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Week 7 GPP Ownership Percentages

Quarterback

Quarterback Cash Game Considerations

While there is value at the position, with Andy Dalton ($11,300), Kirk Cousins ($11,000) and other in the $11K range having attractive matchups, Matt Ryan ($13,700) is not so expensive that it makes any sense to fade him in cash games and is rightly the chalk play in Week 7. Tom Brady ($14,900) also makes good sense. He has been a monster in his first two weeks back after suspension

Top Plays

Matt Ryan (Cash and GPP; $13,700) In Week 7, the Falcons are 6-point favorites over the Chargers. The game opened with an already high 50.5 over/under, but heavy betting on the over quickly pushed the game total all the way up to 53, giving Atlanta a monster implied team total of 29.5 points. In six previous games as a home favorite with a game total of over 50, Ryan has averaged 336 passing yards and 2 touchdowns. Ryan has been extraordinary this season, averaging 9.4 yards per attempt and 330 passing yards per game. Ryan is the week’s safest bet to hit the 300-yard bonus. In fact, David Dodds projects Ryan for 305 passing yards. In GPPs, Matt Ryan-Julio Jones stacks are going to be incredibly popular. It’s a potent duo in a great matchup, but if 10-15% of the field is running the same stack, you will have to look to differentiate with some lower-owned plays at other positions to get any separation.

Tom Brady (Cash and GPP; $14,900) If Ryan-Jones is the chalkiest GPP stack of Week 7, Brady-Gronkowski will not be far behind. Brady has averaged 391 passing yards and 3 touchdowns in his two games back from suspension. Brady torched the Steelers for 288 yards and 4 touchdowns last season. The injury to Ben Roethlisberger turns this game from a likely shootout into a matchup that the Patriots should win. The Steelers game plan will certainly be to try to shorten the game with a run-heavy game plan, so the ability of the Patriots defense to stop the run and force Landry Jones to beat them will be key for Brady. If New England can limit Le’Veon Bell and force Landry Jones to try to beat them, Brady could have plenty of scoring opportunities on short fields. With an implied team total of 28 points of the Patriots, Brady is a strong option in all formats. In GPPs, a contrarian stack with some combination of Martellus Bennett, Chris Hogan, James White or Julian Edelman may make sense since Gronkwoski’s ownership will be extremely high.

Andy Dalton (Cash and GPP; $11,300) Dalton has been helped somewhat in the past by the “QB Wins” stat, because the Bengals have always been near the top of the standings in his six years with the team. The opposite is true this year. With the team struggling to a 2-4 record through a brutal early schedule, Dalton’s excellent play has gone unnoticed. He ranks right between Derek Carr and Drew Brees with a QBR of 63.9. Dalton is also third in the league with 1,757 passing yards and has only two interceptions through four games. Week 7 sets up very well for Dalton. First, Dalton should get his go-to red zone target, Tyler Eifert back from injury. Dalton is averaging just 1.0 passing touchdowns per game this season after averaging 2.1 per game last season (before going down with an injury in Week 13). Second, the matchup with Cleveland is ideal. The Browns rank 26th in the league, allowing over 285 passing yards per game. Cleveland is also allowing 2.7 passing touchdowns against per game and has given up at lest 3 passing touchdowns to four straight opponents. At an extreme bargain price of $11,300, Dalton has a nice floor/ceiling combination and his GPP ownership should be well below the most popular options like Ryan and Brady.

Running Back

Running Back Cash Game Considerations

Jacquizz Rodgers ($8,500) and Demarco Murray ($13,700) are the chalk this week and should see ownership upward of 70% in cash games. Mike Gillislee ($6,000) is a cash game option due to his minimum price, but questions about his workload are enough to keep him out of “must-play” status.

Top Plays

Jacquizz Rodgers (Cash and GPP; $8,500) With Doug Martin suffering a setback in his attempted return from injury (and Charles Sims on injured reserve), Rodgers is again poised to receive the bulk of the work Tampa Bay. Against Carolina in Week 6, Rodgers racked up a ridiculous 35 touches. He rushed for 101 yards on 30 carries and also caught five passes for another 28 yards. Rodgers was basically an every down back, playing 68 of 73 snaps. Backup Peyton Barber played the remaining five snaps. With such ridiculously high usage and pass game involvement, Rodgers would be a strong play at this pricing regardless of matchup. However, when you add to the bargain that he gets to face the San Francisco 49ers, he becomes ever more of a must-play option. The 49ers are dead last, allowing 174 rushing yards per game. The run defense has been especially bad in the weeks since stud linebacker Navorro Bowman went on injured reserve, with Buffalo gashing them for 312 rushing yards and four touchdowns last week.

Demarco Murray (Cash and GPP; $13,700) Murray is the clear “pay up” option at running back in Week 7 given his optimal matchup against the Colts porous run defense. After seeing top running backs dominate over the past two weeks, Murray’s ownership is (unsurprisingly) through the roof. In fact, his 64% in Thursday GPPs is the highest of the entire season (previous high was Le’Veon Bell at 53% last week). Murray makes sense in both cash and tournaments due to his solid floor (almost a lock for 20+ touches) and strong upside (touchdown potential). Murray has scored six times already this season (with two multi-touchdown games) and Indianapolis has allowed nine scores to opposing backs. In cash games, the only real negative with Murray is that his usage in the passing game has decreased significantly in recent weeks. He’s seen two or less targets twice in the last three games. Murray was held without a catch in Week 6 and without his short touchdown, would have mustered just 6.3 points. In GPPs, with ownership through the roof, it could make sense to pivot to cheaper running backs and then roster similarly priced, low-owned receivers like Brandon Marshall (3%) and T.Y. Hilton (2%) as flex options.

Mike Gillislee (Cash and GPP; $6,000) With LeSean McCoy trending heavily towards being out (Josina Anderson of ESPN has reported that she was told McCoy is out this week and could miss multiple weeks), Gillislee presents an extreme value opportunity as a minimum-priced fill in. The first consideration with Gillislee is his talent. He was an impressive prospect to many dynasty owners coming out of Florida as a 5th round pick for the Dolphins. He had 1300 yards, 11 TDs at Florida and showed a real toughness and desire as a workhorse back in the SEC. More importantly, Gillislee has looked good over the last two years in Buffalo. He has averaged 6.0 yards per carry on 64 rushing attempts over the past two seasons. He has also shown a nose for the end zone, with six touchdowns on just 73 touches. The matchup against Miami is not great, but the Dolphins who has given up yardage in bulk against teams determined to rung the ball. Miami allowed 120+ yards a to LeGarrette Blount and DeMarco Murray when New England and Tennessee committed to the run game. Buffalo will certainly do that. The Bills run game has been one of the league’s best, averaging a ridiculous 5.6 yards per carry and churning out 166.5 yards per game on the ground. Buffalo is favored by 2.5 points on the road, so it is also a solid game script for Gillislee. The only concern with Gillislee is just how much of McCoy’s workload he will pick up. Gillislee will get the start, but there is a chance he ends up as just one piece of a committee approach, so watching the news out of Buffalo over the next few days will be key before locking Gillislee in to cash game lineups.

Spencer Ware (GPP; $11,000) The return of Jamaal Charles has clouded the backfield situation for the Chiefs. But if you are Andy Reid, how do you go away from Spencer Ware as the lead back? He’s averaged just under 5.5 YPC over the past two seasons. More importantly, the Chiefs have won 13 of their last 15 regular season games by riding Ware. Ware also shown a lot of improvement as a pass catcher and is averaging 12.2 yards per target this season on 3.8 targets per game. Any tidbits we can glean out of Kansas City about how the backs are expected split touches in the days leading up to the game will be key, but the lack of clarity also provides a real opportunity in tournaments to get Ware at depressed ownership levels. If we knew that Ware would easily lead the backfield in touches again, he would be the chalkiest cash game play on the slate. The Chiefs are 6-point home favorites with a 28-point implied team total against an awful Saints defense. New Orleans has allowed a whopping 11 touchdowns to opposing running backs (10 rushing and one passing) through five games. Ware found the end zone and put up 163 total yards last week and has similar upside in Week 7, making him a great boom/bust option for GPPs. 

Wide Receiver

Wide Receiver Cash Game Considerations

Julio Jones ($17,300) is almost a must-play in a great home matchup. Mike Evans ($14,700) and A.J. Green ($16,300) are also great players in excellent spots who are very likely to see double-digit targets. Pierre Garcon ($7,300) is the best pay down option, but you do not necessarily have to go there due to the value at other positions.

Top Plays

Julio Jones (Cash and GPP; $17,300) In his last home game, Julio Jones exploded for 300 receiving yards against the Panthers. Since then, he had a down game against double coverage from the Broncos top corners and game script allowed the Falcons to lean on their running backs. Against Seattle last week, Jones had an incredibly strong performance catching 7-of-9 targets for 139 yards and a touchdown despite being shadowed by elite corner Richard Sherman for much of the day. In his return home, Jones is again primed for a monster game. He is the go-to player for Matt Ryan in the week’s best spot. The game opened with an already high 50.5 over/under, but heavy betting on the over quickly pushed the game total all the way up to 53, giving Atlanta a monster implied team total of 29.5 points. In cash games, there is enough value at other positions to make Jones a must-play. In tournaments, his ownership is also going to be through the roof, so he is a reasonable fade. Especially with receivers like Brandon Marshall (3%) and T.Y. Hilton (2%) flying so far under the radar.

Mike Evans (Cash and GPP; $14,700) Evans may be the best bet in the league in terms of volume. He is a near-lock for double-digit targets and could easily see 15+. The 49ers play at the fastest pace in the league, which has led to their defense having to play nearly 70 snaps per game. The Buccaneers are one of the most pass-heavy teams in the NFL (41.4 attempts per game) and in an up-tempo game and down to their 3rd running back, could sling the ball around a lot and Evans will see a huge chunk of those passes go his way. Over the past four weeks, Evans has racked up a ridiculous 54 targets (13.5 per game). With Vincent Jackson and Charles Sims now on injured reserve and Austin Seferian-Jenkins cut after his DUI, the Bucs almost have to force feed targets to Evans. While his efficiency may suffer somewhat, Evans is a talented player and if he gets 12+ targets as expected should have a great shot at hitting cash value and a decent shot at topping 100 yards and finding the end zone, which makes him a strong GPP play as well.

Brandon Marshall (GPP; $14,300) The Ravens are a classic “funnel defense,” allowing just 69.7 rushing yards per game. The Jets have struggled to establish anything at all on the ground in recent weeks, which could force Geno Smith to air it out early and often. With Eric Decker on injured reserve, Marshall should see a big chunk of the targets go his direction. Marshall unsurprisingly saw just six targets last week due to shadow coverage from the league’s most talented cornerback, Patrick Peterson. The Jets have to force feed Marshall the ball this week and hope he makes plays. If Jimmy Smith is unable to play (he is in concussion protocol), the matchup is especially strong for Marshall. Whenever you can get a player with Marshall’s talent at sub-5% GPP ownership, you have to take advantage. That is especially true when that player is in a sneaky good spot to see heavy volume, like Marshall is in Week 7.

Tight End

Tight End Cash Game Considerations

Rob Gronkowski ($13,600) is the top option coming off of back-to-back 100+ yard receiving games and the value at running back makes is fairly easy to fit him in. Hunter Henry ($7,100) is the chalkiest of the lower-priced options, but there are a number of cheap options at the position worth considering.

Rob Gronkowski (Cash and GPP; $13,600) After a slow start to the season due to injury and the absence of Tom Brady, the last two weeks were a reminder that Gronkowski is a transcendent talent. His career numbers are staggering; he has averaged .78 touchdowns per game (12.4 if projected over a full season) and has scored on 10.7% of his career targets. If you project him for 8-10 targets this week against the Steelers, odds are pretty good he finds the end zone. Gronkowski is clearly Brady’s go-to option and with Brady on fire to start the season (averaging 391 yards and 3 touchdowns per game), the big tight end has exploded. Gronkowski has 271 receiving yards over the past two weeks. With GPP ownership north of 30%, he is a potential fade in that format. However, his upside is just so high that he is worth paying up for even in tournaments.

Defense

New England Patriots (Cash and GPP; $5,600) The Patriots Defense will likely be the chalkiest cash-game defense. And for good reason. The Patriots are priced as if they were facing superstar quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers offense that has averaged 27 PPG in recent years (and been even better at home). Instead, the Steelers are facing backup Landry Jones in a game where Pittsburgh’s implied team total is just under 20 points. Jones looked atrocious in the preseason, with a 4-INT performance against the Eagles a lowlight. The Steelers were able to keep games close without Roethlisberger last season by running on 51% of their plays. If this game remains close, the Patriots defense could disappoint with fewer opportunities to rush the passer and generate sacks and turnovers. However, if New England’s offense sprints out to a big early lead, Pittsburgh will have no choice but to let Landry Jones take some chances downfield. Thus, a Tom Brady-Patriots Defense stack makes a lot of sense. A big Brady game provides the exact game script you are looking for to get a big game from the Patriots DST.

Denver Broncos (Cash and GPP; $7,400) In terms of FootballOutsiders DVOA rankings, the Broncos Defense vs. the Texans offense is the biggest mismatch on the slate. (38% DVOA spread in favor of the Broncos.) Beyond the advanced statistics, there is a clear narrative angle here that should give us confidence that we will see one of the league’s elite defenses playing with focus and anger. Brock Osweiler spurned a big contract offer from Denver to head to Houston this offseason and angered former teammates by his actions and further exacerbated the situation by not showing up to the 2015 team’s ring ceremony. “We know he left us. It is what it is,’’ said Denver Broncos cornerback Chris Harris Jr “I’m pretty sure he wants to win. We want to beat him bad. Get a lot of interceptions.’’ Brandon Marshall was also blunt in his intentions. “It’s competition and we want to shut him down. Just because it’s Brock. We know Brock. He came from here and we just want to kill him. That’s what we want to do.’’

Cincinnati Bengals (Cash and GPP; $7,100) In the last three Bengals-Browns matchups, Cleveland has scored 0, 10 and 3 points (4.3 PPG). Cleveland’s implied team total is just under 18 points. It will be worth watching to see if Terrelle Pryor is able to play. Should he be out, the Bengals will be able to sell out to stop Isaiah Crowell without much fear of giving up big plays in the passing game. The Browns are giving up 3.2 sacks per game. Bengals have been generating a solid 2.2 sacks per game and should have a major advantage in the interior. Top Browns guard Joel Bitonio on IR and start DT Geno Atkins facing a trio of subpar interior lineman.