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Dynasty Trade Value Chart: June - Footballguys

Quantifying Long-Term Player Values for Dynasty Leagues

With most rookie drafts in the rearview mirror and little breaking news, June is one of the slowest months on the dynasty calendar. Thus, it is a good time to take a step back and try to look at dynasty values from a bigger-picture perspective. This month’s dynasty trade value chart will do so through the process of tiering. Breaking players into groups based on age, talent, position, and production can force you to challenge some pre-conceived notions about player value. 

For each tier, we will go into more depth on the most controversial inclusion into the tier and also evaluate the reasons why some other players missed the cut and instead fall into a lower tier.

After the tier breakdowns, you will find the full dynasty trade value charts for each position. The dynasty trade value chart is tailored specifically to a 12-team PPR league that starts one quarterback, two running backs, three wide receivers, one tight end and a flex. It is meant to serve primarily as a guide for trades but is also a great resource during startup drafts. If the players and picks on each side of the trade offer add up to approximately the same number, the trade should be considered even. If you receive a trade offer that sends you players with a higher total number value than the players you are giving up, it is a trade offer worth strongly considering. 

The Elite Young Running Backs

The top overall tier contains three elite running back talents who are each 23-years old or younger. High-scoring RB1 seasons are incredibly valuable in terms of points per game above replacement level and each of these backs has a great chance to pile up ultra-valuable fantasy production over the medium-term (and maybe even longer). 

It is hard to argue against Gurley as the top dynasty asset currently. He is coming off of a ridiculous 387-point fantasy season and locked into a great system with a young coach and young franchise quarterback. None of the wide receivers have the same realistic upside. While there is certainly a longevity argument to be made in favor of the wide receivers, it’s not enough to overcome the big projected scoring gap. Especially when Odell Beckham has had more injury issues in the pros than Gurley has. 

Controversial Choice? Saquon Barkley already residing in the elite tier will raise eyebrows for some. Understandable, since he has yet to take an NFL snap. However, he is going in the middle of the first round in redraft leagues and is 21-years old. Plus, anyone who has tried to trade for Barkley or the 1.01 rookie pick surely knows that in terms of trade value, Barkley comes with an astronomical price tag right now. 

Toughest Omission: Some might argue for Le'Veon Bell to be included in this tier. However, Bell’s age (26), career workload (1,541 regular season touches) and the uncertainty of his contractual situation in Pittsburgh make it much tougher to confidently project his productivity as far into the future as you can with the three younger backs. 

The Elite Young Wide Receivers

These two 25-year old stars have separated from the pack at the wide receiver position. Each is an elite option in the short-term, as evidenced by their first-round redraft ADP. Both have bright futures are being four full years younger than Antonio Brown puts them into a separate tier from the top older veterans. In terms of ranking the two against each other, the case for Beckham is that he has been more consistently productive when healthy. Hopkins has been more up and down. The case for Hopkins is that he is paired with an elite young franchise quarterback while Beckham is catching passes from a fading veteran on a team with no clear succession plan at the position. 

Controversial Choice? None. 

Toughest Omission: Michael Thomas and Mike Evans both have a case. They fit in nicely in terms of age. However, while both Beckham and Hopkins have multiple seasons of production the 300-330 point range, Thomas has yet to crack 260 points in any season. Plus, it is fair to wonder how much of his value is tied to playing with the 39-year old Drew Brees and if his production will dip when Brees retires. Evans does have one 300-point season under his belt. However, that was back in 2016 and is sandwiched between a pair of disappointing WR2 seasons. 

The Elite Mid-Prime Running Backs

At 26-years old, both Bell and Johnson are in their NFL prime. Over the medium-term (the next three seasons), there may not be two more productive or valuable fantasy players. In terms of trade value, dynasty owners can dream of getting seven or eight huge seasons from the younger backs but can’t do so with Bell and Johnson due to the three-plus year age difference. Thus, there is a solid gap in trade value between this duo and the three backs ranked above them. 

Controversial Choice? None. 

Toughest Omission: One could at least make the argument for Melvin Gordon III. However, in terms of both talent and fantasy production, Gordon isn’t at the same level as Bell and Johnson. Gordon will cede much of the valuable third-down snaps and passing-game opportunities to Austin Ekeler while Johnson and Bell will rarely leave the field. 

The Near-Elite Young Wide Receivers

Each of these four receivers will be either 25 or 26-years old in 2018 and are going off the board in the 2nd-round of redraft leagues. Each has at least one WR1 season under their belt and projects as the clear top receiving option in their own offense. All four will be catching passes from aggressive, gun-slinging quarterbacks. Dynasty owners should feel excited about having any of this group as their WR1 over the medium-term, and each is strong options in the late-1st or early-2nd round of dynasty startup drafts. 

Controversial Choice? Perhaps Davante Adams. He hasn’t necessarily been viewed as a super-premium dynasty asset in the past like Mike Evans has. However, there’s a good chance that Adams actually ends up being the most valuable player in this tier by midseason. In fact, he has the best chance to move from this tier all the way up into the elite tier alongside Beckham and Hopkins. Adams has somewhat quietly finished WR9 and WR13 the past two seasons and looks primed for much greater production with Jordy Nelson now in Oakland. Adams’ four-year extension signed in December will keep him tied to Aaron Rodgers for the next four years. 

Toughest Omission: None. There is a clear drop-off between this group and guys like Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill at the top of the next tier. 

The Running Back Class of 2017

The wide receiver class of 2014 (Beckham, Evans, Watkins, Landry, Robinson, Cooks, Adams, etc.) was a game-changer for the overall dynasty landscape and instantly buoyed the high-end depth at the position. The 2017 running back class has done the same for the running back position. To have six second-year backs each being selected in the first or second round of redraft leagues in unprecedented in recent memory. 

Ranking within the tier is extremely difficult. Christian McCaffrey looks locked into more of a committee role going forward. Thus, his ranking at the bottom of the tier. However, the same is probably true of Alvin Kamara though Kamara proved much more dynamic in the role. Dynasty owners are probably overreacting slightly to the news of Mark Ingram II’s four-game suspension and overestimating the impact it will have on Kamara’s touches but he still ranks at the top of this tier due to the fact that he is going off the board in the top-half of the first round in redraft leagues. 

Controversial Choice? None. 

Toughest Omission: None. Post-draft, there was a four-man tier with Fournette, McCaffrey, Mixon, and Cook. Kamara and Hunt quickly joined the group with monster rookie seasons. Perhaps Marlon Mack, Tarik Cohen, or Aaron Jones will make the leap in year two but it seems unlikely. 

The Late-Prime Elite Wide Receivers

Three of the best receivers of their generation are understandably grouped together due to age (each is 29, with Brown and Green turning 30-years old later this summer) and talent level. Brown has some separation from the other two in terms of dynasty value for obvious reasons. He has five straight Top-3 finishes at the wide receiver position, topping 300 points in each of the seasons. It is one of the most dominant five-year stretches in NFL history. 

If any of this trio can follow in the footsteps of players like Jerry Rice, Terrell Owens and Larry Fitzgerald and put together productive seasons well into his thirties, then he is undervalued right now. We have also seen top receivers like Calvin Johnson, Jordy Nelson, and Brandon Marshall go from the top of the heap to almost worthless in dynasty leagues seemingly overnight, which is a risk that cannot be ignored. 

This tier also is a great example of the difference between startup ADP and actual dynasty trade value. Brown has an ADP of 1.04, which is ahead of younger guys like Ezekiel Elliott and Saquon Barkley. However, good luck trying to trade him straight up for either of those players. Even turning Brown into one of the top 2017 class of backs like Alvin Kamara or Leonard Fournette is difficult in most leagues. 

Controversial Choice? None. A.J. Green is coming off of a slightly down year (WR10) by his standards but has a long track record of excellent fantasy production.

Toughest Omission: T.Y. Hilton has had some big seasons in the past and if there were fewer questions about Andrew Luck’s health might have a case. However, the reason this trio is considered elite is that Brown, Jones, and Green are such monster individual talents they aren’t reliant on having a top quarterback and would put up big numbers in any system and with just about anyone throwing them the ball. The same can’t be said for Hilton and some of the other veterans in the next tier down. 

The Melvin Gordon III Tier

Our first one player tier! Gordon isn’t productive or talented enough to fit in the elite tier of backs with Le'Veon Bell and David Johnson. Johnson put up 411 fantasy points in his last healthy season and Bell put up 345 points last season. Gordon’s career-high is 288 fantasy points. He simply doesn’t have the same upside as the top guys. However, he is still very productive, only 25-years old and likely to hold onto the lead role in a good Chargers offense for the foreseeable future. None of the veteran backs in the lower tier have the same combination of proven production and the near-guaranteed premium role that Gordon does. 

The Very Good Wide Receiver Tier

Our group of very good dynasty wide receivers is the deepest of the top tiers. It may make sense to think of this group as guys you would feel comfortable with as your dynasty squad’s WR2. The group ranges in age from 21 (JuJu Smith-Schuster) to 28 (T.Y. Hilton). Tyreek Hill, Adam Thielen, T.Y. Hilton and Stefon Diggs are each sitting right on the edge of WR1/WR2 ADP in redraft leagues and should stay in that range for the next few years at least. 

A big season could see some of these players bump up into the near-elite tier. Hill probably has the best odds but the arrival of Sammy Watkins could keep him from seeing enough targets to put up huge fantasy numbers. In a similar way, Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen limit each other’s upside slightly. Diggs is a free agent after the season and if Minnesota can’t afford to sign him, it would be a boost to both his stock and Thielen’s. 

Controversial Choice? Valuing Corey Davis this high is a projection. His rookie season was underwhelming though we certainly saw some flashes of the potential that made him a top-5 pick in the 2017 draft. His risk/reward profile fits in this tier. Speaking of risk/reward profiles, Josh Gordon’s is one of the most unique in the league. At one time, he was an elite talent. But the list of off-field issues and suspensions is a mile long and he didn’t look quite as sharp in his return last season. Gordon is only 27-years old but age isn’t the primary issue in terms of making a long-term projection for him. Gordon squeaks into this tier for now because all of the OTA reports have been positive and Gordon’s value is certainly trending upward. 

Toughest Omission: D.J. Moore doesn’t miss by much as the consensus top rookie wide receiver. However, he was a late-first rounder and might not be ticketed for a true lead-receiving role in an offense that also has Christian McCaffrey, Greg Olsen and Devin Funchess each likely to see in the neighborhood of 100 targets. Alshon Jeffery and Marvin Jones Jr don’t miss the cut by too much either.

The Elite Tight Ends

As expected, Rob Gronkowski’s retirement hints were mainly a ploy to force the Patriots to re-negotiate his below-market contract for the second time in as many offseasons. The window to buy low on Gronkowski is mostly closed. However, it is still worth checking in to see if his current owner is skittish about the possibility that Gronkowski retires in the next year or two and is willing to sell at a discount. 

Controversial Choice? None. 

Toughest Omission: The offseason hype was building slowly but steadily around Hunter Henry prior to his going down with an ACL injury. Dynasty owners are savvier than ever about not selling low on an injured young player, so his trade value doesn’t take a massive hit. But the injury is enough to keep him in the second-tier at the position for a least another season. 

The Elite Quarterbacks

Interestingly, three of the four at the top of the dynasty quarterback ranks ended the 2017 season on injured reserve. Watson and Wentz look to be on track to play either Week 1 or soon thereafter. Aside from re-injury, the biggest fantasy concern is whether the injuries will cause Watson and Wentz to try to stay in the pocket more, which would decrease their fantasy rushing production. Even if so, both have enough talent as pure passers to profile as long-term fantasy QB1s even without the extra rushing points. Rodgers is fully recovered from his second serious collarbone injury and talking about trying to play into his 40s. 

It is easy to get excited about owning one of these passers. However, their overall dynasty value remains depressed in one-quarterback leagues because of the tremendous depth at the position. Top veterans such as Tom Brady and Drew Brees refuse to fade away. Passers in their mid-30s like Ben Roethlisberger and Philip Rivers also have plenty left in the tank. Plus, we’ve seen a massive influx of good young prospects at the position in the last few drafts. 

Controversial Choice? None. 

Toughest Omission: Cam Newton’s rushing ability gives him serious upside and he was on the cusp of inclusion in this tier. He just misses because as he approaches 30-years old, it is fair to wonder if we start seeing him take off running less and less. Andrew Luck still isn’t throwing. At this point, we need to see him on the field and producing before considering him as a high-end dynasty asset. 

The Top Rookie Running Backs (minus Barkley)

There were seven rookie running backs drafted between #27 (Penny) and #71 (Freeman) overall and little consensus as to the order they should be drafted in the first round of rookie drafts. While actual rookie draft results are all over the place, the two most common picks at 1.02 are Rashaad Penny and Derrius Guice. As such, these two have slightly higher trade value than the rest. However, it is not surprising when Penny or Guice fall to 1.05 or 1.06, so you can somewhat throw ADP out the window when you are preparing for a late-starting rookie draft. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder with this class. 

In terms of early value movement, Guice and Penny seem to be generating positive buzz early in camp. Optimistic reports about Devontae Booker from beat writers may tamp down Royce Freeman’s value for the time being. In Cleveland, there is some talk that Duke Johnson Jr may end up with a long-term extension this summer. It would be interesting to see how much that would impact Nick Chubb’s dynasty value. The presence of Chris Thompson doesn’t seem to have hurt Guice’s stock as much as expected, so Johnson’s signing may not impact Chubb too much. In PPR leagues, the extent of the passing-game role each of these backs is able to carve out is going to go a long way toward determining their overall dynasty value and is an area worth focusing in on when reading OTA reports this summer. 

The Second-Tier Veteran Running Backs

Aside from LeSean McCoy, who falls to this tier due to age (30-years old), each of these backs is likely to end up in a committee to some extent. Jerick McKinnon tops the tier because he probably has the best chance to emerge as more of a full-time lead back. If McKinnon can live up to the offseason hype in a potentially excellent San Francisco offense, he could hop up into Melvin Gordon III’s tier. Kenyan Drake also has an opportunity to prove that he is worthy and able to carry a heavy load for a full season. 

One of the tougher parts of valuing the backs in this tier is that not only do they have to beat out their current competition. But they also have to prove they are good enough their teams don’t need to look for an early-round replacement in the near future. For example, Alex Collins seems to have the leg up on Kenneth Dixon and Javorius Allen in Baltimore. He’s only 23-years old, so the temptation is to pencil him in for quite a few years of production. However, to do so, we have to become more confident in his medium-term security. 

Devy enthusiasts know that David Montgomery, Rodney Anderson, Damien Harris, Cam Akers, D’Andre Swift, J.K. Dobbins, Jonathan Taylor and others are going to be entering the league in the next couple of years. Odds are some of them take the jobs of some of the guys listed above. 

The Second-Tier Veteran Wide Receivers

The depth of this tier is a big reason why it makes sense to break value ties against the top wide receivers and in favor of the top running backs in trades and in startup draft strategy. Without even using an early pick, one can grab veterans that have recently finished as WR1s (Marvin Jones Jr, Doug Baldwin, Larry Fitzgerald, Golden Tate, Demaryius Thomas) and also add high-upside youth that could develop into WR1s with patience (Kenny Golladay, Chris Godwin, Mike Williams, John Ross).

The Top Rookie Wide Receivers

In a bit of an anomaly compared to past years, none of the rookie wide receivers enter with an immediate top-20 dynasty wide receiver valuation. Moore is the closest at WR22. Calvin Ridley is joined by a big group of 2nd and 3rd round NFL draft choices with varying degrees of hype.

Positional Breakdowns

Quarterback

Rank
Pos
Name
2018
Future
Value
1
QB
4
10
14
2
QB
3
10
13
3
QB
4
8
12
4
QB
4
8
12
5
QB
3
6
9
6
QB
1
7
8
7
QB
2
5
7
8
QB
2
4
6
9
QB
2
4
6
10
QB
1
5
6
11
QB
1
5
6
12
QB
1
5
6
13
QB
1
5
6
14
QB
2
3
5
15
QB
1
4
5
16
QB
3
1
4
17
QB
2
2
4
18
QB
1
3
4
19
QB
1
3
4
20
QB
1
3
4
21
QB
0
4
4
22
QB
0
4
4
23
QB
1
2
3
24
QB
1
2
3
25
QB
0
3
3
26
QB
0
3
3
27
QB
1
1
2
28
QB
1
1
2
29
QB
1
1
2
30
QB
1
1
2
31
QB
0
2
2
32
QB
1
0
1
33
QB
1
0
1
34
QB
1
0
1
35
QB
0
1
1
36
QB
0
0
0
37
QB
A.J. McCarron
0
0
0
38
QB
0
0
0
39
QB
0
0
0
40
QB
0
0
0
41
QB
0
0
0

Running Back

Rank
Pos
Name
2018
Future
Value
1
RB
10
40
50
2
RB
9
39
48
3
RB
7
39
46
4
RB
Le\'Veon Bell
10
32
42
5
RB
9
30
39
6
RB
8
29
37
7
RB
7
26
33
8
RB
6
24
30
9
RB
5
22
27
10
RB
4
21
25
11
RB
4
19
23
12
RB
6
17
23
13
RB
3
17
20
14
RB
3
15
18
15
RB
2
15
17
16
RB
4
12
16
17
RB
1
14
15
18
RB
Ronald Jones
2
13
15
19
RB
4
10
14
20
RB
2
10
12
21
RB
3
9
12
22
RB
1
11
12
23
RB
3
8
11
24
RB
2
7
9
25
RB
3
5
8
26
RB
2
6
8
27
RB
2
6
8
28
RB
4
3
7
29
RB
2
5
7
30
RB
2
4
6
31
RB
3
3
6
32
RB
1
4
5
33
RB
1
4
5
34
RB
1
4
5
35
RB
2
3
5
36
RB
2
3
5
37
RB
2
2
4
38
RB
1
2
3
39
RB
1
2
3
40
RB
1
2
3
41
RB
1
2
3
42
RB
1
2
3
43
RB
1
2
3
44
RB
1
2
3
45
RB
1
2
3
46
RB
1
2
3
47
RB
2
1
3
48
RB
0
2
2
49
RB
0
2
2
50
RB
0
2
2
51
RB
1
1
2
52
RB
1
1
2
53
RB
1
1
2
54
RB
1
1
2
55
RB
1
1
2
56
RB
1
1
2
57
RB
0
1
1
58
RB
0
1
1
59
RB
0
1
1
60
RB
0
1
1
61
RB
0
1
1
62
RB
1
0
1
63
RB
1
0
1

Wide Receiver

Rank
Pos
Name
2018
Future
Value
1
WR
Odell Beckham
8
38
46
2
WR
8
38
46
3
WR
7
29
36
4
WR
9
26
35
5
WR
5
30
35
6
WR
7
25
32
7
WR
6
24
30
8
WR
6
22
28
9
WR
6
16
22
10
WR
4
16
20
11
WR
4
16
20
12
WR
3
16
19
13
WR
3
16
19
14
WR
3
15
18
15
WR
3
15
18
16
WR
4
13
17
17
WR
3
13
16
18
WR
4
11
15
19
WR
2
13
15
20
WR
3
11
14
21
WR
2
12
14
22
WR
1
10
11
23
WR
3
7
10
24
WR
3
7
10
25
WR
2
8
10
26
WR
2
7
9
27
WR
1
7
8
28
WR
0
7
7
29
WR
2
5
7
30
WR
2
5
7
27
WR
2
5
7
28
WR
2
5
7
29
WR
2
5
7
30
WR
2
5
7
31
WR
2
5
7
32
WR
2
5
7
33
WR
1
5
6
34
WR
1
5
6
35
WR
2
4
6
36
WR
2
4
6
37
WR
1
5
6
38
WR
1
5
6
39
WR
1
5
6
40
WR
1
5
6
41
WR
1
5
6
42
WR
3
2
5
43
WR
3
2
5
44
WR
2
3
5
45
WR
2
3
5
46
WR
2
3
5
47
WR
Donte Pettis
1
4
5
48
WR
0
5
5
49
WR
0
5
5
50
WR
0
5
5
51
WR
2
2
4
52
WR
2
2
4
53
WR
1
3
4
54
WR
1
3
4
55
WR
1
3
4
56
WR
1
3
4
57
WR
Cam Meredith
1
3
4
58
WR
1
3
4
59
WR
1
3
4
60
WR
1
3
4
61
WR
0
4
4
62
WR
1
2
3
63
WR
1
2
3
64
WR
1
2
3
65
WR
1
2
3
66
WR
0
3
3
67
WR
0
3
3
68
WR
0
3
3
69
WR
1
1
2
70
WR
0
2
2
71
WR
0
2
2
72
WR
0
1
1

Tight End

Rank
Pos
Name
2018
Future
Value
1
TE
5
15
20
2
TE
6
12
18
3
TE
3
12
15
4
TE
4
10
14
5
TE
0
10
10
6
TE
1
7
8
7
TE
1
6
7
8
TE
0
6
6
9
TE
3
2
5
10
TE
3
2
5
11
TE
1
3
4
12
TE
1
3
4
13
TE
1
3
4
14
TE
1
3
4
15
TE
1
3
4
16
TE
0
4
4
17
TE
2
1
3
18
TE
0
3
3
19
TE
2
0
2
20
TE
1
1
2
21
TE
1
1
2
22
TE
1
1
2
23
TE
0
2
2
24
TE
0
2
2
25
TE
1
0
1
26
TE
1
0
1
27
TE
1
0
1
28
TE
0
1
1
29
TE
0
1
1
30
TE
0
1
1
31
TE
0
1
1