Predicting Game Scripts

With the exception of the games exceeding a total of 50 points, pick a game with a predictable game script, and tell us how you see it playing out.  Which players benefit from that game script? Are there any potentially high owned players that you see not benefiting from this game script? 

With the exception of the games exceeding a total of 50 points, pick a game with a predictable game script, and tell us how you see it playing out.  Which players benefit from that game script? Are there any potentially high owned players that you see not benefiting from this game script? 

Phil Alexander: Houston is a 5.5 point home favorite against Jacksonville and Texans coach Bill O'Brien confirmed the game will be played in Houston, despite the city still reeling from the effects of Hurricane Harvey. Is there a doubt in anyone's mind the Texans will be playing their hearts out for the home crowd? And does anyone think Blake Bortles isn't good for at least two turnovers in this game?



It's tough to get behind an offense tied to Tom Savage, but the Texans defense is going to gift him favorable field position throughout this one. I'm expecting 25+ touches for Lamar Miller, who looks underpriced on DraftKings at $5,100 (Running Back 19). Both Alfred Blue and D'Onta Foreman are iffy for this game, which solidifies Miller's grip on every-down duties. I'll probably have more DeAndre Hopkins than the field as well. Hopkins has top-tier upside in any given week and received a combined 23 targets in the two games Savage logged significant playing time last year.

Dan Hindery:  The Bills-Jets game should be a slow-moving, low-scoring, run-heavy affair. Both teams are bereft of serious weapons at the wide receiver position, which should lead to some struggles throwing the ball. While the pace of play is a concern, the lack of weapons at receiver could lead to extra work for the starting running backs in the passing game. While there could be potential value available at wide receiver and tight end due to near-minimum pricing across the board, the better play is probably to focus on the running backs. LeSean McCoy and Bilal Powell could each lead their team in targets. 

James Brimacombe: Philadelphia against Washington looks to be a back and forth type of game and both teams have uncertainty at the running back position so it could be a back and forth game between Carson Wentz and Kirk Cousins through the air which will create big plays down the field and help keep time on the clock. The Eagles are a 1-point favorite with a 47.5 over/under. Hard not to like the Carson Wentz, Alshon Jeffery and Zach Ertz plays on Philadelphia and Kirk Cousins with Jordan Reed looks like a prime stack for GPP's.

Jason Wood: I'm leery of the Bills this season, and as a result worry about LeSean McCoy's season-long fantasy prospects. However, Week One should be a head fake because the Jets might be the worst team in a generation. The Jets weren't going to contend before they opted to gut their roster and tank in hopes of landing Sam Darnold from USC in next year's draft. Now they're going to be lucky to win a game or two. With Tyrod Taylor being questionable, the idea of the Bills giving Nathan Peterman the reins to throw the ball around seems far-fetched. The Jets are one of the few teams Buffalo should be able to pound the ball against even though the passing attack is a non-factor. 

Chris Feery: The Arizona-Detroit game looks to be another potential shootout. Despite his hefty price tag, we can expect David Johnson’s ownership percentage to be pretty healthy. He obviously deserves to be on your short list, but there are other ways to attack this game to gain exposure. 

For the Cardinals, I’m extremely intrigued by a stack of Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald. While both players are getting long in the tooth, there’s no need for that to impact our thinking in the first week of the season. The veterans are well-rested and ready to go, and this could prove to be one of the more fruitful stacks of Week 1 in a potentially high-scoring affair. Fitzgerald remains the clear cut number two option in the offense behind Johnson, and he’ll see plenty of targets in this one. One other option is swapping out Fitzgerald for John Brown in a stack with Palmer. This one is more of the boom-bust variety, but it could be a really big boom if Brown manages to go off. 
 
On the Lions side of the ball, stacks of Matthew Stafford with either Golden Tate or Marvin Jones are worthy of consideration. One other name to throw out there is preseason darling Kenny Golladay, who could prove to be a red-zone option for the Lions in 2017. He’s dirt cheap, and the salary savings offers up some serious flexibility for the rest of your lineup. That being said, he’s too risky of an option for cash games or for those that play single lineups.      
 
Justin Howe: I feel confident in my expectation that IND-LAR will be ugly, but also that it will favor the Rams noticeably. I can't project them to more than 21-24 points, but I foresee the Rams opening 2017 with a solid home win - and some juicy DFS value. With Scott Tolzien quarterbacking, the Colts will likely struggle to move the ball in any meaningful way, resulting in few fireworks and plenty of three-and-outs. That should set the Rams up nicely to (a) run the ball to their heart's content and dominate the game script, and (b) grind out a moderate lead throughout the second half. While Jared Goff should develop, if only a little, in his second year, I doubt much will be placed on his shoulders in such a cake matchup. Todd Gurley comes underpriced across the industry, and he should see gobs of volume against a woefully undermanned Colts front seven.

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