CFB Team Totals and Analysis: Week 9

College Football Vegas Team Totals and Analysis

 

A rushing or passing matchup rating of 5 is an extremely attractive matchup for the offense, while a 1 means the team is facing a tough defensive matchup and should probably be avoided in daily fantasy lineups. The star rankings take into account the team's Vegas total, relative strength of the offense's passing and rushing attack against the opposing defense and the expected game script (including blowout potential). The matchup ratings will help you to focus your research on the smaller number of offensive position groups with the most talent and the best matchups.

Thursday Slate

Team

Spread

Over/Under

Team Total

Opponent

Run 

Pass

TX Christian -14 75.5 44.75 W Virginia 3 5
GA Southern -21 68.5 44.75 Texas State 5 1
W Michigan -20 64.5 42.25 E Michigan 4 4
Arizona St -2.5 65.5 34 Oregon 3 3
Oregon 2.5 65.5 31.5 Arizona St 3 3
W Virginia 14 75.5 30.75 TX Christian 3 3
N Carolina -3 55.5 29.25 Pittsburgh 3 2
Buffalo -7 49.5 28.25 Miami (OH) 2 3
Pittsburgh 3 55.5 26.25 N Carolina 2 2
Texas State 21 68.5 23.75 GA Southern 2 2
E Michigan 20 64.5 22.25 W Michigan 2 2
Miami (OH) 7 49.5 21.25 Buffalo 1 2

Home teams are in bold. 

5 Star Matchups

 TCU Pass- The advanced stats love the WVU defense (5th in S&P against the run and 11th in S&P against the pass), but the Mountaineers have been vulnerable against top opponents. TCU is certainly in that elite class and ranks 2nd nationally in passing S&P. West Virginia is expected to be without multiple key members of its secondary as well, so expect TCU to be especially aggressive in exploiting mismatches downfield. TCU has averaged 10.1 yards per passing attempt on 38 passes per game, so 350 passing yards is a reasonable projection for Trevone Boykin and the potential is there for an even bigger passing output. Josh Doctson has been the nation's second most productive wide receiver (behind only Corey Coleman) and should have another big game. Kolby Listenbee is back from injury and provides a dangerous deep threat on the opposite side of the field to keep defenses honest. KaVontae Turpin has been a dangerous weapon out of the slot as well.

Georgia Southern Run- Five star matchups do not get more obvious than this one. GSU is averaging a ridiculous 6.8 yards per rush on 54 rushing attempts per game and face a defense that has given up 6.1 yards per carry against. With a team total of ~45, Georgia Southern projects to score at least five rushing touchdowns (they have only one passing touchdown the entire season). The only problem is figuring out who to target in this rushing offense. Running back Matt Breida leads the way with 960 rushing yards and 11 touchdowns, but he is averaging less than 15 touches per game and his ridiculous 9.6 yards per carry average may be do for some regression. Backup LA Ramsby has averaged 11 rushes per game for 435 yards and scored 7 times. Third stringer Wesley Fields is averaging seven rushes per game and has 345 yards and has scored five times. Plus, quarterbacks Kevin Ellison and backup Fabian Upshaw have added over 650 yards and eight touchdowns on the ground. In short, we know Georgia Southern should put up huge rushing yards and score plenty of rushing touchdowns, but it is hard to count on any one individual to put up a big percentage of the total.

4 Star Matchups

Western Michigan Run and Pass- Western Michigan faces a horrible Eastern Michigan run defense that is especially vulnerable against the run. EMU is giving up 6.6 yards per carry and ranks 128th nationally in S&P against the run. The Broncos have averaged a solid 4.5 yards per carry despite a relatively difficult schedule (including trips to Michigan State and Ohio State) and run the ball 37 times per game. This is nearly a five star matchup for the Western Michigan run game and backs Jamauri Bogan and Jarvion Franklin. However, reports have indicated that EMU is likely to mimic recent Western Michigan opponents and sell out to stop the run and force WMU to beat them through the air. While WMU should still run well even against a loaded box, the balanced nature of the Broncos offense makes it possible that they choose not to go too run-heavy. 

The Broncos are more than capable of winning through the air as well with a solid quarterback in Zach Terrell and a pair of NFL talents at wide receiver. Daniel Braverman is a lightning quick slot receiver who gets the ball primarily on short routes and screens (86% catch rate!) but also is able to get deep on teams and has caught a number of long touchdowns. He has been a big-play machine and is averaging almost 11 receptions per game. Corey Davis is a bigger outside receiver who has prototypical NFL measurables and is averaging six receptions on more than 10 targets per game. 

Saturday Early Slate

Team

Spread

Over/Under

Team Total

Opponent

Run 

Pass

Oklahoma -40 62.5 51.25 Kansas 5 4
UCLA -21 63 42 Colorado 4 4
Oklahoma St -3 79 41 Texas Tech 4 4
Texas Tech 3 79 38 Oklahoma St 3 5
USC -6 69.5 37.75 California 3 5
Boise State -20 55.5 37.75 UNLV 5 3
Florida St -20.5 54.5 37.5 Syracuse 4 3
Texas A&M -16.5 57 36.75 S Carolina 4 3
Wisconsin -20.5 51.5 36 Rutgers 3 3
Iowa -17 53.5 35.25 Maryland 4 2
Nebraska -10.5 57.5 34 Purdue 3 3
Mississippi -7.5 57.5 32.5 Auburn 2 4
California 6 69.5 31.75 USC 2 4
Auburn 7.5 57.5 25 Mississippi 3 2
Penn State -5.5 43 24.25 Illinois 2 2
Florida* -3 45.5 24.25 Georgia* 2 2
Purdue 10.5 57.5 23.5 Nebraska 2 1
Georgia 3 45.5 21.25 Florida 3 1
Colorado 21 63 21 UCLA 1 2
S Carolina 16.5 57 20.25 Texas A&M 2 1
Illinois 5.5 43 18.75 Penn State 1 2
Maryland 17 53.5 18.25 Iowa 2 1
UNLV 20 55.5 17.75 Boise State 1 2
Syracuse 20.5 54.5 17 Florida St 1 2
Rutgers 20.5 51.5 15.5 Wisconsin 1 1
Kansas 40 62.5 11.25 Oklahoma 1 1

5 Star Matchups

USC Pass- The Trojans are averaging 9.5 yards per passing attempt and 327 passing yards per game. Against a soft California defense that is giving up 275 yards per game through the air, Cody Kessler should have another big game. Juju Smith-Schuster is one of the most talented and productive receivers in the nation. With USC banged up at receiver, Smith-Schuster should see a huge number of targets. Adoree Jackson has stepped in to fill the void at wide receiver recently after spending most of his time on defense. He is an incredibly explosive player and a high-upside GPP option.

Oklahoma Run- While the general perception of Oklahoma is that they are a high-flying pass-first offense. In reality, the Sooners are top 30 nationally with 44 rushing attempts per game. Part of the reason for the Oklahoma running game has been overlooked is that the offensive line struggled mightily in the run game early in the season. In recent weeks, it has looked like they've fixed some of those issues (especially against below average competition). Against a miserable Kansas defense that is giving up 5.4 yards per carry and 257 yards per game on the ground, Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon should both have strong outings.

Texas Tech Pass- Oklahoma State's defensive numbers are solid (only 6.3 yards per pass), the Red Raiders offense is a much tougher matchup. The Red Raiders are third nationally with 401 passing yards per game. Pat Mahomes is probably the top option on the slate in what should be a high-scoring shootout in Lubbock. Jakeem Grant is the only consistent option at wide receiver, but Devin Lauderdale does have big-play ability and is a decent option for GPPs. 

Boise State Run- The Broncos' overall rushing numbers on the ground are solid, but unspectacular (151 rushing yards per game). However, they have proven capable and willing to dominate lesser opponents with the run. UNLV is giving up 5.3 yards per rush and 198 yards per game.  As ~20 point favorites, the game script sets up perfectly for another big game for running back Jeremy McNichols

4 Star Matchups

UCLA Run and Pass- The Bruins have a great matchup overall and are projected to score a touchdown above their season average with one of the slate's highest team totals (42). The offense has a nearly 50/50 run/pass split and is efficient both on the ground and through the air. UCLA is averaging 5.1 yards per rush and face a soft run defense that is giving up 5.2 per rush and 221 rushing yards per game. Top running back Paul Perkins looks like he is on track to play. Should he be unable to go, talented true freshman Soso Jamabo should be able to pick up the slack. UCLA is also averaging 285 passing yards per game and true freshman Josh Rosen looked like a superstar in the making last week. Thomas Duarte and Jordan Payton are his top targets. 

Texas A&M Run- While the Aggies aren't generally thought of as a top rushing team due to the lack of a dominant running back, the team has still been incredibly efficient and ranks second nationally in rushing S&P. Against a South Carolina defense that is giving up a healthy 5.3 yards per rushing attempt and with true freshman quarterback Kyler Murray likely to be tabbed for his first start, expect the Aggies to go much more run-heavy than their normal 36 runs per game. Top back Tra Carson could be asked to carry a heavy load and Kyler Murray is dynamic with the ball in his hands as well. 

Iowa Run- The Hawkeyes have had one of the nation's hottest running games over the past month. The Hawkeyes are now averaging 215 rushing yards per game and 5.0 per rush. They have also scored the vast majority of their touchdowns on the ground. Maryland has a decent rush defense (just 4.2 yards per rush) and just shut down Saquon Barkley last week. However, this is a tough spot on the road and Vegas likes Iowa for ~35 points. Akrum Wadley stepped in for the injured Jordan Canzeri and had a breakout performance with 200+ yards and four touchdowns last week. He is again listed atop the Hawkeyes depth chart and is expected to see most of the carries despite former starter Leshun Daniels Jr. returning to full health after struggling with an ankle injury.

Saturday Late Slate

 

Team

Spread

Over/Under

Team Total

Opponent

Run 

Pass

Memphis -31.5 65 48.25 Tulane 4 5
Utah -24 54 39 Oregon St 5 3
Stanford -11 62 36.5 Wash State 5 3
Tennessee -9 56 32.5 Kentucky 4 3
Washington -5 59 32 Arizona 3 4
Houston -11.5 49.5 30.5 Vanderbilt 4 2
Notre Dame -10 50 30 Temple 3 3
Texas -6.5 52 29.25 Iowa State 3 2
Air Force -7 50.5 28.75 Hawaii 3 1
Arizona 5 59 27 Washington 3 2
Duke -7 46 26.5 Miami (FL) 3 2
Michigan -14 38 26 Minnesota 3 1
Wash State 11 62 25.5 Stanford 1 4
Kentucky 9 56 23.5 Tennessee 2 2
Iowa State 6.5 52 22.75 Texas 2 1
Hawaii 7 50.5 21.75 Air Force 1 2
Temple 10 50 20 Notre Dame 2 1
Miami (FL) 7 46 19.5 Duke 2 1
Vanderbilt 11.5 49.5 19 Houston 1 1
Tulane 31.5 65 16.75 Memphis 1 1
Oregon St 24 54 15 Utah 1 1
Minnesota 14 38 12 Michigan 1 1