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Each week this season, we will spend some time on Tuesday analyzing the highest scoring lineups from the previous weekend's DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest. We highlight trends and strategy such as how much to spend per position, which stacking strategies (if any) have been successful, and which position has been best used in the flex spot. We will also compare results from the 2015 season to our in-depth study of the results from the 2014 season and see if the conclusions we drew over the offseason hold up when more data is added to the equation.
We will also look forward to the upcoming Millionaire Maker contest and point out some players who are in the same price ranges and have matchups similar to the players that helped previous DraftKings contest winners take home huge cash prizes.
THE WINNING LINEUP
DraftKings user keazy surged out to the lead during the late afternoon games on Sunday with a big performance from his QB-WR stack of Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin and then held on through relatively low-scoring fantasy games on Sunday and Monday night to take home the $1,000,000 top prize. In addition to Wilson and Baldwin, keazy also used Thomas Rawls from Seattle. He recevied big performances from Adrian Peterson, Odell Beckham, Jr., Jarvis Landry, Amari Cooper and Julius Thomas. While the Chiefs DST were not an optimal play, keazy racked up enough of a lead elsewhere that he could have won even with a zero from his defense.
THE TOP 20
Below are the lineups of the top-20 finishers in DraftKings' Week 12 Millionaire Maker tournament (RB1, RB2, and WR1-WR3 are ordered by price):
Rank |
Pts |
QB |
RB1 |
RB2 |
WR1 |
WR2 |
WR3 |
TE |
FLEX |
DST |
1 | 256.7 | Wilson | Peterson | Rawls | Beckham | Landry | Baldwin | J. Thomas | A. Cooper | Chiefs |
2 | 249.34 | E. Manning | Peterson | Martin | Beckham | Landry | Baldwin | J. Thomas | Watkins | Giants |
3 | 248.6 | Wilson | Peterson | Martin | Beckham | Watkins | Baldwin | Gates | D. Walker | Bengals |
4 | 248 | Wilson | Peterson | Ingram | B. Marshall | Landry | De. Jackson | Gates | Baldwin | Chiefs |
5 | 247.9 | Wilson | Peterson | J. Allen | Beckham | Watkins | Baldwin | D. Walker | Eifert | Bengals |
6 | 243.4 | Wilson | Ivory | Martin | B. Marshall | Watkins | Baldwin | D. Walker | Peterson | Cardinals |
7 | 242.7 | Wilson | Peterson | L. McCoy | Landry | Watkins | Baldwin | Gronkowski | Ch. Johnson | Texans |
8 | 242.4 | Rivers | Peterson | J. Allen | Beckham | Watkins | De. Jackson | Gates | Baldwin | Cardinals |
9 | 242.3 | Carr | Peterson | Rawls | Beckham | Maclin | Moncrief | Gates | Landry | Ravens |
10 | 242.16 | Bortles | Peterson | De. Williams | A.J. Green | B. Marshall | A. Cooper | J. Thomas | Maclin | Browns |
11 | 240.9 | Wilson | J. Allen | Ware | Beckham | Fitzgerald | Baldwin | Reed | Peterson | Bengals |
12 | 239.8 | Wilson | Peterson | Coleman | Beckham | An. Brown | Hilton | J. Thomas | Baldwin | Colts |
13 | 239.1 | Rivers | Peterson | Blue | Beckham | Hilton | Watkins | J. Thomas | Gates | Seahawks |
14 | 237.9 | Rivers | Woodhead | Ware | Beckham | A. Cooper | Watkins | J. Thomas | Peterson | Ravens |
15 | 237.2 | Carr | Rawls | Blue | Beckham | B. Marshall | Baldwin | Reed | Peterson | Ravens |
16 | 237 | Wilson | Peterson | Yeldon | Beckham | B. Marshall | V. Jackson | Graham | Baldwin | Bengals |
16 | 237 | Wilson | Peterson | J. Allen | Beckham | Mar. Bryant | Baldwin | Reed | Decker | Bengals |
18 | 236.9 | Wilson | Peterson | Ingram | Beckham | Decker | Hilton | Tamme | Baldwin | Bengals |
19 | 236.48 | Cousins | Peterson | De. Williams | Hilton | Maclin | Moncrief | Reed | Beckham | Bengals |
20 | 236.2 | Wilson | Peterson | Draughn | Beckham | B. Marshall | Baldwin | D. Walker | Reed | Chiefs |
THE TOP 3 PLAYS OF THE WEEK
The Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin stack was the key to success this week. The duo appeared together on 60% of the top rosters. The stack cost just $9,800 and the two players combined to score 79.7 points (8.1x). It just doesn't get much better than that and the strategy of stacking the pair was a homerun play for those who chose to do it.
Picking just one player as the third top play is tough; Odell Beckham Jr, Adrian Peterson, Julius Thomas, Jarvis Landry and Sammy Watkins could all make a decent case. Peterson (100% ownership) is the choice though due to what the decision to roster him meant for overall roster contruction. With the majority of players this week going with two cheap running backs to allow themselves enough salary cap space to roster two of the top three wide receviers (Beckham, Julio Jones and DeAndre Hopkins), choosing to pay up for Peterson at running back was a key differentiator. Not only did Peterson put up big numbers, but he also likely helped his owners avoid the mistake of rostering two of the most expensive receivers (only one of whom came anywhere near meeting value).
STACKS
A whopping 90% of the top finishers played a single-stack this week (quarterback with one of his top targets). The most successful was clearly Russell Wilson paired with Doug Baldwin. 60% of the top-20 used this duo together. Some other successful stacks included Blake Bortles with Julius Thomas, Philip Rivers with Antonio Gates and Kirck Cousins with Jordan Reed.
QUARTERBACKS
For the second straight week, Russell Wilson made an appearance on multiple top-20 rosters. In fact, he was far and away the best play at the position and led quarterback scoring by a decent margin with his 38.2 points. With Wilson owners dominating the top of the leaderboard, Philip Rivers and David Carr were the only other quarterbacks to appear on multiple top-20 rosters. Overall, the quarterbacks of the top-20 finishers acheived a healthy 5.6x multiple with 34.1 points at an average price of just $6,125.
There has been a strong trend this season of the inexpensive quarterbacks dominating the top of the standings. It's possible that Week 13 will break the mold with both Tom Brady ($8,000) and Cam Newton ($7,400) owning matchups that look great on paper. Brady's ownership could be much lower than normal due to his lack of weapons, which may provide an opportunity to differentiate your lineup with one of the highest-upside players in fantasy. Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5,200) looked great in Week 12 and faces a juicy matchup against the Giants this week and should be a strong play at the lower end of the price range.
RUNNING BACKS
It has been a few weeks since we've had a real star turn from a RB1, but Adrian Peterson provided one in Week 12. Peterson's 35.7 points at the position led the way and provided real separation in the standings for those who rostered him. He appeared on 100% of the top-20 rosters (80% as a RB1 and 20% in the FLEX spot). Overall, the RB1s averaged 31.6 points at a price of $6,845 (4.6x). The RB2s averaged a modest 16.5 points at a price of $4,960 (3.3x).
None of the inexpensive RB2 options that looked so appealing heading into Week 12 exploded for big fantasy games (Tevin Coleman, Javorious Allen, Thomas Rawls, etc.). Plus, paying down at RB1 to open up extra cap space to pay for a top receiver was a losing move. Aside from Odell Beckham, Jr., most of the top WR plays cost $6,800 or less.
The two obvious value plays at running back in Week 13 look to be David Johnson ($3,400) and C.J. Anderson ($3,500). Stars and scrubs did not work out in Week 12, but it might be worth going back to the well one more time. DeAngelo Williams ($5,600) is likely to be the chalk play at the position in the mid-priced range and the matchup against Indianapolis certainly looks appealing.
WIDE RECEIVERS
Last week, we pointed to the top four receivers in Week 12 (Odell Beckham, Jr., Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins and Antonio Brown) and noted that picking the right one or two players from the group would be one of the keys to success in the Millionaire Maker contest. With three of the four severly underperforming expectations, the elite wide receiver choice ended up being the make-or-break decision of Week 12. 80% of the top finishers owned Beckham. Only one of the top-20 finishers owned any of the other three receivers. Overall, the WR1s averaged 32.4 points at a price of $8,190 (4.0x).
The fantasy production at WR2 and WR3 ended up being plentiful in Week 12. The WR2s averaged 31.5 points at $6,120 (5.2x) with Sammy Watkins and Jarvis Landry leading the way. The WR3x averaged an incredible 32.5 points at a price of just $4,515 (7.2x). Doug Baldwin (60% ownership) led the way at WR3 and was the highest-scoring receiver on the slate.
The big question in Week 13 may again be which elite WRs to roster. If it looks like Julio Jones ($9,000) is going to see his ownership depressed after a tough Week 12 matchup, he will be a good choice against Tampa Bay. At WR3, the injury news for the Patriots will be worth watching closely. Both Danny Amendola ($4,700) and Brandon LaFell ($4,800) look like strong options early in the week.
TIGHT END
Julius Thomas (29.6 points) was the star at the position this week but appeared on just 20% of the top rosters (and only 3% ownership overall in the tournament). Overall, the TEs hit a strong 4.6x multiple with 21.2 points at a price of $4,590.
Scott Chandler ($2,500) is going to be a chalk play if Rob Gronkowski is out in Week 13. His ownership rates will make him a good candidate for a fade, but at that low of a price, he really gives you a whole lot of lineup flexibility.
FLEX
The Flex spot was again split fairly evenly between the postions; wide receiver (55%), running back (25%) and tight end (20%) all were solidly represented. With the scoring up overall in Week 12, the Flex spot also saw a big 5.4x multiple with an average price of $5,580 for 30 points of fantasy production
TOURNAMENT PLAYER INFORMATION
60% of the top-20 spots went to players who entered three lineups or less. Only one truly high-entry player (100+ entries) finished in the top 20.