Dynasty Trade Value Chart: Week 9

Quantifying Long-Term Player Value for Dynasty Leagues

The dynasty trade value chart is tailored specifically to a 12-team PPR league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and a flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but is also a great resource during startup and rookie drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade is considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, it is a trade offer worth strongly considering.

The player writeups for each position will focus on players who have seen their value increase or decrease substantially since the last update.

THE NUTS AND BOLTS

The trade value numbers you see next to each player's name are a combination of projected 2016 value and future value (2017 and beyond). The calculation is based upon projected points per game minus replacement-level scoring at the position. So for example in 2015, Julio Jones averaged 23 PPG and replacement-level production at wide receiver was 12 PPG. Thus, Jones provided his owners with 11 points (23 minus 12) worth of value in 2015. The sum of Jones' projected value for 2016 (9) and beyond (37) is 46 points. For a more in-depth discussion of the method to this madness, check out the first Dynasty Trade Value Chart from two years ago.

Wide Receiver

Rank Player Sept 2016 Future  Value Change
1 WR Odell Beckham Jr Jr, NYG 55 7 42 49 (6)
2 WR Mike Evans, TB 42 8 40 48 6
3 WR Amari Cooper, OAK 46 6 40 46 0
4 WR Julio Jones, ATL 46 8 36 44 (2)
5 WR Antonio Brown, PIT  46 9 33 42 (4)
6 WR A.J. Green, CIN 38 8 30 38 0
7 WR T.Y. Hilton, IND  25 5 28 33 8
8 WR DeAndre Hopkins, HOU 42 4 28 32 (10)
9 WR Allen Robinson, JAX 42 3 28 31 (11)
10 WR Brandin Cooks, NO 38 5 25 30 (8)
11 WR Kelvin Benjamin, CAR 38 4 24 28 (10)
12 WR Sammy Watkins, BUF 31 0 28 28 (3)
13 WR Jarvis Landry, MIA  30 4 24 28 (2)
14 WR Dez Bryant, DAL 28 4 24 28 0
15 WR Keenan Allen, SD 28 0 28 28 0
16 WR Alshon Jeffery, CHI 28 3 22 25 (3)
17 WR Michael Thomas, NO  13 3 21 24 11
18 WR Donte Moncrief, IND 20 2 20 22 2
19 WR Corey Coleman, CLE 21 1 20 21 0
20 WR Randall Cobb, GB 18 3 15 18 0
21 WR Stefon Diggs, MIN 28 2 15 17 (11)
22 WR Will Fuller V, HOU  22 2 15 17 (5)
23 WR Sterling Shepard, NYG 20 1 15 16 (4)
24 WR Jordan Matthews, PHI 20 3 12 15 (5)
25 WR Josh Doctson, WAS 18 0 15 15 (3)
26 WR Emmanuel Sanders, DEN  9 3 12 15 6
27 WR Marvin Jones Jr, CIN 19 2 12 14 (5)
28 WR Demaryius Thomas, DEN 12 3 9 12 0
29 WR Michael Crabtree, OAK 8 3 9 12 4
30 WR Terrelle Pryor, CLE 7 2 10 12 5
31 WR Doug Baldwin, SEA 13 2 8 10 (3)
32 WR Tyler Lockett, SEA  13 0 10 10 (3)
33 WR Willie Snead IV, NO 13 2 8 10 (3)
34 WR Jordy Nelson, GB 12 5 5 10 (2)
35 WR Martavis Bryant, PIT 10 0 10 10 0
36 WR Jamison Crowder, WAS  5 2 8 10 5
37 WR Tyrell Williams, SD 5 2 8 10 5
38 WR Jeremy Maclin, KC 18 1 7 8 (10)
39 WR Eric Decker, NYJ 14 0 8 8 (6)
40 WR DeVante Parker, MIA 12 1 7 8 (4)
41 WR Kevin White, CHI 9 0 8 8 (1)
42 WR Laquon Treadwell, MIN  9 0 8 8 (1)
43 WR Golden Tate, DET  8 1 7 8 0
44 WR Davante Adams, GB 2 2 6 8 6
45 WR Ty Montgomery, GB  0 2 6 8 8
46 WR Allen Hurns, JAX 12 1 6 7 (5)
47 WR Julian Edelman, NE 9 2 5 7 (2)
48 WR Larry Fitzgerald, ARI 9 4 3 7 (2)
49 WR John Brown, ARI 9 1 6 7 (2)
50 WR Brandon Marshall, NYJ 14 2 4 6 (8)
51 WR Michael Floyd, ARI 14 0 6 6 (8)
52 WR Travis Benjamin, CLE  12 2 4 6 (6)
53 WR Tyler Boyd, CIN 8 0 6 6 (2)
54 WR Dorial Green-Beckham, TEN 6 0 6 6 0
55 WR Kenny Britt, STL 2 2 4 6 4
56 WR Cole Beasley, DAL 0 1 5 6 6
57 WR Tavon Austin, STL  5 1 4 5 0
58 WR Marqise Lee, JAX 2 1 4 5 3
59 WR Phillip Dorsett, IND 15 0 4 4 (11)
60 WR Tajae Sharpe, TEN 12 0 4 4 (8)
61 WR Devin Funchess, CAR 8 0 4 4 (4)
62 WR Breshad Perriman, BAL 7 0 4 4 (3)
63 WR Malcolm Mitchell, NE  6 0 4 4 (2)
64 WR DeSean Jackson, WAS 4 1 3 4 0
65 WR Mohamed Sanu, CIN 4 1 3 4 0
66 WR Sammie Coates Jr, PIT 3 1 3 4 1
67 WR Chris Hogan, NE 1 1 3 4 3
68 WR J.J. Nelson, ARI 0 0 4 4 4
69 WR Josh Gordon, CLE 20 0 3 3 (17)
70 WR Nelson Agholor, PHI 6 0 3 3 (3)

Wide Receiver Movers

We see a lot of receivers near the top of the chart dropping in value. 2016 has served as a reminder that even wide receiver production is highly situationally-dependent. A drop in market share or quarterback struggles can quickly turn an elite fantasy WR1 like DeAndre Hopkins or Allen Robinson into a mediocre WR2/WR3 in the blink of an eye. Kelvin Benjamin and Stefon Diggs have also seen value drops after coming crashing back to earth following red hot starts to the season.

Mike Evans (48, +6) While Evans per-target averages are unimpressive, he is leading the NFL in targets this season. He has predictably seen his touchdown production bounce back (on pace for 14 this season) after inexplicably reaching the end zone just three times on 148 targets in 2015. There has to be some concern about Evans’ ability to put continue putting up huge numbers in future years. As we’ve seen with DeAndre Hopkins in 2015 and 2016, fantasy production that is heavily reliant on an abnormally large market share of targets can dissolve pretty quickly (for example if Tampa was to take legit WR2 early in the 2017 draft). Unlike Hopkins, Evans does have a talented young quarterback throwing him the ball. If you believe in Winston, you have to love Evans’ long-term outlook. At just 23-years old, Evans is a top-5 dynasty value. Since the September trade value update, Evans has leap-frogged over older receivers Antonio Brown and Julio Jones in the rankings and clearly separated from fellow youngsters DeAndre Hopkins and Allen Robinson.

T.Y. Hilton (33, +8) Hilton has seen his value steadily creep up for a few reasons. First, any minor concerns about Andrew Luck and his ability to be an elite NFL passer after a rough 2015 season have been put to rest. Luck is a superstar and the Colts’ lack of talent on defense (which isn’t likely to change any time soon) means that Indianapolis has to throw the ball a bunch. Second, Hilton has cemented his role as the true #1 receiver in Indianapolis. He has risen to the occasion while injuries have ravaged the Indianapolis wide receiver corp and he has dominated targets even when all of the receivers have been healthy. Any concerns about Phillip Dorsett and Dwayne Allen significantly eating into his targets have died as the duo, even when healthy, has struggled. Hilton is locked in contractually to stay in Indy with Andrew Luck through his prime years and is an every week WR1 option for the foreseeable future.

DeAndre Hopkins (32, -10) We were pretty sure we’d see some regression from Hopkins in 2016 after he put up monster numbers in 2015 (especially during the first half of the season), but the massive dropoff we’ve seen is shocking. At the midway point of the season, Hopkins is on pace for an 80-868-6 line. It’s tough to know what to make of Hopkins. He’s just 24-years old and he is a talented player, but it’s hard to get excited about him in this Texans offense. Brock Osweiler isn’t good. The tight ends are more involved (especially C.J. Fiedorowicz) and Will Fuller V will see his fair share of targets. In a run-first offense with poor quarterback play, the passing-game pie is simply too small to be cut up so many ways and support a fantasy WR1. If you can still get a top 10-15 player type of return for Hopkins, now may be a good time to move him because his value could fall even further if current trends continue.

Allen Robinson (31, -11) Blake Bortles has justifiably been receiving most of the blame for the Jaguars offensive struggles, but Robinson has also regressed in his third season and bears his fair share of the blame as well. After averaging a healthy 9.3 yards per target last season, Robinson is near the bottom of the league with just 5.2 yards per target in 2016. Allen Hurns (7.9) and Marqise Lee (8.7) both boast much higher yards per target than Robinson. There is still plenty to like about the freakishly athletic 23-year old Robinson, but he’s not the top-5 dynasty asset he was coming into the season.

Michael Thomas (24, +11) The rookie 2nd-rounder has been on fire in recent weeks and is emerging as the co-#1 target in the Saints passing offense alongside Brandin Cooks. Thomas is currently on pace for a monster rookie season of 96 catches, 1143 yards and 7 touchdowns. He may even exceed those numbers as Bob Henry projects Thomas as a top-10 receiver over the second-half of the 2016 season. He has made a strong case for consideration as the 2nd most valuable rookie (behind only his former Buckeye teammate, Ezekiel Elliott). Perhaps the biggest concern for Thomas as a long-term dynasty asset is potential fantasy regression in the coming years as Drew Brees slows down. We’ve seen Demaryius Thomas fade somewhat from fantasy prominence in recent years as Peyton Manning showed signs of age and then retired and Thomas’ fantasy value is similarly tied to the continued productivity of his 37-year old quarterback.

Running Back

Rank Player Sept 2016 Future  Value Change
1 Ezekiel Elliott 31 11 40 51 20
2 David Johnson 34 11 33 44 10
3 Le'Veon Bell  33 10 30 40 7
4 Todd Gurley 30 5 25 30 0
5 Derrick Henry 16 1 20 21 5
6 Lamar Miller 25 5 15 20 (5)
7 Melvin Gordon III 18 5 15 20 2
8 Spencer Ware 7 5 12 17 10
9 Carlos Hyde  14 4 9 13 (1)
10 Devonta Freeman 9 4 9 13 4
11 Devontae Booker  7 4 9 13 6
12 Jordan Howard 2 4 9 13 11
13 Jay Ajayi 1 4 9 13 12
14 DeMarco Murray 9 6 6 12 3
15 Tevin Coleman 8 2 9 11 3
16 LeSean McCoy 9 4 6 10 1
17 Doug Martin  9 2 8 10 1
18 Theo Riddick 10 3 6 9 (1)
19 Mark Ingram II 12 2 6 8 (4)
20 Jeremy Hill 9 1 7 8 (1)
21 Kenneth Dixon  9 1 7 8 (1)
22 Thomas Rawls  8 2 6 8 0
23 Adrian Peterson 8 0 8 8 0
24 Christine Michael 6 2 6 8 2
25 LeGarrette Blount 5 3 4 7 2
26 Giovani Bernard 9 1 6 7 (2)
27 Jerick McKinnon 8 1 6 7 (1)
28 C.J. Anderson 19 0 6 6 (13)
29 Ameer Abdullah  9 0 6 6 (3)
30 Matt Forte 11 3 3 6 (5)
31 Eddie Lacy 9 0 6 6 (3)
32 Isaiah Crowell 7 1 5 6 (1)
33 Duke Johnson Jr 5 1 5 6 1
34 C.J. Prosise 5 0 6 6 1
35 T.J. Yeldon 7 1 4 5 (2)
36 Dion Lewis  5 1 4 5 0
37 Latavius Murray 8 1 3 4 (4)
38 Charles Sims 8 0 4 4 (4)
39 DeAndre Washington 5 1 3 4 (1)
40 Jalen Richard 5 1 3 4 (1)
41 Jamaal Charles  8 0 4 4 (4)
42 Jonathan Stewart  3 2 2 4 1
43 Charcandrick West 1 1 3 4 3
44 Dwayne Washington 4 0 3 3 (1)
45 Frank Gore 3 2 1 3 0
46 Bilal Powell 3 1 2 3 0
47 James White 1 1 2 3 2
48 Rob Kelley 0 1 2 3 3
49 Terrance West 2 1 2 3 1
50 Jeremy Langford 8 0 2 2 (6)
51 Ryan Mathews 4 1 1 2 (2)
52 Matt Jones 4 1 1 2 (2)
53 Chris Ivory  2 1 1 2 0
54 Chris Thompson 2 1 1 2 0
55 Darren Sproles 0 1 1 2 2
56 Rashad Jennings 2 1 0 1 (1)
57 Shane Vereen 3 0 1 1 (2)
58 Josh Ferguson 1 0 1 1 0
59 Kenyan Drake 1 0 1 1 0
60 James Starks  0 1 0 1 1

Running Back Movers

We may not be seeing a renaissance of the running back position because so many teams continue to use RBBCs. However, the trend towards RBBCs has made the few talented lead backs that still exist stand out as massive fantasy difference-makers. Running backs in the first round of dynasty startup drafts are back and anyone who took the plunge with Ezekiel Elliott in the late-1st of 2016 dynasty startups has to feel like the gamble has been worth it.

Ezekiel Elliott (51, +20) Many dynasty owners will blanch at the suggestion that a running back should be considered the most valuable asset in dynasty PPR leagues, but that may be where we are at with Elliott for a number of reasons. Here is the case for Elliott:

  1. Elliott is a superstar, generational talent at running back. He passes the eye test with flying colors, running with power, speed, quickness and vision that is rarely seen. He’s currently on pace for 2,169 total yards.
  2. The long-term situational outlook is also outstanding. The key pieces of the Cowboys elite offensive line are young and locked into long-term deals. The Cowboys have obviously found something in rookie passer Dak Prescott. He throws well enough to keep defenses from selling out to stop the run and Prescott’s mobility also helps to open up running lanes for Elliott. Aside from injury (always a concern at the position, though Elliott has never suffered a serious injury), there’s no reason to think Elliott won’t continue to be a dominant fantasy force over the next 4-to-5 years.
  3. The fantasy landscape helps Elliott’s value. Wide Receiver has never been deeper and the ranks of difference-making, RB1s has never been shallower. Elliott is a slam dunk over mid-career receivers like Julio Jones and Antonio Brown. Elliott is a full seven years younger than Brown for example. There remains a strong case for Odell Beckham Jr, Jr. as the top overall dynasty asset, but he has come back to the pack a little bit at receiver. He’s still a great young player, but we aren’t consistently seeing the same impact games from him that we did before the Giants added depth at receiver and he’s catching less than 6 passes per game.

David Johnson (44, +10) Many of the factors that have helped Elliott’s value rise also apply to Johnson. There are so few elite running backs, the few studs are incredibly valuable. Johnson provides an immense weekly advantage to his owners and the consistency of his production has been remarkable. He has put up at least 16 points in each of the first eight weeks. Johnson is arguably the most valuable player in all of fantasy in the short term. We also haven’t seen him impacted too negatively by the obvious regression we’ve seen from an aging Carson Palmer. Despite the similar short-term projections, there is still a value gap compared to Elliott though. Johnson is 3.5 yards older and there are certainly more questions about the Cardinals offense going forward.

Derrick Henry (21, +5) It’s violating one of my rules of thumb to rank Henry so highly; in general it is best to prioritize immediate, short-term production at running back and not overvalue longer-term projections. This philosophy makes sense because the position is so situation-dependent and injuries can so quickly change things. However, the long-term outlook is so appealing for the RB1 in Tennessee (the young tackles are excellent, Mariota’s speed keeps defenses honest, game plans will be run-heavy, etc.) and Henry is so talented that his long-term value simply can’t be ignored. Thus, Demarco Murray’s stellar 2016 season both helps and hurts Henry’s value. The veteran looks to still have enough left in the tank to keep Henry in a supporting role for 2016 and perhaps 2017. But Murray’s monster 2016 season also shows what is possible for Henry when he eventually takes over. He too has a great shot at being a top-5 fantasy back in the lead role.

Spencer Ware (17, +10) Jamaal Charles has been placed on injured reserve and may have played his last snap for the Chiefs (he will be 30-years old soon and has salary and roster bonuses of $7M next season). Ware has easily picked up the slack. The Chiefs are riding a 16-2 regular-season streak while leaning on Ware to carry the offense. The 24-year old Ware runs with a tone-setting, physical style and has also seen his impact as a pass-catcher increase in 2016. He is signed until 2019, so we should have at least 2.5 more years of Ware as a locked-and-loaded weekly RB1 in Andy Reid’s extremely friendly offensive system.

Jordan Howard (13, +11) At the time of our early September update, Howard was a 5th-round rookie, buried on the depth chart of a bad offense. In six games since, Howard has rushed for 110+ yards three times. He is fresh off of a 200+ total yard performance against the stingy Vikings defense and looks firmly entrenched as the lead back in Chicago. John Fox’s historical usage of running backs is worrisome (he tends to favor RBBCs), but Howard may simply be talented enough to force a philosophical change from the veteran coach.

 

Quarterback

Rank Player Sept 2016 Future  Value Change
1 Cam Newton 30 4 20 24 (6)
2 Andrew Luck 18 3 15 18 0
3 Aaron Rodgers 9 4 10 14 5
4 Drew Brees 12 5 7 12 0
5 Ben Roethlisberger 8 3 8 11 3
6 Tom Brady  7 6 5 11 4
7 Russell Wilson 14 1 9 10 (4)
8 Jameis Winston 14 2 8 10 (4)
9 Matthew Stafford 8 2 7 9 1
10 Matt Ryan 3 3 6 9 6
11 Dak Prescott 2 2 7 9 7
12 Derek Carr 7 1 6 7 0
13 Andy Dalton 5 2 5 7 2
14 Carson Wentz 5 1 6 7 2
15 Kirk Cousins 3 2 4 6 3
16 Blake Bortles 8 1 3 4 (4)
17 Eli Manning 7 1 3 4 (3)
18 Marcus Mariota 7 1 3 4 (3)
19 Philip Rivers 5 1 3 4 (1)
20 Carson Palmer 5 1 1 2 (3)
21 Ryan Tannehill 5 1 1 2 (3)
22 Joe Flacco 1 1 1 2 1
23 Alex Smith 2 1 1 2 0
24 Tony Romo  1 0 1 1 0
25 Jared Goff 1 0 1 1 0
26 Paxton Lynch 1 0 1 1 0
27 Teddy Bridgewater 2 0 1 1 (1)
28 Ryan Fitzpatrick 1 1 0 1 0
29 Tyrod Taylor 1 0 1 1 0
30 Brock Osweiler 1 0 1 1 0
31 Jay Cutler  1 0 1 1 0
32 Sam Bradford 1 0 1 1


Quarterback Movers

It is the nature of the quarterback position that we do not see too many dramatic value changes, however we have seen some rookies and even some veterans make moves up the ranks.

Cam Newton (24, -6) Newton should easily remain a QB1 due to his running ability, but we’ve seen some real signs that his 35 passing touchdowns in 2015 may have been a fluke. The Panthers offensive line is again a mess and the expected depth at receiver has never emerged. The Devin Funchess breakout hasn’t come and Newton has been left to again force balls to inefficient top receiver Kelvin Benjamin. If Newton is a guy who throws for 20-25 touchdowns most years instead of 30+, he comes right back to the pack at quarterback despite his rushing prowess.

Matt Ryan (9, +6) Ryan was an afterthought for the fantasy community after a disappointing 2015 season. However, he has been brilliant in 2016 and re-emerged as an every-week QB1. Ryan is on pace for 5,272 passing yards and 38 touchdowns this season. The Falcons offense has solved the red zone issues that plagued them down the stretch of the 2015 season, which has led to the big bump in touchdowns. And Ryan has always racked up the yardage. Barring injury, he will throw for 4,500+ yards for the 5th straight season.

Dak Prescott (9, +7) We’ve seen Prescott quickly progress from afterthought 4th round pick, to intriguing preseason standout, to quarterback of the future to quarterback of the present in a blink of an eye. Prescott’s strong play has likely forced Tony Romo to the bench for at least the rest of the 2016 season. We don’t want to overvalue Prescott in one quarterback leagues. The position is so deep that it may be tough to count on Prescott as a QB1 due to the slow pace and run-heavy nature of the Cowboys offense. However, Prescott certainly does have some upside due to his rushing ability. He averaged nearly one rushing touchdown per game in college and has already scored four rushing touchdowns in seven games this season. Prescott may end up being the rare quarterback who can be penciled in for 6-10 rushing scores every season.

 

Tight End

Rank Player Sept 2016 Future  Value Change
1 Rob Gronkowski  28 6 24 30 2
2 Jordan Reed 22 5 13 18 (4)
3 Tyler Eifert  18 4 14 18 0
4 Travis Kelce 15 3 12 15 0
5 Greg Olsen 11 4 7 11 0
6 Jimmy Graham 3 3 8 11 8
7 Hunter Henry 7 1 9 10 3
8 Eric Ebron 10 1 6 7 (3)
9 Martellus Bennett 4 2 4 6 2
10 Kyle Rudolph 3 2 4 6 3
11 Delanie Walker 7 2 3 5 (2)
12 Austin Hooper 4 1 4 5 1
13 Zach Ertz  11 0 4 4 (7)
14 Julius Thomas 6 1 3 4 (2)
15 Coby Fleener 4 1 3 4 0
16 Gary Barnidge 2 1 3 4 2
17 Dwayne Allen 5 1 2 3 (2)
18 Clive Walford 5 0 3 3 (2)
19 Dennis Pitta 3 1 2 3 0
20 Cameron Brate 0 1 2 3 3
21 Austin Seferian-Jenkins 4 0 2 2 (2)
22 Jason Witten 3 1 1 2 (1)
23 Antonio Gates 3 1 1 2 (1)
24 Tyler Higbee 2 0 2 2 0
25 Zach Miller  1 1 1 2 1
26 Charles Clay 1 1 1 2 1
27 Jack Doyle 0 1 1 2 2
28 Jesse James 2 0 1 1 (1)
29 Jacob Tamme 1 1 0 1 0
30 Jared Cook 1 0 1 1 0

Tight End

Injuries continue to plague the tight end position, which makes it tough to properly value the top options. When Rob Gronkowski, Jordan Reed and Tyler Eifert are on the field and operating near 100%, they are major weekly difference-makers that can provide a real point of separation due to the lack of depth at the position. However, each of these top tight ends has a long and ever-growing injury history and each has missed multiple games already in 2016. Reed is especially difficult to value because his concussion concerns defy the typical injury conventions. Unlike Eifert or Gronkowski, who could miss weeks, months or even a season should they suffer another leg or back injury, Reed could end up being forced to retire from football should he suffer an especially bad concussion. He is clearly a risky bet for long-term value, but the reward is substantial because few players provide the weekly value he does in PRP leagues (especially in TE-Premium scoring). 

Jimmy Graham (11, +8) It was assumed by most that the 29-year old tight end was washed up and unlikely to ever be a fantasy force again without Drew Brees and the friendly confines of the Super Dome. Back-to-back 100+ yard receiving games and Graham’s shocking emergence as the #1 option in the Seahawks passing attack have dispelled those notions. While Graham may end up settling in as more of a mid-tier TE1 than an elite option due to the run-heavy nature of the Seattle offense, he is once again a dynasty asset with real value.

Zach Ertz (4, -7) The disappearance of Ertz in the Eagles offense has been one of the more surprising developments of recent weeks. In the four weeks since returning from a rib injury, Ertz has averaged a measly 4.5 PPG despite playing over 50 snaps per contest. Carson Wentz rarely looks Ertz’s way. Ertz is still just 25-years old and has shown real talent as a pass catcher in past years, but unless something fundamental changes in the Eagles passing attack, Ertz will remain unusable as a fantasy option.


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