BJ VanderWoude: Antonio Brown, Jordy Nelson, Mike Evans, Golden Tate and Larry Fitzgerald all have great matchups against secondaries who have given up big games to opposing wide receivers. Using a PP$ approach, give us the two wide receivers who will prove to be the best value in week 6.
James Brimacombe: Terrelle Pryor is a name that I like this week, as he is coming off a bye week and before that he finally connected with Kirk Cousins for a touchdown. Washington is a 10-point favorite at home against the 49ers and will be looking to jump out to a big lead early. Pryor has 24 targets, 13 receptions, 186 yards and a touchdown through 4 games, and might finally be on the same page with Cousins. The 49ers defense is 7th worst against the WR position allowing 13/185/1 to the position and is coming off a game where T.Y. Hilton caught 7 passes for 177 yards.
The next name that I would look at is Michael Crabtree
against the Chargers. I especially like this play if Derek Carr
is healthy and playing. Through four games Crabtree has recorded four touchdowns. The Chargers also grade out as the 10th worst team against opposing wide receivers allowing 11/136/1.6 line to the position.
Dan Hindery: I can’t help but feel like some of these guys are traps that should be avoided. For example, while Arizona has struggled against the pass in general, the Cardinals and Patrick Peterson have locked down opposing #1 receivers. Peterson has held the opponents’ top outside wide receiver to the following lines this season:Marvin Jones Jr: 2-37-1TY Hilton: 4-49-0Dez Bryant: 2-12-1Pierre Garçon: 4-36-0Alshon Jeffery: 3-31-0Peterson shadowed Evans on the majority of snaps in their matchup last season and held him to 6 catches on 18 targets. With better depth at wide receiver and tight end, Tampa Bay won’t have to force targets to Evans this year. If you are paying up at wide receiver this week, I prefer DeAndre Hopkins. The Browns 31st ranked DVOA pass defense has allowed 74% of the passes against them to be completed. Hopkins is averaging 12.2 targets per game on the season and should see at least that many against a defense that funnels opponents towards the pass. He is the safest bet this week to catch 8+ passes. Plus, while his price has risen in recent weeks, he is still priced well below the top receivers like Antonio Brown. Antonio Brown’s price makes him difficult to fit into cash lineups but he has serious upside for GPPs this week. Kansas City ranks 22nd in DVOA against opposing #1 receivers. The Chiefs play their cornerbacks, including Marcus Peters, on the same side of the field every snap, which allows opposing offenses to move their top wide receiver around to find the most favorable matchup. Due to this, the Chiefs have faced the 4th most targets to opposing #1 receivers.
Chris Feery: I’m also liking DeAndre Hopkins and Terrelle Pryor on a PP$ approach for Week 6. DeShaun Watson has been electric thus far, and there’s nothing to suggest that the Browns will be the team to slow him down. Hopkins could be in line for a field day against a fantasy-friendly defense. As James already mentioned, Washington is coming in off of a bye to face one of the worst teams in the league at home. Kirk Cousins is putting together a solid under the radar season, and he tossed multiple touchdowns in both games before the bye. I expect that pattern to continue this week against the 49ers, and Pryor should be one of the beneficiaries.
John Mamula: DeAndre Hopkins
is my preferred pay up wide receiver for cash games this week. The Browns defense has struggled versus number one wide receivers allowing Antonio Brown
to finish with 11 receptions for 182 yards in Week 1 and T.Y. Hilton
to breakout with seven receptions for 153 yards and one touchdown in Week 3.
It will be difficult to pay all the way up to Antonio Brown
's salary without making sacrifices to other areas of your roster. Thus, Brown makes for an intriguing GPP option this week. I agree with Dan's analysis of Mike Evans
. I'm avoiding wide receivers that are matched up against Patrick Peterson
until further notice.
Of the listed options, I’ll start with Antonio Brown
, but that’s an every-week thing: Brown is a matchup-proof stud and a threat to catch 8+ passes in any game script. This is a guy who’s produced 70+ receiving yards in 13 of his last 17 games, with 10+ receptions in 3 of his last 5. His date with Kansas City cornerback Terrance Mitchell
isn’t especially juicy, but it’s a rock-solid one, and a rock-solid matchup for Brown is typically a yellow brick road to a top-three WR line.
I’m also into Mike Evans
’ value. Even with Patrick Peterson
looking, Evans looks like robbery at his slashed salary. Peterson typically shadows a specific receiver for about 40% of his snaps, which does indeed cap Evans’ ultimate ceiling; he won’t be going off for 10 catches and multiple touchdowns. It seems fair to expect that coverage trend to hold up this week, and for Evans to see more of Peterson than he’d like. But that would still leave ample snaps for him to draw targets and make splash plays. In last year’s matchup – which was similar on the Tampa Bay side, with deep threat Vincent Jackson
on the other boundary – Evans caught just 35% of his targets, but still produced a 6-catch, 70-yard, 1-touchdown line that would come very close to hitting cash value at this depressed price. If we can project him to keep the strong volume (say, 12 targets), tweak that inefficiency to something a little more typical and likely (catching 50%), and apply his 11.5-yard average with a touchdown, and we again get a solid midlevel projection around 6-70-1. Given his immense upside, it’s a decent play in cash but a dynamite GPP one.
Jason Wood: Jordy didn't look right last week, but insists he's healthy. I'll be fading that, even though it could hurt me, because I want to see him at 100% before building lineups around him. I also don't think Larry Fitzgerald belongs in this conversation given the uncertain state of the Cardinals offense and John Brown being healthy (finally).
For me, the clear choices here are Antonio Brown
and Mike Evans
. Neither are inexpensive, but both have plus matchups as you noted and little credible competition for touches. Neither Martavis Bryant
nor DeSean Jackson
are target hogs, and both quarterbacks have something to prove after a less-than-ideal start to the season. Winston has been much better than Roethlisberger, but he hasn't been the MVP many of us expected. Since I have more confidence in Winston, I'll give Evans the big nod over Brown. But Brown is #2 among this grouping.
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