Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread) Week 3

Weekly Staff Confidence Pool (No Spread)

We are proud to bring you the return of the Footballguys.com Staff Confidence Pool Challenge. 22 Staff members will pick the winner of each NFL game, and rank each choice from most confident (16 points) to least (1 point). As a tie-breaker, the person who is closest to the total points scored on the last Monday Night game will be the winner. Winners will be announced from week to week and the best overall record will be crowned Confidence pool Champion. Picks and ranks are due on Wednesday, so any late-breaking news may not be reflected in the choices. Also please note that no point spread is taken into account with these picks – it is a straight up pick of which NFL team will win this week. See the other confidence pools for picks against the spread (ATS) or Survivor / Eliminator style.

WEEK 2 RESULTS

That's why he's one of the most respected members of the FBG staff. Maurile Tremblay was a monster last week, beating Jason Wood by 35 points and crushing the rest of the field by more than 40. Not only did he lead the field with 10 correct picks when most guys were happy to be 8-8, but Maurile also hit his top four confidence picks and only lost a single point on St. Louis when the rest of the field averaged more than 11 confidence points on the Rams. Sometimes it's good to buck the trend. 

Staffer DEN TEN TB NE ARI SF STL SD HOU ATL DET BAL MIA DAL SEA NYJ TOT
KC CLE NO BUF CHI PIT WAS CIN CAR NYG MIN OAK JAX PHI GB IND Pts
Tremblay KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG MIN BAL JAX DAL GB NYJ 95
  8 12 11 16 9 6 1 14 7 4 2 5 10 3 15 13  
Wood KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN CAR ATL MIN BAL MIA PHI GB IND 60
  1 2 16 8 11 13 12 9 7 4 3 14 15 6 5 10  
Tuccitt DEN TEN NO NE CHI PIT STL CIN CAR ATL DET BAL MIA PHI GB NYJ 54
  2 7 16 6 5 13 10 9 8 4 3 14 15 12 11 1  
Bitonti KC TEN NO NE CHI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG MIN BAL MIA PHI GB NYJ 52
  8 12 14 11 10 9 13 16 7 5 6 3 15 4 2 1  
Grant KC TEN NO NE CHI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 51
  6 5 14 4 1 16 13 12 9 3 2 11 15 7 10 8  
Miglio KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG MIN BAL MIA PHI GB IND 51
  5 3 15 11 12 10 13 7 4 2 1 16 14 8 6 9  
Garda DEN TEN NO NE ARI SF STL CIN CAR ATL DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 50
  10 11 13 9 12 8 14 7 6 5 3 15 16 2 1 4  
Hicks KC TEN NO BUF ARI PIT STL CIN HOU ATL MIN OAK MIA PHI GB IND 50
  5 7 16 6 4 8 9 10 3 2 11 1 13 15 14 12  
Larkin DEN CLE NO BUF CHI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG MIN BAL MIA PHI GB IND 50
  13 1 16 10 3 12 9 8 7 2 4 15 14 6 5 11  
Haseley KC CLE NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 49
  15 5 13 12 10 8 14 7 4 2 1 16 9 6 3 11  
Hindery KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN CAR ATL MIN BAL MIA PHI GB IND 48
  6 3 15 4 5 12 10 8 7 2 1 16 13 11 9 14  
Gray KC CLE NO BUF ARI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG MIN BAL MIA PHI GB IND 46
  8 1 16 3 9 10 14 7 6 5 2 13 15 4 11 12  
Holloway KC TEN NO BUF ARI PIT STL CIN CAR ATL MIN BAL MIA PHI GB IND 45
  4 9 16 2 8 10 12 5 7 3 1 13 14 6 11 15  
Buzzard KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG MIN BAL MIA PHI GB IND 45
  5 3 16 2 4 14 10 8 7 6 1 13 12 11 9 15  
Pasquino KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN CAR ATL DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 44
  15 2 16 6 8 14 12 3 7 5 4 9 13 10 1 11  
Feery KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN HOU NYG MIN BAL MIA DAL GB IND 43
  11 3 16 10 9 7 15 6 4 5 8 14 13 2 1 12  
Howe KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN CAR NYG DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 42
  3 11 16 5 8 6 13 12 10 9 4 15 14 2 1 7  
Wimer KC TEN NO BUF ARI PIT STL CIN CAR ATL DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 42
  1 14 12 8 7 9 10 6 13 5 4 15 16 3 2 11  
Brimacombe DEN CLE NO NE CHI PIT STL SD CAR ATL DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 40
  1 3 12 4 2 11 10 6 9 7 8 13 14 15 5 16  
Lee KC TEN NO BUF ARI PIT STL CIN HOU NYG DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 39
  9 15 16 3 7 14 4 8 1 6 2 12 13 5 10 11  
Rudnicki KC TEN NO NE ARI PIT STL CIN HOU NYG DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 33
  11 10 16 8 7 12 15 5 2 4 3 13 14 6 1 9  
Heiser KC TEN NO BUF CHI SF STL CIN CAR ATL DET BAL MIA PHI GB IND 18
  15 14 13 12 9 2 8 7 4 6 5 10 16 3 1 11  
Away DEN TEN TB NE ARI SF STL SD HOU ATL DET BAL MIA DAL SEA NYJ  
Total Pts 26 143 0 116 130 10 241 6 10 43 39 265 293 5 0 15  
Home KC CLE NO BUF CHI PIT WAS CIN CAR NYG MIN OAK JAX PHI GB IND  
Total Pts 136 10 324 44 30 214 0 174 129 53 40 1 10 142 134 209  

1753 confidence points were lost on Kansas City, Tennessee, New Orleans, St. Louis, Baltimore, Miami, Philadelphia and Indianapolis. That's an averaged of almost 80 points per staffer. To say this was a devastating week is an understatement. 

OVERALL RANKINGS

Not much of a shocker here - Tremblay finds himself at the top of the leaderboard after two weeks. Larkin falls to second 26 points behind him. Wood jumps up into 3rd with his 60 points this week when the rest of the top teams struggled to get 50. 

Staffer W1 W2 W3 W4 W5 W6 W7 W8 W9 W10 W11 W12 W13 W14 W15 W16 W17 Total
Larkin 111 50                               161
Howe 109 42                               151
Grant 106 51                               157
Haseley 101 49                               150
Tuccitt 100 54                               154
Buzzard 100 45                               145
Wood 99 60                               159
Bitonti 98 52                               150
Lee 96 39                               135
Hindery 94 48                               142
Rudnicki 93 33                               126
Garda 92 50                               142
Tremblay 92 95                               187
Holloway 90 45                               135
Gray 88 46                               134
Pasquino 87 44                               131
Wimer 86 42                               128
Miglio 85 51                               136
Hicks 82 50                               132
Feery 81 43                               124
Brimacombe 81 40                               121
Heiser 72 18                               90

Bear had just 4 correct picks this week, and only 18 total confidence points on them. He finds himself more than 30 points behind the rest of the board. 

THIS WEEK'S PICKS

Here are the picks for this week.

Staffer WAS CIN SD OAK ATL TB PHI PIT NO IND JAX SF CHI BUF DEN KC MNF
NYG BAL MIN CLE DAL HOU NYJ STL CAR TEN NE ARI SEA MIA DET GB TOT
Rudnicki NYG CIN SD CLE ATL HOU PHI PIT CAR IND NE ARI SEA BUF DEN GB 46
  12 5 2 4 7 11 1 9 10 8 16 14 15 3 6 13  
Miglio NYG BAL MIN CLE ATL HOU PHI PIT CAR IND NE ARI SEA MIA DEN GB 51
  5 3 4 11 10 13 2 8 6 9 16 7 15 1 14 12  
Garda NYG CIN MIN OAK ATL HOU NYJ STL CAR IND NE ARI SEA MIA DEN GB 40
  11 14 12 8 7 6 10 5 3 2 15 4 16 1 13 9  
Hicks NYG CIN MIN OAK DAL HOU PHI PIT CAR IND NE ARI SEA BUF DEN GB 41
  7 12 13 8 1 9 2 3 4 10 5 11 14 6 15 16  
Heiser WAS CIN SD CLE ATL HOU PHI PIT NO TEN NE ARI SEA BUF DEN GB 48
  12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 16 2 15 1 14 13  
Feery NYG CIN SD OAK DAL TB NYJ PIT CAR IND NE ARI SEA BUF DEN GB 45
  1 10 3 6 7 4 8 5 12 13 16 15 14 9 11 2  
Gray NYG CIN MIN CLE ATL HOU NYJ PIT CAR IND NE ARI SEA MIA DEN GB 51
  7 2 5 4 6 8 3 10 12 9 16 14 15 1 11 13  
Hindery WAS CIN MIN CLE ATL HOU PHI STL CAR IND NE ARI SEA MIA DEN GB 43
  5 4 6 8 3 13 2 1 9 12 16 11 15 7 10 14  
Tuccitto NYG CIN MIN CLE DAL HOU NYJ PIT CAR IND NE ARI SEA BUF DEN GB 49
  5 4 2 8 1 9 10 15 7 6 14 11 16 12 3 13  
Larkin NYG BAL MIN CLE ATL HOU NYJ PIT CAR IND NE ARI SEA MIA DEN GB 48
  4 3 6 7 9 2 5 11 12 10 16 14 15 1 8 13  
Brimacombe NYG BAL MIN CLE ATL HOU PHI PIT CAR IND NE ARI SEA MIA DEN GB 52
  12 4 3 5 2 6 8 7 9 11 16 13 15 10 1 14  
Wood WAS BAL MIN OAK ATL HOU PHI PIT CAR IND NE ARI SEA MIA DEN GB 49
  2 5 6 3 7 8 1 11 10 12 16 9 15 4 13 14  
Haseley NYG BAL MIN CLE DAL HOU PHI PIT CAR IND NE ARI SEA BUF DEN GB 50
  6 7 4 9 3 13 1 5 12 10 16 11 15 2 8 14  
Pasquino NYG BAL MIN OAK ATL HOU PHI PIT NO IND NE ARI SEA MIA DEN GB 49
  1 4 8 6 2 13 12 11 7 9 16 14 15 3 5 10  
Lee NYG BAL SD CLE DAL HOU NYJ PIT CAR IND NE ARI SEA MIA DEN GB 50
  1 4 8 6 2 13 12 11 7 9 16 14 15 3 5 10  
Howe NYG CIN MIN OAK DAL HOU NYJ STL CAR TEN NE ARI SEA BUF DEN GB 48
  3 4 13 5 7 11 10 6 12 1 16 14 15 2 9 8  
Wimer NYG CIN MIN CLE DAL TB NYJ PIT CAR IND NE ARI SEA MIA DEN GB 41
  10 9 8 12 7 6 13 5 11 4 16 15 14 3 2 1  
Bitonti WAS CIN MIN OAK ATL TB NYJ PIT CAR IND NE ARI SEA BUF DEN GB 46
  2 1 9 3 15 4 5 6 7 8 16 14 13 12 11 10  
Tremblay WAS CIN MIN CLE DAL HOU NYJ PIT CAR TEN NE ARI SEA BUF DEN GB 41
  6 4 9 12 11 5 13 10 16 14 1 15 2 8 3 7  
Holloway NYG BAL MIN OAK ATL HOU NYJ PIT CAR IND NE ARI SEA MIA DEN GB 52
  4 3 5 1 6 8 7 10 12 11 16 13 14 2 9 15  
Buzzard NYG BAL MIN CLE ATL HOU NYJ PIT CAR IND NE ARI SEA MIA DEN GB 45
  12 5 3 7 2 10 4 1 8 9 15 13 16 6 11 14  
Grant NYG BAL MIN CLE DAL HOU NYJ PIT CAR IND NE ARI SEA BUF DEN GB 51
  11 3 4 8 1 12 7 6 10 5 16 14 15 2 9 13  
Away WAS CIN SD OAK ATL TB PHI PIT NO IND JAX SF CHI BUF DEN KC  
Total Pts 27 80 23 40 84 14 35 149 11 167 0 0 0 57 191 0  
Home NYG BAL MIN CLE DAL HOU NYJ STL CAR TEN NE ARI SEA MIA DET GB  
Total Pts 112 41 120 110 40 177 107 12 189 18 322 262 314 42 0 248  

HEAVY FAVORITES

Vegas predicts that the two Super Bowl teams - New England and Seattle should win their games by two touchdowns or more. It's no surprise that those two teams were both picked by everyone this week. The Packers, Cardinals and Broncos were also unaminous selections by the staff. Carolina, Pittsburgh and Houston were all heavy favorites this week. 

DUAL SUPPORT

With so many big upsets last week, there is plenty of uncertainty surrounding several teams this week. The division battle between Miami and Buffalo was the closest match this week, with less than 100 total confidence points on the match, and the Bills receiving just 15 more confidence points. The Bengals and the Ravens was a relatively close matchup this week as well. Even the Cowboys 40 confidence points despite playing the Falcons without Tony Romo or Dez Bryant. Tremblay even wagered 11 confidence points on the Cowboys this week.  

ODDS AND ENDS

I checked last season to see if we had a comparable week to the disaster that happened this week. The closest that I could find was Week 4 of 2014 where the top score was just 65 total points. However, that week we had six NFL teams on a bye. We had a similar week in 2013, but that also had only 13 games. This week was the worst that we've had in the last three years. 

Next week the NFL teams will start to have bye weeks. This will reduce the total possible points for each week and will make it much harder for teams to make big moves from week to week. Tremblay is out to an impressive lead already and if he continues to hold the top spot by this wide margin after this week, It's going to be hard to catch him for quite some time. 

STAFF COMMENTS

Each week, we invite the FBG staff to provide comments on any of their picks. Here are this week's comments:

Maurile Tremblay

New England's offense is far better than Jacksonville's, but Jacksonville's defense is far better than New England's. Overall, I see this as a close game, though I realize I'm going against the grain on this.

Will Grant

Tossing a point on the Cowboys may look like I'm playing favorites, but the Falcons could very easily be 0-2. Even more telling, when the Cowboys lost Romo last week against the Eagles, they didn't lay down and die, but stayed aggressive and really pulled out a solid win. The game script says that without Romo and Bryant on the road, the Cowboys will probably lose. I'm taking a shot that the Cowboys turtle up, and hand the Falcons their first loss against a home crowd. 

Good luck this weekend!