Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 3

Weekly Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread). NFL Office Pool Cheat Sheet

Looking to dominate your office pool this season? 18 Footballguys.com staff members are here to help you out. Each week they will pick the winners of every NFL game, and rank their selections based on how confident they are that the team will win. The most confident pick gets 16 points, and the least confident gets just 1. We'll even total up everyone's picks so you can get an 'overall consensus' on who our staff think will be the most likely winners. Each week we'll announce the weekly winners, and track the overall record for the entire season. A couple of things to note before we get to the picks:

  • Picks for this pool are straight up (no point spread considered). 
  • Picks are due on Wednesday nights, and may not reflect late-breaking news. If your league allows for last minute changes, please make adjustments to your office pool accordingly. 
  • Our staffers also play in weekly picks Against The Spread, and Survivor Style 'Pick one Winner each week' formats as well. Check out the other weekly articles for more help with those type of games. 

RESULTS from last week

It was a close one, but even with Philadelphia's win on Monday night, Andy Hicks still pulled it out. Andy took the Bears to win on Monday night, but even though they lost, he manaaged to hold off Dave Larkin by a point 105-104. Hicks missed five games, and lost 12 confidence points on Oakland, but still managed to take home the weekly win. Larkin nearly took home consecutive wins, but he had six incorrect picks this week, including losing 14 points on Seattle. 

Staffer NYJ BAL MIA DAL TEN KC SF CIN NO TB SEA ATL JAX IND GB PHI MNF TOT
  BUF CLE NE WAS DET HOU CAR PIT NYG ARI LAR OAK SD DEN MIN CHI TOT Pts
Hicks BUF BAL NE WAS DET HOU CAR PIT NYG ARI LAR OAK SD DEN MIN CHI 41 105
  3 1 16 7 4 6 15 8 9 11 13 12 2 14 10 5    
Larkin NYJ BAL NE DAL DET HOU CAR PIT NYG ARI SEA OAK JAX DEN GB CHI 47 104
  10 13 16 8 8 5 15 7 6 12 14 4 4 11 2 1    
Mamula NYJ BAL NE DAL DET HOU CAR PIT NYG ARI SEA OAK JAX DEN GB CHI 42 99
  12 13 14 11 10 9 16 8 7 6 15 5 4 3 2 1    
Garda NYJ BAL NE DAL DET HOU CAR PIT NYG ARI SEA OAK JAX DEN GB PHI 45 98
  2 14 15 3 7 1 13 8 12 11 16 6 5 9 4 10    
Miglio BUF BAL NE WAS DET HOU CAR PIT NYG ARI SEA OAK SD DEN GB CHI 46 94
  2 12 11 3 9 5 16 10 13 15 14 7 4 8 6 1    
Tuccitto NYJ BAL NE DAL DET HOU CAR PIT NYG ARI SEA OAK JAX DEN GB CHI 49 92
  4 10 14 3 13 1 16 9 8 15 11 7 2 12 5 6    
Pasquino NYJ BAL NE DAL DET HOU CAR PIT NYG ARI SEA OAK JAX DEN GB CHI 43 90
  2 12 14 4 7 3 16 10 11 13 15 6 9 5 8 1    
Wimer NYJ BAL NE WAS DET HOU CAR PIT NYG ARI SEA OAK JAX DEN GB PHI 52 90
  9 14 12 8 13 7 15 6 5 10 16 4 3 11 2 1    
Roberts NYJ BAL NE WAS DET KC CAR PIT NYG ARI LAR OAK JAX DEN GB CHI 40 89
  5 14 15 1 10 4 16 12 7 9 3 11 6 8 13 2    
Gray NYJ BAL NE WAS DET HOU CAR PIT NYG ARI SEA OAK JAX DEN GB CHI 45 88
  5 15 13 3 12 4 16 8 6 11 14 9 1 10 7 2    
Brimacombe NYJ BAL NE WAS DET HOU CAR PIT NYG ARI SEA OAK JAX DEN GB PHI 45 87
  1 13 3 4 12 11 16 10 9 15 14 8 5 7 6 2    
Wood NYJ BAL NE WAS DET HOU CAR PIT NYG TB SEA OAK JAX DEN GB PHI 46 87
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1    
Grant BUF BAL MIA DAL DET HOU CAR PIT NYG ARI SEA OAK SD DEN GB PHI 41 84
  1 11 14 2 10 8 16 5 7 13 9 12 3 15 6 4    
Feery NYJ BAL NE WAS TEN KC CAR PIT NYG ARI SEA OAK JAX DEN GB CHI 42 83
  2 9 12 1 7 10 16 5 4 15 11 14 6 13 8 3    
Knotts BUF BAL NE WAS DET KC CAR PIT NYG ARI SEA OAK JAX DEN GB PHI 44 82
  1 15 8 2 11 3 13 9 6 12 16 7 4 14 10 5    
Kuczynski NYJ BAL NE WAS DET KC CAR PIT NYG ARI SEA OAK JAX DEN GB PHI 44 79
  5 13 11 4 10 6 15 8 3 14 12 7 2 9 16 1    
Bitonti NYJ BAL NE DAL DET KC CAR CIN NO ARI SEA OAK SD DEN GB CHI 48 64
  9 16 6 5 7 12 15 3 11 4 14 10 8 1 13 2    
Heiser NYJ BAL NE WAS DET KC CAR PIT NO ARI SEA OAK JAX DEN GB CHI 42 55
  12 11 16 10 9 8 7 5 4 3 15 14 2 1 13 6    
Away NYJ BAL MIA DAL TEN KC SF CIN NO TB SEA ATL JAX IND GB PHI    
Total Pts 94 221 14 36 7 43 0 3 15 7 212 0 57 0 123 24    
Home BUF CLE NE WAS DET HOU CAR PIT NYG ARI LAR OAK SD DEN MIN CHI    
Total Pts 7 0 210 56 164 71 262 137 121 189 16 148 17 154 10 30    

The weekend upsets started early, with Detroit falling to Tennessee 16-15. The big upset of the week was the Rams surprise performance against the Seahawks, outlasting them in a field-goal festival 9-3. Seattle took down 212 confidence points from the field. Andy Hicks was one of only 2 staffers to pick the Rams to win, and it was a big part of why he took home this week's crown.  Oakland was also an upset lost that hurt. 

OVERALL RANKINGS

Larkin had an impressive lead after week 1, but considering how poorly the top of the leaderboard this week, he's extended his lead to an impressive 39 points. Garda climbed into second with 98 points this week and Miglio moved into 3rd with 94. 

Staffer Wk01 Wk02 Wk03 Wk04 Wk05 Wk06 Wk07 Wk08 Wk09 Wk10 Wk11 Wk12 Wk13 Wk14 Wk15 Wk16 Wk17 Total
Larkin 120 104                               224
Garda 87 98                               185
Miglio 88 94                               182
Tuccitto 87 92                               179
Mamula 79 99                               178
Kuczynski 98 79                               177
Roberts 88 89                               177
Pasquino 84 90                               174
Wood 86 87                               173
Gray 85 88                               173
Wimer 83 90                               173
Knotts 88 82                               170
Hicks 64 105                               169
Brimacombe 74 87                               161
Grant 75 84                               159
Feery 72 83                               155
Bitonti 90 64                               154
Heiser 82 55                               137

Unfortunately Hicks finished last after week 1, so his week 2 win barely moved him out of the basement. If you follow this column at all, you know Andy's more about picking the weekly winners than he is about the overall chase and he's proven again why that strategy can work. 

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week

Staffer HOU DEN WAS MIN CLE BAL ARI OAK DET LAR SF SD NYJ PIT CHI ATL MNF
  NE CIN NYG CAR MIA JAX BUF TEN GB TB SEA IND KC PHI DAL NO TOTAL
Miglio NE CIN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI TEN GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 51
  2 5 14 12 16 1 13 4 11 6 10 8 7 9 15 3  
Garda HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA BAL ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND NYJ PIT DAL NO 70
  8 13 14 9 12 10 16 11 15 6 5 7 1 4 3 2  
Hicks NE CIN NYG CAR MIA BAL BUF TEN GB TB SEA IND KC PHI DAL NO 45
  11 12 13 15 14 3 2 4 16 6 9 8 1 5 10 7  
Heiser HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 56
  11 10 9 8 7 6 16 5 15 14 13 4 3 2 12 1  
Feery HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA BAL ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND NYJ PIT DAL NO 52
  11 10 8 16 12 6 14 5 9 3 15 2 4 13 7 1  
Kuczynski HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA BAL ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 53
  3 2 10 12 14 1 16 5 11 4 9 7 6 15 13 8  
Gray HOU CIN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 52
  6 3 12 13 16 2 15 1 11 8 7 4 5 10 14 9  
Tuccitto HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA BAL ARI TEN GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 49
  2 3 11 13 15 4 10 1 14 8 16 7 9 6 12 5  
Larkin NE CIN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI TEN GB TB SEA SD KC PIT DAL NO 68
  6 12 11 4 13 5 10 7 16 9 15 3 2 1 14 8  
Knotts HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA BAL ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 55
  1 2 3 15 16 4 14 9 13 5 12 11 10 8 6 7  
Brimacombe HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 62
  3 4 5 12 14 13 10 6 15 2 16 7 11 1 9 8  
Wood HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI TEN DET TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL ATL 47
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Pasquino HOU CIN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND NYJ PIT DAL NO 69
  8 6 10 15 14 4 12 2 13 9 16 3 1 5 11 7  
Mamula HOU CIN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 56
  16 15 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1  
Roberts HOU CIN NYG CAR MIA BAL ARI TEN GB TB SEA IND NYJ PIT DAL NO 62
  4 1 11 15 16 10 12 3 9 7 13 8 2 6 14 5  
Wimer HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA BAL ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND KC PHI DAL ATL 77
  10 9 8 12 16 7 6 5 4 11 3 14 2 1 15 13  
Bitonti HOU CIN NYG CAR MIA BAL ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND NYJ PHI DAL ATL 48
  11 4 12 14 15 5 8 6 13 7 9 10 2 1 16 3  
Grant HOU DEN NYG CAR MIA JAX ARI OAK GB TB SEA IND KC PIT DAL NO 52
  2 1 9 16 15 5 13 6 14 7 10 4 3 11 12 8  
Away HOU DEN WAS MIN CLE BAL ARI OAK DET LAR SF SD NYJ PIT CHI ATL  
Total Pts 112 69 0 0 0 50 205 70 8 0 0 3 10 97 0 17  
Home NE CIN NYG CAR MIA JAX BUF TEN GB TB SEA IND KC PHI DAL NO  
Total Pts 19 58 188 227 249 58 2 28 207 126 190 114 67 7 187 80  

HEAVY FAVORITES

The Giants, Carolina, Miami, Tampa Bay, Seattle, and Dallas were all picked by every staffer in the board to win this week, with the Dolphins and Panthers being the most confident picks. Hicks was the only staffer to pick the Bills, and Larkin was the only team to pick the Chargers this week, making Arizona and Indianapolis strong picks as well. Jason Wood was the only staffer to take the Lions over Green Bay. 

DUAL SUPPORT

Baltimore at Jacksonville looks like the hardest game of the week to pick.The Jaguars received a couple more picks, edging out the Ravens 58-50. KC is a strong favorite over the Jets this week, but that game received the fewest confident points with just 77 total from the entire field. The Broncos at the Bengals, Oakland at Tennessee, and Pittsburgh at Philadelphia are also games with a lower confidence totals. 

ODDS AND ENDS

The top two teams this week represent two different styles of play. Larkin always builds a competitive team, and actually won Week 1 last season as well. His approach always keeps him competitive, and you can usually find him near the top of the leaderboard every week. Andy Hicks is a swing for the fences kind of guy, picking a couple big upsets each week. He is almost always one of the lowest teams on the overall board, but when his upsets hit, he pulls out the weekly win. Both approaches are perfectly valid, since Andy usually takes home two or three weekly prizes and that's more than most of the other teams do.

Larkin's lead this early can really not be praised enough. From week to week, the difference between the top team and the #10 team is usually just a few confidence points, and when the bye weeks happen, it's even closer. It's hard to make big moves in the overall leaderboard, and it could take another five or six weeks to catch Larkin at this point. A 40 point lead is massive at this point, and if he can hold that until the bye weeks start, he's going to be on the top of the overall board for a long time. 

Good luck this weekend!