The statistics used in this column are those acquired from the Reception Perception methodology for evaluating wide receivers. To see full results of the project’s first full offseason, check out the tables at Backyard Banter. Additionally, use the #ReceptionPerception tag on Twitter to follow all the analysis from the series. Every week at Footballguys I'll profile one receiver whose recent numbers stand out as interesting. If you have a suggestion for the column, file it on Twitter.
Given their track record, it’s hard to feel bad for the New England Patriots. Then again, a little sympathy feels necessary for an offense that lost two of their top three playmakers in two weeks time. After losing Dion Lewis for the season to an ACL tear, New England learned Julian Edelman would likely miss the rest of the regular season, at least, with a serious foot injury.
For Edelman’s fantasy owners, it was a crippling blow. Of course, he was his usual PPR stud self, but Edelman was also enjoying the best season of his NFL career. Through 10 weeks, he was averaging the most yards per game of his career, and already passed his highest season total for touchdowns.
Luckily for those who lost Edelman, and for the Patriots, there is the rare wide receiver handcuff on New England’s roster. Danny Amendola, once a big-ticket free agent acquisition, is set to assume much of the role Edelman left behind.
At one point, Amendola was a popular breakout candidate. Before he even took a snap with the Patriots, Amendola went on average at pick 4.10 in 12 team PPR fantasy leagues (per Fantasy Football Calculator) back in 2013. He came to New England to replace, and in some minds be an upgrade on, Wes Welker. Instead, injuries nagged the former St. Louis Ram, and Julian Edelman passed him for Welker’s vacated position. Since then, to his credit, Amendola stayed healthy in 2014 and played well in a bit role.
Now back in the pubic focus, it’s worth taking a deeper look at Amendola’s game. We need to figure out if he can truly can at least approach the level of production and play that Edelman gave New England. To do so, we’ll look at three of his games through the Reception Perception methodology. To cast a proper net, we’ll look at a game where was not a big part of the offense as a bit player (Dolphins, Week 8), another where we he did see a ton of work as an ancillary piece (Jets, Week 7), and the most recent game where had to step in for Edelman (Giants, Week 10).
Alignment Data
As expected, Danny Amendola strictly plays the slot receiver and flanker position for New England. He lines up on the line of scrimmage, and 75.4 percent of his snaps over the three game sample came from the slot.
This season Edelman played more outside than usual. However, much of that was to get Amendola some burn, and out of necessity with Brandon LaFell spending much of the early portion of 2015 on the PUP list. Don’t expect Amendola to do much work outside, as the Patriots are sure to use him as a slot receiver. Tom Brady shared a special mind-meld with Wes Welker and Julian Edelman. They’ll need Amendola to do his best work in recreating that, and that means running most of his routes from the inside.
Target Data
There was intentionally a wide range of involvement for Amendola between these three games. As such, his target per route rate of 20 percent does not really provide much context for what the future weeks will hold. If dropped right into the Edelman role in this offense, that rate is sure to see an eight to 10 percent increase.
What’s really important to highlight here is the efficiency. Most of the players studied this season didn’t carry a reception per route rate that was so close behind their target per route rate. In fact, from the total 2014 full season samples charted, NFL receiver averaged a target per route rate of 25.3 percent, and a reception per route rate of 15.1 percent, a 10.2 percent difference. With that context, Amendola’s 1.9 percent difference is insane.
This gives us a good insight into the sort of steady presence that Amendola brings to the table. He’s a reliable player, who you can trust to bring in the targets thrown his way. Of course, the important next step is examining just what kind of targets those are.
Success Rate Versus Coverage Data and Route Analysis
There are not a ton of surprises here; Amendola’s route tree looks about what’d one would expect from a slot receiver. Over 43 percent of his 105-charted routes were either slants or flats. In New England’s up-tempo and spread offensive packages, these are the patterns where Amendola will rack up a ton of targets and receptions. In a similar fashion, much of the 8.6 percent “other” routes were option patterns from the slot. Most commonly associated with Wes Welker, this pattern allows the receiver to break off the route and gives them choices on where to go, based on the coverage across from them.
The curl route is an interesting pattern. For some receivers, like Alshon Jeffery who we studied last week, the curl is designed for hard breaks where a big-bodied player can box out a cornerback and make a contested catch. For timing based receivers, like Michael Crabtree or other slot mavens, the curl is a pattern where the player can time their break and deceive a defender before breaking back to a ball already on it’s way from an anticipatory passer. Tom Brady fits that mold, of course, and Amendola may see his use on curl routes (already 14.3 percent) go up. This could help boost his yards per reception, which sits at 9.3 for his career.
(SRVC denotes success rate versus coverage for each route. PTS indicates how many PPR fantasy points a receiver earned on each particular route)
Just what we’re looking for; Amendola carries better than average success rate scores on all the primary routes he runs. His slant and curl route scores are on the higher-end, and his flat route SRVC raises no alarms. The former two routes were also, unsurprisingly, where Amendola racked up most of his production. Expect him to churn out receptions, striking gold for PPR owners, consistently on these routes. If he can transfer these SRVC scores while getting more targets, he’ll be a godsend in replacing Julian Edelman.
If you’re hoping for more than just a PPR play, you should be encouraged to see his post, dig and out route scores were so high. While he never ran these routes far down the field, Amendola can make due on shallow digs and posts, which will bring more yards than most slants and flats. He will need to improve on that option route mentioned above. His 55.6 percent SRVC on “other” illuminates he’s not quite on the Welker/Edelman tier in executing that assignment.
If you remember the Willie Snead Reception Perception article from a few weeks back, we came away impressed that he caught a pass on all every branch of the route tree (outside of a screen) in the two games charted. In a similar fashion Amendola showed the versatility to accomplish a similar feat, except his reception-less route was that “other” pattern. Perhaps Sneads’ level of production this season, which was quite good when healthy, is a good model for Amendola’s expectations, which would put him at about 80 to 90 percent of what Edelman provided.
A slight tick off from Edelman should be expected; Danny Amendola isn’t as good of a player. The former was a fantastic yards after catch receiver for the Patriots this season. That aspect of the game is still a weaker point for Danny Amendola:
In order to truly replace Edelman, you’d like to imagine Amendola will get “in space” on more routes. Yet, he’ll need to improve his dropped on first contact rate.
Another area where he’s step down from Edelman is his ability against man coverage. In 2014, Edelamn checked in with an above average 68.3 percent SRVC score against man. In this three game sample, Amendola didn’t quite match that:
(Red indicates the figure is below the NFL average, Green is above and Yellow is within one percentage point)
In 54 attempts against man, Amendola only posted a 61.1 SRVC score, and only got off press 65.2. As illuminated in both of these numbers and his “in space” metrics, Amendola is not the athlete Julian Edelman is. The latter truly goes unrecognized as one of the better athletes in the NFL for a player of his archetype. However, to offset that, Amendola is simply at feeling out zone coverage. His 92.2 percent SRVC against zone in this sample was the closest ever charted to Antonio Brown’s far and away league best 93.6 percent mark from 2014. Of course, do remember that Amendola’s numbers come from a small three game sample, whereas Brown’s came in a full traditional eight game Reception Perception sample size. Nevertheless, that score is a tremendous positive in Amendola’s corner, and gives plenty of optimism that he can fill in for a good 80 to 90 percent of Edelman’s role and production.
Going Forward
The Reception Perception numbers paint a clear picture for the outlook of Danny Amendola’s task of replacing Julian Edelman. Provided he stays healthy, the veteran slot receiver can step into a good chunk of that role, and has the short area route work and ability in zone coverage to churn out a similar level of production. The offense won’t lose a crushing amount without Edelman, and Amendola is a similar enough player to more than adequately assume his duties.
However, Reception Perception also clearly shows that Amendola does have his limitations, and will not completely negate the loss of his predecessor. His SRVC against man defenses and ability in space must improve for that to happen.
Danny Amendola is a good player, who did deserve all the hype he once carried to New England back in 2013. Injuries and the emergence of other assets cast a shadow over him, but he still possess the skills to become a steady contributor for this offense, and a crucial piece in the 9-0 team’s Super Bowl run.
If you made a waiver claim to get Amendola in your fantasy league, Reception Perception shows you’ll be happy with what you get in return. As long as you recognize Edelman for the talent he is, and don’t expect Amendola to be a one-to-one total replacement, that is. Yet, he’s more than good enough to find his way right into your lineup, and stay there for much of the duration of the season.
