DraftKings Millionaire Maker Week 13 Recap

Photo: Gary A. Vasquez, USA Today Sports

Each week this season, we will spend some time on Tuesday analyzing the highest scoring lineups from the previous weekend's DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest. We highlight trends and strategy such as how much to spend per position, which stacking strategies (if any) have been successful, and which position has been best used in the flex spot. We will also compare results from the 2015 season to our in-depth study of the results from the 2014 season and see if the conclusions we drew over the offseason hold up when more data is added to the equation.

We will also look forward to the upcoming Millionaire Maker contest and point out some players who are in the same price ranges and have matchups similar to the players that helped previous DraftKings contest winners take home huge cash prizes.

THE WINNING LINEUP

DraftKings user 1DontTryThisAtHome1 rode a big Sunday night peformance from his five Steelers (Ben Roethlisberger, DeAngelo Williams, Antonio Brown, Martavis Bryand and Steelers DST) to the top of the leaderboard. His correlation play of Brown and the Steelers DST paid off handsomely when Brown returned a late punt return for a touchdown. Along with the Steelers, he also chose the top scorers at running back (Javorius Allen) and Wide Reciever (Allen Robinson) along with solid value options Jeremy Maclin and Scott Chandler. 

THE TOP 20

Below are the lineups of the top-20 finishers in DraftKings' Week 13 Millionaire Maker tournament (RB1, RB2, and WR1, WR2 and WR3 are sorted by price):

The Top 3 Plays of the Week

The three key players in Week 13 were Javorius Allen (90%), Antonio Brown (95%) and Allen Robinson (95%). Rostering Allen was an especially important move for the top finishers in Week 13. He was relatively low-owned at just ~8% and his 38 points lapped the field at running back. It was incredibly difficult to gain much separation and quarterback or tight end, so Allen at running back ended up being the key differentiator. Brown was extremely highly-owned, but it was still key to choose him over Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Jr. and DeAndre Hopkins (none of whom were owned by a top-20 finisher). Lastly, Allen Robinson was the week's highest scorer and owning him was almost a prerequisite to a top finish in a week where he scored a whopping 46.3 points.

STACKS

An overwhelming majority of the top finishers (80%) stacked at least one player along with their quarterback. It ended up being an especially strong week for those who "double-stacked" or even "triple-stacked." 10% of the top finishers triple-stacked Roethlisberger with DeAngelo Williams, Antonio Brown and Martavis Bryant. 15% of the top finisher double-stacked Tom Brady with Scott Chandler and Danny Amendola. 

QUARTERBACKS

All three of our recommendations from last week (Tom Brady, Cam Newton and Ryan Fitzpatrick) appeared on multipe rosters of top-20 finishers. However, it was Ben Roethlisberger (in part due to the common correlation play with Antonio Brown) who appeared on the most top rosters (45%). Overall, it was a huge week for quarterback scoring with five passers scoring at least 35 fantasy points. Overall, the top finishers averaged 36.88 points from the quarterback position at a price of $6,775 (5.4x). 

Looking forward to Week 14, Jameis Winston ($5,500) has an enticing matchup against the Saints. New Orleans has been shredded by opposing quarterbacks over the past two months and Winston has been playing well. He will be an understandably popular play and certainly capable of hitting the 5x multiples desired in the Millionaire Maker. Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,400) faces a Tennessee defense that just gave up five passing touchdowns to Blake Bortles. Speaking of Bortles ($6,000), he returns home to face a weak Indianapolis pass defense that was eviscerated by the Steelers Sunday night. Lastly, Russell Wilson ($6,300) has been on fire in recent weeks and travels to face a Baltimore defense that has been vulnerable against top quarterbacks. 

RUNNING BACKS

As mentioned above, Javorius Allen easily led the way at the running back position with 38 points. David Johnson unsurprisingly provided tremendous value at the position with 20 points at a price of just $3,400 (5.9x). Overall, the RB1s averaged 29.16 points at a price of $5,420 (5.4x) and the RB2s averaged 25.6 points at a price of $4,475 (5.7x). As with every other position, exceeding the 5x multiple was necessary to have real GPP success in Week 13.

Shaun Draughn ($4,800) has been seeing a heavy workload in recent weeks and faces a juicy matchup against a Cleveland defense that looks like it may have thrown in the towel on the season after the heart-breaking loss in Week 12 to Baltimore. The Philadelphia offense looks better with Darren Sproles ($3,500) at running back than it does with the disgruntled DeMarco Murray. Murray may end up in Chip Kelly's doghouse after going behind the coach's back to complain to ownership. If Ryan Mathews remains out, Sproles looks like a strong value play against the Bills. On the other side of the matchup, LeSean McCoy ($6,100) faces his former team and is going to be hungry for revenge. Rex Ryan is the type of coach who would love to feed McCoy enough touches to ake that possible. 

WIDE RECEIVERS

As we predicted here last week, picking the correct option from the top four receivers (Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, Jr. and DeAndre Hopkins) was absolutely crucial to success. If you didn't have Antonio Brown, you weren't going to finish at the top of the standings. In addition to choosing Brown as your WR1, you basically had to choose Allen Robinson from the crowded field of potential WR2s to have a shot at a top finish. Any number of options worked out well with alongside Brown and Robinson, but Brandon Marshall and Danny Amendola were amongst the most common WR3s to appear on the rosters of the top finishers.

As with other postions, we saw huge average scoring multiples of at least 4.8x at every wide receiver spot on the top rosters. The WR1s averaged 40.7 points at a price of $8,460 (4.8x). The WR2s averaged 41 points at a price of $7,075 (5.8x). The WR3s averaged 28.65 points at a price of $5,575 (5.1x). Add it all up and the top finishers averaged more than 110 combined points just from their three wide receivers. 

With the possible exception of Beckham ($9,100), the top receivers all face tough matchups in Week 14. It may be profitable to avoid the top four receivers entirely and build a roster around players from the second tier. A.J. Green ($7,900), Brandon Marshall ($7,600), Mike Evans ($7,200) and Alshon Jeffery ($6,900) all have nice matchups. With the value available at QB and RB2, it is quite possible to build a roster around three high-upside receivers from this pricing tier. 

TIGHT END

As predicted, Scott Chandler was the top option at the position as his minimum salary of just $2,500 allowed him to hit a 6.4x scoring multiple. He was owned by 55% of the top finishers. Overall, the tight ends scored 17.3 points at an average price of just $3,680 (4.7x). Delanie Walker (20%) was also a strong option. While Chandler's price has jumped up to $3,800 for Week 14, he again is a strong option for the Millionaire Maker.

FLEX

The Flex spot was again split fairly evenly between the postions; wide receiver (55%), running back (35%) and tight end (10%) all were solidly represented. With the scoring up overall in Week 12, the Flex spot also saw a big 5.2x multiple with an average price of $5,455 for 28.3 points of fantasy production

TOURNAMENT PLAYER INFORMATION

85% of the top finishers entered three or fewer lineups and each of the top 20 entered ten lineups or less. The strong performance by so many of the "chalk" players led to a week in which entering multiple lineups presented much less of an advantage than it normally does.