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This team represents my gut feelings put into round-by-round action. My gut feelings are formed from spending thousands of hours watching game film, studying data, and talking with fellow writers, coaches, and players. Still, I'm not offering you full-formed, logical explanations for my picks in this article.
In fact, to make sure I'm working from my intuition, I'm picking these players as I write this piece. I don't know any better than you who is going to be on this list. I'll comment on what I make of this group at the end. I'm only picking one player per round and it's based on who I have the strongest feeling about.
I'm doing this piece because one of the most common questions I'm asked is "what's your gut feeling on a player." Why not indulge you? I'm not choosing kickers or defenses.
Round 1: RB Ezekiel Elliott
I've written all along that Elliott is a first-round fantasy option as a rookie. All I've ever cared about with Elliott is him emerging from the preseason healthy. The Cowboys made sure to give him time to heal from the hamstring and it showed in Seattle last night. Kam Chancellor welcomed Elliott into the NFL, and Elliott game the hard-hitting safety change in return.
So how'd he do?
Every run from @EzekielElliott's NFL debut! 👇 #DALvsSEA https://t.co/34vLA0RJvP
— NFL (@NFL) August 26, 2016
You can see the confidence with his acceleration towards creases or contact. He's a finisher who understands how to place his pads and use his burst. He's a sturdy, polished, versatile, refined football player and he's working behind the best offensive line in football. He may have no track record in the NFL but I have a feeling that he knows he belongs in the league.
Round 2: Keenan Allen
He reminds me of a deer. If there weren't already an all-time Chargers' great nicknamed "Bambi" I would have considered that moniker for Allen when I first saw him at Cal. Now that Allen is in optimal condition after a heavier rookie year, he looks like that sudden athlete I saw when he was a freshman and sophomore. While Allen Robinson caught my eye here, he's at the borderline of the first and second round and I don't believe I'll land him in round two. Allen will make plays all over the field and I think the Chargers offense will be healthy enough to thrive as fantasy options and a surprise playoff team.
Round 3: C.J. Anderson
Doug Martin earned consideration here but he's also at the very top of the third round and I haven't seen him drop beyond the second round in most of my drafts. Anderson is here and boy, he looks ready.
.@cjandersonb22 sees a hole, bursts through...
SEE YA!
TD @Broncos! #SFvsDEN https://t.co/WqHFARkGud
— NFL (@NFL) August 21, 2016
Look at the way he finishes this run at the goal line. That's a strong, flexible athlete in prime condition right there. When you get knocked backward with a hit like that and still have the power and flexibility to redirect your momentum and extend the ball? Yeah, give me that guy. I have a feeling his quarterback situation won't hurt him nearly as much as fantasy owners think.
Round 4: Russell Wilson
He's the best quarterback in football. You may disagree with that statement but here's why I believe it's true. Wilson may not be on the same strategic level as Drew Brees or Tom Brady but he has the same ice water in his veins to believe he can win no matter how much his team is down or how bad his pass protection. He may lack the receiving corps that Aaron Rodgers or Carson Palmer had in recent years but like Brees he's generating great production without the big names. And Wilson may not have the overpowering physical build of Ben Roethlisberger, Cam Newton, or Andrew Luck but he extends plays with more quickness, creativity, and wisdom than any quarterback in recent memory.
😱😱😱
Russell Wilson is a MAGICIAN.
There's really no other explanation for how he escaped this pressure. #DALvsSEA https://t.co/NZ8sW6EcmT
— NFL (@NFL) August 26, 2016
These plays may define his career but they don't define the foundation of his game. If this is all he did and he lacked the other qualities that I mentioned, he'd be Mike Vick with less speed.
I had an hour-long conversation with a quarterback coach of major college and pro passers this week. We talked about the position, the state of the education of the position, offensive systems, and the transition from one level to the next (high school, college, and NFL). One insight that was reaffirmed with this conversation was the parallels between quarterbacking and music.
The state of music education today is better than it has ever been. The Internet and digital technology have given young musicians access to great performers, educators, and techniques that most would otherwise not experience during childhood and adolescence. The result is a lot of young musicians who have refined a lot of great skills and techniques. Listen to them do a few things and they sound like professionals.
But get most of them on the stage with seasoned players and you begin to hear the difference. Knowing great lines, playing in tune, playing in rhythm, understanding harmony, and having a good sound are excellent qualities but until you can integrate it all and make good music, it's just a bunch of disparate skills.
Michael Vick had great licks. Alex Smith understands harmony. Matt Ryan has great time in certain tempos. And Joe Flacco has a big sound. But Russell Wilson, Drew Brees, Tom Brady, and Aaron Rodgers make music.
Even Peyton Manning, whose technique and physical skills were failing him, understood how to make music well enough to manage the offense of a Super Bowl winning team. He still integrated what he had to keep it musical.
Give me Russell Wilson. He's a maestro.
Round 5: Larry Fitzgerald
Old-man game. I wrote about it earlier this week with Antonio Gates. It also applies to slot receivers operating in zones. Fitzgerald has old-man game and he still has the physicality and just enough explosiveness to win beyond the shallow zones. When it's third-down, the fourth quarter or the Cardinals are in the red zone, Fitzgerald is the money player. He's the most experienced, he's the most versatile, he's the quickest thinker, and he has a quarterback who has been around enough to be on a similar plain. Michael Floyd was my top receiver in his rookie class. I like John Brown. Still, give me the graybeard.
Round 6: Allen Hurns
Everyone is down on the Jaguars and especially Hurns. Everyone talks about his TD production as a fluke. Maybe. What I can tell you is that Hurns consistently makes plays after contact, he had the 7th-best deep-ball production in the league last year, he's also considered a good red zone option based on his decision-making and skill to win the ball above his head and in tight coverage, his drop rate shrunk dramatically, and he did it all last year with a sports hernia.
A good process generates consistent outcomes. Hurns is a good receiver who gets it done in a variety of ways. Good routes, catch-point toughness, vertical prowess, and trust on third down with his quarterback. Add that up, and I see touchdowns. Maybe not 12-14 touchdowns, but 8-10 scores and another season of 1000 yards receiving.
Round 7: Ameer Abdullah
The boomerang by fantasy owners on Abdullah is rooted in fear of looking bad. They were excited as can be about him after he had a few pretty runs in the preseason but when he fumbled the ball and didn't produce as they saw in the summer, they fled. I'm not saying this is with every analyst—Cecil Lammey has very specific reasons why he's not a fan that happened well before last preseason—but for many, their bandwagon jumping on Abdullah is indicative of basing their analysis on highlights and box scores rather than concepts rooted in sound football knowledge.
Nothing about what I saw from Abdullah in limited time with the Lions has changed my mind about what I learned about his game at Nebraska. I felt the same way about C.J. Anderson, Christine Michael, Isaiah Crowell, Spencer Ware, LeVeon Bell, LeGarrette Blount, and Devonta Freeman. While the fickle nature some expressed fear, doubt, or completely wrote off these backs there are others who understood that the process was there, the mistakes would be overcome, and with more opportunity, things would work out.
Abdullah is good enough to render the backfield by committee idea obsolete. He may not do it right away but if he makes the improvements I expect and shows what I've seen last year with greater consistency, you'll wish you got him.
Round 8: Josh Gordon
Janis Joplin, Jimi Hendrix, Charlie Parker, John Belushi, Len Bias, Steve Howe, Don Rogers. Although these are the ones most celebrated, not all stories about great talents with off-stage troubles that end tragically in one way or another. Cris Carter and Brett Favre are among several players who have overcome drug and alcohol issues to make the most of their talent. Gordon has always been a special talent and I believe him when he said last year after the Browns pulled a defeat from the hands of victory against the Ravens that he realized that he owned that defeat for his behavior that kept him from playing. The match with Hue Jackson, Robert Griffin, Corey Coleman, and Isaiah Crowell feels right. He'll be labeled a league-winner this time next year and the only 8 near his ADP will have a 1.0- in front of it.
Round 9: Martellus Bennett
I love Stefon Diggs and Antonio Gates but I think Bennett as top-five upside at his position in a unique offense. He's lost nothing as an athlete and even if he has a poor start with Brady suspended, I have a feeling he'll be huge down the stretch. Aaron Hernadez had 79 catches for 910 yards and 7 scores in this two-tight end offense. Bennett's best season as a Bear was 90-916-6 in 2014 (No.5 among TEs).
I see him repeating this in New England and if he's only in the range of 65-759-5, which I think is the more reasonable projection range, it's top-10 production most years. But I have a feeling he's going to be closer to 80-90 catches.
Round 10: Isaiah Crowell
See Josh Gordon and redemption stories. Crowell has top-12 talent and based on Hue Jackson's statements, I believe the Browns' staff recognizes it.
Round 11: Michael Thomas
Some are faster and some have a better surrounding talent. But I'll take a strong talent who knows how to work hard and smart with his Hall of Fame quarterback. Thomas will be the most productive rookie receiver in 2016.
Round 12: Christine Michael
Thomas Rawls better run like someone set his pants on fire because Michael won't cede time easily. Pete Carroll is all about competition and earning opportunities. Marshawn Lynch was an exceptional case for Carroll and until Rawls can author 3-4 iconic runs in the history of football in big moments, don't expect him to earn the lion's share of the carries with Michael looking like Edgerrin James in James' prime.
Round 13: Kenneth Dixon
Kenneth Dixon was over 230 pounds when he arrived at Louisiana Tech. He moves like a 195-pound scat back who presumably struggled to reach 210-215 pounds. He played stint on the defensive line in high school and led the line in tackles during that time. He kicks long field goals with accuracy.
When he started at Tech as a runner, he caught back shoulder fades that would have put Davante Adams to shame. He broke Marshall Faulk's freshman TD record. Dixon is one of those players who the game speaks to and he listens. He may not be the starter now but I have a feeling he will be in November.
Round 14: Spencer Ware
“If I had to take a hit from anybody, it wouldn’t be Spencer Ware. He’s a guy who’s going to put everything into it and fight for that extra yard.”
– Josh Dworaczyk, LSU Tackle
A hot-running, helmet-crunching, break-your-back, back-carrying warrior. Joe Holka's Rushing Expectation numbers see it and Lance Zierlien's metrics had insanely high numbers for Ware on 72 carries. At this range of the draft, I'm looking for really good football players. Forget Punt, Pass, and Kick, Ware wins the Run, Catch, and Kick-Your-Ass competition (lyrics NSFW)
Round 15: Charles Clay
The Bills' best big-play secondary option in the passing game is Clay. Sometimes players need a year to get acclimated to a new system and I think the combo of Clay's arrival from Miami and Tyrod Taylor's first year made the adjustment less than smooth. Not this year.
Round 16: Tajae Sharpe
The game isn't too big for him and if/when he out-produces Sterling Shepard (a fine rookie), I'm looking forward to Matt Harmon's reactions.
Round 17: Teddy Bridgewater
Bridgewater has always played with excellent in-game feel. The expanded knowledge of Norv Turner's system has taken time and the offensive line has been a mess but I feel it's all about to click into place.
Round 18: Kenny Stills
He's not getting drafted and he's the third-down receiver of note this preseason. The drumbeat of his performances from spring through the present has been steadily strong. DaVante Parker isn't improving and Stills gets open short, deep, and in the intermediate range. I have a weird feeling that we'll wish Parker had an undrafted ADP and Stills was the guy you could get in rounds 5-7.
Round 19: Ben Watson
Watson was always an athletic stud on the field. Dropped passes and injuries always held him back. Last year was the type of season I always expected from him as a fantasy owner. If Steve Smith doesn't return to some semblance of form, Watson could easily be the strongest No.3 option in this passing game.
Round 20: Paul Richardson Jr
I've had the feeling that the Seahawks would eventually morph into a passing offense. Although the presence of an awakened Christine Michael and surprisingly good Thomas Rawls appears to counter this idea, I have a feeling one becomes the clear lead back and the Seahawks use Doug Baldwin, Tyler Lockett, and a healthy Paul Richardson Jr as the main trio of options. I'm skeptical that Jimmy Graham returns to form and Richardson benefits.
Keeping Score
QBs: Russell Wilson, Teddy Bridgewater
RB: Ezekiel Elliott, C.J. Anderson, Ameer Abdullah, Isaiah Crowell, Christine Michael, Kenneth Dixon, Spencer Ware
WR: Keenan Allen, Allen Hurns, Larry Fitzgerald, Josh Gordon, Michael Thomas, Tajae Sharpe, Kenny Stills, Paul Richardson Jr
TE: Martellus Bennett, Charles Clay
I think I could roll with this unit and be happy with it.
First-call Waiver options
Virgil Green, Jalen Richard, Dwayne Washington, Richard Rodgers, Tyler Higbee, Malcolm Brown, and Austin Hooper.
We'll see how well my gut treats me. Good luck everyone!
