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Daily Fantasy Football is back for 2016. No worry about bye weeks or injured players like in season-long formats. FanDuel offers a variety of cash and tournament contests consisting of a single week of matchups. Projecting player ownership to build lineups is an integral strategy to long-term success. Here are the key players for Week 7:
THE CHALK PLAYS
Andy Dalton (vs CLE), $8,100: Dalton has yet to have a breakout performance in 2016, however, his yardage has been consistently solid with 5-of-6 games with more than 250 yards. The Browns are an optimal matchup for opposing quarterbacks (16 touchdowns) and No.2 in fantasy points allowed. The Browns struggle to create pressure (nine sacks) and Tyler Eifert is slated to be back for the Bengals receiving corps.
Alex Smith (vs NO), $7,200: The Saints struggle to stop any passing game. Their 'best' effort was limiting Matt Ryan to 240-2-0 back in Week 3. Alex Smith's reduction in rushing production thus far in 2016 is concerning, but this week marks Kansas City's second straight optimal pass matchup. Smith was a hyper-efficient 19-for-22 last week against Oakland, averaging more than 10 yards per attempt. Look for another high-level day for Smith against an equally struggling New Orleans defense.
Spencer Ware (vs NO), $7,000: Jamaal Charles had a mid-week setback with his ACL-recovering knee. Ware's stable workload projects better and better as Charles is unlikely to impede on Ware's volume even if active. The Saints have allowed an NFL-high 11 rushing touchdowns this season, including three multiple-score games to backs over their last three games.
DeMarco Murray (vs IND), $8,700: Murray is coming off his worst game of the season (21-65-1 with no receptions), but gets another cherry matchup in Week 7. The Colts are giving up a hearty 4.8 yards-per-carry and are a bottom-4 rush defense in ProFootballReference.com's Expected Points metric. Indianapolis has been shredded the past two weeks as Lamar Miller and Jordan Howard have each surpassed 150 total yards. Outside of David Johnson, Murray is the best bet for 20+ touches and 125 total yards this week.
David Johnson (vs SEA), $8,500: Johnson is the engine on a struggling Arizona offense. With Ezekiel Elliott out, Johnson represents the best bet to hit 100 yards and the end zone of the running back position. Johnson's 'worst' game of the season came in Week 3 when he had 111 total yards and three receptions on 22 total touches.
Jacquizz Rodgers (at SF), $5,600: Doug Martin's setback this week has scratched him from Week 7 for the Buccaneers. As a result, Rodgers is up with another spot start. Tampa Bay rode Rodgers last week to 30+ touches. The floor is high against a 49ers team unlikely to run away from Tampa Bay on the scoreboard. Rodgers' sub-6k salary opens up lineups for an additional top player at another position.
Mike Wallace (at NYJ), $6,900: Steve Smith has yet to practice (through Thursday) and unlikely to play. The Jets are one of the premiere matchups for opposing passing games, on par with the Saints of 2015. Wallace has been a high-floor option this season with at least six targets in every game and his touchdown-less streak is up to 18 receptions. Wallace is a sturdy bet for a touchdown and at least five receptions in Week 7.
A.J. Green (vs CLE), $8,500: In a week where many of the top receivers are on bye or have a tough matchup, Green draws the Browns who are a bottom-5 unit by ProFootballReference, allowing nearly three passing touchdowns per game this season. Green is a big touchdown regression candidate with just two scores on 42 receptions thus far (5% rate), while his career touchdown rate is nearly 11%.
Vernon Davis (at DET), $4,500: Jordan Reed is OUT for Week 7 with his concussion. Reed makes for a quality play against the Lions, who have allowed an NFL-high seven touchdowns to tight ends and comes with a minimum-salary price.
Mike Nugent (vs CLE), $4,600, Cairo Santos ($4,800): Both are in the top-3 of Vegas team totals and priced less than the top options of the week.
Bengals (vs CLE), $5,100, Ravens (at NYJ), $4,800: Second to only the Colts, the Browns have allowed the most sacks in the NFL (19) and are a stunted offense. The Bengals are strong favorites by Vegas with at least an average pass rush. Cincinnati is one of the better run-stopping units (No.7 by ProFootballReference). Turning the Browns into long-yardage situations raises the Bengals' already high floor.
THE SNEAKY PLAYS
Kirk Cousins (at DET), $7,300: The Lions are pacing the 2015 Saints historically horrific pass defense through six games, allowing an NFL-high 17 touchdowns to just three interceptions and 73.7% completion rate. Every opposing quarterback had logged multiple touchdowns and in 4-of-6 games their opponent had hit 300 yards or three touchdown thresholds. Monitor DeSean Jackson and Jordan Reed's status heading into the weekend as both being active would provide even more clarity for Cousins being an auto-play in Week 7.
Mike Davis (vs TB), $4,500: Carlos Hyde is declared out for Week 7, an optimistic matchup for the 49ers run game. Davis has surged past veteran Shaun Draughn for snaps in recent weeks and projects and the leading rusher for the 49ers in Hyde's absence. Tampa Bay has not allowed much to backs through the air (18 receptions, second-lowest in the league), but Draughn is likely hindered with more passing down snaps. At minimum salary, Davis is a volume play where 2x cash game value and 3x tournament value is well within reach with a goal line score or the 49ers seeing a positive game script.
Tevin Coleman (vs SD), $6,200: The Chargers are decent against the run (No.21 in the NFL by ProFootballReference), but generous through the air to opposing backs with an NFL-high 54-416-2 allowed. In the highest Vegas total of the week, Coleman is the big-play moveable chess piece to take advantage. Spencer Ware, Jalen Richard, and Mark Ingram all logged quality receiving-centric performances.
Pierre Garcon (at DET), $6,100: Detroit is a top matchup for receivers, allowing an NFL-high 17 touchdowns through the air and unreal 73.7% completion rate. DeSean Jackson is also in consideration and looks like a go this week. Both are strong plays with Jordan Reed OUT in Week 7. Garcon is a prime candidate for strong volume. He saw 11 targets last week with Jordan Reed out last week.
Adam Humphries (at SF), $4,900: Vincent Jackson's season is over, now on the injured reserve. Like a year ago, Tampa Bay has a gaping hole opposite Mike Evans at receiver .Cameron Brate and Adam Humphries are the most consistent options to pick up the slack. Humphries is the Mike Davis of the wide receiver position for Week 7 - a minimal salary for at least a moderate stream of volume. The 49ers have allowed 10 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers (No.2 in the NFL).
Hunter Henry (at ATL), $5,800: The Falcons-Chargers game is by far the projected shootout of the week. Henry, regardless of Antonio Gates' status in recent weeks, has been an auto-start with 19 targets over the past three weeks and at least 60 yards per game. Atlanta is a top-3 matchup for tight ends, including 75 yards or more allowed to Jimmy Graham, Coby Fleener, and Greg Olsen over the past month.
Matt Prater (vs WAS), $4,600: Strong-legged kickers in a dome with a high over/under fit as tournament plays when minimally priced. Prater qualifies this week. Since the start of 2015, only Adam Vinatieri has more made field goals of 50+ yards than Matt Prater's seven successful kicks. Prater also has a 59-yarder over that span, third-longest in the NFL. Prater is the perfect high-upside play for Week 7.
Titans (vs IND), $4,600: The Colts are a sack factory for opposing defenses. With 23 sacks allowed in six games, the Colts are lapping the field in pressure allowed. The turnovers have not followed (yet) with just six, but pressure leading to turnovers as the sample size grows is a long-standing NFL formula. Every team the Colts have faced has logged multiple sacks, including 14 over the past three games. At 18 sacks themselves, the Titans are one of the best pass-rushing units in the NFL. This matchup has 5+ sack potential for Tennessee as Indianapolis comes to town.
