the 2015 season, it is tough to justify paying for a top running back instead of locking in one or more of the top receiving options. Danny Woodhead ($4,400) is slowly creeping up in price, but he remains a strong option when looking to save money at RB in Week 3. Devonta Freeman ($4,600), Frank Gore ($4,500), Dion Lewis ($4,200) and Isaiah Crowell ($4,500) are also in that same low-priced range. Lance Dunbar ($3,200) and Theo Riddick ($3,100) are near-minimum priced if you want to go all-in on fading the Running Back position in Week 3.

WIDE RECEIVERS

WR1 was almost all Antonio Brown and Julian Edelman show in Week 2 with 95% of the Top 20 owning one of the two as their highest priced option. Overall, the average price was $7,965 and produced 36.8 points (4.6x). The most common WR2s were Julian Edelman (35%) and Larry Fitzgerald (30%). The average WR2 price was $5,960 and produced 32.4 points (5.4x).

Once again, a major key to a top finish in the Millionaire Maker was nailing the WR3 position. Despite spending only $4,365 on their WR3, the top finishers scored 31.2 points at the position for a multiple of 7.2x. Larry Fitzgerald (30%) was a top option as was Travis Benjamin (25%). 

Spending heavily on one or more top WRs has paid off in a major way the first two weeks. In Week 3, Julio Jones ($9,000), Antonio Brown ($8,900) and Demaryius Thomas ($8,000) are still priced at a level where it is worth trying to find a way to fit them onto your roster. Hitting on the mid-lower priced guys is a much more difficult task, but some players who stand out as having big upside are T.Y. Hilton (6,700), Allen Robinson ($5,200), and John Brown ($5,100). Nate Washington ($3,600), Marvin Jones ($3,600) and Kamar Aiken ($3,400) are possible bargain basement options that could have big weeks. 

TIGHT END

To Gronk or Not to Gronk? If Rob Gronkowski keeps up his torrid pace, every week may end up starting with this question when assembling your Millionaire Maker roster. Gronkowski was owned on 55% of the top finishing rosters and was the only tight end with higher than 15% ownership in Week 2 amongst the top finishers. Overall, the top finishers spent $5,630 on average and scored 21.8 points (3.9x). But it is probably most helpful to break it down into Gronkowski owners vs. non-Gronkowski owners. On average, the non-Gronkowski owners spent only $3,589 in Week 2 and scored just 15 points (4.2x). Crockett Gillmore ($2,500) was the #2 scorer at the position this week and was one of the top overall values. It is not often you see a player return more than 10x value. Overall, the correct play in Week 2 was either to pay up for Gronkowski or spend on a low-priced option so the $5,630 average is a little bit misleading.

Looking forward to Week 3, it all starts with the Gronkowski decision. His price tag of just $7,400 is extremely tempting but his ownership is likely to be through the roof as well. Can you fade him? If you do, Kyle Rudolph ($3,300), Crockett Gillmore ($3,300) and (Owen Daniels ($2,900) are all inexpensive options with real upside in Week 3.

FLEX

After only 20% of the top scorers using a WR in the Flex spot in Week 1, a whopping 85% of the top scorers used a 4th Wide Reciever in the Flex spot in Week 2. This high rate of WR-usage is what we saw over a larger sample size when looking at the top finishers across the entire 2014 season. Overall, the Flex spot produced 26.4 points at a cost of 6,200 (4.3x) in Week 2. A number of the top finishers had a high-priced WR in their Flex spot with Antonio Brown (15%), Odell Beckham, Jr. and Calvin Johnson all appearing in top lineups. 

In Week 3, the attractive prices at Wide Receiver make rostering a 4th player at the position a nice option. It is also worth considering adding a Tight End in the flex spot if you do decide to use Rob Gronkowski. Using him as your flex (or as your TE with another TE at Flex) is a good way to add some unqiueness to your roster when using a player that is expected to have an incredibly high ownership rate.

TOURNAMENT PLAYER INFORMATION

Of the Top 20 finishers, 75% (15/20) entered just a single lineup. The five top multi-entry finishers had 2, 3, 4, 12, and 14 total entries. Each of the top 8 finishers entered only one lineup. It was definitely a week where the "average Joes" dominated the top of the leaderboard. 

With some of the offenses Vegas predicted to be the highest scoring underperforming, it was a tough week for the "smart money." We saw that somewhat in the Millionaire Maker with some strange lineup combinations (QB/RB stacks, WR/RB stacks, WR and opposing DST stacks, etc.) finishing at the top of the leaderboard and the very top being dominated by single entries. It will be interesting to see if some of these trends continue or whether we are just witnessing the randomness that comes with early season DFS.

For questions, comments, feedback and suggestions for future articles, please contact me on Twitter (@hindery) or send me an email (hindery@footballguys.com).