The April Dynasty Trade Value Chart serves as a handy guide for pre-draft maneuvering in the lead up to the NFL Draft at the end of the month, including estimated trade values of each rookie draft pick. It also provides an in-depth review of the biggest dynasty value movers at each position post-free agency.
The dynasty trade value chart is tailored specifically to a 12-team PPR league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and a flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but is also a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade should be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, it is a trade offer worth strongly considering.
Rookie Pick Values
1.01 (43) The Saquon Barkley hype has only continued to build. The 1.01 will cost an arm and a leg and it only makes sense to pursue the pick if you are absolutely “all-in” on Barkley quickly emerging as an elite back. It is entirely possible he does become the top overall dynasty asset at by time next year, as his receiving skills make him an ideal fit for today’s NFL. Don’t be afraid to “shoot your shot” if you believe in Barkley. For rebuilding teams that own the 1.01, it is at least worth gauging interest in the pick and seeing if anyone is willing to make a crazy offer. Adding the equivalent of three or four mid-first round rookie picks in a trade gives you the chance to hit on multiple key pieces instead of just one.
1.02 (24) Derrius Guice is the odds-on favorite for 1.02 in rookie drafts, though any number of players could emerge as the consensus pick here once landing spots are known. For owners of the 1.02, it may be worth exploring trading the pick for one of last year’s top backs. Leonard Fournette, Alvin Kamara, and Kareem Hunt have already proven their ability to make an impact in the NFL. Adding a small piece to the 1.02 and trying to upgrade the 1.02 into one of those young players makes sense from a risk/reward perspective. Similarly, if you can get someone like Joe Mixon plus a piece for the 1.02, that avenue may be worth exploring as well.
1.03 (19) Prior to the draft, most dynasty owners will view this pick as being the 3rd rookie back. Since there isn’t much consensus as to who that even is (Nick Chubb, Sony Michel, Ronald Jones, etc.), it will be hard to trade this pick for a premium. The value of the 1.03 could increase substantially if multiple backs land in exciting situations.
1.04 (17) We haven’t seen significant dynasty hype build for any of the receiver prospects, which has kept the value of the mid-1st round rookie picks relatively low. Unlike last year, the mid-1st round picks are relatively affordable and make for solid trade targets pre-draft.
Early 2nd (6) The depth of the running back class is again impressive. While there may be a lack of elite receiving prospects, the depth of the class is solid. We could also see one or more tight ends emerge post-draft as top dynasty targets. Plus, the rookie quarterback class is strong. Due to these factors, it is a great year to have extra picks outside of the first round. Early 2nd-round rookie picks could end up being especially valuable.
3rd Round (2-3)
Free Agency Winners
Jerick McKinnon- From a dynasty value perspective, the single biggest winner in free agency was Jerick McKinnon. Kyle Shanahan has a long history of producing top fantasy running backs and the San Francisco offense looks poised to emerge as one of the league’s best in the near future. McKinnon has a good chance to rack up 60+ catches and get plenty of opportunities as a runner as well. While a rankings jump all the way to the cusp of RB1 status as the #13 back may seem aggressive, the reward if the 25-year old McKinnon can emerge as the lead back in San Francisco justifies the risk even at such a lofty valuation.
Kenyan Drake Drake quietly led the NFL in rushing yards over the final five games of the 2017 season. He rushed for 444 yards and two touchdowns on 91 carries and caught 17 passes for 150 yards in the month of December. The addition of only Frank Gore as competition was a realistic best-case scenario, as were the comment of Adam Gase on the Gore signing. "I was looking for kind of what we ended up getting with Frank," Gase said of a second running back. "I wanted that veteran guy that had a lot of experience and could help Drake kind of take his game to the next level."
Rex Burkhead Rex Burkhead was quietly another big winner of the free agency period. He stayed in New England on a 3-year, $9.75M deal with $5.5M in guarantees plus millions in incentives. With Dion Lewis now in Tennessee, Burkhead has a great opportunity to step into a bigger role with the Patriots. He is intriguing because he doesn’t need to be a true lead back to have major fantasy value in the prolific Patriots offense. The Patriots running backs combined numbers last year— 2700 total yards, 25 touchdowns and 120 receptions — were good for 540 fantasy points in PPR scoring. Burkhead put up 129.8 fantasy points (PPR scoring) on just 17.2% of the Patriots total offensive snaps. If he plays even 40-50% of the snaps, Burkhead has fantasy RB1 upside.
Free Agency Losers
Derrick Henry It was clear that Tennessee was going to bring in another running back to pair with Henry this offseason. However, the hope for dynasty owners was a mid-round rookie or a low-priced third-down back. Dion Lewis is more than that. In addition to his receiving skills, Lewis has also proved a dynamic runner on first and second down. While Lewis’ contract is best described as a two-year, $10.3M deal with a pair of option years tacked on, those two years overlap with the final two years of Henry’s rookie deal. It could be another frustrating fantasy season for fantasy owners based upon comments from the Tennessee front office and coaching staff. “That (role) may change every week. One guy may get 20 carries one week because of the defense we’re facing, and one guy may get 25 carries, whatever it may be,” said Mike Vrabel. “How the pace of the game is going, how the style of the game, how the defense is playing us (will determine when which player is on the field),” noted GM Jon Robinson. It may be tough to trust Henry as a starting fantasy back on a week-to-week basis.
Dodging the Draft
The hit to Derrick Henry’s dynasty value came via a free agency addition. The deep running back draft is going to have an even bigger negative impact on values. Here are some of the running backs who will hope to dodge the addition of an early-round running back to their teams’ rosters. If they are lucky, they could see their dynasty values rise.
1. Carlos Hyde/Duke Johnson Jr The Browns offense has the potential to make a big leap forward in 2017 and Hyde and Johnson are talented enough backs to have fantasy value if no significant competition is added. However, Saquon Barkley is a real possibility at #4 overall and if not Barkley, a running back with one of the two picks at the top of the 2nd round wouldn’t be a shock either.
2. Alex Collins Collins was productive over the second half of the season and would have solid fantasy value if he retains the starting job. However, the Ravens best teams had big-time backs and Baltimore would likely love to add an impact back early in the draft. Unfortunately, the team has other even more glaring holes (wide receiver, tight end, and offensive line) and may have to put off upgrading the running back position for at least another year.
3. Marlon Mack Everyone knows the Colts are going to take a back in the draft, which is already priced into Mack’s dynasty value. However, how early the pick comes will have a big impact on Mack’s chances of carving out a significant role in the Indianapolis backfield. The Colts added a couple prime picks after trading down with the New York Jets. Saquon Barkley is a real possibility at #6 overall if there is a run on quarterbacks and Bradley Chubb goes in the top 5. There are also a number of Day 2 backs who would fit well on this roster if they go a different direction in the first round.
4. C.J. Anderson With Case Keenum signed, Denver doesn’t have to go quarterback with the 5th overall pick. It frees the team to go best player available, which makes Saquon Barkley a very real possibility (which would crater Anderson’s dynasty value). A Day 2 running back also can’t be ruled out.
5. Chris Carson Based on the backs currently under contract, the starting running back job in Seattle is Carson’s to lose. Seattle suddenly has many holes to fill on defense and the offensive line is still lacking talent, so Carson has a decent chance to hold onto this job without any significant rookie competition.
6. Jerick McKinnon Kyle Shanahan is saying all the right things about McKinnon being a centerpiece of his offense. However, it wouldn’t be a shock to the 49ers add depth and competition to the backfield. With picks 59, 70 and 74, San Francisco is loaded in a prime spot of the draft to choose one of the second-tier backs.
7. Kenyan Drake The Dolphins roster has much bigger problems than the running back position. Thus, it would be a surprise to see a Day 1 or Day 2 pick on a back. However, many seem unwilling to buy into Drake as the lead back until they actually see the draft play out, so his value will remain slightly lower until we see how everything plays out.
8. Rex Burkhead Burkhead is probably safe. Over the past six drafts, the Patriots have used just one pick on a running back (James White in the 4th round of the 2014 draft). The Patriots do have an extra 2nd-rounder from the Jimmy Garoppolo trade though and it wouldn’t be a complete shock to see them try to add an impact back on Day 2.
Allen Robinson While Chicago — and a pairing with the unproven Mitch Trubisky — was far from a best-case scenario, it still represents a step up from the run-heavy, Blake Bortles-led Jacksonville offense. Robinson is now unquestionably the top target and could quickly re-ascend to elite dynasty status if Matt Nagy can help Trubisky unlock the promise that made him the 2nd overall pick last year.
Larry Fitzgerald The addition of a solid veteran passer in Sam Bradford will help Fitzgerald. Perhaps even more importantly, John Brown and Jaron Brown both left as free agents and Arizona did nothing to improve the wide receiver position in free agency. As of now, J.J. Nelson and Chad Williams are the 2nd and 3rd receivers in Arizona. 2018 is shaping up to be yet another season in which Fitzgerald ranks near the top of the league in targets.
Tyreek Hill Hill will probably remain the top receiver in Kansas City despite the addition of Sammy Watkins. However, the addition of an elite young talent with a very similar skill set does nothing to help Hill’s chances of seeing more targets going forward. Hill was wildly efficient with his 105 targets last season and may have to make do with a similar workload again in 2018.
We mentioned last year the window to sell receivers like Antonio Brown, Julio Jones and A.J. Green for a premium haul was closing quickly. While it may be possible in some leagues to still get a big return for one of these older receivers (Brown and Green turn 30 years old this summer), in the most competitive leagues, these older receivers are a tough sell. The average draft position of Antonio Brown is still sky-high, but my experience so far this offseason has been that his trade value doesn’t match the ADP. It makes Brown a poor investment in startup drafts.
For teams in position to contend for fantasy titles, the trade value may not matter much. Each of these receivers should have at least a few good years left (maybe more) and there is nothing wrong with riding until the wheels fall off. For non-contenders looking to jump-start a rebuild by moving one of these receivers, things become much more difficult. In that case, patience is a virtue and a mid-season trade to a contender looking for that final piece to put them over the top may be the best chance to get full value in a trade.
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Free Agency Winners
Patrick Mahomes II The rookie was already a hot dynasty commodity when it became clear he would be taking over one of 2017’s best offenses. With the free agency addition of Sammy Watkins, Mahomes should continue to see his stock rise. He now has arguably the best group of receiving weapons in the NFL at his disposal.
Kirk Cousins The New York Jets offered the most money but also the lowest probability of short-term NFL (and fantasy) success. Cousins instead went with Minnesota, where he steps into a productive offense with a dynamic receiving duo of Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen. He also has a top red zone threat in Kyle Rudolph and a dynamic pass-catching back in Dalvin Cook. Minnesota was a best-case landing spot for Cousins’ dynasty owners.
Mitch Trubisky The Chicago Bears were aggressive in landing arguably both the top receiver on the market (Allen Robinson) and one of the top pass-catching tight ends (Trey Burton). The Bears skill position talent still isn’t top notch, but it looks much better than it was and should help Trubisky take the next steps toward becoming a true franchise quarterback.
Free Agency Losers
Teddy Bridgewater The poor contract Bridgewater was forced to settle for was telling in regards to how NFL teams view his health. He couldn’t have landed in a worse spot. Not only will he have a top rookie quarterback to compete with, but it looks like Josh McCown is the heavy favorite to be the short-term starter.
A.J. McCarron For those in Superflex league who have had McCarron stashed the last few seasons, the landing spot in Buffalo isn’t encouraging. The Bills look like they are all-in on landing a top rookie passer and no team seemed interested in giving McCarron a real chance to try his hand at becoming a multi-year starter.
Trey Burton Burton signed a surprisingly large four-year, $32M contract with the Chicago Bears. New head coach Matt Nagy, formerly of Kansas City, has indicated Burton will step into a Travis Kielce-like role in the offense. Burton shoots all the way up to TE8 in terms of trade value. He makes for an interesting trade target if his current owner is looking to turn a quick profit.
Jimmy Graham When Seattle looked eager to move on from Graham despite the lack of an obvious replacement, his dynasty value took a major hit. However, the soft landing in Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers was a major boon to Graham’s dynasty value. He will have a real opportunity to put together at least a couple more top-5 fantasy seasons if he can stay healthy and quickly establish a connection with Rodgers.
Jack Doyle While Doyle should still be considered the TE1 in Indianapolis, the addition of Eric Ebron is undeniably a negative for Doyle’s fantasy prospects. Ebron isn’t much of a blocker, so his primary role is going to be as a pass catcher and he is going to eat into Doyle’s share of targets.
Tyler Eifert Eifert looked like he was going to leave Cincinnati for greener pastures. Reports had the Los Angeles Rams and San Francisco 49ers making serious runs at signing the talented pass catcher. Either would have been a more exciting landing spot than re-upping with the Bengals.