Week 10 was a great slate of football and if I had time, I could have made Monday's Top 10, the Top 25. Some of the points below could have made the Top 10 during other weeks of the year, others are simply worth your attention
A hint of what makes Kenneth Dixon's future brighter than Terrance West's
Terrance West has improved to the point that he's a good running back. A combination of extra work and the experiences he had that led to his decision that this extra work was necessary has created the mature product we've seen on the field. Kudos to him.
Dixon has something that only 12-15 backs in the NFL possess: The consistent ability to make multiple defenders fail on a given run. No runner does this on every run, but Dixon does it often enough that it's noticeable to me.
He also does it multiple ways. He's both a make-you-miss and tackle-breaking runner and he can use both skills multiple times with success within the same run. If you want numerous examples, watch Dixon against Oklahoma with me and former NFL Scout and Scouting Academy Founder Dan Hatman.
For a hint, this sharp jump cut in the backfield and run through a wrap is a sufficient illustration.
It may not come this year, but I'd rather be on the losing side of that bet with Dixon on my roster down the stretch.
Matt Ryan is Dangerous, But ...
If I was building a team, there aren't many quarterbacks I'd take over Matt Ryan. He fits so many elements that I would want from a quarterback in my desired range of offenses.
He's one of the best timing passers in the league. When he gains rapport with a receiver, he'll show that trust with aggressive throws into tight windows. And his arm is just good enough to execute every planned throw within a scheme.
He has the flexibility of Gumby. I swear I've seen him take hits that bent his ankles and knees in positions where most quarterbacks would have been done for the year and he's popped up and run off the field—or at worst, walked off gingerly and returned the next series without issue. If we discovered mutants were playing professional sports, I'd guess Ryan had that Stacy Augmon-Plastic Man gene.
The one area where Ryan is good, but not great and there are still a handful of quarterbacks I'd take ahead of him in reality and fantasy is his play within a compressed pocket. This is a good, really good, play from Ryan on Sunday.
The awareness to negotiate a tight pocket is vital for successful quarterback play in the NFL and Ryan has it. Where Ryan is not as consistent is the ability to make these throws with great timing downfield to open receivers in tighter coverage. It's why...
I still like Drew Brees more...
Brees is one of the greatest quarterbacks of all-time. His accuracy is stunning and so much of it is based on his technique that should be compulsory viewing for developing quarterbacks and coaches.
I think Bill Walsh would have loved to see how Brees has matured over the years. Although Steve Young was a great player with a wider range of skills than Brees, I bet if Walsh had to choose between both at the early stages of their careers, it would have been more difficult than some realize.
Why I'd still choose Brees over Ryan in fantasy and reality is the difference between Ryan's good and Brees' great pocket skills. Moving around the pocket means little unless it ends with an accurate throw. Both quarterbacks do this well, but some of Brees' plays are ridiculous—even more so when you consider how flawless his technique is and the mental processing underlying it.
This is a fantastic game-tying touchdown pass against Denver. What makes it so is the footwork to maneuver the pocket, quickly reset and fire the ball on-time between the high-low coverage of the cornerback and safety.
Deep passes are like time travel. You have to see the end result well before you've taken the steps to get there. Brees not only sees the future on this play whiles he's navigating a compressed space, he's far more efficient with resetting and firing than most passers in the same situation.
Some of them would reset fast but lack the caliber of footwork to deliver a good target. Others would throw a ball with velocity and trajectory but they'd take too long to get their feet under them and timing versus the coverage would be off.
Not Brees.
I could watch this play 50 times in a row and not tire of it. If athletics have moments of high art, this is one of those plays. I hope Brees can play 3-5 years more. The odds are against the high end of this range, but there's no shame in drafting him among your top three options every year until it's clear that he's not the same player.
Here's the player who could change my mind about Brees-Ryan
Ryan has adapted well to Kyle Shanahan's offense, but I still don't think it's the best match for his skills. What I'd love to see added into Shanahan's scheme is a package of sideline intermediate read routes (curls and comebacks) off five-step drops under center and three-step drops from shotgun.
When Roddy White was in top form, he and Ryan were unstoppable on these throws and the deep out. It didn't matter who the cornerback was or if there were multiple players in coverage.
Taylor Gabriel will never be White, but he has the elements of a good timing route receiver. He can bend his hips to stop a high-speed stem, he can make quick turns, and he can threaten a defender deep. This hitch-and-go is a fine example of the vertical threat Gabriel gives Atlanta, but also how it could help him as a runner of curls and comebacks, which are complements of the post, dig, and fade route.
While possible that Ryan and Gabriel could develop this rapport this year, I'm hoping Shanahan, Ryan, and Gabriel incorporates this element into the offense for 2017. It's an extended explanation about why I think it's wise to keep an eye on the young receiver as a luxury addition to your dynasty rosters or even spot start down the stretch.
Why Kirk Cousins has always driven me crazy part 6,343,235
Unlike Brees and Ryan, who understand the importance of how and when to throw the ball under pressure, Kirk Cousins still lacks the self-awareness necessary to make the transition from mediocre quarterback with really good moments to good quarterback with great moments. It's this one issue that is the difference between him becoming Matt Ryan.
What's frustrating to me is that he's getting away with it too often and in the case above, his foolish decision actually helped the offense because it damaged Eric Kendricks and Anthony Barr, two of the Vikings' most dangerous players. Dumb luck personified...
Despite this criticism of Cousins, he's a smart player. Foolish? Absolutely. Smart? No doubt. If Tim Tebow is Forrest Gump, Cousins would be Lieutenant Dan.
Cousins surrounding talent is good and if you can still execute trades in your leagues, the Panthers-Bears pairing for Weeks 15-16 is pretty good. Just make sure you have a second option for Weeks 13-14 becuase Arizona and Philadelphia can supply the pressure that forces Lt. Dan to climb the mast and have it out with God.
don't write off ryan Tannehill
There's an inherent misunderstanding about the Dolphins' quarterback. The problem with my argument is that if this doesn't work out as I'm about to present it, those with the lazy, broad-brushed argument that Tannehill is robotic and missing just enough skill to become a good long-term quarterback will still feel they are correct.
Tannehill was a late-bloomer at Texas A&M. He wanted to play quarterback, but he did what the team needed when he didn't win the job early in his career; he became an excellent college receiver. When the team needed him at quarterback, he became an excellent college passer and showed additional pro potential in that capacity.
One of the glaring criticisms I've heard about Tannehill is his lack of pocket presence. When examining him on a play-by-play context, it's a sound conclusion. But it lacks the context of his development track.
Most good starters in this league possess one of two developmental positives when they entered the NFL: consistent leadership and a sound offensive scheme. Until Adam Gase, Tannehill has had neither.
I've mentioned this before, but it bears repeating that for the two years prior to Gase, Tannehill has performed in an offense where his receivers weren't provided clear verbal cues to communicate appopriate route depths. There might be a call for a dig, but it could be run at three different depths depending on the situation and there was too much ambiguity involved for the passing game to be on the same page.
Just like a quarterback can hang a receiver out to dry with a poorly placed throw into the teeth of a defense, a receiver can do the same when he runs the wrong route. The result is the quarterback throwing a wildly inaccurate pass—and often into a covered area—or the quarterback has to hang onto the ball because he notes an error with the timing-break point and he's toast in the pocket.
Timing and rapport can improve within the course of a season and it has with Tannehill and his corps under Mike McCoy, but I don't think we'll see it make significant strides until 2017. What you can't take away from Tannehill is his toughness or his willingness to make the deep throw under pressure.
If you're playing the odds, Tannehill has been a sell for a year or two. If you've held on this long, hold on a little longer. The offensive line has improved, the ground game as a borderline special talent, and the coaching staff is lead by a man with a good mind for the game.
Work-based trust personified
It's a simple timing play between Cam Newton and Greg Olsen, but it is also what the product of hours of work in the passing game looks like.
Eric Berry is no slouch the dropping coverage underneath the break is quick enough that any hesitation kills the success of this play. If you can move the ball on the ground with either your quarterback or running back and throw the ball in the middle of the field behind the linebackers, your offense can move the ball up and down the field. It may not be flashy, it may take a lot of plays, and it doesn't lead to a lot of points on its own, but it can keep you in games.
Just ask Dak Prescott, Jason Witten, Ezekiel Elliott, and the Cowboys while Dez Bryant was out.
Why my love affair continues with Spencer Ware
My father in-law is visiting in December and I'm taking him to a Falcons game. When given a choice in July-August, the Panthers and Packers were obvious candidates. But I didn't think Green Bay and Carolina would take two steps back and Atlanta two steps forward.
So I chose the Chiefs. I thought the Chiefs might be Justin Houston back by December and the two teams were matched just well enough to make an entertaining game. While this has worked out, it's about to exceed my expectations.
The 7-2 Chiefs have the best defensive front in football and Houston hasn't played a down yet. The secondary has playmakers that offer and exciting risk-reward element to watching them competing against good passing games. And the offense, when completely healthy, has the potential for excellent run-pass balance.
Sounds good right? Just agree with me and I'll fully admit that the biggest reason I chose this game is because I wanted to see Spencer Ware.
I know that's what most of you think. Just remember that I had to make this choice in August when the possibility of Jamaal Charles returning to the field was much stronger a possibility than how it played out.
Even so, yes...I admit, Ware and Kelce are two players I like a lot and at worst, I thought it was a good matchup for an entertaining game. Ware continues to impress me and despite the mediocre output this week, I like what I saw.
Ware is excellent at setting up blocks. Here's a gap play where he sets up his lead block by baiting Thomas Davis to the inside before cutting across the back of his blocker to the open area.
Ware also deserves credit for his cutback skills. He's not fast, but his lateral agility and the balancing and timing to use it make him a good starter in this league. He had a few of these plays on Sunday that were inches from him turning the runs into gains of at least 20 yards.
One of the areas of improvement that Andy Reid listed for Ware was pass protection. Ware has always had a solid baseline of skills as a blocker, but with the exception of an occasional missed assignment, the Chiefs starter has authored strong performances.
When a back cuts off his right tackle and takes the aggression to a good defensive end like Charles Johnson because he has the better angle, it's like a centerfielder calling off the right fielder on a fly ball. You want that decisive attitude and strong execution from a back. Ware's effort is strong and sustained.
Although the blitz pickup below could have been much more fun if Luke Kuechly didn't trip over the leg of the lineman, Ware is at the right place at the right time and takes advantage of the inadvertant trip by burying the All-Pro linebacker.
For those of you with long neurotic streaks with your weekly lineups who need lots of reassurance every week about players but I don't have the time to hold your hand, I'm still firm that Ware is a good buy for your stretch run.
The Chiefs are dangerous with Smith (or Foles), but a QB away from becoming a great offense
Since I've learned that Alex Smith and the Chiefs have increased and improved its deep ball tendencies, I'm less inclined to talk about Smith as a check-down king. But I'm skeptical that Smith even has what Matt Ryan delivers down field—and I've never been one to tout Ryan's vertical game as anything more than adequate.
Foles is reckless, which is why I would rather have Smith lead a team that has a solid defense and a good run game, but I think Foles makes this throw to Kelce more often than Smith. To offer a quick tangent on Kelce, the double move is terrific, but note how fast he gets into the space of the defensive back and begins the double move in that tight area.
It's this speed of Kelce's stem and ability to execute the move in that tight space with the defensive back that makes this play. Defensive backs become naturally more reactive when the space gap tightens on off coverage because the receiver is forcing greater urgency. It's the route skills of Kelce, Maclin, and the burgeoning Conley that could use an aggressive and accurate passer just a notch above Smith.
In other words, it Matt Ryan was the Chiefs quarterback for the past 2-3 years, I think his 2016 stats in Kansas City would be close to what we're seeing with him in Atlanta this year. Where I'm concerned about Smith and his future is Tyreek Hill. If Hill continues to grow at the rate he's developing as a rookie, he could become a primary receiver.
During the past few weeks, he's shown that his potential has moved beyond gadget player in this offense. Unlike Tavon Austin, Hill can get deep. Maybe Smith improves with his timing as he continues throwing the ball downfield more often but his timing with looking off the defender and the multiple hitches ruined this play below.
The makings of a strong offense are there for Kansas City. It's an underrated unit right now. The trio of Maclin, Conley, and Hill is a good one—especially when there's potential to flip-flop Maclin and Hill in the slot and get strong production from either one and use the other on a deep vertical route along the perimeter.
Adding Kelce and Ware to this mix makes the Chiefs a balanced offense with explosiveness, power, and versatility. When the Raiders and Chiefs are good, there's some semblance of balance in my NFL world. It's tough to buy Alex Smith as a long-term player, but if Andy Reid can keep this nucleus in place and Kansas City could acquire an aging veteran with more to offer in this short window of contention I'd love to see it happen.
Right now, there isn't a strong option. Ryan Fitzpatrick? Kirk Cousins? I'd keep Smith. If Tony Romo (could stay healthy...) became available, that could be a fun gamble. Matt Stafford, Drew Brees, and Teddy Bridgewater's contracts are up in 2018. It could be interesting to see Kansas City's fortunes climb high enough that it outgrows Smith and what options it considers in two years.
Monitor
Ryan Taylor becomes an exclusive rights free agent in 2017. Cody Latimer's contract ends in 2018. Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are signed through 2020. It doesn't look good for Taylor the break into the Broncos' starting lineup until he's 28 years-old, barring injury or additional high-profile acquisitions that pay off.
But what I see on the field is impressive. Most of you highlight watchers saw his touchdown catch against tight coverage. What about this hard-breaking route?
Although I'd like to see fewer steps into the break, it's a hard break with good hip flexion to come to a sudden stop. Taylor has always been excellent at adjusting to the football. The route improvement makes him a player to watch when he becomes an exclusive rights free agent. Also keep an eye on Demaryius Thomas' ongoing management of his hip problems.
Another player I'd monitor, if not straight-up buy and hold onto is A.J. Derby. He's signed through 2019 and at a lower price than either Virgil Green or Jeff Heuerman. His immediate insertion into the starting rotation is also noteworthy. I like what I've seen thus far as a backside blocker and receiver. Green hurt his foot or ankle in the Saints game and Derby could take over the job as the primary receiver at the position.
Broncos tight ends aren't getting a lot of love in the passing game but they're also dealing with inexperienced quarterbacks. Keep an eye on him.
Better Late Than Never: Thoughts on Robert Kelley
What impresses me most with Kelley's game is his consistency. He's balanced, he has cutback skills, and he's a high-effort guy with good burst and strength that converts well on the field.
I don't think he's a special player. But in terms of value-to-investment, I think Matt Jones' game is like a pair of fashionable jeans that you paid top-dollar for at the mall downtown when you could have gotten the same pair (Kelley) at the Goodwill Store for $10-$15.
In terms of strict, football reality, Kelley is a player most coaches would value as a reserve who can help your starting rotation when called upon for long periods of time. I hope Washington sticks with Kelley over Jones until it finds a high-end replacement worth every penny.
Jay Ajayi is borderline special
He may even be special. In the best sense. I just want more time to watch him before I go there. Watch Kelley's cut backs again and then watch this efficient downhill cut from Ajayi. Athleticially, it's a big difference.
I'm also a fan of the burst and placement of the stiff-arm. Joey Bosa may be a rookie, but he's a sure tackler. Ajayi makes this look easy, but the placement of the stiff-arm is well-timed and excellent.
Then there's the burst. This is inches from becoming an even longer run and after Ajayi accelerates past the first and second level of the defense, you can see the cornerback give it his all to even make a diving play.
One of my favorite aspects of Ajayi's play is where I began this column: His ability to make multiple defenders fail on a single run.
Although Ajayi is faster than Dixon, they're both talented enough that this symmetry with my column's beginning and ending could extend to the success of their career's moving forward. For the good of fantasy running backs, let's hope so.
