DraftKings Millionaire Maker Week 10 Recap

Photo: Denny Medley, USA Today Sports

Each week this season, we will spend some time on Tuesday analyzing the highest scoring lineups from the previous weekend's DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest. We highlight trends and strategy such as how much to spend per position, which stacking strategies (if any) have been successful, and which position has been best used in the flex spot. We will also compare results from the 2015 season to our in-depth study of the results from the 2014 season and see if the conclusions we drew over the offseason hold up when more data is added to the equation.

We will also look forward to the upcoming Millionaire Maker contest and point out some players who are in the same price ranges and have matchups similar to the players that helped previous DraftKings contest winners take home huge cash prizes.

THE WINNING LINEUP

DraftKings user Tlewia rode a strong performance from his trio of running backs (Adrian Peterson, Jeremy Langford and Charcandrick West) to victory Monday night. He also received strong performances from Kirk Cousins, Rob Gronkowski and Martavis Bryant. The lineup was rounded out with Allen Robinson, Kamar Aiken and the Bengals DST. TLewia's 232.36 point performance was enough to cruise to an almost nine point victory over second place in what was a low-scoring week overall. 

THE TOP 20

Below are the lineups of the top-20 finishers in DraftKings' Week 10 Millionaire Maker tournament (RB1, RB2, and WR1-WR3 are ordered by price):

The Top 3 Plays of the Week

For the second straight week, Antonio Brown was a key determinant of success in the Millionaire Maker contest. Unlike Week 9 when Brown was owned by about one third of the field, his Week 10 ownership was very low. With Landry Jones expected to start, Brown was considered a poor play; but the Jones injury opened the door to Ben Roethlisberger and another 40+ point performance from Brown (who showed up on 50% of the top rosters). 

The other top plays of the week were a pair of young backs who were thought to have extremely difficult matchups: Charcandrick West (at Denver) and Jeremy Langford (at St. Louis). Langford was on every single top-20 roster and his 40.2 points were easily the best at the running back position. West (25%) was lower owned, but similarly impactful.

STACKS

It is interesting to see the back-and-forth between weeks in which stacks dominate the top of the standings and occasional weeks when they do not. Week 10 was not a "stacking week." None of the top-five finishers had a stack and only 35% of the top lineups stacked. The most successful stacks of the week were Kirk Cousins with either Jordan Reed or Matt Jones. 

Week 11 has some interesting stacking options. The idea of stacking a quarterback with a running back who is heavily involved in the passing game is a good one that bore fruit in Week 10. Alex Smith ($5,000) with Charcandrick West ($4,500) is a low-cost duo that allows you to load up at other positions but still gives you real upside should the duo connect for a touchdown or if the Chiefs just have a high-scoring game in general. Tyrod Taylor ($5,200) and Sammy Watkins ($4,800) will likely be a popular stack but it could still pay off in a major way and looks enticing. Buffalo's opponent on Monday night, New England will also probably be a popular stacking target with Brandon LaFell ($4,300) and Danny Amendola ($4,000) both inexplicably inexpensive. 

QUARTERBACKS

No quarterbacks really separated from the pack in Week 10. Kirk Cousins scored 31.96 points and appeared on 40% of the top rosters. But eight other quarterbacks also appeared on the rosters of top-20 finishers; a reflection of the lack of separation in scoring at the position again this week.

Overall, the quarterbacks on the top-20 finishers averaged 26.77 points at a price of $6,145 (4.4x). 

We recommended Cousins and Carr here last week and both produced big numbers considering their low prices. Looking to Week 11, Derek Carr's price creeped up again (to $6,300), but he remans a nice bargain option. Russell Wilson ($5,900) has struggled behind a poor offensive line. But his rushing ability gives him a lot of upside and the price is falling to levels where the value may be too good to pass up. Tyrod Taylor ($5,200) is another strong option against a New England defense that has given up some big passing games this season (including an earlier game by Taylor). 

RUNNING BACKS

Jeremy Langford was the key player at running back this week and his unexpected demolition of the talented St. Louis defense led to high finishes in the MIllionaire Maker for those few who used him in Week 10. Langford appeared on rosters primarily as a RB2 and was largely responsible for the ridiculous 7.3x multiple for RB2s on the top rosters. Overall, the RB2s averaged 34 points at a price of just $4,690. 

The production from the RB1 spot was much more modest. Even on the top rosters, the average score was just 23.7 points at a price of $6,020 (3.9x). Heading into Sunday, it looked like a week where the higher-priced running backs would dominate. But most of the highest scores came from the lower-priced backs like Langford, Charcandrick West and Matt Jones.

The one top back who really produced in Week 10 was Adrian Peterson (32.6 points). Interestingly, his price fell $300 for Week 11 to just $6,800. He makes for a strong option facing an up-and-down Green Bay defense. Charcandrick West also saw his price fall $300 (to $4,500) despite a big Week 10 and a favorable Week 11 matchup against San Diego. He should be the "chalk" play of the week at the position. Langford ($5,600) saw his price shoot up significantly and is likely to see his ownership levels increase significantly as well. But if Matt Forte remains out, he is a nice option for the third straight week. 

WIDE RECEIVERS

For the second-straight week Antonio Brown dominated scoring (40.9) points. He was the most common WR1 option on the top rosters (45%). Overall, the WR1s averaged 29.8 points at a sky-high $7,795 average price (3.8x). The WR2s averaged 25.3 points at an average price of $6,100 (4.1x). The WR3s averaged just 20.1 points at a price of $4,715 (4.3x). The multiple of ~4.1x overall at the WR position for the top finishers was significantly lower than we've seen in recent weeks. Most of the "chalk" options at the position (Allen Robinson, Randall Cobb, etc.) underperformed expectations in Week 10 and led to much lower scores. Don't expect that trend to continue in Week 11. 

There appears to be plenty of value at the receiver position in Week 11. It starts in New England where the injury to Julian Edelman leaves Danny Amendola ($4,000) and Brandon LaFell ($4,300) vastly underpriced. Davante Adams ($4,600) has seen 32 targets over the last two weeks and looks like a great bargain as well. Mike Evans ($7,300) has 276 receiving yards over the past two weeks and faces a nice matchup against Philadelphia. 

TIGHT END

There was less homogeneity at the tight end position on the top rosters in Week 10 than we've seen in recent weeks. Rob Gronkowski was the highest owned at just 35%. Overall, the top finishers averaged just 16.4 points at TE despite a price of $5,890 (2.8x). Choosing the wrong tight end in Week 10 was not as costly as it has been through most of the 2015 season.

FLEX

The Flex spot was split fairly evenly between running backs (50%) and wide receivers (40%) with Rob Gronkowski also appearing as a flex on a pair of top rosters. Overall, the position averaged 27.5 points at a price of $5,655 (4.9x). But those averages were inflated by the fact that 30% of the top rosters had Jeremy Langford in the flex spot. The other 70% averaged well below 4.0x. 

TOURNAMENT PLAYER INFORMATION

The top five finishers were all single entries and the Millionaire Maker leaderboard again had a distinctly amateur feel to it in Week 10. With the season now past the halfway mark, it seems safe to say that the fear of the contest being dominated by the professionals entering massive amounts of lineups this year were unfounded.