Finding GPP and Cash Game Value at Wide Receiver

With the exception of the top tier of wide receivers, pricing has been all over the place from week to week. Pick one wide receiver that you will have exposure to in cash games, and pick one wide receiver that you will have exposure to in GPP's.

BJ VanderWoude: With the exception of the top tier of wide receivers, pricing has been all over the place from week to week. Pick one wide receiver that you will have exposure to in cash games, and pick one wide receiver that you will have exposure to in GPP's.

James Brimacombe: A.J. Green is the guy I want in cash games this week for the second week in a row. The Bengals will be looking for their first win of the year and you can’t ask for a better spot to get that than against the Browns at home. The Browns have given up big games to Antonio Brown 11/182/0, Jeremy Maclin 4/31/1, and T.Y. Hilton 7/153/1. Green himself is coming off a game where he caught 10-of-13 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown. The Bengals are only 3-point favorites in this game but it feels like a spot where they can take advantage of a young team and put up some points. Green had a big game against the Browns last year in Week 7 where he caught all 8 of his targets for 169 yards and a touchdown.

Dan Hindery: While I have a full week of roster-tinkering and news-reading ahead of me before locking in any cash plays, one player who has at least caught my eye early in the week is Eric Decker ($4,200 on DraftKings, $5,600 on FanDuel). He’s had a quiet start to the season but may be due for a breakout game. With rookie Corey Davis sidelined with a hamstring injury, Decker played 84% of the snaps in Week 3 against Seattle. He caught just 4 passes for 49 yards but was more impressive than his stat line indicates. He lined up almost exclusively against elite cornerback Richard Sherman and in addition to catching 4-of-5 targets, he also drew a key pass interference penalty against Sherman. The Texans have a solid run defense but just gave up 378 passing yards and 5 touchdowns to Tom Brady. Marcus Mariota should find at least some success, with Decker and Rishard Matthews (another cheap cash-game candidate) as the prime beneficiaries.

I will have at least some exposure to DeSean Jackson ($5,200 on DraftKings, $6,700 on FanDuel). Jackson was a cash game staple for me last week due to his $4,600 DraftKings salary and sneakily good matchup. As long as his price remains low, Jackson should be in cash-game consideration every week in which Mike Evans is facing a top CB. This week, Evans will match up against Janoris Jenkins, which should again push a couple targets toward Jackson. With the other solid wide receiver options under $5,000, Jackson is more of a GPP play this week, but still a guy to target. He has seen seven targets in each of his first two games and half of them came on deep balls. Jackson should again see at least seven targets in Week 3, which is a healthy amount for a guy who averaged 1.96 fantasy points per target last season.

John Mamula: For cash games, I am going back to the well with A.J. Green. Until the Bengals get their first victory this season, they will continue to emphasize their playmakers. The loss of Tyler Eifert for multiple weeks locks Green into double-digit targets. He is simply a must play against the Browns this week.

Prediction: A.J. Green: ten receptions for 128 yards and one touchdown

For GPP's, I think this is a Demaryius Thomas week. The Broncos return home after losing 26-16 to the Bills. Look for the Broncos to get back to the lab and realize that they need to get their playmakers more touches. Thomas does not have a game with double-digit targets and has not scored a touchdown yet this season Expect that to change this week with a breakout performance versus the Raiders.

Prediction: Demaryius Thomas: nine receptions on 13 targets for 120 yards and two touchdowns.

Justin Bonnema: I don’t play cash games but agree that Green is an excellent option for those that do. In GPPs, I’m going to sort of tread the same path as Howe, but instead of Shephard, I’m liking Marshall. He and Manning finally built a rapport last week, connecting eight times on 11 targets. This game could be high scoring and the Buccaneers’ secondary clearly has leaks. They also have a number of key injuries building up including Lavonte David, Gerald McCoy, and Noah Spence. The Giants are going to win this game on the road but not with running backs. Give me Marshall and a couple of touchdowns.

Phil Alexander: I agree with the consensus on A.J. Green for cash games (and as a GPP staple). New offensive coordinator Bill Lazor predictably schemed the ball to Green early and often during his first game on the job, and will almost assuredly continue feeding his best weapon moving forward. Considering what fellow upper crust wide receivers Antonio Brown (11-182-0) and T.Y. Hilton ( 7-153-1) have done to the Browns this season, Green has to be considered the favorite for overall WR1 honors this week.

I like Dan's thinking on targeting a Titans wide receiver against the Kevin Johnson-less Texans secondary, but I'll opt for Rishard Matthews -- who has actually scored fantasy points when targeted this season -- over Eric Decker. In the two games, Corey Davis was either limited or out, Matthews received 9 and 10 targets respectively. Davis should miss again this week. Not only is Matthews receiving more targets than Decker, he's also receiving higher quality targets. Per airyards.com, Matthews leads the Titans in air yards over Decker by more than double. A low over/under (43.5) should mean this game flies under the collective radar of your opponents, making a Mariota-Matthews stack viable in GPPs.

Justin Howe: It's early in the week, but at this point, my primary cash receiver will probably be A.J. Green. As James points out, the Browns have hemorrhaged production to opposing WR1s, and Green should feast on would-be shadow cornerback Jamar Taylor. But I'm also remaining open to Odell Beckham Jr Jr., who's fully healthy and will find himself in an even better matchup IF Brent Grimes sits again. Without Grimes last week, Tampa Bay's cornerbacks had no answer for Case Keenum, allowing slot man Adam Thielen to reach cash value and Stefon Diggs to destroy it. If Grimes can’t go, and Beckham finds himself matched up on Vernon Hargreaves and Ryan Smith, he’d be hard-pressed to not post a monstrous, or at least cash-value, line. Beckham carries GPP appeal either way, but the lack of Grimes brings us the confidence to invest in his hefty salary for cash as well.

In GPPs, where I'm looking to zig where the field wants to zag, I'll probably invest a decent amount in Sterling Shepard repeating his Week 3 brilliance, and even a little in Brandon Marshall. The DFS world will flock to Beckham, but Shepard was fantastic himself last Sunday, catching 7 of his 10 targets for 133 yards and 1 touchdown. And his Week 4 matchup is downright sexy, whether Grimes can play or not. He'll face off almost exclusively against Buccaneers slot cornerback Robert McClain, who's allowed hefty production to both Thielen and the Bears' slot tandem of Kendall Wright/Tarik Cohen. Marshall would be a strict contrarian play, rooted in the assumption that the Buccaneers will sell out against Beckham and leave Marshall isolated for much of the game. After finally coming somewhat alive in Week 3 (11 targets, 8 catches), Marshall could be in line for the same production level plus a touchdown opportunity or two.

 

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