The dynasty trade value chart is tailored specifically to a 12-team PPR league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and a flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but is also a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade would be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, that is a trade offer worth strongly considering.
With trade deadlines in many leagues coming up soon, pay special attention to how much of each player's value is based upon the present season (listed under the "2017" column) versus how much is based upon expected value in 2018 and beyond (the "Future" column). These two numbers combine to equal the player's total dynasty value ("Value" column). For non-contenders, you want to pay most attention to the Future value.
It should be relatively easy to swing win-win trades at this time of year between contending and non-contending teams. The 2017 value is basically irrelevant to a non-contender. Take LeSean McCoy for instance. His overall dynasty value is 8 points. But half of that value (4 points) comes based upon his expected production down the stretch of 2017 and in the 2017 fantasy playoffs. If your team has already been eliminated however, that production is irrelevant. Thus, he is only worth 4 points to your team. Trading for any player who has a future value of more than 4 points is a win, so it shouldn't be too hard to find a deal that makes your team better in 2018 and beyond.
There are also other considerations that may make trading productive veterans a positive move in terms of expected value. For example, do not overlook the value of positioning your team for the best possible 2018 rookie pick. While it is unethical to purposely submit something other than your best possible lineup late in the season, it is perfectly ethical to make trades that hurt your short-term prospects and give you a worse starting lineup down the stretch. Let me point to a quick personal anecdote to illustrate the point... In a 2015 startup draft, I purposely drafted young players and traded down to accumulate future picks with the intention of "tanking" the first season. Going into Week 13, I was positioned for the 1.01 rookie pick in the 2016 draft. However, a 2-point win in the final week dropped me three spots to the 1.04. Instead of landing Ezekiel Elliott at 1.01 that summer, I had to settle for Josh Doctson at 1.04. As of today, those players have a massive 36 point gap in dynasty value. In short, sometimes there is a hidden value in trading away productive veterans if you are a rebuilding team that comes from improving the value of your draft capital by making it more likely your team will lose late in the season.
In this edition of the Dynasty Trade Value Chart, there will be an extra focus upon the players whose dynasty values have changed the most since the last update in October. The "Change" column indicates how much each player's value has changed in the last month. The players who have seen the biggest value changes will be discussed in more detail below.
Some thoughts on the value of 2018 rookie picks end the article.
|17||Patrick Mahomes II||0||4||4||0|
Carson Wentz Wentz keeps improving and impressing on a seemingly weekly basis. In three recent outings against tough defenses (Carolina, Washington, and Denver), Wentz threw for a combined 11 touchdowns. In his second season, he is very much in the MVP conversation and may even be the favorite heading into the second half of the year. He also continues to flash his athletic ability, rushing for 63 yards in Week 7 against Washington. Wentz looks like the real deal and of the top quarterbacks, is the only one healthy at the moment.
Andrew Luck Our Dr. Jene Bramel wrote an excellent in-depth breakdown of Luck’s injury and his chances of achieving a full recovery. While it seems more likely than not that Luck will be back in action next season, there is real uncertainty surrounding his future. That risk has to be factored into his dynasty value, which makes Luck one of the biggest fallers since the October update. If you can still move Luck for somebody like Deshaun Watson, Carson Wentz or Russell Wilson in your league, it would be a great move to do so.
Cam Newton Newton’s value falls slightly since our last update. He simply is not throwing the ball well. Over the past two weeks combined, he has thrown for 291 yards and 1 touchdown. He is back to running more (10 rushing attempts per game over his last four), which helps him maintain solid fantasy value. However, for a player who turns 29-years old in the offseason, the question becomes how long he can maintain his athleticism.
Jared Goff Goff backed up his solid start with continued strong play over the last month. He isn’t attempting enough passes to really count on as a weekly fantasy starter yet, but he has shown major signs of progress in his second season. Goff is just 23-years old and is a player who should continue to grow and may eventually blossom into a prolific passer with real fantasy value.
Alex Smith Smith has seen his value for 2017 rise (especially in light of the season-ending injuries to a number of other fantasy QB1s). Smith looks like a low-end fantasy QB1 down the stretch. It is worth noting that he has a solid playoff schedule, facing the Raiders, Chargers, and Dolphins all at home in Weeks 14-16. Beyond that, Smith has clearly done enough to ensure that he will be a starter somewhere in 2018. Even if the Chiefs decide to turn to Patrick Mahomes, there are plenty of teams for which Smith would represent an upgrade at the quarterback position.
|7||Melvin Gordon III||6||20||26||-2|
|16||Mark Ingram II||3||6||9||-1|
|33||Duke Johnson Jr||1||2||3||0|
Kareem Hunt Hunt has now gone six games without scoring a touchdown. He has also failed to top 90 rushing yards in any of his last four games (after rushing for 100+ in 4-of-5 games to start the season). We don’t want to drop Hunt too far. He is still a talented 22-year old running back who looks poised to maintain a big role in a productive Kansas City offense going forward. However, his star has certainly dimmed a bit in the past month.
Devonta Freeman The Atlanta Falcons offense has unsurprisingly fallen back to earth after a record-breaking 2016 season. Even though some regression was expected, the Falcons have fallen from first in the NFL in offensive touchdowns in 2016 all the way to 15th in 2017. Due to this, Freeman has seen his touchdown opportunities cut drastically. He has gone four weeks without getting into the end zone. In the short-to-medium term, Freeman is more of a fringe fantasy RB1/RB2 than the strong weekly RB1 player we expected.
Alvin Kamara In terms of the “eye test” Kamara has passed with flying colors. In recent weeks, he has arguably looked like one of the top two or three rookie running backs in the loaded 2017 class. He is rushing for 6.0 yards per carry on the season and has shown a tremendous ability to break tackles in the open field. Kamara is on pace for 76 receptions this season and has significant PPR value just due to his receiving production. If he can continue to increase his role and start to get 10+ carries per game as well, Kamara would project as a fantasy RB1 going forward.
|26||Will Fuller V||1||10||11||1|
|40||Marvin Jones Jr||2||4||6||3|
|53||Paul Richardson Jr||1||3||4||3|
|70||Willie Snead IV||0||1||1||-1|
DeAndre Hopkins Hopkins sees his 2017 value take a major hit with the loss of Deshaun Watson to a season-ending ACL injury. However, Hopkins has seen his overall dynasty value rise in the past month. The spectacular 8-224-1 receiving line he put together in a Week 8 matchup against Seattle shows what Hopkins is capable of with one of the league’s brightest young stars throwing him the football. Hopkins was one of the youngest rookies in his class and is still just 25-years old. He signed a long-term extension recently that will keep him paired up with the 22-year old Watson for at least the next several seasons.
A.J. Green Green will turn 30-years old next summer and is right in the middle of what should be his prime years. However, the Cincinnati offensive line is an abomination and has caused the Bengals offense to struggle mightily this season. If Andy Dalton doesn’t have time to throw, Green’s impact as a deep threat (where much of his fantasy value is derived) is greatly decreased. Green’s rest-of-season projections take a hit and unless the Bengals make some serious personnel improvements in the offseason, we could see Green fall from the ranks of the truly elite fantasy wide receivers moving forward.
JuJu Smith-Schuster Smith-Schuster is one of the toughest players to rank and value right now. On one hand, we have a guy who at 20-years old just put up a 7-193-1 line against a solid Detroit defense. This is clearly a talented young player. On the other hand, we have a guy who for at least the next three years will be playing second fiddle to Antonio Brown. He will also have to compete for targets with Le'Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant. We also don’t know what the future holds for Ben Roethlisberger beyond the current season. It is dynasty, so we bet primarily on age and talent. But we also should keep in mind that fantasy production hinges largely upon situation and workload (targets for a wide receiver. The situation and projected targets for Smith-Schuster in the medium term are both a bit murky, so we want to be careful not to overvalue Smith-Schuster.
Kelvin Benjamin It is hard to find any positives from a fantasy perspective in the trade of Benjamin from Carolina to Buffalo. The Bills rank 31st in pass attempts per game (29.5) and have uncertainty moving forward at quarterback, where the team doesn’t seem fully committed to Tyrod Taylor. Beyond the fit and projected impact in the Buffalo offense, it is also concerning that Carolina was willing to cut bait so cheaply on Benjamin in a season they are contending for a playoff spot. It speaks volumes that the front office and coaching staff that sees Benjamin on a daily basis does not value him highly. If they don’t, neither should his dynasty owners.
Josh Gordon Gordon has been reinstated and his dynasty value gets a bump from next to nothing to something… It is impossible to tell what we can reasonably expect from Gordon moving forward in his career. We know there is a very real chance that we never get much of anything from him in terms of fantasy production. He is down to his last chance and could screw up at any time. However, we also know he is a supremely talented young wide receiver who has proven WR1 fantasy upside. He is certainly worth owning and should be worth a 2nd-round pick in trade for owners willing to roll the dice on his upside.
Rob Gronkowski Gronkowski remains the top dynasty tight end but his value compared to other positions has fallen a bit in the last month. As the wear and tear of the season have built, Gronkowski has looked slower and less explosive than he did in his youth. Still just 28-years old, Gronkowski theoretically has a long and productive future ahead of him. However, with his long history of injuries to his back and knees, he is an “old 28” and there are no guarantees that Gronkowski remains a top fantasy producer into his 30s. It is scary to trade away a player in his 20s who is likely to go down as the greatest to ever play his position, but it is at least worth considering if you can sell high now and turn Gronkowski into a talented youngster without a long injury history.
Jimmy Graham The Seattle passing offense has come to life in recent weeks and Graham has been a prime beneficiary. He is still not a high-volume target for Russell Wilson, who spreads it around to a number of talented receivers. But Graham is one of the go-to options for Wilson in the red zone, where Graham has scored four touchdowns since our last trade chart update.
Jared CookCook has always had talent and is now developing into a prime weapon for Derek Carr in Oakland. Over the past three weeks, Cook has 290 receiving yards and a pair of 100-yard receiving games. Still just 30-years old, Cook could be the rare player who breaks out late in his career (like Delanie Walker) and puts together his best fantasy seasons in his 30s.
Martellus Bennett If in need of a roster spot down the stretch of the season, Bennett might be worth dropping at this point. He has indicated this season may be his last and without Aaron Rodgers, he has no fantasy value in 2017.
2018 ROOKIE PICKS
Future rookie pick value is always extremely difficult to quantify with any exactness because the value is so dependent upon the range of potential finishes of the team. For example, a projected “early 1st” that comes from a winless team with an awful roster and nobody else close in the standings with a great chance of landing at #1 overall is worth more than a projected “early 1st” that could realistically end up anywhere between 1st and 6th. Use your judgment and adjust the general values below based upon how likely the pick is to end up first overall, second overall, etc.
The determination of how likely a pick is to end up #1 overall is especially important for 2018. Saquon Barkley looks like a special player who should immediately be a top-10 overall dynasty asset. There is still a long way to go, but there could be a real drop off in value to #2 overall (like the 2016 draft where the value drop from Ezekiel Elliott at 1.01 to Laquon Treadwellat 1.02 was huge). So the 1.01 may be worth 35 while the 1.04 is only worth 15. The values listed below will assume an “early 1st” has an equal chance of ending up being #1, 2, 3 or 4. Adjust accordingly if the pick is more or less likely to end up #1.
With those caveats out of the way, here is how the 2018 picks stack up in value:
- Early 1st- 20
- Mid 1st-13
- Late 1st-9
- Early 2nd-6
- Mid-Late 2nd-4