Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 9-19-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 15 (30 teams)
Air Force at Michigan State
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Michigan State -26
O/U: 59
Air Force
Team Expected Points: 16.5
The Michigan State defense has given up a few more points than we had expected of them this year, but they still make for a very tough opponent. Air Force runs a one dimensional offense with running back DJ Johnson at the helm and their starting quarterback Nate Romine now lost for the season. Johnson has touchdown upside and could make for a decent tournament play at only 4,800, but outside of him, we are avoiding the Air Force offense.
Michigan State
Team Expected Points: 42.5
QB – Connor Cook – 7,600
Analysis: If Connor Cook were to ever be set up for a break out performance, last week was his chance against the high-powered Oregon offense. He was effective in leading Michigan State to victory, but his fantasy stats were less than impressive as he only threw for 192 yards and 2 touchdowns on the day. The matchup this week against Air Force is not one that screams upside for a game-managing passer such as Cook, as we expect this to be a slow tempo game with plenty of rushing on both sides of the ball.
Recommendation: With Michigan State nearly a 4-touchdown favorite, we do not expect Cook to need much through the air in this game. At 7,600, there are better options at quarterback this week.
Illinois at North Carolina
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: North Carolina -9.5
O/U: 64
Illinois
Team Expected Points: 27.25
RB – Josh Ferguson – 7,100
Analysis: Senior Josh Ferguson did not look great at all last week, averaging only 3.0 yards per carry on 12 attempts, with 10 of those 39 yards coming from a single run. North Carolina is a step up in defensive quality this week, but they are still certainly susceptible to big plays. With Ferguson’s talent and usage in the passing game, his price of 7,100 seems slightly too low this week.
Recommendation: Ferguson represents a good value in all formats this week due to his upside from usage in the passing game. He represents a decent value in all formats.
North Carolina
Team Expected Points: 36.75
QB – Marquise Williams – 9,200
Analysis: Williams is an explosive talent with the ability to put up points through the air and on the ground. This Illinois defense has not been tested yet this season, but they actually had a decent pass defense last year ranked 45th in passing yards per game with plenty of starters returning. With that said, the Illinois rushing defense ranked 123rd in rushing yards per game allowing almost 250 per game. If Williams cannot find what he wants through the air, we expect for him to get it done with his legs on Saturday.
Recommendation: While we think Williams has a good game, he should not be the highest priced quarterback on the board. We like some cheaper options with just as much if not more upside than Williams this week.
RB – Elijah Hood – 7,000
Analysis: Elijah Hood is the clear RB1 for North Carolina, with no other player coming within 1/3 of his workload last week and backup TJ Logan only accounting for 11 total caries on the year to Hood’s 28. Hood averaged only 3.5 yards per carry last week, but he racked up his first 2 touchdowns on the year. The only issue is that even though Hood is the feature back, he still is not seeing the 20+ carries we’d look for.
Recommendation: Hood does have a good matchup against a weak Illinois rushing defense, but we think his price is too high considering what we have projected for him this week.
Quinshad Davis – 7,100, WR – Ryan Switzer – 5,500, Mack Hollins – 5,200, Bug Howard – 4,500,
Analysis: The Tar Heel receiving core is relatively crowded, with their 3 starters Howard, Switzer, and Davis each having 8, 9, and 8 receptions respectively. Mack Hollins is a backup who receives a good amount of snaps on the field as well.
Recommendation: You could take a flyer on any of these guys in a tournament due to their potential for a big game in this high-tempo offense, but our projections have Bug on top in terms of value due to his minimum salary. Do not select any of these guys in cash games, as they are far from safe plays.
Nevada at Texas A&M
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Texas A&M -34
O/U: 65
Nevada
Team Expected Points: 15.5
We, along with Vegas, expect Nevada to really struggle in this game. Avoid the Nevada offense this week, and don’t tell Brian Polian we said that—we’d rather avoid his wrath after last weekend.
Texas A& M
Team Expected Points: 49.5
QB – Kyle Allen – 8,600
Analysis: Kyle Allen is an explosive passer with the ability to go off at any moment with all of the weapons around him. He was not really needed much last week, only attempting 13 passes. However he looked great in the half of football played, completing 10 of those 13 attempts for 126 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 0 interceptions. Vegas thinks this week could be a similar game with A&M running away with it as a 34 point favorite, but Allen should see more playing time in this last game prior to conference play.
Recommendation: Allen is priced down at 8,600 since he does represent a risk due to lost playing time—however we think he plays into the second half here and has 300+ passing yard upside. Allen would represent a favorable tournament option when stacked with one of his potent wide receivers this week.
Josh Reynolds – 7,300, Speedy Noil – 6,500, WR – Christian Kirk – 6,300, Ricky Seals-Jones – 5,200
Analysis: The Aggies are loaded with wide receiving talent this season. Freshman Christian Kirk surprisingly leads the team with 10 receptions and 149 yards due to his big game in week 1, but he took a step back with a mediocre performance in week 2. Josh Reynolds is a deep play threat who can bust a long touchdown catch at any point. Ricky Seals-Jones is the cheapest option here, and he actually has the 2nd most receptions on the team at 9 this season.
Recommendation: Christian Kirk is a freshman who has shown inconsistency thus far this year, so at 6,300 he would be a GPP play only. Reynolds, Noil, and Seals-Jones are all in play for tournaments as well, with Ricky Seals-Jones projecting out as the best value at only 5,200.
Tulsa at Oklahoma
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma -30
O/U: 72
Tulsa
Team Expected Points: 24.75
Tulsa is in a tough spot this week against an Oklahoma team that has historically dominated them. Tulsa certainly has not had a problem putting up points thus far this season with quarterback Dane Evans having thrown for nearly 750 yards this season. The Golden Hurricane offense has shown that it can produce, but we do not like them as a whole this week against the 10th ranked Oklahoma defense. We actually will be fading Tulsa even in tournaments, as the average player will still play some of these guys due to the recent gaudy numbers, leading to a higher ownership percentage than warranted.
Oklahoma
Team Expected Points: 50.75
QB – Baker Mayfield– 9,000
Analysis: Baker Mayfield is in a good spot this week against a very bad Tulsa defense. We expect Oklahoma to put up some serious points in this matchup with an O/U of 72. Mayfield struggled in the first 3 quarters against Tennessee last week, but he really turned it on when it mattered, passing for 103 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 1 touchdown run all in the 4th quarter and overtime. Mayfield played well into the second half in their blowout win against Akron in week 1, so we think Bob Stoops may let him roll to build his form in preparation for the meat of the schedule.
Recommendation: Mayfield is expensive at 9,000, but he is leading a 30-point favorite in a game with a 70+ point total. We think Mayfield has a relatively high floor this week, even with the risk of losing late game playing time if it gets out of hand. Feel free to pay up for him.
WR – Sterling Shepard– 7,700
Analysis: When healthy, Sterling Shepard can be a top tier wide receiving option. Shepard performed when it counted last week, catching 7 balls for 74 yards along with 2 touchdowns, one of which was the game-winner. It is also worth noting that Shepard exploded last season against Tulsa with 8 receptions for 177 yards and a touchdown.
Recommendation: We are projecting Shepard to be one of the highest scoring receivers on the slate this week. Shepard has a good chance at exceeding 100 yards and getting in the end zone this week, and we think he would be the best top-tier wide receiver play on the slate. However, we are leaning more towards paying up at running back and quarterback rather than wide receiver for this particular slate.
TE - Mark Andrews – 2,600
Analysis: Mark Andrews had a nice showing against Tennessee in week 1, racking up 4 receptions for 50- yards. However, last week against Tennessee, Andrews was totally absent in the passing game. We are projecting for him to once again be involved this week as he is a huge target that can obviously make plays, however be weary of the risk since he didn’t catch a ball last week.
Recommendation: Andrews provides some salary relief at the tight end option, and we project him out as the 2nd best value tight end of the day. We are behind the play if the salary relief allows a solid upgrade, but if you have the extra cash lying around, there are safer options this week.
RB – Samaje Perine– 8,300, Joe Mixon – 6,100
Analysis: Samaje Perine is the feature back in Oklahoma’s offense, with only Joe Mixon and occasionally Baker Mayfield to challenge him for carries. Last week against Tennessee, Perine carried the ball 23 times for 78 yards, but with 0 touchdowns. This week is another story, as Perine faces a Tulsa offense that has given up a 7th worst 524 rushing yards in their 2 games this year, both of which Tulsa actually won (i.e. it was not garbage time pounding…). This is a juicy matchup for the Oklahoma running backs in a game sporting a 70+ point total with Oklahoma heavily favorited. Our only concern would be the blowout factor, with Perine’s upside potentially limited due to lost reps in the second half.
Recommendation: Perine’s price of 8,300 certainly reflects his matchup. His upside is tremendous, but slightly limited in case things get out of hand quickly in this game. We are not projecting enough value to pay up for Perine this week. Joe Mixon is priced much lower at 6,100, but that is still high considering how little he touches the ball (i.e. 5 carries Week 1 against Akron).
UNLV at Michigan
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Michigan -34
O/U: 50
UNLV
Team Expected Points: 7.75
This game has a low total with Michigan heavily favorited. UNLV’s quarterback Blake Decker is highly questionable to play in this game, so we would rather avoid this situation. With our lowest Team Expected Points on the slate of 7.75, definitely avoid this offense.
Michigan
Team Expected Points: 41.75
RB – De’veon Smith – 7,700
Analysis: De’veon Smith sees a large price bump from 4,600 to 7,700 this week due to his break-out performance against Oregon State. Smith carried the ball 23 times for 126 yards and 3 touchdowns, adding on 2 receptions for 24 yards as well. A repeat performance is very likely this week for Smith, as UNLV has given up the 12th most rushing yards this season at 458 and was the absolute worst against the rush last season allowing 3820 total rushing yards.
Recommendation: Even with the bump in price, De’veon Smith is right there near the top of our list on projected Points per Salary this week. Smith is an excellent play in all formats as we think Michigan should dominate this game.
QB – Jake Rudock – 7,600
Analysis: Jake Rudock really disappointed us last week. In a great matchup, Rudock failed to throw a single touchdown pass and put up only 180 yards through the air with 1 interception. The run game dominated that game, and we think the same may happen again this week. Rudock does have another great matchup against a horrible UNLV defense, but his price jumped up higher than we would like to see.
Recommendation: While Jake Rudock has a solid matchup again this week, we are not on board with his price enough to recommend him in cash games. He should be lower owned due to his stinker from last week, so tournament usage is fine.
WR – Amara Darboh – 6,200
Analysis: Amara Darboh is the top wide receiving option for the Wolverines, hauling in 4 receptions on what was an abysmal day for all of their receivers last week due to the run-heavy game plan. Against the UNLV defense, we will consider just about anyone, especially a WR1 priced this low.
Recommendation: At 6,200, Darboh represents another Michigan value play to be considered this week purely based on matchup.
TE – Jake Butt – 3,400
Analysis: After his monster Week 1, Jake Butt took a huge step back in the passing game last week with only 25 total yards and no touchdowns. Still though, 4 receptions for a tight end is very encouraging usage, as Butt is tied with the most receptions on the team at 12.
Recommendation: The consistent usage makes Butt a relatively safe play this week in this great matchup.
Northwestern at Duke
Kickoff: 12:30 PM EST
Spread: Duke -3.5
O/U: 48
Northwestern
Team Expected Points: 22.75
RB – Justin Jackson – 7,100
Analysis: Starting running back Justin Jackson is the workhorse of the Northwestern offense, averaging 25 carries and 106 yards per game through his first 2 contests. Northwestern lives by the run, so we know Jackson will be involved early and often in what should be a very competitive game.
Recommendation: For a feature running back with usage like that of Jackson, we feel that he is fairly underpriced this week at only 7,100. We like a few other guys as well on this slate, but Jackson is a solid value and certainly should be safe play for your cash games.
Duke
Team Expected Points: 26.25
The Blue Devils find themselves in a very tough matchup this week against the nation’s 3rd best defense in Northwestern that has not allowed a touchdown yet this season. This game has one of the lowest totals on the board, and considering the tough matchup, we would not recommend any of the Blue Devil players this week outside of a contrarian GPP start of Thomas Sirk at quarterback due to his dual-thread upside.
Georgia State at Oregon
Kickoff: 2:00 PM EST
Spread: Oregon -44.5
O/U: 72.5
Georgia State
Team Expected Points: 13
Georgia State will not be able to keep up with Oregon in this blowout. We are only projecting 13 points, so stay away from this offense.
Oregon
EDIT: All signs are pointing to Jeff Lockie starting this game and is an excellent value this week.
Team Expected Points: 58.5
QB – Vernon Adams Jr – 8,400, Jeff Lockie – 6,800
Analysis: We all know that the Oregon quarterback position is typically fantasy gold in terms of production. However this week, we are faced with a bit of a conundrum as starter Vernon Adams Jr. is dealing with a broken index finger that could either sideline him or keep him somewhat limited in this contest. Should Adams miss the game, Jeff Lockie would step in as the starter and present some immediate value due to his substantially lower price.
Recommendation: Adams is priced down due to his injury concerns and huge blowout potential in this game. We have projected this position as if both guys should play, and if so, avoid both due to the expected time split since Adams will not be 100%. If Lockie is named the starter with Adams sitting out, Lockie’s stock immediately catapults him to one of the top quarterback plays of the day due to his 6,800 price tag.
RB – Royce Freeman – 8,900, Kani Benoit – 5,200
Analysis: Royce Freeman is the highest priced player of the slate by a large margin at 10,400. Freeman will get his carries, but we expect him to be benched sooner than with Oregon favorited by over 6 touchdowns. Freeman’s backup should be Kani Benoit, who has looked solid this season averaging 7.0 yards per carry in his limited 12 attempts.
Recommendation: Freeman’s price makes playing him very hard to justify this week. Even Kani Benoit at 5,200 is priced higher than we would like to see, so both will be avoided this week.
WR – Oregon spreads the ball around so much at wide receiver that we are not comfortable playing any one of their many talented guys at this position.
Temple at Massachusetts
Kickoff: 3:00 PM EST
Spread: Temple -10.5
O/U: 54.5
Temple
Team Expected Points: 32.75
QB – PJ Walker – 6,800
Analysis: PJ Walker has not been too impressive this season in terms of fantasy production, only passing for 224 yards and a couple of touchdowns. He did have a very tough matchup week 1 against a stingy Penn State defense. In addition, with such a stud as Jahad Thomas at running back getting over 25 carries per game, Walker has not had to do much this year. This week, Temple faces a very weak defense in Massachusetts, ranked 100th overall last season. Jahad Thomas will be fed, but that should open up some big passing lanes for Walker to work with.
Recommendation: PJ Walker is an absolute bargain priced at only 6,800. If you are looking to punt quarterback and fade Jahad Thomas in tournaments, Walker is a solid option. However, we would definitely not recommend that aforementioned strategy in cash games...
RB – Jahad Thomas – 7,700
Analysis: Jahad Thomas is the kind of running back we love to see for fantasy purposes. Thomas’s 55 carries and 328 yards each are 3rd highest of any running back this season. To put it in perspective as to how much of a workhorse Thomas really is, consider that the closest non-quarterback on Temple’s squad has only 9 carries. We have Thomas projected to easily outscore all other running backs on this slate.
Recommendation: Jahad Thomas is one of the top plays at running back on this slate. He is an elite level back in terms of workload and expected success against the weak Massachusetts defense this week, yet he is priced nowhere near the top-tier guys. We expect Thomas to be very highly owned due to his price, so use him in your cash games and fade at your own risk if you are going for the gold in larger tournaments.
Massachusetts
Team Expected Points: 22.25
WR – Tajae Sharpe – 6,700
Analysis: Massachusetts’ go-to wide receiver Tajae Sharpe exploded last week with 11 receptions for 138 yards. No other receiver on this team was even close to him in production last week, however they were playing what is a relatively weak Colorado offense. The matchup takes a 180 this week as the Minutemen host one of the nation’s top defenses in Temple. While Tajae Sharpe should get plenty of looks, we are worried about this very tough defensive matchup.
Recommendation: Tajae Sharpe would be a great GPP play this week due to his upside from the targets in this offense. For cash games, we would rather choose safer options due to his unfavorable matchup.
Cincinnati at Miami Ohio
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Cincinnati -20
O/U: 60.5
Cincinnati
Team Expected Points: 39.75
QB – Gunner Kiel – 8,200
Analysis: Gunner Kiel has been explosive in more than one way this season. On one hand, he has thrown for 660 yards and 4 touchdowns thru his first 2 games, including a 427 yard performance against a tough Temple defense last week. On the other hand, Temple picked him off a whopping 4 times last week, equaling the number of touchdowns he has on the season. Kiel should have a much easier outing this week against a more forgiving Miami Ohio offense that gave up 58 points to Wisconsin last week. This is a pass-heavy offense with Kiel averaging around 32 passes per game last season and 37 passes thus far this season.
Recommendation: Kiel is a top quarterback play on the slate due to his depressed price and huge game upside. We project him for around 400 yards and 4 touchdowns, well worth his 8,200 salary.
WR - Mekale McKay – 5,800, Shaq Washington – 5,700, Johnny Holton – 5,700, Chris Moore – 4,500
Analysis: Cincinnati is loaded with talent at the wide receiver position with 5 guys just over 100 yards on the season. The yardage is so evenly split that only 31 yards separates the top guy from the 5th. Shaq Washington leads the team in receptions with 13, while Johnny Holton leads the core in touchdowns with 2. Mekale Mckay was the beneficiary of an 88-yard touchdown pass to pad his team-leading yardage total of 133. Chris Moore is a 6’2 senior on the fringe in this core who we think has just as much of a chance for a big play as the other guys on this squad.
Recommendation: There are way too many options in this receiving core to pick any single one for a recommended cash game play. All receivers are fair game in tournaments, with Chris Moore providing you with salary relief in addition to upside.
Miami Ohio
Team Expected Points: 20.75
QB – Drew Kummer – 4,900
Analysis: We are listing Drew Kummer here due primarily to his near-minimum price. He does have a good matchup against a very porous Cincinnati defense.
Recommendation: We would never recommend Kummer as a serious play, but he is the ultimate punt for a tournament lineup as a starting quarterback near minimum price with a good matchup.
Auburn at LSU
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Auburn -7
O/U: 48.5
Auburn
Team Expected Points: 21.5
Did you see the Auburn game last week? After that performance, and facing a very stout LSU defense, we are taking no part in this offense even with a very cheap Jeremy Johnson.
LSU
Team Expected Points: 28
RB – Leonard Fournette – 8,400
Analysis: Leonard Fournette really impressed in his first game last week, rushing 28 times for an impressive 159 yards and 3 touchdowns. He was the absolute workhorse of this offense, completely unstoppable the entire game. We expect nothing less of him this week against an Auburn defense that allowed Jacksonville state to rush doe 161 yards on them last week…
Recommendation: We think Fournette is fairly priced at 8,400 this week. Fournette is a high upside guy with a very large of a workload expected. While we aren’t projecting the highest points to salary ratio, he still represents a very safe play that will make it into a few of my lineups this week.
Georgia Tech at Notre Dame
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Georgia Tech -2.5
O/U: 54.5
Georgia Tech
Team Expected Points: 28.5
QB – Justin Thomas – 7,700
Analysis: Justin Thomas showed some improvement last week, as he actually carried the ball 10 times for 71 yards instead of his Week 1 performance of 3 carries for 2 yards. Thomas added a couple of rare passing touchdowns as well to go along with his 97 yards through the air. Thomas sees his first challenge of the year as he goes on the road to face Notre Dame. The Notre Dame defense looked great last week, until the 2nd quarter and onwards when they blew up allowing 28 points and 388 yards over the last 3 quarters. Georgia Tech is an easier team to game plan for, so we think Notre Dame should figure things out this week (but still, good luck stopping this rushing attack…). We project Thomas to sneak in the end zone on the ground, but we are not on board with 100-yard rushing upside due to the mouths to feed in this backfield
Recommendation: We can’t pay 7,700 for Thomas considering the competition for carries in this unpredictable Georgia Tech backfield. He would need that 100+ yard rushing game along with a couple touchdowns to really pay off this week, and we just don’t see that as a safe bet.
RB – Patrick Skov – 5,200
Analysis: Patrick Skov is likely only to get 15 carries and is facing a great defensive lineman in Sheldon Day along with the best middle linebacker in recent college football memory in Jaylon Smith. Skov is the B Back in the triple option offense, which essentially means most of his runs are going to be right up the middle targeting the middle linebacker (i.e. Jaylon Smith). The problem with this position is that he won't catch passes and doesn't have the upside of a traditional running back, so you're essentially relying on a touchdown.
Recommendation: A salary of 5,200 is not horrible, but Skov is not a fantastic play as you're essentially hoping for a short yardage touchdown. He does however have GPP upside due to his ability to get 2-3 short yardage touchdowns.
Notre Dame
Team Expected Points: 26
QB – DeShone Kizer – 6,500
Analysis: With the loss of starter Malik Zaire, sophomore DeShone Kizer takes over as the Fighting Irish quarterback this week. Kizer stepped in during the 3rd quarter last week and led the Irish to victory with his game-winning touchdown pass in the final seconds. Kizer showed some poise in a pressure situation, completing 8 of his 12 attempts for a couple of touchdowns. The downside for all players on the Notre Dame offense in this game will be the tempo downside, as Georgia Tech really slows the game down and hogs the ball due to their constant rushing. If Notre Dame can’t move the ball efficiently, they may not have many opportunities to recover.
Recommendation: Kizer is certainly cheap this week at only 6,500, but we would not target him in cash lineups as we have other quarterbacks projected for much fantasy production at this price tier.
RB – CJ Prosise – 7,800
Analysis: CJ Prosise stepped up last week, rushing 17 times for 155 yards and a touchdown. Prosise should touch the ball often in this game as DeShone Kizer is new at the starting job. Notre Dame will try to establish the run in an attempt to keep the ball away from this high powered Georgia Tech offense, but as we stated above, the overall tempo in this game should be relatively low—this spells avoid in most fantasy situations.
Recommendation: CJ Prosise definitely took a price bump after his performance last week. While we think he gets opportunities in this game, we are not willing to pay the price as there are other options with higher upside on the board for this slate.
WR – Will Fuller – 7,600
Analysis: Will Fuller had a solid outing last week, catching 5 balls for 124 yards and 2 touchdowns, including the game winner with seconds left on the clock. Fuller’s stats were certainly padded by a few big plays, including 59-yard and 39-yard touchdown passes. Outside of that, he really did not produce much against the stingy Virginia secondary. With the loss of go-to tight end Durham Smythe, Fuller’s usage should only improve. We expect Kizer to target his best option in Fuller, but Fuller will be reliant on some big plays and touchdowns to score his fantasy points this week.
Recommendation: Fuller, just like everyone in this offense, is not a safe play in our minds due to the lower tempo expected in this game. We would not fault Fuller in a tournament format due to his explosive potential, but we will be looking elsewhere for safer, cheaper cash game plays.
Nebraska at Miami Florida
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Miami -3
O/U: 58
Nebraska
Team Expected Points: 27
QB – Terrell Newby – 7,700
Analysis: The Nebraska offense is in a tough spot here as they face a stingy Miami defense ranked 8th in yards per game this season. Granted, Miami has not faced many quality opponents, but they do have an extremely talented secondary that could give Tommy Armstrong Jr and his wide receivers fits on the day. Running back Terrell Newby exploded last week, but that was against a weak South Alabama opponent. Even after last week with Newby’s explosion, we still think there is a chance for Imani Cross to eat into his workload as he did Week 1 against BYU.
Recommendation: Do not expect a repeat performance by Newby in this game—he does not grade out well for us this week and we will plan to avoid him in all formats.
Miami Florida
Team Expected Points: 30.5
QB – Brad Kaaya – 7,700
Analysis: The Nebraska defense can certainly be exploited after we saw them allow 511 total yards to BYU in week 1. Brad Kaaya has performed well this year, but has not shown the explosiveness we would have liked to see considering how weak his first 2 matchups were.
Recommendation: For 7,700, Kaaya is not projecting out well and doesn’t have the upside we’d like to see to play him in any format since Miami should continue to rely on their rushing game.
RB / WR – The Miami rushing game has been solid, but 3 backs have over 100 yards with a dead even split between Joseph Yearby and Mark Walton. Joseph Yearby does have a much more favorable price on FanDuel than DraftKings this week, but even with the discount we are not feeling safe to play him outside of tournaments. At wide receiver, Rashawn Scott leads the team in receptions and at his price of only 6,200, he projects out as a mediocre value play for us this week.
Northern Illinois at Ohio State
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Ohio State -34.5
O/U: 66.5
Northern Illinois
Team Expected Points: 16
Per the usual, fade the team playing Ohio State this week.
Ohio State
Team Expected Points: 50.5
Ohio State is just too full of talent for us to really single out viable plays. As a 35 point favorite, they should be able to get multiple guys involved. Both Cardale Jones (9,100) and Ezekiel Elliott (9,500) remain priced up. While receivers Braxton Miller (7,100) and Michael Thomas (6,200) are more manageable prices, they are still too high for us to consider due to the talent on this team. We’ll again be avoiding the Buckeye offense this week.
Virginia Tech at Purdue
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Virginia Tech -6
O/U: 46.5
Virginia Tech
Team Expected Points: 26.5
WR – Isaiah Ford – 6,300
Analysis: WR1 Isaiah Ford leads the team with 8 receptions for 138 yards and 3 touchdowns. With tight end Bucky Hodges potentially out due to injury, Ford’s value would only increase since Hodges has historically seen a large share of red zone looks that would go more towards Ford.
Recommendation: Isaiah Ford becomes a very solid value play if Bucky Hodges is ruled out before game time. With Hodges playing, we look at Ford as more of a risky tournament option with touchdown upside.
TE – Bucky Hodges – 3,500
Analysis: Bucky Hodges is dealing with a bruised quad that has him Questionable for this Saturday. If Hodges is confirmed healthy enough to play, he becomes a solid tight end option.
Recommendation: Hodges tops out projections list for tight ends if he is confirmed healthy enough to play. If there is still any doubt about his status, we would recommend either Jake Butt or Tyler Higbee as your backup options.
Purdue
Team Expected Points: 20.5
Virginia Tech has a top defense in the league against both the run and the pass. Purdue does not have any stand-out fantasy playmakers we plan to consider this week.
Western Kentucky at Indiana
Kickoff: 4:00 PM EST
Spread: Indiana -1.5
O/U: 71.5
Western Kentucky
Team Expected Points: 34
QB – Brandon Doughty – 8,900
Analysis: Brandon Doughty is one of those quarterbacks who is always capable of throwing up a 400+ yard performance due to the Hilltoppers’ high paced offensive system. Doughty threw the ball 38 times last week against Louisiana Tech, amassing 441 yards but only 1 touchdown. We would have liked to see more touchdowns from Doughty, as he only has 2 through 2 games so far. We think the touchdowns will come in this contest, but he will need a lot to pay off this top tier salary. Our projections have him around 350 yards and 3 touchdowns, which would be decent but slightly disappointing for this price tier.
Recommendation: Doughty always represents a relatively safe play on a single-quarterback site due to his high ceiling, however on this slate, we think you can get just as much upside with Gunner Kiel at 700 cheaper.
RB – D’Andre Ferby – 6,000
Analysis: With both the starting and backup running backs out for the Hilltoppers, 3rd stringer D’Andre Ferby will get the start. In his limited opportunities this season, Ferby averaged a dismal 3.3 yards per carry on 16 attempts. He definitely doesn’t have the talent we saw in starter Leon Allen, but he is still worth a look just due to the offensive system he is playing in as the Hilltoppers run a fast and furious pace that is good for plenty of production to go around.
Recommendation: Ferby is priced down at 6,000 and should be worth a look in tournament formats due to his system-related upside. He could just as easily be a bust if the passing game takes over in what looks to be a shootout, so use Ferby sparingly in tournament formats only.
TE – Tyler Higbee – 3,700
Analysis: Tyler Higbee saw plenty of looks last week, racking up a team high 7 receptions for 88 yards. Higbee leads the team in both receptions and yards this year with 11 for 190. These are very dangerous numbers for a tight end in such a pass-heavy, high tempo offense as Western Kentucky. We do expect a slight pull-back with a healthy Jared Dangerfield set to return this week, but it is obvious that Doughty is comfortable throwing to his 6’6 senior tight end.
Recommendation: Higbee is the top priced tight end on the slate for good reason. He has the highest ceiling of any tight end on the board and is worth paying the extra few hundred.
Indiana
Team Expected Points: 35.5
QB – Nate Sudfeld – 8,300
Analysis: Nate Sudfeld gets the pleasure of facing a Western Kentucky defense that allowed over 500 total yards of offense and nearly 40 points per game last season. Sudfeld has a great week 1 this year, but seemed to struggle last week against Florida International.
Recommendation: Sudfeld has a chance to produce solid numbers against a very weak Western Kentucky defense this week. While we would rather have Gunner Kiel in cash games for this same price, Sudfeld will be a lower owned target useful for tournament formats.
RB – Jordan Howard – 8,300
Analysis: Jordan Howard has been in beast mode this season, rushing for an average of 6.5 yards per carry with at least 20 carries in each of his games thus far. Howard was vultured a couple times by his own quarterback last week, but we expect him to get plenty of opportunities this week against a Western Kentucky defense that allowed 230 rushing yards per game last season along with a 168-yard performance by Louisiana Tech workhorse Kenneth Dixon last week.
Recommendation: Howard is definitely in play this week. Of those top tier 8k+ running backs, Howard would be our preferred play as we project him to have a great chance at over 150 rushing yards and a couple of touchdowns.
WR – Ricky Jones – 6,300
Analysis: Ricky Jones leads the team in receiving this season 11 receptions for 304 yards and a touchdown. Jones has had consistent receptions with 6 and 5 thus far this season, but his yardage total in week 1 (168) was over 3 times his total from last week (56). Jones looks to be the #1 target for Sudfeld, which instantly puts him into consideration given the matchup. His yardage inconsistency between games does shed some doubt on him, but we think he has a huge game against this horrible Western Kentucky secondary.
Recommendation: Jones has a great matchup, and we are projecting him as our #1 value play at wide receiver for this slate.
