Finding the Wide Receiver With the Most Value For Week 8

Where to Find Value at Wide Receiver in Week 8

BJ VanderWoude: AJ Green, Keenan Allen, Kelvin Benjamin, Pierre Garcon and Devin Funchess all have excellent matchups against opposing secondaries that have been very generous to wide receivers. Using a PP$ approach, which of these wide receivers do you see having the most value this week? Will you have exposure to them in cash games and GPP's?  Are they any receivers you are shying away from this week? 

Jason Wood: As I mentioned in our quarterback's discussion, I have no interest in Cam Newton this week in spite of his projected value/$$ of salary. He's been alarmingly inconsistent and just hasn't looked right in most games. That removes Funchess and Benjamin from my plans, too. If you want to argue using both Funchess/Benjamin along with Newton in a GPP super-stack, I can see that as a strategy. I won't be taking that path, but it's understandable. Of the remaining three receivers, it's hard not to vault A.J. Green to the top of the pack even with the highest salary. The Colts are among the worst defensive teams I've seen in years, and Green is the engine of an otherwise moribund Bengals offense. Between Allen and Garcon, I would roll with Garcon. The Eagles secondary is suspect and now linebacker Jordan Hicks is done for the season.

James Brimacombe: A.J. Green and Keenan Allen are one-two for me out of this bunch and would follow it up with Kelvin Benjamin/Devin Funchess (pick one or the other), and Pierre Garcon who should see some garbage time production. Just writing that actually makes me move Garcon ahead of the Carolina receivers as he should see plenty of production in the second half of that game. Keenan Allen is averaging 9.7 targets a game right now and gets a Patriots team that ranks 4th worst against opposing wide receivers, allowing 14 catches, 200 yards, and a touchdown on average.

Phil Alexander: How could anyone watch Blake Bortles' decimation of Indianapolis' pass defense on the road last week and not answer A.J. Green here? He's at the top of my wide receiver board by a mile in both cash games and GPPs. The Colts' opponent completion rate on passes thrown between 20-and-25 yards downfield is about 20% higher than league average (per airyards.com). Don't overthink this -- when the best wide receiver on the slate draws the best matchup, just click his name and move on.

John Mamula: I agree with the group consensus that A.J. Green is the wide receiver from the list that has the most value. He is a must play for me in cash games and GPP tournaments. Hopefully the lackluster performance against the Steelers last week will help keep his ownership levels down. The Colts are ranked as the second-worst pass defense allowing 301 passing yards per game. 

Keenan Allen is in consideration for cash games and GPP tournaments as game script suggests that the Chargers will be forced to pass to keep up with the Patriots offense.  The Patriots are ranked as the worst pass defense allowing a league-leading 310 passing yards per game and 15 touchdowns. 

At this time, I plan on avoiding the Carolina offense and Pierre Garcon. They are too inconsistent for my liking.

Dan Hindery: A.J. Green has the best PP$ projection, especially on FanDuel. He has a great shot at scoring a touchdown. The Bengals have an implied team total of 26 points and have scored just two rushing touchdowns all season. The scoring is most likely to come via the pass and the Bengals currently have very few reliable pass catchers. Tyler Eifert is out for the season. John Ross and Tyler Boyd are both injured and unlikely to play as well. Green should see plenty of targets and his matchup is even better with the Colts’ top defender, Malik Hooker, out for the season with an ACL injury.

I am shying away from Keenan Allen this week. Even with the New England defense struggling this season, they have still done a good job taking away the opposing team’s top weapon. Allen is the go-to guy in the San Diego offense and is likely to see extra defenders in his area on third downs. The Patriots have held Travis Kelce, Michael Thomas, DeAndre Hopkins, Christian McCaffrey, and Mike Evans to below-average games. New England locked down Julio Jones last week until the final drive in garbage time. 

Justin Howe: Allen is virtually an every-week fade for me as the most low-impact option in his pricing tier. I wasn’t lulled by his two long catch-and-runs from earlier this month, and I’m confident I can peg him as a short-to-intermediate guy (just 9 of his 68 targets have been 15+ yards beyond the line) who will typically struggle to produce more than 11-12 yards per catch. He doesn’t produce touchdowns, either – just 9 over his last 30 games – and while his volume is consistently strong, it’s not overwhelming and doesn’t make him some weekly 9-reception threat. Allen looks to me like a GPP black hole, and he’s too pricey for his floor in cash, so he's never really a part of my plans. That’s even true in a matchup with the Patriots; I suspect they’ll look to get their tight ends and downfield game going against the defense that’s allowed more 20+ yard catches than anyone. That would likely leave Allen in the cold again, producing 4-8 low-impact receptions and only a modest touchdown shot. Garcon carries a very similar ceiling projection at an $1,100-$1,200 discount.

Green is definitely the top name in play here. The Colts defense is truly abysmal, and not even Vontae Davis is looking good in coverage. Green is a target hog and a splash play extraordinaire who can generally reach DFS value on 6 catches or 11, and it’s hard to imagine the Colts truly containing him, even with added attention. His floor is stable this week, but his ceiling is off the charts.

I also agree with Jason that Benjamin and Funchess make for decent GPP stacks with Newton – but also that I won’t be in on them very much. I prefer a similarly-priced stack like Russell Wilson-Doug Baldwin or Carson Wentz-Zach Ertz to a Panthers pairing.

 


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