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Do you ask five different writers for the same fantasy advice and choose your path based on the majority answer? Do you think of average draft position as "what you're supposed to do?" Do you feel alright about your fantasy season if you don't win the championship but "at least make the playoffs?"
This article isn't for you. Click the red "X" in the top corner of your browser and leave. This week's advice isn't for people who are more concerned with looking right than trying to win big.
I have no problem with sticking with ADP and following established strategies that have become generally accepted by the public. Conventional moves keep a fantasy owner grounded and steady during a draft. One of the great benefits of conventional strategies is that when others make mistakes or personnel from other teams falter, your approach will be good enough to contend.
There comes a point in any fantasy career where you want to take risks. You see the conventional moves during your draft but there's at least one well-considered move that flies in its face. Although tempted to break the rule, your stick with the "right move" only to have this nagging feeling that you should have followed the other path.
When the regular season confirms that alternate choice, you regret that you didn't believe in your thought process and analysis that defied conventional thinking. I tired of this about 10 years ago and I made the decision that, in at least half of my drafts, I would take big risks.
I'm playing to win my leagues, not make the playoffs. I'm playing to test my analysis that differs from the pack. I'm experimenting with ideas that I can one day share with you.
I'm not trying to please a governing body that tracks my win-loss record, points scored, and playoff appearances. I'd rather go 0-13 on a path that I believed in than go 7-6 and get bounced from the first week of the playoffs with the same old-same old.
Here are some high-risk ideas I'm considering for 2016 drafts. Rate My Team won't like you but who cares? It dresses funny, it's nervous in public, and it clucks like a yardbird whenever Chase Stuart is around. I think it has a crush on him.
These ideas and the cornerstone players I'm pairing with them equate to a philosophy that's a go big or go home but with the potential for a surplus at running back or wide receiver so you can have some trade value for positions that are easier to acquire in a negotiation.
Late-Round QB
The "pro move" is to wait on quarterbacks. For most, it means targeting a quarterback in rounds 8-12: Eli Manning,Philip Rivers, Derek Carr, Jameis Winston, Kirk Cousins, Matthew Stafford, Matt Ryan, Tyrod Taylor, and Ryan Tannehill. Compile a QBBC with two of these nine passers and you're looking smart.
I tend to agree. Manning and Rivers are always available in this range and safe options. Winston, Stafford and Ryan have upside. I might even take a chance on one of Cousins, Taylor, or Tannehill for various compelling reasons.
That's for another article, I'm more interested in who is available after the 13th round: Ryan Fitzpatrick (late 13th), Teddy Bridgewater (late 16th), Robert Griffin (19th) and Blaine Gabbert (his ADP isn't even in the first 20 rounds). I'm far more interested in two of Fitzpatrick, Bridgewater, and Griffin (in this order) but if you miss on one, Gabbert will be available.
Fitzpatrick's journeyman reputation and his holdout depressed his ADP about 3-4 rounds lower than it should be for a QB1. If he didn't get knocked from the Raiders game, Fitzpatrick would have been a 4,000-yard passer. It was his second season as a fantasy QB1 during his career and the Jets have the most offensive talent he's had during his career, including excellent veteran support at the skill positions and an offensive coordinator with a proven track record for getting the most from his talent.
Add Matt Forte to the mix of Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker, and this offense has three receivers who have caught 100 passes in a season during their career. Quincy Enunwa is a rising talent with skills after the catch and an athletic profile similar to Terrell Owens. If Jace Amaro figures it out, Fitzpatrick should easily reach 4000 yards and repeat last year's 30-TD performance.
I've written about Bridgewater all year: healthy offensive line + healthy-improved receiving corps = more time and optimal targets for Teddy. His improved deep ball has shown up consistently in camp and it made an appearance against the Browns on a 49-yard bomb to Charles Johnson after climbing the pocket from pressure.
I believe the line issues disguised the prowess of Bridgewater franchise quarterback and his improvement from 2014-2015. When I can get him in the 15th or 16th round, it's a win. Fitzpatrick-Bridgewater doesn't even feel that high-risk to me, which is an indication that I'm confident in taking them. Griffin and Gabbert feel far riskier but I can see a path leads to viable production for both and at a price that, in theory, could help you fortify other areas of your depth chart.
With Corey Coleman, Terrelle Pryor, and Josh Gordon as his receivers, Griffin's deep game should be productive this year. I think there will be rough spots where Griffin gets caught making middle-of-the-field decisions that aren't fruitful but I'm willing to bet on the tremendous upside of a potential big-play passing offense. I"m expecting true fantasy value for Griffin in 2017 and 2016 as a solid step in the right direction for the Browns' quarterback but if I can roll with him as my QB2 to Fitzpatrick or Bridgewater, I'll take the risk on him performing well down the stretch.
I'm betting as much on Gabbert improving on last year's decent stretch-run as I am on Chip Kelly getting the most from the former Jaguar's quarterback. I was never a fan of Nick Foles' game and Kelly got QB1 production from the former Arizona Wildcat.
Gabbert always had a great arm and good mobility but I'm seeing a better pocket player than I did in Jacksonville. The Texans game this weekend showed a quarterback who is willing to step into pressure and hit receivers in tight windows. I'm not excited about the receiving corps as a unit but Gabbert could deliver as a garbage time specialist at an excellent bargain.
The fringe benefits of Late-Round QB is the opportunity to get the most from an Upside-Down Draft, or a balanced RB-WR-TE approach. You also can be the first to take a defense and kicker while still loading up on upside depth at runner and receiver.
Late-Round QB and Mid-Round TE
Some people refer to rounds 5-10 as the middle rounds. Technically, we all know the 7th-13th is the midpoint range of a 20-round draft. When a fantasy owner decides to go late at quarterback when it usually warrants a mid-round pick, there's often a desire to "recoup" that value with an early-round prospect at tight end.
Resisting that urge gives a fantasy owner more depth at wide receiver and running back. As I've been writing about for the past three years, quarterback and tight end are two of the easier skill positions to acquire via trade and the waiver wire. If I'm going to go cheap in a draft, I'd rather build a strong surplus at runner and receiver.
Most likely, that surplus will be with receivers if I want to have a competitive roster that only has one potential weakness. This year, the tight end group appears to have enough depth in these middle rounds to resist the temptation of taking a safer player like Gronkowski, Olsen, or Kelce. There's a greater risk but the opportunity to land a solid Top-10 tight end after the 10th round leads to more depth at the positions with the most value.
Here are mocks at the 1,6, and 12-spots that have late-round quarterback choices and in some cases, mid-round tight end combos.
1st Spot-Draft A
The underlying strategy with my team build is simply taking players I think will be good based on skill, scheme fit, and ADP value relative to their peers. Because there was no need to set up my draft for a QB in rounds 9-10, I could double up on tight end at the 11-12 turn, get Gut Check fave Spencer Ware, and take Matt Ryan, a player I didn't expect to fall this far, in the 14th.
Ryan has lost a lot street cred among fantasy owners in recent years but I'm banking on Mohamed Sanu, Alex Mack, and a second season running this offense as favorable reasons to pair the Falcons passer with Teddy Bridgewater. I expect Ryan's upside is the bottom end of the top-12 and that's just fine with me.
Some may consider this a low-risk pick when I'm touting a high-risk strategy with four specific targets. I was hoping Ryan Fitzpatrick would fall to the 13th. When the Jets quarterback left in the 10th, Ryan's fall is something I see as a solid replacement—both players have upside in the 10-12 range of rankings even if I like the Marshall-Decker duo more than Jones-Sanu.
With my quarterbacks gone and safe picks like the Cardinals defense and Justin Tucker with ADPs I could wait another round on, I reached for Christine Michael. I figure that if Michael continues to shine, my "reach" will turn out to be a value by late August.
Overall, I love my receivers. When the toughest lineup decision could be choosing between Fitzgerald, Maclin and Jones for the third and/or fourth receiver spot, I'm feeling good. I picked Sharpe on Monday before we learned about the Dorial Green-Beckham trade. I doubt I'll get him in the 20th again.
Anderson, Murray and Abdullah have question marks but I think I can get solid play from two backs when throwing in Crowell, Powell and Michael in the mix. The team could suffer if I cannot identify the best matchup and my musical chairs is miss-timed.
I'll fail if neither quarterback provides me top-15 production on a consistent basis and I cannot leverage my WR/RB depth for a better passer in enough time to finish strong. The hope is that I've limited my weakness to one position where it's not insurmountable to be weaker than average.
6th Spot - Draft C
This draft has more Upside Down influences but I wasn't heading into the draft with this strategy in mind. I again decided that the only things I would do is wait until at least the 13th round to take my first quarterback and before that, take whatever players I believe presented me with the most value based on the same factors I outlined in Draft A.
I would have been happy with Jones, Allen, or Watkins as my WR1 and I landed all three. I hoped Forte would fall in my lap in the fourth but he was scooped up a pick shy of mine. I would normally wait on a tight end but I wanted to see what taking a player with Reed's upside would do for me here. I debated between Lockett and Decker as well as Fitzgerald and Marvin Jones. I easily could have considered the pair I left on the board; it was that close.
My desire to pick receivers I continued to value higher than the backs on the board meant I took the Bengals backfield, Pittsburgh's temporary starter, and my depth is mostly the hope that Crowell meets Hue Jackson's expectations and Spencer Ware and Christine Michael can carve out meaningful roles.
It's not a great haul on paper but I took DeAngelo Williams because it buys me time to have starter production while I figure out the Hill-Bernard tandem. If both work out, I'm in good shape. If one does, and a back is struggling to emerge from my depth chart I have enough trade bait at receiver to get a quality runner.
In this draft, Fitzpatrick fell to me in the 13th and I followed up with Bridgewater in the 15th. Because I wasn't feeling great about my runners, I took late shots on Mike Davis and Zach Zenner. Rate My Team is probably having a conniption when it sees my quarterbacks and running backs but no guts, no glory.
6th Spot-Draft D
Once again, I'm looking at best value according to my beliefs on player, scheme, and ADP peers. Maybe I could have landed Doug Martin in the mid-third but the percentages were too low for me to try it.
I loved that Brandon Marshall fell despite the fact that I also wanted Sammy Watkins. Depending on the day, Watkins might have been the pick.
I thought Matt Forte would make it to me and I'd get my two "value veterans" getting knocked down due to committee concerns. Maclin is a solid consolation prize considering that I'm willing to take a shot on Demarco Murray and Ameer Abdullah. As RB2s I think they're attractive options.
My colleagues may believe otherwise but Larry Fitzgerald in the seventh is like someone handing me uncut diamonds because they mistook them for worthless rocks. Following up with Stefon Diggs and Marvin Jones as depth that could outplay Marshall or Maclin something I'm thrilled with—espeically when Funchess in the 11th.
While I got my man Briedgewater, Fitzpatrick once again left the draft pool two rounds earlier than I hoped. I took Bridgewater a couple of rounds earlier just to make sure I landed him. In hindsight I could have waited another round, maybe two. I was a pick shy of landing Robert Griffin in the 16th, which left me Gabbert in the 19th. I could have waited until the 20th but I figured Paul Richardson Jr was less likely to leave the board than Gabbert.
Once again, Christine Michael was available. This was one of the first mocks where I took him and it's the latest round. I don't antipicipate his value to remain here after what happened last weekend.
If Bridgewater works out, I'm in fine shape. If not, I better hope I have enough receiver talent to trade for a passer.
12th Spot-Draft D
Once again, no preconceived strategy beyond taking players I believe in and waiting until at least the 13th round for a quarterback. It's new territory for me to look at Allen Robinson at the end of the first round and feel excited about this spot as a value for him. What a difference a year makes.
I don't land Lamar Miller much in drafts but I'm pleased when it happens. A Miller and Anderson backfield is one of my more sought-after combos of backs in terms of draft value because I can still afford a receiver like Robinson and follow up with a strong group of supporting players like Jeremy Macline, Eric Decker, Larry Fitzgerald, Marvin Jones, and Tyler Lockett.
I actually went overboard on the receivers. I wouldn't blame you if you broke up this four-round run of receivers and took a back like DeMarco Murray, Giovani Bernard, Melvin Gordon, or Ameer Abdullah. I was waiting on Abdullah at the end of the seventh, but it was about two picks too long of a wait.
I'm still happy with the draft. Isaiah Crowell makes a reasonable flex or by-week option when DeAngelo Williams is placed back on the Steelers' shelf. Once again, I went with consecutive rounds of tight ends after the 10th round, added Spencer Ware, and then picked my first quarterback.
I thought I'd land Robert Griffin in the 17th-18th but underestimated the timing, which means I ended my draft with Blaine Gabbert. I think there's enough strength with my receiving corps that I might find a worthwhile quarterback if the need arises.
12th Spot-Draft E
I did this mock a few weeks ago, so the values on players have some differences but I still find it worthwhile to share. You know I'm higher on Adrian Peterson than most so landing him at the end of the first round is a dream for me. I don't usually take a tight end here but when I get a player that I believe will be a top-three fantasy player (non-QB) this year and I believe there's enough receiving depth to wait another round, why not take Rob Gronkowski here?
Sammy Watkins, Brandon Marshall, Jeremy Maclin, and Larry Fitzgerald aren't the sexiest quartet of options but I'd roll with it in any draft. The block of Ameer Abdullah, Ryan Mathews, Justin Forsett, and Isaiah Crowell has potential for me to land a good RB2 and the addition of DeAngelo Williams in the 12th (see what I mean about the timing of this mock? It was before LeVeon Bell's suspension) gives me four weeks to determine if I have a capable RB2 without testing him in my September lineups.
I can't resist Antonio Gates in the 13th round. Old tight ends in and old strong safeties in IDP usually pay dividends for me. Gates is the Charles Woodson of tight ends. Teddy Bridgewater in the 15th and Robert Griffin in the 17th suit me fine with this high-risk approach. If it backfires, my hope will be strength at the running back position to deal for a quarterback if waiver wire wonder doesn't land in my lap in September.