Exclamation Point! - Yahoo DFS Week 13

A dive into some of the top cash and tournament picks for Yahoo DFS.

Welcome to the Exclamation Point!, an analysis of stand-out cash and GPP options for consideration on Yahoo Daily Fantasy Sports. Yahoo presents a variety of options to suit the fancy of any DFS player out there, and we are looking to arm you with the information needed to build winning lineups no matter what type of player you are. This article will point out some solid plays at varying salary tiers per position to allow you plenty of flexibility in your lineup construction process.  

 

QUARTERBACK


drew brees - $40 (CASH / GPP)

Drew Brees has been stellar this season, leading the league in passing yards (3,587), passing touchdowns (30), and completion percentage (71.5%) while ranking second overall in fantasy scoring. According to Pro Football Focus, Drew Brees has an adjusted completion percentage of 80.4% when facing no pressure this season—the second best ranking this season. The Lions defense has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete a league-high 74% of passes against them while sacking the quarterback only 20 times—two stats that match up very well for Drew Brees. The Lions defense, as you might imagine by now, is horribly ranked against the pass—dead last using DVOA. Drew Brees at home in this glorious matchup with the highest Vegas total of the week sets him up as an elite play in all formats even with his top-level salary.

andrew luck - $34 (cash)

Andrew Luck is expected to suit up for Monday Night Football after being held out from last week’s game due to the concussion protocol. The Vegas total in this game is one of the highest of the week with the Colts coming in as slight favorites in New York. Luck has played well this season with solid passing numbers along with a very respectable very respectable 22.4 rushing yards per game. While he has struggled early on in games, Luck has excelled as a closer with the majority of his fantasy points coming in the fourth quarter of close or comeback games. The Jets defense is noted as a typical pass-funnel unit this season, ranking 3rd against the run but 29th against the pass using DVOA. While the Jets defense has appeared to be playing better against the pass recently, their quality of opponents has been lacking—having faced Case Keenum, Ryan Tannehill, and Josh McCown in three of their last four games. Luck has thrown for multiple touchdowns in three of his last four games with nice rushing totals to pad his stat line. Look to trust Luck for a solid performance in a safe matchup to hit cash game value.

matthew stafford - $33 (GPP)

Matthew Stafford is set up for a big outing in a favorable matchup with the Saints that very well could turn into another Superdome shootout. Stafford has not put up huge fantasy numbers this season, but he has actually looked decent in recent weeks with the ability to make plays in key situations and gain some yards with his legs as we saw with his 30 yards on the ground against the Vikings last week. The Lions inherently pass much more than they run due to an overall lack of size and rushing talent in the backfield. This matchup sets up for a very favorable game script with the Lions likely needing to pass often to keep up with the Saints offense. The Saints’ secondary is easy to exploit, ranking near the bottom of the league in multiple passing categories. While Stafford’s floor may be lower than that of someone like Andrew Luck priced only $1 more, his ceiling in this matchup is definitely high enough to be considered as a primary GPP target.

ben roethlisberger - $32 (CASH / GPP)

Ben Roethlisberger has been up and down this season, but the one consistent in Roethlisberger’s career has been his stellar performances at home. This season, he is averaging 366 yards and 3.75 touchdowns in his four home games. Even taking home / road splits off the table, Roethlisberger has been solid with a touchdown on every 16.2 pass attempts while leading the league with 11 touchdowns on throws of 15 or more yards. This matchup is not as scary as it looks when you really break it down. While the Giants defense is ranked 7th against the pass using DVOA, their strength of schedule ranking is 21st. The Giants have not faced an elite quarterback since Week 5, with names such as Case Keenum, Jay Cutler, and Josh McCown on their schedule. As long as the weather holds up, Roethlisberger should be in a great spot here to put up solid numbers to pay off in all formats at this discounted salary.
 

RUNNING BACK

 

david johnson - $41 (CASH / GPP)

Both David Johnson and Le'Veon Bell are your elite options this week, both in price and fantasy relevance. However, among the two, Johnson is the guy to target with the majority of your exposure. His involvement in all facets of the offense has been stellar this season, actually averaging more receiving yards than rushing yards per game over the past four weeks. The Cardinals to not have an Antonio Brown to throw to (granted, Larry Fitzgerald is not too shabby), making David Johnson their week to week workhorse. The matchup for Johnson is also far superior to that of Bell this week. The Redskins rank dead last against the run using DVOA, allowing the league’s most rushing touchdowns (16), second most rushing yards per attempt (4.7), and seventh most fantasy points per game to running backs. A solid cash game strategy this week will be to build your lineups around David Johnson, as his output will be much more dependable than that of any other elite receivers out there.

lesean mccoy - $29 (GPP / CASH)

LeSean McCoy is in a great spot this week as he continues to bounce back from a thumb injury sustained in Week 11. In his first game back after minor surgery, McCoy rushed for over 100 yards and a touchdown with 31 more yards through the air—looking to have no lingering effects from the injury. McCoy matches up this week with a Raiders defense ranking 27th against the run using DVOA that has allowed the 10th most fantasy points per game to running backs, including a total of 200 yards and three touchdowns on the ground to opposing RB1’s in their last two games. McCoy has been known for his explosive plays this season, with 413 of his 815 rushing yards having come on plays he has rushed for 15 or more yards—ranking him first among all running backs with a breakaway percentage of 50.7 (per Pro Football Focus). This stacks up very well against a bad Raiders defense allowing 4.6 rushing yards per attempt (30th in NFL). McCoy’s price is still depressed likely due to his recent injury, making him an excellent value play this week, particularly in GPP formats due to his high upside from this matchup.

spencer ware - $25 (GPP)

Spencer Ware has been a guy who recently dropped off the radar with some tough outings, but looks to be in a good spot to bounce back here in a solid matchup with the Falcons. Ware has put up double digit fantasy points in only one of his last four games with no touchdowns across that span—not a great streak at all. However, the Atlanta Falcons are getting thrashed by running backs this season, allowing the second most fantasy points per game to the position. The Falcons have been particularly weak defending against pass-catching backs, allowing a whopping 114 targets for 91 receptions and 756 receiving yards to the position—all ranking at the top of the chart. Ware has not been noted for huge pass-catching games, but he is used through the air with multiple receptions in in six straight games, averaging close to 30 receiving yards per game across that span. Ware is not quite as safe as he could be for cash game consideration, but this matchup and low ownership from his recent poor outings should give him the required upside to be considered for GPP rosters.

devontae Booker - $18 (cash / GPP)

Devontae Booker has a positive matchup against a bottom-half ranked Jaguars rushing defense this week. The Broncos have been using Booker very heavily in recent weeks despite his lack of overall productivity, allowing him to rush the ball 24 times in back to back weeks while he has averaged only 3.2 yards per carry with no touchdowns to show for his workload. While Kapri Bibbs has been receiving an increasing number of snaps in recent weeks, Booker still carried the ball nearly three times more than him last week while Bibbs was even less productive than Booker averaging barely over 2.4 yards per carry. The Jaguars defense has allowed 13 rushing touchdowns this season—while the Vegas total in this game is relatively low, the Broncos are favored by almost a touchdown which points to a heavy rushing game script for Booker to take advantage of. Booker is near the top of the H-Value scale on our Footballguys Interactive Value Chart due to his cheap salary. With the expected workload, Booker will only need a single touchdown, even with mediocre production, to hit value in cash games this week.
 

WIDE RECEIVER


julio jones - $36 (cash / GPP)

 Julio Jones will be one of your best options at the top end of the wide receiver chart this week. Despite having a decent ranked defense overall, the Kansas City Chiefs are allowing the league’s most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. The Chiefs defense has really struggled with efficiency in recent weeks, allowing an average of 424 yards per game—2nd most across that span. They have allowed a 100+ yard receiver in back to back weeks, including three receiving touchdowns to a mediocre Denver Broncos offense last week. While Julio Jones has had his ups and downs this season, he remains firmly planted at the top of the stat sheet in receiving yards per game (103.6), yards after the catch (305), and average yards per catch (17.5) among top-50 receivers. His salary is slightly down from the level it has been this season, but it of course will still be hard to fit him in with some of the other elite options out there. Prioritize an elite running back over wide receivers, but if you can take advantage of some of the values at other positions and have room to sneak Jones in your cash game lineup, definitely do so to gain some exposure.

Golden tate - $19 (cash / gpp)

Golden Tate has one of the best matchups of his season as he gets to play in the Superdome in what should be the highest scoring game of the slate. Tate has been the Lions’ most consistent receiving option in the last over the last six games, averaging nine targets for 6.7 receptions and 80.5 yards per game during that span. The Saints defense is not good against the pass, and they have been particularly bad against the smaller slot receivers such as Tate. In three of the last four games, the Saints have given up around 13.5 points per game to receivers with similar styles and positions to that of Tate (namely Kenny Britt, Ted Ginn Jr, and Quinton Patton). All three Lions receivers are priced the same this week, but Tate stands out clearly as the safest option amongst the three. Getting exposure to the Lions offense in this matchup would be very smart, and Tate is a very affordable option with a solid floor / ceiling to roll with in all formats.

willie snead - $20 (gpp / cash)

Willie Snead IV should be an under-the-radar option in a great matchup against the Lions this week. While Snead’s fantasy production has been up and down with only three double-digit outings over his past eight games, Snead actually has received more total targets than Brandin Cooks during that span. Coming out of the slot, Snead will have one of the best individual matchups of any receiver on the slate as he should see Quandre Diggs on most snaps. According to Pro Football Focus, Diggs has allowed 91% of passes thrown in his direction to be completed. With Drew Brees expected to be one of, if not the highest scoring fantasy quarterback of the week, there should be plenty of production to spread around. Snead has the best individual matchup and lowest salary among Saints receivers. The matchup alone puts Snead in consideration across the board, but more so in tournament formats due to the unpredictable nature of target distribution in the Saints offense on a game by game basis.

tyreek hill - $18 (GPP)

Tyreek Hill has emerged in recent weeks as one of the most versatile and dangerous players on the field in a Chiefs offense that has lacked production at the wide receiver position for a long time now. Over the past three weeks, Hill has been targeted 28 times, hauling in 23 of those for 194 yards and a touchdown. Hill had a huge game last week with three touchdowns, each scored by a different means. Hill caught the game-tying touchdown to chalk up his fifth receiving touchdown of the season. Hill also found the end zone on the ground for the first time after carrying the ball at least once in all but two games this season. If that was not enough, Hill also plays a big role on special teams with both kickoff and punt return duties, scoring his first career kickoff return touchdown last week. With Jeremy Maclin expected to be back on the field, Hill’s ownership should be depressed—but his threat for the big play is still ever-present in this offense based on what we have seen over the past few weeks. The matchup with Atlanta should be solid as they have a bottom-third ranked pass defense allowing the eighth most fantasy points per game to wide receivers. While Hill is too risky for cash game consideration with Maclin suiting up, he is a prime option in tournament formats due to his upside and expected low ownership.  

dontrelle inman - $16 (gpp / CASH)

Dontrelle Inman could be in store for a big opportunity this week with the possibility of Tyrell Williams missing this game and Travis Benjamin virtually non-existent due to a nagging knee injury. Even with Williams on the field last week against Houston, Inman had a huge game as he caught six balls for 119 yards and a touchdown. Inman has been on the field for more plays than any other Chargers receiver this season. The Buccaneers have been playing better and better on defense this season, but they still have been susceptible to allowing big games as we saw a few weeks back with Julio Jones and Amari Cooper putting up massive numbers. Should Tyrell Williams be active for this game, Inman is relegated to GPP consideration only since Williams has been the dominant receiving target here. However, if Williams is ruled out, Inman vaults into cash game consideration at this salary.

dorial green-beckham - $11 (gpp / CASH)

Dorial Green-Beckham has been seeing an increased workload in recent weeks, amassing eight and ten targets in his past two games for 136 yards and a touchdown in that span. Green-Beckham has seen solid time on the field as of late, and could see a huge boost in usage should Jordan Mathews (ankle) be ruled out this week. He will be squaring off against a middle-ranked Bengals pass defense that hasn’t allowed a ton of points to wide receivers this season, but at minimum salary with the usage that Green-Beckham has seen recently, he has to be in consideration as a punt option at the position. Should Mathews miss this game, Green-Beckham will be a very attractive cash game option. If Mathews suits up here, limit exposure to Green-Beckham.

TIGHT END


travis kelce - $21 (CASH / GPP)

Tight end is a tough position to pin down this week. With Rob Gronkowski and Jordan Reed expected to be sidelined, Delanie Walker on bye, and both Jimmy Graham and Greg Olsen recently struggling, the pickings are slim for safe yet high upside tight end options. The one man left standing near the top however is Travis Kelce—the 5th highest scoring fantasy tight end of the season. Kelce has been the most targeted receiving option for Kansas City, stringing together a couple of massive outings in the past two weeks with over 100 receiving yards in back to back games for the first time in his career. While he only has three touchdowns on the season, Kelce has been consistently targeted in the red zone as he leads all Kansas City receivers in red zone looks with 16. Kelce has done an excellent job after catching the ball this season also, amassing more yards after the catch (360) than any other tight end (according to Pro Football Focus) The Atlanta Falcons have allowed the league’s fifth most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends, including double-digit scoring tight ends in six of their eleven games this season. While Jeremy Maclin’s probable return puts a damper on Kelce’s ceiling, he still will be one of the most reliable options at the position this week.

C.J. Fiedorowicz - $16 (CASH)

C.J. Fiedorowicz has emerged as one of the most reliable pass-catching options for a struggling Texans offense this season. Fiedorowicz is averaging over six targets per game since Week 4, with at least three receptions and an average of 52.8 receiving yards per game. According to Pro Football Focus, Fiedorowicz has averaged the third most yards per route run (2.39) among tight ends during this same eight-week span. The Packers are allowing the eighth most fantasy points per game to tight ends and have an injury riddled secondary and linebacker core. While they have been tough on tight ends in recent weeks, Fiedorowicz remains a primary option for a Houston offense that is expected to be playing from behind this week. His salary is near the low end this week, and while he would need a touchdown to pay off for tournaments, Fiedorowicz should be a good bet for cash game value.
 

DEFENSE


baltimore ravens - $18 (CASH / GPP)

This is the time of year to begin paying attention to weather when considering fantasy defense plays—so keep an eye on things Sunday morning, as that could affect the viability of some otherwise questionable plays at this position. Regardless of weather, the Baltimore Ravens have been one of the best under-the-radar defenses in the league this season. They rank 4th in both total fantasy points scored (99) and actual points allowed per game (18.3) to opposing offenses. According to Football Outsiders, the Ravens have the #1 overall ranked defense in the league using DVOA, ranking #1 against the run and #8 against the pass. They match up against a Miami defense who’s rushing attack has been their strength, making this a good pairing for a Ravens team allowing only 74.9 rushing yards per game. This game has one of the lowest totals on the slate, and the Ravens are priced a few dollars from the top, making them a viable option to pay up for in all formats this week.

GREEN BAY PACKERS - $11 (CASH / GPP)

The Green Bay Packers come into this week with a juicy matchup against what has been an anemic Texans offense that has struggled to move the ball all season, ranking next to last in passing yards per game (195.9) and 29th in points scored per game (17.6). Brock Osweiler has played very poorly this season, currently leading the league in interceptions with 12 while completing 59.5% of his passes for only 10 touchdowns. The Packers defense has not played well in terms of points allowed this season, but their defensive line has been a bright spot as they rank 7th in sacks with 28, recording at least two sacks in all but one game this season. The Packers defense is priced near the minimum salary in this matchup with plenty of upside to force both sacks and interceptions while keeping the score down—feel free to roll with them in all formats to save some salary on a tightly priced slate. 


More articles from Keith Roberts

See all

More articles on: Daily FF

See all

More articles on: Yahoo

See all