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Welcome to Fantasy Football Neurosis Week, also known as the aftermath of Week 1. I'm your armchair pseudo-psychotherapist and that statement already has me feeling sorry for you. It appears that your Halloween experience has arrived six and a half weeks early.
Admit it, you love being afraid. Being swept up in your worst fears makes you feel alive. Creating scenarios where the sky could fall at any moment means you must become the hero.
I know you're sitting there daydreaming about saving the world. There are you in your Dennis Leary-endorsed pickup truck with patriotic music blaring from your imported audio system, weaving through the gunfire and exploding tank shells of your war-torn neighborhood so you can deliver a bed full of sandbags—and the secret launch codes—to the special forces commander holed up with all who know you at your kid's elementary school that has unexpectedly become that last bastion of protection against the evils that you always knew were plotting to overthrow us.
No?
Then you must be the fellow who pairs his signature lime green Chucks with his smartly professional wardrobe so everyone can know that you're the slightly oddball analyst and the only hope for a free society in your own tightly woven thriller. There you are in your sleek new Tesla, weaving through the city on the way to swanky restaurants and dimly lit social clubs for clandestine meet-ups with allies and enemies—who you enthrall and confound with your specialized training, razor-sharp street smarts, steely nerve, and irresistible charms—as you expose and turn back the systematic corruption that is threatening the welfare of the downtrodden.
I don't care what your fantasies are. I just care about your fantasy teams. And I know that most of you are wondering who you can trust in the aftermath of Week 1.
I lean more towards preaching caution and patience. If you're seeking ACT NOW! thinking, my buddy Sigmund Bloom leans more towards that end of the spectrum and from what I can tell, he sees this Week 2 waiver wire as one of the most boring in several years.
Here's a list of players and reasons why I'm excited, uncertain, or ice cold on their season-long outlooks. Because the waiver wire isn't as exciting at this point, I'll use this as an opportunity to share advice on trades with each of the players. First, let's look at a way to determine values for one-to-one and package deals.
My best advice for determining value is the last preseason ADP averages you can find. If determine that a player who popped last week has low-end RB1 potential, then take a look at August 29th's PPR ADP update. You'll find Lamar Miller as the lowest-ranked RB1 in 12-team leagues with an ADP of 11. Then look at other positions with an ADP range between the 7-15 and you've found a rough match of values you're seeking.
It's more common to make package deals when trading, which means ADP info is only helpful if you have a way to combine 2-3 players of lesser value that will equate to the player you seek.
One way for determining worthwhile packages is to examine the previous year's fantasy totals for your league's scoring system. I did this for the Dirty Dozen League I joined this year (I'm team Rookie Scouting Portfolio if you're curious). I copied the table of the top 250 players from the link that I provided above and I divided Cam Newton's fantasy total (the No.1 player) into the total points of every player below him and converted it to a percentage.
I created the following tiers:
- Top Tier (Players at 90-100 percent of the No.1 performer's value): A top-5 elite performer.
- Second Tier (Players at 80-89 percent): A 6th-12th performer.
- Third Tier (70-79 percent): 13th-29th performer.
- Fourth Tier (60-69 percent): 30th-50th performer.
- Fifth Tier (50-59 percent): 51st-80th performer.
- Sixth Tier (40-49 percent): 81st-121st performer.
- Seventh Tier (30-39 percent): 122nd-198th performer.
- Eighth Tier (20-29 percent): 199th-250th performer.
- Ninth Tier (bottom 19 percent): Everyone after the top 250.
Another way of viewing it is converting those numbers to position values. You may have to determine this by looking at the positions related to last year's numbers. Here's a general approximation for a wide variety of leagues:
- Top Tier (90-100 percent): A top-5 overall elite performer.
- Second Tier (80-89 percent): A top-5 QB1; a top-3 RB1; a top-6 WR1.
- Third Tier (70-79 percent): The top TE; a WR1; a top 5-7 RB1; any QB1 below the top 5.
- Fourth Tier (60-69 percent): Borderline QB1; mid-to-late RB1s; WR2s; and mid-range TE1s.
- Fifth Tier (50-59 percent): QB2; low-end RB1; mid-to-high RB2; low-end WR2; most WR3s; and mid-range TE1s.
- Sixth Tier (40-49 percent): Low-range TE1s; low-end WR3s; WR4s; mid-to-low RB2s; and high-to-mid RB3s.
- Seventh Tier (30-39 percent): Low-RB3s; all RB4s; WR5s.
- Eighth Tier (20-29 percent): WR6s; WR7s; and RB5s.
- Ninth Tier (bottom 19 percent): Handcuff RBs or reserves with no playing time and situational/reserve WRs and TEs.
From here, you determine where you value players on your roster and players that you desire and create combinations of offers that roughly equal the player that you desire. I'll use examples with the players that I profile below
Advisory Warning on Trades
Always try to offer less than what I recommend below. The values I'm giving you are the limits of what I think are "fair value" from your point of view. It's always good to lead with an offer that values the player you want at the lowest acceptable range for the owner. For instance, if you think Adrian Peterson is still a potential top-five fantasy RB but you can get his owner to agree his market value is a high-end RB2, then the deal you strike should equate to the RB2 value.
Before offering a deal to an owner, I suggest starting a conversation where you can find agreement on a value range for a player you'd like to acquire. Don't use specific players. Get your potential trade partner to discuss the player in terms of equivalents like, "I think Peterson is worth a RB1 but I can see how he could be a high-end RB2 this year as a worst case." Then you can say, "if we agree Peterson is a worst-case RB2, here are the types of offers I'd make for a high-end RB2."
Live Wires
Matt Forte: I've been saying it since my first set of rankings in May, Forte is the most underrated RB1-caliber talent of 2016. Concerns about age, new team, and Bilal Powell all depressed his preseason value. My central point since the New York media reported that Powell would split carries with Forte is that carries and touches are different.
When Forte joined the team, Chan Gailey was planning to use Forte as a receiver split from the formation. It only makes sense that Powell would split time as a running back with Forte when Forte would also spend a significant amount of time as a receiver in specific formations. Forte caught over 100 passes two years ago when working with a pass-oriented offensive mind like Marc Trestman and Gailey has a similar bent with running back usage albeit different execution.
The Jets offense sports a great deal of veteran players that makes it a flexible unit. It means Forte should be one of the offensive centerpieces even if Bilal Powell eventually earns 8-10 touches per game and Forte's share drops to 15-18 per contest. As I explained this summer, it's enough of a workload for Forte to earn top-12 fantasy production at his position.
Trade Value: I'm valuing Forte as a solid RB1 bordering as a top-five talent at his position. If you can negotiate him for whatever you consider the equivalent, do it.
Here are the types of players on par with a solid RB1 at each position according to late-August ADP:
- RB: Miller, Ezekiel Elliott, Adrian Peterson, and LeVeon Bell
- WR: A.J. Green, Allen Robinson, Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall
- TE: Rob Gronkowski
- QB: None
Remember, fantasy owners are sensitive to previous week's performances. Most Forte owners will give you the side eye with an offer of Elliott for Forte. Likewise, few of you will be convinced to give up A.J. Green straight-up for Forte after Green torched Darrelle Revis repeatedly and I don't blame you.
There's good reason to see Green as one of those elite, top-five options. I'd prefer to get Forte by combining depth rather than giving up a stud this early. But you may have a clear understanding of your roster and know that you have the depth to part ways with a marquee talent so you can build a winner.
If you and a potential trade partner can't find common ground on a Forte-for-Robinson, Forte-for-Gronkowski, Forte-for-Marshall deal then another way to arrive at appealing values for a negotiation is to use last year's performance tiers.
Let's say you want Forte and you see his range of value as a best-case a top-five RB1 and at worst an RB1 in the 8th-12th range of the rankings, then you have to understand what you should expect in a one-to-one deal for each.
Here are the types of players based on a previous year's PPR scoring system that you should see in a one-to-one deal with an agreed expectation that Forte is a low-end RB1:
- A mid-range WR2.
- A mid-range TE1.
Here are the types of players you should see if the agreed expectation is Forte's worth a top-five RB value:
- A QB1 just below the top-five at the position.
- A WR1 just below the top-five at the position.
- Any TE (meaning, Gronkowski-for-Forte is a reasonable expectation)
This is probably why A.J. Green-for-Forte by itself doesn't feel right. Most see Green as a top-five guy at his position—even if he dropped in drafts. You'll want Forte and something extra to let go of the Bengal's receiver.
There's a reason why package deals always feel better. Below are ranges of player combos that I'd consider for Forte if a fantasy owner with Forte can agree with me that the Jets back falls between top-5 and low-end RB1 at the position in a 12-team PPR league. This range of agreement equates to the third tier (70-79 percent) of values I showed above.
There are other combos you can create from above but here's a range.
- A WR2 + a handcuff RB.
- A top 5-7 QB + a handcuff RB.
- A low-end RB1 + a handcuff RB.
- A low-range TE1 + an RB3.
- A solid RB2 + a bye-week RB.
- A solid RB2 + a WR6.
- Two RB3s + a bye-week RB.
These are the ones that I like the most.
Larry Fitzgerald: I already explained my reasons for Fitzgerald in this week's Top 10. I see his season playing out as no worse than a borderline WR1 and his upside as a top-5 swansong.
Trade Value: The evaluation above places him between the ranges of Tier Two and Tier Three. Here are some potential one-for-one deals.
- Top QB1-for-Fitzgerald: Did you land Drew Brees, Cam Newton or Aaron Rodgers and follow up with one of Matt Stafford, Jameis Winston, or Ben Roethlisberger? Or maybe you landed two of the second trio I just mentioned. If so, trading the bigger name straight-up for Fitzgerald is a fair one-to-one deal. If you can get the Fitzgerald owner to throw in a bye-week option or promising handcuff for your starting RB, do it.
- Elite TE1-for-Fitzgerald: Did you nab Rob Gronkowski but you also have Jason Witten and you could grab Dwayne Allen or Eric Ebron off the wire? If you're weak at WR, Gronkowski for Fitzgerald is fair on paper. You can probably get some Fitzgerald owners to give you a flex-play at RB or WR as part of the deal but if not, I'm sold on Fitzgerald if your team has real weaknesses and you are desperate to make a one-for-one trade.
- Top 5-7 RB-for-Fitzgerald: Do you have DeMarco Murray and the Fitzgerald owner has Derrick Henry? You could make a compelling argument that Murray's top-6 fantasy week was a good sign against as tough Minnesota defense. Maybe you could parlay Carlos Hyde's impressive night against the dysfunctional Rams to a desperate owner lacking RB depth. If not, you could consider trading a player like C.J. Anderson, David Johnson, or Matt Forte but I'd consider those three potential Tier 1 players and ask for a little more. The smarter move might be selling the idea that Jamaal Charles has top 5-7 upside or Thomas Rawls is still considered the main guy in Seattle once he gets healthy.
Potential package deals:
- Low-end RB1 + low-end WR2
- Two WR3s
- RB2 + low-end RB3
- Low-end TE1 + low-end RB2
- Low-end TE1 + low-end WR3
With package deals, you're always hoping a fantasy owner sees upside in one of the low-end options that you don't.
Ameer Abdullah: If anything, I'm consistent, right? That's what happens when you believe in talent. I didn't budge on LeVeon Bell when everyone said he wasn't quick enough. I didn't budge on Spencer Ware when he got and couldn't find a place to go but Kansas City's practice squad. And I didn't budge on Cedric Peerman...well, it doesn't always work out. You get the point, I like Abdullah, he looked good in Lions' offense and despite the fact he'll split touches with two other backs, he's the most talented—yes, that includes Dwayne Washington.
Abdullah has elite quickness, agility, and pass receiving skills. He's also stronger than characterized. I value him as a mid-range RB2 and despite questions about the ferocity of the Lions' defense (see below) there will be fantasy owners who think they are selling Abdullah high if they can get that kind of value in return for him. Negotiate appropriately.
Matt Stafford: I realize that the Colts defense is horrible, but I believe the Lions offense is not a mirage. Stafford no longer has to go against the grain of what quarterbacks are trained to do and that's not throwing to the double covered player. Because Calvin Johnson can't be all places at once, he's subtraction is actually an overall addition to the Lions.
(Note: I hated writing that last sentence. Why couldn't the Lions just add more weapons sooner? If you recall, they've tried really hard and failed. I suppose Calvin got tired of waiting.)
The more important detail is that the Lions defense isn't that good and Stafford and the Lions belong in the low-end range of the same category we're placing the Drew Brees and the Saints throwing for their lives to keep pace with their opponents.
Doug Baldwin and Jeremy Maclin: They aren't sexy plays that get fantasy owners clamoring for them but if you want to make safe deals for sound players, these two are excellent route runners with the trust of their quarterbacks regardless of the coverage. Maclin made some excellent plays against Jason Verrett on Sunday, including a sweet, back-shoulder catch. Regardless of Tyler Lockett or Jimmy Graham, Baldwin will command a lot of targets and limited to one area of the field. If you can get a fantasy owner of these two to value them as mid-range WR2s or even low-end WR2s, you may not be paying for the glittery upside of Donte Moncrief but you have an excellent chance of acquiring receivers who should offer at least equal production with even greater consistency. In case you missed it, Maclin passed his concussion protocol.
Tajae Sharpe: He was a high-end WR3 this week against a tough Vikings defense but if you want a bargain version of what Baldwin and Maclin bring to fantasy owners, I suggest you target Sharpe and that 7-76 stat line. If you can get him at WR4 price, you'll profit by season's end and his former owner will probably feel like he profited from where he drafted the Titans receiver. If you have to pay WR3 value, I'd consider it in PPR leagues.
Will Fuller: He's Ted Ginn Jr with a starting role. He'll drop passes like that potential 80-yarder on Sunday. But he'll also make big plays on screens, slants, crossing routes, and vertical plays. Ginn was a top-25 option last year, if you can get Fuller at WR3 value, you did well enough.
Tepid Waters
Austin Seferian-Jenkins: His leaping catch behind Sean Witherspoon for a 30-yard TD was awesome. He also forced rookie DeVondre Campbell into committing a pass interference penalty on the first drive. But it was Cameron Brate who saw the field during the two-minute drill and he was effective. I'm not sold on the big fella from Washington but if you're going to take the chance that he's a player who will become a mainstay of a good starting lineup, then let your roster test him out as a low-end TE1. Don't sell off your other tight ends just yet, but if Seferian-Jenkins overtakes Brate in all aspects of the job next week, you might have a player that allows you to sell off your mid-range TE1 that you drafted.
Chris Hogan: I liked the Patriots receiver's production this week, but most of his points came against a running back posing as a cornerback who blew a coverage. With Rob Gronkowski returning this week, I expect Hogan's production to fade until Tom Brady returns. If Hogan indeed has a bad Week 2, I'd consider tagging Hogan as a WR4-WR5 value and see if you can buy him low. If you own him, stay patient.
Phillip Dorsett: I'm concerned that his 4-94 boxscore was a product of the Lions' scheme and being at the right place at the right time. Well Waldman, isn't good route running about being at the right place at the right time? Yes, it is but there was something more fortuitous about Dorsett's targets than a reflection of pure craft and preparation. I'm not sold yet.
Jeremy Langford: I know it was the Houston defense but a 3.4-yard per carry average fits what I see from Langford's skill as a runner. He'll break big runs but the creases have to be big enough for first-time Madden player with raging case of pink eye to see. Not that bad, but I'm waiting to see if Langford can hold onto this gig because he's good or if it's by default.
Wet Blankets
Latavius Murray: Not only was Murray's top-15 game against the lowly Saints, it was the undrafted rookie gem Jalen Richard who saw significant fourth quarter time at the end of the game. When a team plays a rookie this late in the game it's often a statement about how they feel about him even if the production isn't fantastic. I saw it with Ray Rice early in his career and also with Spencer Ware in Seattle. I'm not telling you to run out and grab Richard in re-draft leagues but I wouldn't be surprised if the rookie earns more time if Murray struggles next week.
If you have the luxury or your team is only strong at RB and dying elsewhere, take a chance on rookie and see if you can do a quick deal this week that parlays Murray's top-15 RB performance into a deal for a low-end RB1, WR2 or mid-range TE1 like Travis Kelce or Julius Thomas. If it works out, you might have unloaded Murray at twice his value, gained no worse than a flex-play in Richard, and earned the spoils of the deal that I suggested above. Risky, but so is Murray if you ask me.
Charles Sims: Yep, he out-did Doug Martin. How? He caught a pass at the right hash, made two inexperienced linebackers fall into each other and scurried to the end zone. It was more impressive that I described, but the better player was Martin and it wasn't close. Martin touched the ball 23 times to Sims 7 attempts and this silly play was the only reason why Martin wasn't the dominant fantasy producer of the two. Although Martin wasn't great on the box score, he looked fine. I still like Sims as an RB3 with RB2 upside in PPR but the fact that Sims didn't dominate the targets in the passing game like some stats jockeys foretold, should be of concern.
Mike Wallace: Good luck with these 3-91-1 box score results. I like his pairing with Joe Flacco, but I prefer Will Fuller at likely a lower price. Wallace is a Ted Ginn Jr-type player with the right kind of quarterback to deliver him the ball. It doesn't make him a WR1. If you get another good week from the speedster against the Browns, I'd sell him at a high-end or mid-range WR2 value and profit.