DraftKings Millionaire Maker Week 14 Recap

Photo: Brad Mills, USA Today Sports

Each week this season, we will spend some time on Tuesday analyzing the highest scoring lineups from the previous weekend's DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest. We highlight trends and strategy such as how much to spend per position, which stacking strategies (if any) have been successful, and which position has been best used in the flex spot. We will also compare results from the 2015 season to our in-depth study of the results from the 2014 season and see if the conclusions we drew over the offseason hold up when more data is added to the equation.

We will also look forward to the upcoming Millionaire Maker contest and point out some players who are in the same price ranges and have matchups similar to the players that helped previous DraftKings contest winners take home huge cash prizes.

THE WINNING LINEUP

DraftKings user TheBrewster rode a big Monday night peformance from Odell Beckham, Jr. to the top of the leaderboard and was barely able to stay ahead of a pair of entries with both Beckham and Jarvis Landry that finished just behind in second and third. TheBrewster used the popular Russell Wilson-Doug Baldwin stack and was able to fit in a trio of other popular, high-priced receivers (Beckham, Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery). The strategy found success mainly due to the highly-contrarian (0.3% ownership) play of inexpensive Isaiah Crowell at running back (along with Eddie Lacy). Crowell's near-minimum salary and big game were the key to TheBrewster's win. He also used the popular Chiefs DST. 

The winning lineup is a good reminder that if you don't need your entire lineup to be filled with contrarian, low-owned players. Owning just one player like Crowell really sets your lineup apart and it makes sense to fill the rest of your lineup with the top "chalk" plays instead of reaching to create further unqiueness. 

THE TOP 20

Below are the lineups of the top-20 finishers in DraftKings' Week 14 Millionaire Maker tournament (RB1, RB2, and WR1, WR2 and WR3 are sorted by price):

THE TOP 3 PLAYS OF THE WEEK

The three key players in Week 14 were Russell Wilson (90%), Doug Baldwin (100%) and Odell Beckham, Jr. (100%). It is rare to see a stack so thoroughly dominate a large-field GPP like this, but a full 90% of the entrants owned both Wilson and Baldwin. The duo combined for more than 64 points and cost only $9,800 (6.5x). The inexpensive duo not only scored big, but allowed owners to pay up for the slate's top option (Beckham) at a price of $9,100. 

STACKS

Week 14 was yet another advertisement for the wisdom of stacking a quarterback with at least one of his top targets. As mentioned above, 90% of the entrants stacked Wilson and Baldwin. The other two top-20 finishers stacked Eli Manning-Odell Beckham and Ryan Fitzpatrick-Brandon Marshall, meaning 100% of the top finishers used a stack.

One of the toughest considerations every week is whether to single-stack or double-stack. Both strategies found success this week. Of the 18 top finishers who stacked Wilson and Baldwin, exactly half also stacked Tyler Lockett with Wilson. The Wilson-Baldwin-Lockett double-stack was a highly effective strategy in Week 14 and was an easy way to gain some separation from the many who stacked Wilson with only Baldwin.

QUARTERBACKS

Russell Wilson was an obvious choice in Week 14 (and highlighted here last week) and he did not disappoint with five passing touchdowns against the miserable Ravens defense. He was owned by 90% of the top finishers. Overall, the quartebacks averaged 31.86 points at a price of $6,245 (5.1x). 

One of the consistent themes in these recaps all season has been that limiting spending at quarterback to $6,500 or less has been the smart play nearly every single week. The safe move for Week 15 may be to stick with what has worked in the past. Matthew Stafford ($6,100) and Tyrod Taylor ($5,600) both seem like solid options in the price range that has led to so much success. However, if there was a week to pay up at quarterback, Week 15 may be it. Tom Brady ($7,800), Cam Newton ($7,800), Carson Palmer ($7,000), Russell Wilson ($7,000) and Drew Brees ($6,600) all have nice matchups. It seems like the best play this week is going to be to pay up for one of these five quarterbacks and try to save a little bit of cap space elsewhere.

RUNNING BACKS

There were not many standout performances at running back in Week 14 and the "chalk" plays at the position mostly were busts. The star of the week was probably Todd Gurley (50% ownership amongst top finishers) who finally had a bounce-back performance. It was not a week in which you needed to hit a "homerun" at the running back position to finish highly. The scoring multiples at RB1 (3.9x) and RB2 (3.8x) were both relatively low. In a down scoring week, just hitting above average 4.0x production from your two rushers was enough to put you in contention if you hit on your receivers.

Looking forward to Week 15, there appears to be some decent value near the top of the price range with Adrian Peterson ($7,100), Lamar Miller ($6,300) and LeSean McCoy ($6,300). There could also be some real value with cheaper injury replacements such as Denard Robinson ($4,600) and Tim Hightower ($3,900).

WIDE RECEIVERS

Of the five receivers we highlighted as strong options last Tuesday, three (Beckham, Marshall and Jeffery) appeared on the $1,000,000 roster. It was a relatively "chalky" week at the position with most of the top scoring receivers having high ownership levels. The top finishers hit with solid multiples on their WR1s (4.0x) and WR2s (4.4x) but really knocked it out of the park with their choices at WR3 (7.5x).

Beckham was the best and most common option at WR1 and led to a very high average price at the position ($8,395). Baldwin and Lockett were the most common options at WR2 and WR3 for the top finishers. 

Aside from Julio Jones ($8,500), the top receivers each face tough matchups in Week 15. It makes sense to target wide receiver as the position to try to save some cap space this week. Sammy Watkins ($6,200), Doug Baldwin ($5,800), Jeremy Maclin ($5,500), and Willie Snead ($4,600) all are strong options with favorable matchups and relatively low prices. Targeting this mid-lower priced tier for two or three options opens up some room to afford one of the top quarterbacks and at least one of the top runners as well. 

TIGHT END

Jordan Reed was by far the top performer at tight end with 30 points and was also the most highly-owned tight end amongst the top finishers (60%). Overall, the top-20 finishers acheived a strong 5.1x multiplier with 25.1 points at an average price of just $4,880 at the position.

FLEX

Unlike recent weeks where we haven't seen one position emerge as the clear top option at Flex, Week 14 was dominated by the wide receivers. 90% of the top finishers used a fourth receiver in the flex spot. With wide receiver scoring way up, the Flex spot produced big numbers for the top finishers with an average of 29.7 points scored (5.0x). 

TOURNAMENT PLAYER INFORMATION

With the format change in Week 14 that dropped entry fees to just $3 per entry, we unsurprisingly saw an increase in the number of multi-entry players finishing at the top of the leaderboard. In fact, every single top-20 finisher entered at least three lineups.