Herein is another edition of “Fantasy Draft Dominator” where we will examine the salaries of players at each position on FantasyDraft and make recommendations for both your cash games and tournaments. Below you will find a list of recommended players for both formats. Cash game players are the top overall values of the week and can be used without regard to expected ownership percentage. GPP players generally have high-upside, but are too risky for cash games. Expected ownership levels is also a major consideration in determining the top GPP options. In some instances, the value for a player is so strong, he will fall into both categories.
FantasyDraft Dominator will be posted each Thursday morning, but will also be updated throughout the week as new information becomes available. Should you have any questions or players you want to discuss, hit me up on twitter (@hindery).
Quarterback
Cash Game Considerations
With the quarterback pricing bunched tightly together, the easy play is to pay the slight premium for one of the two elite options on the slate, Tom Brady ($14,100) or Ben Roethlisberger ($13,600). With high ownership likely for both, it is too big of a risk for too little reward to go any other direction in cash games.
Top Cash-Game Options
Tom Brady (Cash and GPP; $14,100) The Patriots boast the highest implied team total in Week 5 at 28.5 points. The Browns are equally susceptible against the run (28th in DVOA) as against the pass (21st). There is a possibility we see a “Blount game,” in which the Patriots pound Cleveland on the ground. While that possibility is somewhat concerning, there are a number of factors that point to the Patriots also doing plenty of damage through the air. First, the Patriots need to get Brady up to speed quickly. The Bengals and their stout rushing defense await in a crucial Week 6 matchup. It makes sense for Brady to try to knock off as much rust as possible in a game where New England is a double-digit favorite. Second, the “narrative street” angle of an angry, motivated Tom Brady looking to dish out punishment is worth considering. While it can be dangerous to go too far with these type of angles (especially in cash games), this story line is so obvious and we have seen it play out exactly as expected multiple times in the past that we can’t just ignore the possibility of Brady having a monster game. While Brady was the highest-owned quarterback in Thursday GPPs (18%), the ownership at the position is flat enough (nobody over 20%) to simply play who you like in tournaments.
Ben Roethlisberger (Cash and GPP; $13,600) While Brady has the narrative angle in his favor, the numbers point toward Roethlisberger as the slightly better cash-game option. The Jets are brutal against the pass (31st), but very strong against the run (3rd). Pittsburgh is going to have to throw the ball early and often against the Jets stout run defense. Darrelle Revis is questionable and has not practiced all week while dealing with a hamstring injury. "Right now, he's hurt," Bowles said. "Unless he gets better, we'll go right up until game time. He's been progressing and feeling better. We'll see on Sunday morning." The Jets already poor secondary would have to further shuffle without Revis. The Steelers implied team total of 27.75 ranks as one of the highest on the slate (less than one point behind the Patriots). Over the past 2+ seasons (16 games), Roethlisberger is averaging an astounding 340 passing yards and 2.88 touchdowns per game at home.
Top GPP Options
Derek Carr (GPP; $12,700) Carr is quietly emerging as one of the best young quarterbacks in the game. Through four weeks, he has thrown nine touchdowns and just one interception. Against a stout Baltimore defense that ranks 4th in DVOA, Carr threw four touchdown passes last week and led an impressive game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter. He has a very favorable matchup this week against San Diego in a game that has the highest over/under of the week (50 points). The Chargers pass defense is without star cornerback Jason Verrett, who is out for the season with a partially torn ACL. Casey Hayward is a solid cornerback, but he will only be able to cover one of the Raiders dangerous receivers, which leaves Carr with an exploitable matchup on the other side of the field. Also working in Carr’s favor is the expected absence of Latavius Murray, who is dealing with a foot injury and unlikely to play. Backup rookies DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard are both slightly undersized and excel as pass catchers.
Aaron Rodgers (GPP; $14,500) Green Bay is expected to score against the Giants, with an implied team total of 27.5 that is amongst the highest on the slate. For the second straight game it appears as if the Giants will be without three of their top five defensive backs. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (groin) and rookie Eli Apple (hamstring), the No. 2 and No. 3 cornerbacks, aren’t expected to play. FS Darian Thompson will likely a third game in a row with a sprained foot. Washington’s Kirk Cousins (106.4) Minnesota’s Sam Bradford (101.9) both put up gaudy passer ratings against the Giants defense. Rodgers finally seemed to get his season on track in Week 3 against the Lions, throwing for four touchdowns in the first half before taking his foot off the gas. With a bye week for the offensive line to get healthy and a home date against a beat up Giants defense, we could see another big game for Rodgers. With both Brady and Roethlisberger priced cheaper, Rodgers GPP ownership of just 10% in Thursday tournaments makes him a strong option for tournaments.
Running Back
Cash Game Considerations
Jordan Howard ($10,200) and Jerick McKinnon ($7,800) provide rare value on a slate with tight pricing. Adding at least one to your cash lineup is a good risk/reward proposition that allows some flexibility to fit in some of the premium players on the slate. LeVeon Bell ($14,100) and C.J. Anderson ($12,900) are strong options as well, though there are some similarly strong option at receiver in the same price range that also must be considered.
Top Cash-Game Options
LeVeon Bell (Cash; $14,100) On paper, this isn’t a great matchup for Bell. The Jets have the 3rd best run defense in the NFL according to FootballOutsiders DVOA. However, Bell is one of the few running backs in the league who is such a multi-dimensional threat, he is essentially matchup proof. According to ProFootball Focus writer Nathan Jahnke, Bell lined up at WR 12 of his first 32 snaps in Week 4. He is not only the Steelers lead running back, he also functions as the de facto #2 WR. Bell caught five passes in his first game back, despite Pittsburgh jumping out to a huge lead early. Against a poor Jets pass defense, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Bell catch 7 or 8 passes. Because of his heavy workload (especially in the passing game), Bell is one of the strongest cash game options on the slate. Due to the lack of great options on the main slate at running back, expect Bell to see ownership of 35-40% in GPPs, which makes him a reasonable fade in tournaments.
CJ Anderson (Cash and GPP; $12,900) The Falcons defense struggles against both the run (25th in DVOA) and the pass (30th in DVOA). Denver’s team total of 26.5 is one of the highest on the slate and just two points less than New England’s 28.5 that many are salivating over. While recent matchups against Tampa and Cincinnati have forced Denver to rely on their passing game, this is at heart still a run first offense and a good chunk of those 26.5 points project to be scored on the ground. The most intriguing aspect of this matchup for Anderson though is how much the Falcons defense gives up in the passing game to opposing running backs. Through four games, Atlanta has given up 38 receptions to opposing backs (9.5 receptions per game). This is a feature, not a bug, of the Falcons defensive scheme. Atlanta is determined to keep wide receivers from getting behind the defense, keeping their safeties deep and attempting to play a “bend but don’t break” style. The underneath is wide open against the Falcons for offenses willing to be patient and exploit it. Expect Anderson to be heavily involved as a receiver this week. Atlanta is also very beat up at linebacker. Starting middle linebacker Deion Jones has an ankle injury. Sean Weatherspoon (ruptured right Achilles) was placed on injured reserve. De’Vondre Campbell (ankle) and Paul Worrilow (groin) are also injured. With a GPP ownership projection of 12-18%, Anderson is not going to be overly chalky.
Jerick McKinnon (Cash and GPP; $7,800) On a slate where value options are scarce, McKinnon stands out as the top sub-$8,000 option. McKinnon has averaged 19 touches per game in the two games since Adrian Peterson went down with an injury. His usage was especially encouraging last week against the Giants. He rushed 18 times for 85 yards and a touchdown and was also targeted 5 times in the passing game. The Vikings are 6-point home favorites, which sets McKinnon up for another nice game script. Plus, the best way to attack Houston is on the ground. The Texans defense ranks 5th in DVOA against the pass, but just 30th against the run.
Jordan Howard (Cash; $10,200) According to John Fox, Howard was outstanding in his Week 4 debut and “we'll ride him pretty good moving forward.” Howard played 63 snaps last week and touched the ball 26 times. He is as clearly established as a workhorse going into Week 5 as any back in the league. The Bears have a solid, if unspectacular, team total of 21.5 points that ranks in the middle of the pack this week. However, the matchup is a strong one according to advanced DVOA stats. Chicago has been about a league-average offense through four weeks (19th overall), while Indianapolis has been a horrendous defense (30th overall). With Howard’s solid involvement in the passing game (10 targets over past two weeks), he is mostly immune to game script should Chicago fall behind early. Howard is a less appealing option in GPPs with ownership projected in the 35-40% range based upon Thursday numbers.
Top GPP Options
Lamar Miller (GPP; $11,900) Miller is averaging a ridiculous 26.5 touches per game and has seen at least 22 touches in every ballgame. Despite the heavy usage, he has seen his price fall each week and is now RB9 in terms of pricing for Week 5. Miller is completely off the fantasy radar this week primarily due to poor touchdown luck. Incredibly, he has yet to find the end zone despite racking up 106 touches. The Vikings defense is excellent and is going to be very highly-owned in GPPs, which also helps to push down Miller’s ownership. He was owned in just 1% of Thursday night GPP lineups. To get a player with Miller’s talent and extreme usage at anywhere near such ridiculously low percentage is a sharp move in GPPs.
Wide Receiver
Cash Game Considerations
Unlike some previous weeks, strong bargain options are few and far between. Steve Smith Sr. ($10,500) and Terrelle Pryor ($10,900) are reasonable plays, but the stronger move is to look for flex values at running back or tight end and pay up at receiver. Antonio Brown is expensive at $18,600, but his floor/ceiling combination is unmatched and makes him almost a must-play at home. Julian Edelman ($12,600) and Brandon Marshall ($13,300) are strong WR2 options.
Top Cash-Game Options
Antonio Brown (Cash and GPP; $18,600) When Brown is playing at home, he is almost a plug-and-play cash-game option. The salary is high and there are less obvious value plays, so it is not painless fitting the $18,600 into your lineups. But the reward is worth it. Brown is averaging more than a touchdown per game at home over the past four seasons. The matchup against the Jets is especially attractive. The Jets are 3rd in DVOA against the run but just 31st against the pass. Opposing offenses are almost forced to attack the Jets through the air and rely on pass-heavy game plans. While Brown is an obvious play for cash games, he is only an average option in GPPs. Some exposure is necessary if you are playing multiple lineups, but his ownership % could near 50%. Even if he goes off, you aren’t separating from the field. Pivoting to another highly-priced option like A.J. Green, Julio Jones, or Odell Beckham, Jr. makes good sense from a game-theory perspective.
Brandon Marshall (Cash and GPP; $13,300) Marshall has been slowed the past couple weeks by an injury, but looked good in practice. "He looks a lot better than he did last week," Bowles said. "He's fine." The Steelers have a top-10 ranked run defense in DVOA and have proven much more vulnerable against the pass in recent years. The Pittsburgh defense forces opposing offenses to try to beat them through the air. The Steelers have faced a whopping 44.5 pass attempts per game this season and given up 317 passing yards per game. Eric Decker is out, so Marshall should see a boatload of targets. He saw 12 passes last week, despite a brutal matchup against Richard Sherman. He should get even more opportunities in Week 5 and provides as high a floor as any receiver on the slate. Marshall isn’t flying under the radar in GPPs (14% ownership on Thursday), but is not so highly owned that he is not a good play in that format.
Julian Edelman (Cash and GPP; $12,600) Halfway through last season, Julian Edelman was on pace for 112 catches, 1,278 yards and 14 touchdowns. He was off to a fast start in his ninth game as well, before going down with an injury. Edelman started fast in the 2016 season as well, with 13 catches in six quarters. But once Jimmy Garoppolo was injured midway through Week 2, the Patriots pass offense (and Edelman’s production) ground to a halt. All of that is set to change with the return of Tom Brady, who will be fired up after serving a 4-game suspension. When both Brady and Edelman are healthy, Edelman will always be a top cash-game option. The health concerns surrounding Rob Gronkwoski’s hamstring only add to the appeal of Edelman, should be the go-to target for Brady. He is an especially strong play in Week 5 due to his depressed price after suffering through a couple bad weeks with rookie Jacoby Brissett helming the offense. This is probably the last week we will be able to roster Edelman under $13,000, so now is the time to take advantage of the bargain pricing.
Top GPP Options
Terrelle Pryor (GPP; $10,900) Despite a price that creeps higher by the week, Pryor is still underpriced given his talent and weekly opportunity. The 6’5, 230-pound speedster passed the eye test with flying colors against Josh Norman last week. He found the end zone again in Week 4 despite double coverage on the play. Pryor has averaged 10 targets per game on the season and has not seen less than nine in any game since Corey Coleman went down with an injury. Based upon the above, Pryor is certainly in play against a Patriots defense that ranks just 26th in pass defense DVOA. However, New England has a long record of successfully taking away an opposing team’s best pass-game option with specialized schemes. It wouldn’t be a surprise if the Patriots make it a point to neutralize Pryor and force Cleveland’s other receivers beat them. For this reason, Pryor fits best as a high-ceiling, low-floor GPP play in Week 5. His ownership was just 5% in Thursday’s GPPs despite his proven massive upside as the focal point of the Cleveland offense.
Sammie Coates Jr (GPP; $7,000) Sammie Coates Jr is an intriguing upside play in tournaments this week due to the ideal matchup and his big-play ability. Coates has hauled in a reception of at least 40 yards in every single game this season. The Jets pass defense ranks 31st in DVOA and is especially susceptible against the deep ball. Marqise Goodwin torched the Jets for 100+ yards and a score a few weeks ago and Coates has a realistic shot at a similar line. Playing Coates also makes sense as a leverage play with Antonio Brown’s GPP ownership likely to be sky high. Coates is also close to minimum value this week. With tight pricing, taking a swing on a guy like Coates in a GPP really opens up our cap to target other high-upside plays that would otherwise be difficult to fit in. At just 5% ownership in the Thursday tournaments, the risk/reward is favorable.
Odell Beckham (GPP; $16,000) Unless you have been living under a rock, you have heard plenty of the controversy surrounding Odell Beckham after he has lost his temper in back-to-back weeks. It seems like one of those tipping point weeks for Beckham where either he puts it all together and has a massive week or he continues the downward spiral. In other words, it is a perfect spot for GPPs. The matchup against Green Bay could not be much better from a fantasy perspective. The Packers are allowing just 1.8 rushing yards per attempt and force you to beat them through the air. Sam Shields out again with a concussion. Without Shields, the Packers will go with the same trio they’ve used the past two games: second-year players Damarious Randall, Quinten Rollins and LaDarius Gunter. Green Bay’s pass defense ranks 29th in yards allowed per game (307.3) and 31st in yards allowed per attempt (8.31). More importantly for Beckham, the Packers have been torched in back-to-back weeks by #1 receivers who play a similar game to Beckham. Green Bay gave up nine catches for 182 yards and a touchdown to Minnesota's Stefon Diggs and six catches for 205 yards and two touchdowns to Detroit's Marvin Jones. Jordy Nelson was very highly-owned (25%) in Thursday GPPs and Beckham was a very popular game stack alongside Nelson. For differentiation purposes, it’s a great week to avoid the game stack and play Beckham alone.
Tight End
Cash Game Considerations
As in Week 4, it is another good week to strongly consider a tight end in one of the flex spots. We have top tight end options like Zach Ertz and Kyle Rudolph at extreme bargain prices of just $7,000.
Top Cash-Game Options
Kyle Rudolph (Cash and GPP; $7,000) Perhaps because of the Monday night start, Rudolph’s price remains extremely low considering his production and usage. He has caught a touchdown pass in three straight games (every game Sam Bradford has started) and is clearly the go-to option in the red zone. Rudolph has also been a target hog, seeing at least seven targets in every game and averaging 8.25 targets per game. While Houston ranks first in DVOA against the tight end, the Texans also rank highly against opposing WR1s and WR2s. Given Rudolph’s talent, he may still be the least bad matchup for the Vikings passing game. Plus, at this pricing it will be hard for him to not hit his cash game value if he continues to see 8 targets per game.
Zach Ertz (Cash and GPP; $7,000) Detroit’s defense is awful across the board, but ranks especially poorly against opposing tight ends (29th in DVOA). It is a better matchup than Rudolph’s, but there is a bit more uncertainty regarding Ertz’s role. Ertz was heavily involved in Week 1 (6 receptions on 7 targets), but suffered a rib injury that kept him out of the next two games. We have a sample size of just one game for Ertz playing with Wentz and under this new coaching staff. We do however know that Ertz (along with Jordan Matthews) is one of the most talented pass catchers on the team and a go-to option for the offense. He should again see at least seven targets and given the fantastic matchup, is very likely to make good use of those targets.
Top GPP Options
Martellus Bennett (GPP; $7,400) Much of the attention will be focused upon Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman with Tom Brady’s return. However, Bennett was often Brady’s go-to option in OTAs and training camp. He is also the one pass catcher in New England we know is healthy, with both Edelman (foot) and Gronkowski (hamstring) battling injuries. While Bennett is not going to be a sneaky play in GPPs (13% ownership in Thursday GPPs), he still has high enough upside and touchdown potential to make him worth rolling out in GPP stacks with Brady.
Defense
Top Cash-Game Options
Minnesota Vikings (Cash; $6,700) Take the low-hanging fruit here in cash games. The Vikings Defense has been dominant, ranking 3rd in DVOA. More importantly from a fantasy perspective, the aggressive scheme puts pressure on the quarterback (15 sacks) and leads to big plays (13 turnovers, 3 touchdowns and a safety). The Week 5 matchup against Houston sets up well. Minnesota is a 6-point home favorite in what should be a low-scoring game (40.5 game total). Brock Osweiler has thrown more interceptions (6) than touchdowns (5) and Houston’s offense ranks dead last in DVOA.
Top GPP Options
Tennessee Titans (GPP; $4,600) In GPPs, hitting on a low-owned, low-priced defense provides a massive advantage over the field. The Titans fit into that category at just $4,600 and with projected ownership of only 2-3%. In addition, Tennessee has a number of positive indicators suggesting their viability as a strong GPP play. The Titans have been a solidly above-average defense according to DVOA, ranking 13th overall. On the other side, Miami is below average offensively, ranking 23rd. The Dolphins are fresh off of a miserable Thursday night performance against the Bengals. Miami hit on a long touchdown early, but was shutout the remainder of the game and had zero success stringing together drives. Miami has struggled to establish the running game (under 78 rushing yards per game), which should lead to the type of pass-heavy game plan that leads to sacks and turnovers. Lastly, weather could play a role. If this game kicks off as scheduled in Miami, it could be a wet field and sloppy conditions, which would make turnovers more likely.
Philadelphia Eagles (Cash and GPP; $5,600) Having had a bye in Week 4, the Eagles have played just three games so we have to take the advanced stats with an extra grain of salt due to small sample size. But on paper the Eagles have been the best team in the NFL and boast the league’s 2nd best defense according to DVOA (just fractionally behind the Seahawks). The Eagles have been able to get to the quarterback consistently, with at least three sacks in every game. Philadelphia has dominated opposing offenses, allowing just 9 PPG. The Lions offense started off hot, but has been trending downward. Matthew Stafford has thrown interceptions three straight weeks, including a pair against the mediocre Bears defense last week. There is also a nice “narrative street” angle, with former Lions head coach Jim Schwartz leading the Eagles defense and seeming to hold a grudge for the way his tenure in Detroit ended.
