Player Spotlight: Adrian Peterson

Photo: Kirthmon F. Dozier, USA Today Sports

Let’s get started by addressing the elephant in the room: some of you will never have Adrian Peterson on your teams again, by choice. You may be horrified by what he did to his son, irritated by his refusal for so long to acknowledge what he did or angered that he came back and immediately demanded more money. All of those things are legitimate reasons to pass on him and if you aren’t one of those people, you will have someone in your leagues who will be.

This could result in what might be an immediate advantage to those who do want Peterson, as it could drop him slightly in drafts. Peterson is a high first round pick this year but there are early drafts that have him dropping to the second half of that first round – a huge gift for any owner from No. 6 to No. 12.

Here’s why you shouldn’t pass on Peterson aside from moral issues.

FEWER WORRIES THAN YOU THINK

First of all, you can stop worrying about him holding out for more money. Peterson starred into the abyss that is the Vikings’ front office, asked for more money and blinked. He knows the only way to get more money is to play and play well.

Along with the monetary incentive, Peterson is back to having a chip on his shoulder. Remember when he blew his knee out in late 2011 and we all thought he was rushing back to play in 2012? And then he took that doubt, balled it up and put it on his shoulder, carrying it to a career best 2,097 yards with a 6 yards per carry average?

Now he’s returning to the NFL spotlight after a season where he was subjected to tremendous amounts of vitriol and doubt. He feels disrespected, the sort of thing which produces some of Peterson’s best work. This is a prime year to have him, even if he’s hitting his thirties.

Turning 30 isn’t always the end of the world for a back. Frank Gore is 32 and coming off some of his most productive years and while Gore is an outlier, so is Peterson. Given his work-ethic and dedication, you can expect this year to be as productive for Peterson as the past few years have been.

LOOK, A REAL QUARTERBACK!

Peterson will also benefit from a quarterback who is actually a legitimate threat to throw the ball and do so effectively. Teddy Bridgewater still has some rough edges, but he was very effective for the most part last season and he and Peterson should be able to have a mutually advantageous relationship.

On the one hand, Peterson will be able to give Bridgewater a solid ground threat which, while we like Jerrick McKinnon and Matt Asiata, was only sort of there last season. Even on their best days, those two are nowhere near as dangerous as Peterson, who will pull players into the box and away from the receivers.

On the other hand, Peterson now gets a quarterback who should be able to keep teams from stacking the box. This is an exciting thing, because we’ve seen what Peterson could do even when he had a mannequin under center and defenses could put everyone including the mascot in the tackle box. Now we have a situation where Peterson might see only seven or possibly six guys stacked in front of him? The mind boggles at how he can take advantage of that.

THE NORV EFFECT

He’s also got an offensive coordinator in Norv Turner who likes to run the ball. Last season he had Asiata and McKinnon looking like All-Stars and while both are talented enough, Turner took them to another level.

While the Vikings ran the ball in part to protect Bridgewater, they also ran the ball because when you’re Norv Turner, that’s just something you do. Now that he has Peterson in house, they will likely run as much and more effectively. There’s also a chance that the team feels they may need to move on from Peterson over the next year or two, and could take advantage of him while they have him by running him into the ground.

My projections (below) could actually be low in terms of carries if they decide to wrest whatever they can before they need to get rid of him.

Positives

• A year of rest due to suspension will help Peterson stave off the impact of time. Coupled with his workouts, he should be in fantastic shape all season.
• Improved play at quarterback in the form of Teddy Bridgewater will keep defenses honest, and make a guy who was effective against ten in the box even more productive with less defenders.
• Continued intense off-season training will allow Peterson to enter the season as effective as ever.
• Norv Turner loves to run the ball, Peterson is good at it – this seems like the best marriage ever.

Negatives

• Quarterback is still unproven: I love Bridgewater, but he needs to keep progressing. Until he proves he is a big threat, Peterson will always get attention. If Bridgewater chokes, Peterson will see the stacked fronts we’ve come to hate.
• Peterson has hit 30 and production could run off a cliff, much like many players in the past. He has had a lot of wear on those tires and when a back’s production implodes, it happens suddenly and unexpectedly.
• Peterson is still dissatisfied with his contract and this could become an issue again in camp or during the season, especially if the team struggles. Peterson knows he has only so much shelf-life left and he wants one more big payday. That could be an issue.
• Off-field issues could make it hard for Peterson to play. So far things have been safe in the Minnesota bubble but if Peterson gets off to a rough start – and any time he’s on the road – he will hear it from fans. He could start hearing it from media as well. Peterson hurt his child and we may not have seen all the fallout from that.

Final Thoughts

Ultimately if you have no moral issue with having Peterson on your roster, nothing should prevent you from grabbing him anywhere in the first round. He continues to put up great numbers (topping 1,200 yards six out of eight years, the two misses because of suspension and injury), is a dedicated athlete on and off the field and walks back into a good situation with the Vikings. There’s no reason NFL or production-wise to keep him off your team.

Projections

Other viewpoints

Eddie Brown of the San Diego Union-Tribune agrees that age is just a number for Adrian Peterson. Brown put together five backs who had their best season at or over the age of 30.

Ditto CBS’ Dave Richard, who says that if anyone can buck the ‘over 30 trend’ it’s Peterson.

Normally, a 30-year old back with over 2,000 career carries who didn't play last season will raise some red flags.

But unless Peterson spent his time off sitting on his couch eating Cheetos and watching Newhart reruns, he's probably in good shape. It might even be a good thing that he was forced out in 2014 instead of putting another 250 to 300 carries on his body. It's not like he tore a ligament or broke something. At this point, consider the time off a good thing.

ESPN’s Field Yates is also bullish on Peterson, and has been ever since he worked in the Kansas City Chief’s scouting department in 2009. For Yate’s Peterson is not your typical back and he had this to say about whether he’ll lose a step this season or even in the next few years:

So despite the fact that Peterson is now 30 and coming off a year in which he played just one game, he'd be the running back I'd choose to build an offense around over the next three seasons. That supreme physical dominance was on display in Peterson's return to OTAs this past week, and it is why the Vikings have been intent on keeping him and the three years and $40 million-plus left on his deal.