A month into the season, injuries continue piling up, bye weeks are here, and those unexpected contributors are now a reality. This week, we examine a pair of new starting quarterbacks; discuss Adrian Peterson's declaration that his demise was greatly exaggerated; play a game of 2+2 using unexpected first-half fantasy stars; and, share some alternate takes to current football narratives.
Let's roll...
Adrian Peterson
Matt Waldman: Adrian Peterson showed up in a big way against the Buccaneers. Let's frame our discussion on the Cardinals' new running back around these two topics:
- What kind of production as a fantasy RB do you expect moving forward?
- Which two players in the passing game benefit most from Peterson's presence, and how much is the improvement in production, if any?
Alternate Takes
Waldman: Every week, I read football analysis that, after watching the games, I disagree with. A good example is that Adrian Peterson was done. Share your analysis of a player, unit, or team that runs counter to the popular analysis that you've seen during the past two weeks. Include fantasy implications for your take.
Wimer: I think that the Raiders' offense is in serious trouble. After last week's one-point loss, I heard commentators saying that Oakland is missing on the "little things" and needs "fine tuning" for winning football. I don't see that. I see an offensive line that is doing a terrible job pass-blocking.
I see a No. 1-A wide receiver, Amari Cooper, who has lost his confidence and doesn't make plays even when spoon-fed the football (six targets for 5/28/0 receiving last week is a terrible performance for someone who is supposedly an elite receiver).
I expect continued mediocre-to-sub-par performances for the Raiders going forward. Except for Michael Crabtree, who is the one legitimate receiving threat here as things stand, I am avoiding starting Raiders' receivers wherever possible.
Mamula: There is no denying that Deshaun Watson has arrived as a fantasy force at the quarterback position. However, take a look at the quality of the defenses (Cleveland, Kansas City, Tennessee, New England) that he has faced over the past month. All four of these defenses rank in the bottom-third with pass defense. Looking ahead to the fantasy playoffs, the Texans travel to Jacksonville Week 15 and play Pittsburgh Week 16. Both of these defenses are ranked in the top-four in pass defense and represent a significant challenge. If you have another viable option at quarterback, now is the time to sell high on Watson. His value will never be higher.
Waldman: Regardless of whether your take on Watson plays out, John, I love this thought despite the fact that I like Watson. The NFL tends to play out in four, four-week quarters during the season and the collection of scouting intel has a similar cycle. Watson has done a fantastic job executing the game plan and creating when defenses foil the original plan. However, Watson still has the same strengths and weaknesses he showed at Clemson and there will likely be defenses that are more equipped to exploit Watson's weaknesses in the coming weeks.
Two of these weaknesses is his lack of arm velocity and adjusting to hybrid coverage in the middle of the field. The arm velocity issue from the NFL Combine has been overrated in the sense that analysts concluded Watson could not be a capable NFL quarterback without it. However, it is an important characteristic of Watson's game and like any other strength or weakness of a prospect has to be matched well with his new offense.
Watson can throw from distance but he cannot drive the ball as well as many starting quarterbacks. It means he's best matched with receivers who excel on routes where they earn separation and run under the target and/or win above the rim in contested situations. Most of Watson's deep routes are passes where he can place a lot of air under the football.
If opposing defenses can force Watson to deliver more deep comebacks, deep outs, skinny posts, and deep dig routes that require velocity, we're going to see worse results. Watson's efforts on some of these routes for the past 4-5 weeks have already shown that in a limited sample size.
The adjustments to hybrid coverage in the middle of the field is something most quarterbacks must deal with. Hybrid coverage, for those of you who may not have heard that term, is a common category for a variety of NFL coverages where the defense plays man-to-man in one region of the field while playing zone in another. Quarterbacks often read a tell on one side of the field that indicates man-to-man and presumes the entire field is in man-to-man only to discover he's throwing into a zone. Some college teams play versions of hybrid coverage, but it's not nearly as common as it is in the pros.
Watson's greatest issues with accuracy at Clemson were middle of the field timing routes where he was often a step or two behind his receivers when he was inaccurate. He also had frequent issues with safeties or defensive linemen dropping into coverage zones. These are common for most rookie quarterbacks.
Even so, I expect we'll see at least 2-4 teams capable of keeping Watson in the pocket, getting pressure fast, and forcing Watson into throws that aren't in his wheelhouse. It won't mean that Watson isn't cut out for the NFL if he struggles, it means teams will have adjusted to him and the next step will be for Watson to prove he can address some of the obstacles and his team can hide the ones that he cannot.
Keep in mind, Carson Wentz has issues throwing the deep ball in a timing offense. His often too far or too short of target and his timing routes in the intermediate range of the field were often too high or wide of target last year. Why? He could not set up or maintain consistent and precise footwork in the drop-back game that is the basis for accurate throws beyond certain distances.
Did Wentz improve? We still don't really know this answer when looking at the film because the Eagles have cut back on his drops from center and instituted an offense reliant more on shotgun where Wentz and take one hop into a position where he's set up to release the ball quickly. This eliminates the need for as many drops where his footwork setups were (and in limited viewings this year, still have been) the problem.
Wentz can throw accurately from these quick pivot/hop setup stances within the range of 20-30 yards as long as it's not an opposite-hash target. Where his accuracy dwindles has also been addressed with receivers who are better at winning the ball from defenders or running under targets that lead them with their backs to the line of scrimmage.
Does this mean Wentz is a bad quarterback? Of course not! Otherwise, Tom Brady should be judged as a bad quarterback because he can't scramble or deliver consistently accurate throws when forced to throw on the move. The Patriots can hide his weaknesses and showcase his strengths. The Eagles and Texans are doing the same with their quarterbacks.
We'll see if Watson and his team can continue to do so against tougher competition. My thought is in line with John's: I'm skeptical that the Texans are good enough to consistently do so against a higher tier of defensive competition that's ahead on the schedule.
Simpkins: I’ve been seeing some suggestions (especially in the dynasty space) that Amari Cooper is the next Braylon Edwards. I don’t think those making that claim understand the reasons that Braylon Edwards failed in the NFL. Edwards failed because of off-the-field incidents, poor work ethic, and maturity problems—not his dropped passes.
Amari Cooper has had some problems with drops, as Edwards did, but drops are given too much weight. Drops are not a death knell to a player’s value, as Matt Harmon so eloquently documented here. I don’t think Cooper has logged two thousand-yard seasons by accident. He’s proven to be a very polished route runner and technician, things that don’t suddenly vanish from a player’s repertoire.
The more likely explanations for his struggles are that Cooper is playing dinged up (he has a nagging knee problem) and his quarterback has also been struggling to be as impactful after suffering a transverse process back fracture. If both can get healthier as the season wears on, I think we’ll see Cooper rebound to post the wide receiver one numbers we expected when we took him early in our fantasy drafts.
2+2
Waldman: I will list players with great first-half fantasy production and you have two tasks:
- Select two players from the list who you think have the best shot of sustaining this surprising start and explain why they've succeeded thus far.
- Select two players who you'd sell high, why you would, and what you'd expect in return for him. Give me a specific player or range of fantasy value at the positions that you'd want in return for each player.
- Cameron Brate
- Carson Wentz
- Chris Thompson
- Devin Funchess
- Duke Johnson Jr
- Evan Engram
- Jerick McKinnon
- LeGarrette Blount
- Nelson Agholor
Chris Thompson has been Washington’s most dynamic offensive player and should continue to be heavily involved in the passing game.
Jerick McKinnon has been outstanding, but I would sell him quickly for a top wide receiver. He has no history of sustained success with heavy usage and he will likely wear down sooner rather than later.
Blount is another I would trade, before Smallwood recovers and would again likely seek a similar level wide receiver, possibly an underperformer so far this year like Amari Cooper.
Targets/Rec
Ertz 53/34
Kelce 44/33
Engram 41/24
Gronkowski 40/26
Brate 30/21
His four touchdowns are the main reason why his value is so high. Take away half of those and he's not in the conversation.
Haseley: Chris Thompson is a keeper. Washington continues to look to Thompson as a receiving threat and he has also shown the ability to run the ball well. He appears to be a fixture in the offense, which means his fantasy value should continue to stay high. The fact that no other back on the team has increased their level of play is a good sign that Thompson will continue to see a high number of snaps and involvement going forward.
Haseley: Evan Engram is also a keeper. The injuries in the Giants receiving corps have opened the door for Evan Engram to thrive. Given the current state of the Giants, Engram could find himself being one of the team's top 2 targeted receivers going forward. As a result, his stock should rise and could land him in the Top 6 at season's end.
In terms of selling, this was a tough list to pick from, but in the end, I would pick Thompson and Devin Funchess. Thompson has proven to be highly game-script dependent. Like most of us, I like consistent options that give me some predictability in terms of week-to-week output. I would love to deal Thompson for Jerick McKinnon or someone who I think will get better as their situation improves, such as DeMarco Murray.
young guns
- Which one do you prefer as a fantasy option and why?
- For each team, which supporting cast member benefits most from the change and does it change their current value?
- For each team, which supporting cast member is hurt the most and how much in fantasy terms?
Haseley: The bridge to Aaron Rodgers is burned until he returns. There is no possibility that Rodgers will play in the coming weeks. It's Hundley's job to keep unless he performs so badly, Green Bay will be forced to turn to option C. You can't say the same for C.J. Beathard. There's always the possibility of Brian Hoyer returning, especially if Kyle Shanahan has a short leash on poor performance
Hundley has more experience than Beathard and he had the pleasure of watching Aaron Rodgers play effectively for two years. The experience factor is in his favor, which could be the difference between committing a turnover or not.
The Packers have a more stable set of receivers who have more experience. I feel more confident in Jordy Nelson, Davante Adams, Randall Cobb and Martellus Bennett to come up big when needed than the 49ers crew of Pierre Garcon, Marquise Goodwin, Trent Taylor and George Kittle.
Both are going to be decent streaming options from week to week. I actually like Beathard against Dallas slightly more than Hundley this week vs New Orleans. The Dallas defense can be passed on, especially if their defensive front is held in check. Going forward I don't see either being an every week starter, but if I had to choose one, I'd side with Hundley.
Wimer: Hundley is the guy I prefer. He has been coached by Mike McCarthy for three years and has looked solid in his preseason opportunities. As Haseley mentioned above, the starting job is definitely Hundley's for the foreseeable future as Rodgers' collar-bone injury is not something that heals quickly. Beathard could be swapped out for Hoyer after a few quarters of bad play, in my estimation.
I imagine this hurts their running backs the most. Defenses will be more willing to stack the box and dare Hundley to pass, which is the very opposite of what these runners have faced with Aaron Rodgers quarterbacking.Whether Ty Montgomery, Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, I think they go from being potential low-end running back ones to flex options at best.
For San Francisco, I really don’t see much downside for anyone. Hoyer was holding this offense down and we’ve seen that bringing Beathard in helped to invigorate the unit, almost to the point that they were able to upset Washington. Beathard will make his fair share of mistakes, as he did this past Sunday. Yet, I also think he provides some dimensions that Hoyer lacks, namely the ability to throw on the run and off-schedule playmaking ability.
