"Waldman liked/didn't like [insert player name]."
It's a common Tweet I see about my analysis of players. Often these summations of my views on players are either incorrect or at best, simplistic. It's ok, it's Twitter, what do you expect?
But when I have an opportunity to clarify those statements, I do. Two players that I didn't like as instant impact starters capable of overcoming a steep learning curve were DeVante Parker and Marqise Lee.
Both receivers are earning more targets than ever and making good on them. This week's Gut Check will take a look back, analyze the present, and project the near future for both players.
DeVante Parker
The Past
Parker is a massive physical talent with good hands and skill after the catch. These three components can make a wide receiver a functionally productive fantasy option in an offense that limits the demands that it places upon the receiver in a passing game.
It's exactly what Miami did last year when it hid Parker from press coverage and difficult route decisions when it gave him a highly specific role in the slot last year. For those of you prepared to harp on the point about the role of the slot, stand down.
The slot is often far from a simple role in an offense. It can involve a lot of pre-snap diagnosis and post-snap options that require a great understanding of pass defenses and rapport with the quarterback.
But in this case, Parker was used as a package player without those major responsibilities. His role was to run faster and jump higher than a defender assigned to him. The slot was the place where Parker would get the best opportunity to do his thing well.
The No.4 option in the 2015 Rookie Scouting Portfolio's pre-draft analysis of receivers, my analysis dovetails with why the Dolphins wound up using Parker in this limited, but highly productive role.
The Cardinal receiver is a lightning-quick athlete with good hands. He plucks the ball at a variety of angles high, low, and away from his frame. Parker also makes plays after contact, works back to the ball, and shields defenders in tight coverage. He’s one of the best 50/50 pass catchers in this class.
However, there’s real potential for Parker on timing routes, because he flashes some scary-good skill in the open field. Feed him the ball in stride, and Parker has a notably quick first step and a strong feel for the open area when he's working under a defender.
Parker can bend his hips as a ballcarrier, which could translate to developing strong breaks with sudden stops and turns. Parker’s routes are the weakest part of his game—especially releasing from the line of scrimmage.
He scared many college defenders at the line of scrimmage with his height, quickness, and variety of footwork moves to begin a route. However, more experienced, confident college cornerbacks were not fazed by Parker’s efforts. Parker fails to gain enough depth with his initial steps from the line of scrimmage.
This is a common issue with college receivers and it shows up prominently on Parker’s tape. Using longer strides to gain depth off the line towards the press corner helps a receiver stack (get butt-to-butt) and initiate the release with a rip, swim, chop, or hook.
It’s better to attack and dictate than use these same moves to react. Parker relies on his athleticism to outrun defenders, but it’s already not working against savvier opponents. In the NFL good results will come even less often. Once Parker learns 2-3 good hand uses and takes it to a defender, he’ll be on his way to becoming a versatile and dangerous player all over the field. Until then, he’ll be a talented athlete with good hands on see-it-throw-it routes.
For a receiver of Parker’s current skills, this more limited range of potential is still good enough to earn a living and help a team. He’s aware of the sideline and he knows how to use his height to his advantage.
As good as he is on fade routes, Parker’s stems need to maintain the same pace so he doesn’t tip off his breaks. Parker can also telegraph breaks by bringing his shoulders up too early during the stem. His breaks also need to be tighter and more economical.
While he can extend his arms to catch high targets, he’ll experience mental lapses and attempt to trapthe targets where he should attack. His passive approach and tipping off routes also creates more difficult targets in tight coverage, leading to drops after contact.
If there are players in this class who rely too much on physical gifts and may experience a rude awakening to the pro game, Parker headlines the list. If you’re hoping for Parker to maximize his potential, early failure could be the best medicine because he’ll have to work hard to become an all-around player.
If he experiences early success, but the NFL catches up to his game—which tends to happen—Parker could begin pointing to external factors rather than addressing his own shortcomings. I’m not saying Parker has a lack of accountability, it’s basic human nature to lack accountability when failure follows initial success.
Despite these concerns, Parker is a receiver to covet early if running back is not on your radar. He’s a more dynamic player in the mold of Martavis Bryant. If he can become a better technician, he might one day earn an A.J. Green comparison based solely on jump balls and open field skill alone.
If you're seeking a detailed look at how Parker struggled to beat press coverage, this Storify I compiled two years ago with video analysis still has merit today.
The Present
Parker's struggle to become a complete route runner carried over to this summer and fall. The Dolphins' staff also complained about his difficulties staying healthy. These complaints focused on Parker lacking the understanding of how to take of his body.
It's another indicator that Parker leaned too much on his "God-given talent" and lacked the knowledge and maturity to develop a consistent, professional approach to honing his craft. Parker even stated before the draft that he had reached this pinnacle of football success solely on his athletic ability—a sure sign that he was not prepared to become a pro.
When a player is always hurt and cannot practice with the team, forget about him putting in extra work on things like press coverage, refining the route tree, and gaining rapport with his quarterback. Parker's ignorance about training, diet, studying the game, and care for his body were catching up to him and he didn't begin the season as a starter.
I don't know how much Parker has improved in these areas, but the fact that he's healthy is a positive sign—albeit not a direct correlation to him developing better habits on the things mentioned above. What is tangible is Parker's production.
What you're seeing is a comfort level with the routes he's running and the ability to make good adjustments on the football. What you're not seeing is press coverage or even tight man up the stems of his routes. The depth of the routes is good, but the type of routes aren't elaborate.
The Immediate Future
You're seeing a talent athlete running routes that you'd expect from a rookie. Although he has earned 18 targets and 13 catches during the past 2 weeks, Parker has not graduated to veteran status in this offense.
This won't happen until he's beating tight coverage on outs, curls, digs, comebacks and slants on a consistent basis. Even so, he's earning time on the perimeter and he has been productive.
Count on this continued heightened volume of targets until opponents begin pressing him. If he displays improvement in this year, a breakout is imminent. If the targets drop, you'll know that he hasn't taken the next step and 2017 will be an important year for him to prove that he's a vital future of this passing game or a better, but not good enough, Justin Hunter.
Marqise lee
The Past
Although I recommended taking Lee in the late-first or early second rounds in rookie drafts, it was based on a strategy to stockpile talent based on ADP and not to have high expectations for the USC receiver early on. I had Lee rated lower than most in the 2014 RSP.
He was No.17 on my list (Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham, and Mike Evans were my top three in that order). While that ranking sounds low, I always point to the details before misapplying the implication of a spot in a ranking.
There was no doubt Lee was a talent with upside. The question for me was whether he had what it took to acclimate fast and if he didn't, would the implications of a slow start in the NFL hurt him like they do many young prospects in an impatient professional environment.
If I was basing my rankings solely on what players have to offer today, Lee would be in the 7-12 range of this list. However, the combination of what I believe other players can learn versus Lee’s potential drops the USC receiver to No.17. It’s a low placement, but it’s a deep class and it doesn’t take away from the fact that I believe Lee can become a serviceable starter...
He has played hurt and made big plays in big moments while playing with an injury. I believe Lee has confidence in his ability and he wants to be the man in his offense. This is an enormous positive.
However, there are too many up-and-down facets of Lee’s game for me to believe his transition from college star to NFL star will be seamless. While I hope he proves my analysis wrong, I’m skeptical he’ll become that consistent go-to guy as a pro.
Lee catches the ball with his hands and sometimes made good plays on high-velocity throws, but he’s not consistent with attacking the target away from his body and he allows a lot of balls into his frame. While there are moments in his career where Lee made good plays after contact, his work against tight, physical coverage is only reliable on quick-hitting plays in the short zone of the defense. He dropped a lot of balls that he should have been able to catch after contact.
Lee flashes some ability to use his hands to work past contact from tight, single coverage, but he needs to demonstrate more consistency with his hands earlier in the route when a cornerback gets aggressive with him. His execution isn’t as clean as it needs to be.
When he gets into a route, he is sudden with his turns and he works back to the quarterback after his breaks. He also makes astute reads the safety and linebacker on some of his zone routes.
But in 2012, there were a disturbing amount of mental errors between Lee and quarterback Matt Barkley. Without having familiarity with Lane Kiffin and his coaching staff, it’s tough to speculate who was at fault for each error. However, the amount of errors indicates both were at fault for allowing it to be a consistent problem from week to week.
His judgment as an open field runner is too erratic. He tries way too hard to use his quickness and agility to break a homerun play as a ball carrier. Lee often does this when there’s a clearer opporutnity to work downfield and get what is availalble—and needed—in a down and distance situation where the conservative choice and smaller gain helps the team more.
When he’s in tighter quarters, Lee has the strength get yardage after contact, but he has to improve his pad level. He gets knocked backwards or approaches the defender too high...
Lee’s best fit is a West Coast offense where a quarterback will get rid of the ball fast and let the receiver do his damage with his legs. In this capacity, he’ll make a fine No.2 receiver in an offense. If he displays more consistency in tight man coverage at the catch point, he can develop into “the man.”
An ankle injury, untimely drops, route mistakes, and immature decisions as a ballcarrier all relegated Lee to the bench. At best, he earned limited playing time for the first two years of his career.
The flashes of ability were there, but the consistent production when targeted was not. Allen Hurns and Rashad Green passed Lee on the depth chart. Hurns became a borderline star and earned a second contract.
The Present
Lee's improvement has been a steady refrain since training camp. A significant factor has been his return to health. Lee hasn't earned the volume of targets that Parker has seen the past two weeks, but he has steadily earned 6-8 targets since Week 6 and he has 6 games with at least 50 years—half of those were performances with at least 75 yards.
It's the quality of the receptions that are impressing me. Lee isn't subsisting on shallow crosses and earning yards with his feet. These are big-boy targets he converted against Detroit with a quarterback having trouble delivering the ball with accuracy due to a bum shoulder and whatever you want to characterize about his lack of preparation this summer.
The hands and body control are good signs. The confidence Bortles is showing in Lee is also notable. Solely on talent, Lee is in a similar ballpark as Allen Robinson, although their physical styles have some marked differences.
If I were the Jags' GM, I'd get this offensive line right, search for a competent veteran quarterback if Bortles cannot commit to dedicated offseason work on his craft, and let this defense gel. The trio of Robinson, Hurns, and Lee is as promising as any young corps in the NFL.
I'm optimistic that Lee could overtake Hurns permanently as the No.2 option—and you know I love Hurns game. Will it happen? It depends on Lee's taking the same sizable steps between this year and next as he did last summer. If so, he's a smoother version of Golden Tate.
I'm adding Lee to my re-draft leagues down the stretch. I may do the same with Parker. The targets are there and the role in the offense doesn't stretch them past their current capacities.
In dynasty leagues, I'd give a second-round pick for either player. I'd stretch a bit more and off a low first-round pick if I could get a third-round pick or a valuable handcuff to a starter on my roster with the ability to produce if called upon. Say, Jalen Richard if I had Latavius Murray.
Although neither became the quality of players we've seen from Odell Beckham and Mike Evans, they're making progress. It's a positive situation if you reframe yoru expectations.
