Herein is another edition of “Fantasy Draft Dominator” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on FantasyDraft and make recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments. We wanted to try a slightly different format for Week 7 to take advantage of the fact that FantasyDraft is one of the few sites in the industry that allows you to see Ownership Percentage after roster lock but before the player’s game kicks off. To leverage this unique opportunity, we have compiled Ownership Percentages from the biggest Thursday GPP to help lend insight into both tournament and cash-game strategy for the Sunday Contests.
Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. Cash game players are the top overall values of the week and can be used without regard to expected ownership percentage. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games. Expected ownership levels is also a major consideration in determining the top GPP options. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he will fall into both categories.
FantasyDraft Dominator will be posted each Friday morning, but will also be updated throughout the week as new information becomes available. Should you have any questions or players you want to discuss, hit me up on twitter (@hindery).
Thursday GPP Ownership Percentages
Quarterback
Cash Game Considerations
While Jameis Winston ($11,200) will be very popular as a cheap option, you can get plenty of exposure to the Bucs passing game by rostering Mike Evans. It makes better sense to pay up just slightly for an elite option like Matt Ryan ($13,200) or Andrew Luck ($12,700). Both are at home in games that are expected to be high scoring and both have played at a much higher level than Winston through seven weeks.
Matt Ryan (Cash and GPP; $13,200) Atlanta is yet again expected to be playing in the week’s highest-scoring game according game to Vegas game totals. Atlanta is favored by 2.5 points in a game with a 52.5-point total (27.5 implied total for the Falcons). Green Bay is one of the stingiest run defenses in the league, so expect Atlanta to do most of its damage through the air. The Packers are allowing just 3.1 yards per rushing attempt but are allowing a healthy 7.3 yards per passing attempt. Ryan has averaged 2.3 touchdowns and 335 passing yards per game the season (370 passing yards per game at home) and his efficiency numbers have been off the charts good (9.4 yards per attempt. The last time these two teams faced each other, they combined for 80 points in a 43-37 shootout. Ryan threw for 375 yards and four touchdowns. The quarterback pricing is fairly tightly clustered this week, making Ryan an excellent cash game play. For the second-straight week, he is going to be one of the highest-owned GPP plays (with almost everyone stacking with Julio Jones). It’s certainly not a bad play, but even if it hits, you will still have a lot of work to do to separate from the rest of the Ryan-Jones stacks.
Jameis Winston (Cash; $11,200)Winston is likely to be the most highly-owned option at quarterback in cash games due to his low salary and the perception that Oakland's pass defense is terrible. After getting torched the first two weeks, Oakland’s pass defense has also done well in all but one game since The Raiders definitely given up some monster games to elite passers, but they've been very good against non-elite passers. Against the three QBs they've faced priced $12,000 or more, Oakland has given up an average of 393 passing yards and 3.7 passing touchdowns. That's 32.9 FantasyDraft Points per game. These games were mostly early in the season: Week 1 (Brees), Week 2 (Ryan) and Week 5 (Rivers). Against the four lower-priced QBs they have faced (all $12,000 or less), Oakland has allowed 246 passing yards and just 0.5 passing touchdowns per game. That 13.7 FantasyDraft points. This group of QBs includes Mariota (Week 2), Flacco (Week 4), A. Smith (Week 6) and Bortles (Week 7). While the overall numbers against the Raiders are appealing, Winston seems to fit more with the second group of QBs who haven't produced against Oakland than the first (if you buy into this huge split being non-random). If you can afford to pay up to Ryan or Luck, it may be worth the extra $1,500-$2,000.
Andrew Luck (Cash and GPP; $12,700) Somewhat quietly, Luck is off to the best start of his career. Through seven weeks, his quarterback rating is 98.3, nearly 25 points higher than last season. Luck’s career passer rating coming into this year was 85.0. He is completing 64.9 percent of his passes this season. His previous career-high is 61.7 percent. Luck’s interception rate is 1.4 percent in 2016. That would be the lowest of his career. Luck was especially great last week. Down three of his four top pass catchers, his starting left guard and facing a Titans defense amongst the league’s best at getting to the quarterback, Luck was flawless. It was the type of effort (353 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions) that reminded everyone that Luck doesn’t need a great line or a deep corp of pass catchers to get the job done in a big way. He will not be flying so far under the radar this week, but is in an even better spot on the fast track at home. Luck has averaged 346 passing yards and 2.3 passing touchdowns per game at home this season. He also should be getting some key weapons back. Donte Moncrief said he would “be surprised’’ if he’s not back for the Chiefs. Kansas City is a gambling defense that generates a lot of takeovers, but they have been giving up big games to top opposing passers. Drew Brees just torched them for 367 yards and 3 touchdowns and Ben Roethlisberger destroyed the Chiefs for 5 passing touchdowns in a primetime matchup. Despite an expected bump in ownership, Luck still profiles as an excellent cash and GPP option in Week 8.
Running Backs
Cash Game Considerations
Devontae Booker ($7,300) is a lock. Beyond Booker, it becomes more interesting as there are a number of strong options worth considering but nobody else who qualifies as a “must-play.” Spencer Ware ($12,700), Devonta Freeman ($12,300), and David Johnson ($14,500) will be the most popular options. But Ezekiel Elliott ($13,700) and Christine Michael ($13,700) are certainly in play as well.
Devontae Booker (Cash and GPP; $7,300) The chalkiest play of the week, but for good reason. As we’ve seen in recent weeks with Jaquizz Rodgers, it makes little sense to fade an obvious play when the pricing is way off. With C.J. Anderson out and coming off an excellent Monday night performance that didn’t factor into the pricing, Booker is $4,000 cheaper than he should be as the lead back in a solid matchup. When Denver faced San Diego earlier this season, Booker and Anderson combined for 124 yards and six catches. Last week, the Chargers allowed 174 total yards and five catches to the Falcons duo of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. While Kapri Bibbs should get a handful of touches, Booker is expected to be the workhorse back for Denver and see in the neighborhood of 20 touches.
Spencer Ware (Cash and GPP; $12,700) Jamaal Charles had a setback with his knee and touched the ball just once last week. With Charles ailing, Ware has excelled as the workhorse back. He has touched the ball 45 times over the past two weeks and produced a whopping 294 total yards with a pair of touchdowns. The matchup against Indianapolis is sweet. The Colts rank dead last in FootballOutsiders DVOA against the run. The Chiefs are favored on the road against the Colts and have a healthy team total of 26 points.
Devonta Freeman (Cash and GPP; $12,300) The Falcons have one of the week’s highest team totals (27.5 points) as a home favorite against the Packers. Tevin Coleman is out and Freeman essentially has the backfield to himself. While the Packers run defense has been mostly excellent (3.1 yards per carry), Freeman is also heavily involved in the passing attack. He has 125 targets in 22 games over the last two season. Freeman also leads all NFL running backs with 10 red zone targets (only four targets less than Emmanuel Sanders for overall league lead). Freeman should get all the touches he can handle for a home favorite in what is expected to be a shootout and his passing game usage makes him essentially game script-proof. He makes for an excellent play in both cash and GPP formats.
Wide Receiver
Cash Game Considerations
Mike Evans ($15,300) will be by far the chalkiest option and it probably makes sense to go with the crowd here because his target load has been so extraordinary in recent weeks. Julio Jones ($18,000) and T.Y. Hilton ($14,900) will be the two other most popular options at the top of the pricing range. Jones has the better matchup if you can afford him. In the mid-priced range, Green Bay’s Randall Cobb ($12,000) and Ty Montgomery ($10,500) will be very popular (assuming Cobb’s hamstring injury isn’t serious).
Mike Evans (Cash; $15,300) Evans leads the NFL with 12.5 targets per game. That’s a huge number and he leads the field by almost two targets per game (over T.Y. Hilton at 10.9). He has had at least 11 targets in each of his last five games. Not only is Evans getting targeted heavily, but they are high-value targets. 28 have come on deep targets and nine have come in the red zone. The Raiders have allowed seven 100-yard receivers in seven games. Tampa has a team total of 25 points against a Raiders defense that is allowing 303 passing yards per game.
Ty Montgomery ($10,500) The Packers offense has been rejuvenated with Montgomery playing primarily at running back and providing difficult passing game matchups to opposing defenses. The pass-heavy approach (especially on shorter routes) should be especially effective this weekend against Atlanta. The Falcons have allowed the most receiving yards and second most catches to opposing backfields. Montgomery has had 10 catches in both games since moving primarily to running back and makes for a strong play just on his receiving projections. However, where the real value comes in is that Montgomery is also expected to see somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 carries as well (he had 9 for 60 yards last week, including some work near the goal line). Montgomery makes for an excellent play in both cash and GPP games this week.
T.Y. Hilton ($14,900) Hilton is second in the league in targets per game (10.9) behind only Mike Evans. Even with Donte Moncrief potentially set to return from injury, Hilton will remain the guy Andrew Luck looks to first on most of his drop backs. Hilton should see a decent amount of single coverage against the Chiefs, who will likely shadow him with Marcus Peters. Peters is an excellent cornerback, but has a well-earned reputation as a gambler who will jump routes and get his hands on the ball often, but also give up some big plays when he gets too aggressive. The last time Indianapolis and Kansas City met was a playoff shootout in January of 2014. Hilton posted a ridiculous 13-224-2 line. Hilton has posted 29 or more FantasyDraft points in three of his last five games, making him an excellent GPP play. His average of just under 11 targets per game makes him a solid cash game play as well.
Tight End
Cash Game Considerations
If Josh McCown is starting in Cleveland, Gary Barnidge ($6,400) makes sense as the top inexpensive option over C.J. Fiedorowicz ($5,600), who could be fool’s gold despite heavy usage in recent weeks. Jimmy Graham is still underpriced at just $11,400 and is the best option if you can afford to pay up a little bit to fit him in.
Jimmy Graham (Cash and GPP; $11,400) Somewhat surprisingly Graham has emerged as the go-to option in the Seahawks passing game. Despite a serious injury, he looks every bit as athletic and dominant as he did in prime years in New Orleans. There is certainly an intriguing “narrative street” angle here, with Graham returning to New Orleans where he was shockingly traded away one year after signing an extension following relatively contentious negotiations. The matchup couldn’t get much better for Graham. New Orleans defense ranks 29th overall, 28th against the pass and 26th against the tight end. Graham has seen at least 8 targets in each of his last four games and has 355 receiving yards over that stretch. Graham is a strong pay up option in cash games and is an excellent GPP option, especially stacked with Russell Wilson, who is flying under the radar despite an excellent matchup with the Saints.
C.J. Fiedorowicz ($5,600) Fiedorowicz looks like he is going to be the most popular option in both cash and GPP formats this week. He has seen at least seven targets in each of his last three outings. Detroit has been awful against the tight end (27th in DVOA) and Houston has a relatively solid implied team total of 23.5. However, this is a potential let down spot for Fiedorowicz. He has thrived in the last three weeks in part because the Texans have fallen behind early in each game. Houston is a home favorite, so the game script may not be as favorable. Fiedorowicz’s rise has also coincided with Will Fuller’s hamstring injury. Fuller didn’t play in Week 6 and was not fully recovered in Week 7. With Fuller having another six days to recover, he should be back closer to 100% and we could see the offense flow through Miller, Hopkins and Fuller with little leftover for the secondary options like Fiedorowicz. With ownership inflated due to everyone looking for the next Jack Doyle, Fiedorowicz is worth fading in Week 8.
