Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 10-31-15, 7:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 10 (20 teams)
Miami at Duke
Kickoff: 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Duke -12.5
O/U: 50
Duke
Team Expected Points: 31.25
QB – Thomas Sirk – 7,700
Analysis: The Miami defense has now given up at least 20 points to every FBS team this season, ranked 78th overall in yards per game. While Duke’s offense is not necessarily labelled explosive, they have some upside here against the reeling Hurricanes. Thomas Sirk carried the offense last week with his 270 passing yards with 4 touchdowns and 109 rushing yards. Sirk is a true dual threat option as he leads the team in carries and rushing yards.
Recommendation: Sirk is a cheaper quarterback option with solid upside from his rushing ability. He is a great value to be considered in both cash and tournament formats.
RB – Shaquille Powell – 4,700
Analysis: While the Duke offense can be rather unpredictable with their use of the running back committee, Shaquille Powell should still be first in line for carries. He has only scored on the ground in one game this season, but Powell can contribute with his hands as he has caught at least 3 passes in 4 of their 7 games this season. The Miami defense was gashed last week by Clemson, so we certainly could see Duke having some success in all areas of the game here.
Recommendation: Powell is worth a flyer at near-minimum price this week, but more so in tournaments rather than cash game formats.
Miami
Team Expected Points: 18.75
This Miami program is in disarray right now after suffering their worst loss in school history, firing their coach, and potentially losing their quarterback Brad Kaaya for this next game. Backup QB Malik Rosier (5,500) is in line for the start. Rosier gave us nothing to be excited about after completing only 7 of 22 passes with 2 interceptions in his relief appearance against Clemson. Duke has an impressive defensive unit, so we will have to avoid this matchup all together.
Vanderbilt at Houston
Kickoff: 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Houston -11
O/U: 50
Vanderbilt
Team Expected Points: 19.5
The Vanderbilt offense is one to be avoided this season, as they have not moved the ball well at all. RB Ralph Webb (6,000) has been their most reliable fantasy option; however, he is priced above where we think he should be this week, especially considering the uncharacteristically low total in this game.
Houston
Team Expected Points: 30.5
Houston faces its toughest challenge of the season this week against the 17th ranked Vanderbilt defense. This will be the first SEC team that Houston faces, and while Vanderbilt is certainly not known for their offensive prowess, they have played solid defense against some good teams this season. The Commodores have allowed the 11th fewest rushing touchdowns this season (5), which does not bode well for the upside of guys like RB Kenneth Farrow (7,900) or QB Greg Ward Jr (10,000). Of those 5 touchdowns, only 1 of them was a quarterback rush. Ward makes most of his fantasy points with his legs, so if his touchdowns are limited as we saw last week, it will be tough for him to pay off his salary.
Recommendation: Both Ward and Farrow are most certainly in play for GPP’s due to the caliber of their offense, but in this matchup, we have to avoid them for the purpose of cash games as their prices are outrageously high given the matchup downside.
Texas at Iowa State
Kickoff: 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Texas -4
O/U: 52
Texas
Team Expected Points: 28
RB – Johnathan Gray – 5,500, D’Onta Foreman – 4,500
Analysis: The Texas offense has not exactly lit up the scoreboard in recent weeks, but we have certainly seen a firm commitment to the running game. As a team, the Longhorns have rushed 111 times for 587 yards compared to only 28 pass attempts for 154 yards in their last 2 games. This matchup against Iowa State comes at a great time as we are seeing Texas build up some momentum. The Iowa State defense is ranked 114th in the nation, allowing 187 rushing yards per game. Jonathan Gray is the starter, having rushed at least 15 times in each of his past 3 games. Gray had his best game of the season last week as he finally eclipsed the century mark in yards, averaging a season high 5.7 yards per carry. D’Onte Foreman is a close second as he has put up some huge numbers in recent weeks, but his lack of usage in the last 2 games combined with his nagging toe injury give us more faith in Gray than Foreman. While both running backs’ upside is limited by quarterback Jarrod Heard rushing 15-20 times per game, they are priced at a point where we can certainly put them in consideration.
Recommendation: Johnathan Gray is at a very nice price point considering his 20+ carry upside this week—consider him an excellent play for both cash and tournament formats. D’Onta Foreman’s minimum price makes him an enticing GPP play as he has some explosive upside from what we’ve seen twice this season.
QB – Jarrod Heard – 6,700
Analysis: Jarrod Heard is now averaging 4.8 yards per carry as he has rushed as many times as he has passed (102) this season. Heard goes to his legs early and often, as he leads all Power 5 quarterbacks in scramble yards with 321. Touchdowns have not come easy to Texas this year, but a matchup against Iowa State’s porous defense certainly presents some upside for everyone.
Recommendation: Heard comes in at a bargain basement price this week, which is surprising considering how much upside he has with his rushing ability. Heard tops out list from a value perspective this week, making him an excellent play in all formats, but particularly GPP’s as his ceiling is high.
Iowa State
Team Expected Points: 24
RB – Mike Warren – 6,600
Analysis: Iowa State’s Mike Warren has the workload we look for in any fantasy running back. Warren has carried the ball over 20 times in 4 of his last 5 games, amassing an impressive 769 yards during that stretch. The only issue we have with Warren is his very scarce touchdown numbers, with only 3 all season. Having rushed for that many yards, we would have expected much bigger touchdown numbers from him.
Recommendation: Mike Warren is priced up considering how infrequent he gets in the end zone. He is in play for GPP’s only due to his usage / yardage upside, as we are seeing other guys out there with more reliable red zone usage to consider.
WR – Allen Lazard – 5,800
Analysis: Lazard is the WR1 for Iowa State’s offense, and he is coming off his best performance of the season with an impressive 147 yards and 1 touchdown from 5 receptions. He has been a consistent go-to option for this offense all season, so with this looking to be a close game, we could see Lazard having a nice day.
Recommendation: While Lazard’s usage is not extremely high, his price is not bad considering the lack of options we have at the wide receiver position on this slate. We would not mind Lazard in any format.
Michigan at Minnesota
Kickoff: 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Michigan -13
O/U: 38
Michigan
Team Expected Points: 25.5
RB – De’Veon Smith – 6,100
Analysis: Smith is the workhorse back of the Wolverine offense. Take out a tough matchup against Northwestern, and Smith would be averaging over 17 carries per game. While we have seen huge variance in his yardage totals and touchdowns, the workload is there as Harbaugh is not afraid to let Smith pound the rock. He had a couple of touchdown runs called back in their last game, so look for the end zone opportunities to come soon enough. While Minnesota is ranked in the top half against the rush, they did allow the feature backs of both Nebraska and Northwestern to rush for over 100 yards each this season.
Recommendation: We are projecting Smith as an excellent play this week, one of the top values at his position considering the depressed price due to this low O/U. All it will take is 75 yards and a touchdown for Smith to pay off.
Minnesota
Team Expected Points: 12.5
Minnesota has one of the lowest Team Expected Points of the week as they face one of the country’s best defensive units. Avoid the Golden Gophers.
Oregon State at Utah
Kickoff: 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Utah -27
O/U: 53
Oregon State
Team Expected Points: 13
Oregon State faces a Utah team ready to blow off some steam after suffering their first loss of the season to USC last week. With a blowout on the horizon and Oregon State sporting one of the lowest team totals on the slate, we are fading their offense entirely.
Utah
Team Expected Points: 40
RB – Devontae Booker – 9,000
Analysis: Utah is expected to score early and often in what shapes up to be blowout over Oregon State this week. Devontae Booker is poised to take full advantage of this situation as we expect Utah to run the ball often as they have done all year when protecting a lead. Booker has rushed 30+ times twice already while contributing heavily in the passing game with at least 4 receptions in 5 of their 7 games this season. Oregon State’s rushing defense is in the bottom half allowing nearly 200 yards per game, so we look for Booker to roll in this solid matchup and situation. The only concern would be a late game benching before he can truly pay off his top dollar salary.
Recommendation: While the blowout risk is there, Booker is an extremely safe play for a solid score. He is the safest running back play of the week, excellent in all formats.
QB – Travis Wilson – 7,300
Analysis: Wilson has proven to be a dual threat option for most of this season as he has passed for over 200 yards in 4 of his 6 games played while averaging 40 net rushing yards per game with 3 rushing touchdowns this season. Wilson has a tough passing matchup this week, but that actually may boost his fantasy value as he may have opportunities to use his legs here. We do expect the ground game to dominate, but Wilson could be good for a few early scores or quick screen plays to pad his fantasy score.
Recommendation: We would only lightly expose ourselves to Wilson in GPP formats in hopes that he has a big rushing day, as there are other safer options at the position tonight.
Tulane at Memphis
Kickoff: 7:00 PM EST
Spread: Memphis -30.5
O/U: 63.5
Tulane
Team Expected Points: 16.5
WR – Teddy Veal – 4,900
Analysis: The Memphis passing defense has been up and down this season, but mostly down as they now rank dead last in the FBS. While Tulane’s passing offense is far from prolific, Teddy Veal has 13 more receptions than any other option in their receiving core. Tulane will be forced to pass often as they expect to be losing all day, so Veal should be in for plenty of targets to help pay off his inexpensive salary.
Recommendation: I like Veal as a nice fill-in at the receiver position this week. He is not a shoe-in for cash game lineups, but definitely a solid punt option to consider in both cash and tournament due to his near-minimum price and premium matchup.
Memphis
Team Expected Points: 47
QB – Paxton Lynch – 10,000
Analysis: Paxton Lynch has been getting it done week in and week out with his prolific passing ability that has kept Memphis undefeated on the season. Lynch has eclipsed over 300 yards and 2 touchdowns in 6 straight games, averaging 328 yards per game and a 72% completion rate. HE almost broke 400 yards with 3 touchdowns against an SEC defense a couple weeks ago, so we can only imagine what Lynch will do to Tulane’s mediocre squad this week. As 30+ point favorites, Lynch is on blowout watch for sure, however with as bad as his defense has played, Lynch typically sees plenty of minutes late into games.
Recommendation: Don’t let the 5-figure salary scare you off here. Lynch is the safest quarterback play on the board this week, good for all formats.
WR – Sam Craft – 5,300
Analysis: Sam Craft now has 7 touchdowns on the year, tied for the most on the team. He contributes mainly as a running back, however Craft is used in a variety of manners throughout the game. He would be a very sneaky play as production is spread between a ton of contributors in this offense, but we like him for his salary and value proposition in what should be a high scoring game for the Tigers.
Recommendation: Craft will be a GPP only play with the touchdown upside needed to handily exceed his value threshold.
Tennessee at Kentucky
Kickoff: 7:30 PM EST
Spread: Tennessee -9
O/U: 56.5
Tennessee
Team Expected Points: 32.75
QB - Joshua Dobbs – 8,200
Analysis: Joshua Dobbs has to be licking his chops coming into this week against a Kentucky team that was thrashed by dual-threat quarterback Dak Prescott last week. Prescott accounted for 6 of their 7 touchdowns on the day, with 3 on the ground behind 117 rushing yards and 3 through the air behind 348 passing yards. We know Josh Dobbs has the talent to put up these kind of numbers because he has done it once already 3 weeks ago against Georgia. While Dobbs has rushed for at least 89 yards in 3 games this season, he has failed to eclipse a net of 20 rushing yards in the other 4 contests. This inconsistency is definitely concerning; however, we still think he is in a great spot this week.
Recommendation: Dobbs is priced a full tier below the top options here, making it easier to stomach him if paying up for one of the premium running backs. However, his inconsistency rushing the ball combined with the inability to pass effectively takes Dobbs off our radar for cash game consideration. With that said, he has as high of a ceiling as any quarterback on the slate, making him an excellent play in tournament formats.
RB – Jalen Hurd – 6,500
Analysis: Jalen Hurd has seen a massive workload all season long as he is averaging over 20 carries and nearly 100 yards per game with 9 touchdowns this season. The Vols offense revolves around the running game, so expect Hurd to be used very often this week as Tennessee may be tightly holding on to a close lead this week.
Recommendation: Hurd’s price is very reasonable considering his workload. Feel free to pay for him in all formats.
Kentucky
Team Expected Points: 23.75
RB – Stanley Boom Williams – 6,300
Analysis: Williams plays a huge part in the Kentucky offense as their key contributor in the rushing game. Williams has rushed for 208 yards over his past 2 games while contributing steadily in the passing game all season with 11 total receptions. While touchdowns are scarce (3 on the year), he does have over 100 yards for scrimmage in 4 of their 6 games this season. The Tennessee defense played great against Alabama last week, but we have seen them get gashed in multiple ways this season.
Recommendation: Williams represents a decent value this week, but is honestly someone we would not gain too much exposure to since he isn’t scoring as many touchdowns as we’d like this year.
Notre Dame at Temple
Kickoff: 8:00 PM EST
Spread: Notre Dame -10
O/U: 51
Notre Dame
Team Expected Points: 30.5
The Notre Dame offense has been rolling in their last couple of games, but they face a very tough test this week against Temple’s outstanding defense ranked 9th in the FBS in defensive efficiency. They are extremely tough to run on, so we expect RB CJ Prosise (9,200) to be far too limited to pay off his steep salary. WR Will Fuller (7,400) has scored at least 1 touchdown in 6 of his 7 games this season, but with Deshone Kizer at quarterback, Fuller’s upside is far too limited to consider—especially in this matchup.
Temple
Team Expected Points: 20.5
This matchup is one of the biggest in school history as it is the first ranked game ever played by the Temple Owls. Temple’s offense is led by a power running game that we are certain Notre Dame will expect coming on. RB Jahad Thomas (8,700) has rushed for 822 yards and 12 touchdowns this season with at least 1 touchdown in every game and 2 games within 10 yards of the 200-yard mark. He is averaging over 23 carries per game, so the workload upside is certainly there. What worries us however is the way we expect this game to flow, as it will be one of the first times Temple plays a competent offense in a game where they are expected to struggle keeping up. We are projecting Thomas to fall victim to this unfavorable game flow as he struggles to pay off his top tier salary.
Stanford at Washington State
Kickoff: 10:30 PM EST
Spread: Stanford -10.5
O/U: 61.5
Stanford
Team Expected Points: 36
QB- Kevin Hogan – 7,600
Analysis: Kevin Hogan has been very consistent for most of this season. He has now thrown for multiple touchdowns in each of his last 6 games with a 14-3 TD-INT ration in that stretch. Hogan is a solid game manager who we can usually count on for a solid performance on a weekly basis. Washington State’s defense is allowing 31 points per game. While they are much more relaxed against the run, Hogan should still find some room to pass for a touchdown or two as he is expected to lead the Cardinals to their 7th straight win.
Recommendation: Hogan comes in near the top of our projections in terms of value. He is a great cash game quarterback as his price is very reasonable while his performance should be very consistent. We would tend to avoid someone like Hogan in GPP’s however, as he never seems to put up huge fantasy scores.
RB – Christian McCaffrey – 9,400
Analysis: Christian McCaffrey is showing us why he should be considered as one of the best running backs in the country with his recent performances. In his last 5 games, McCaffrey is averaging 165 yards per game with 7 total touchdowns and at least 1 reception in each game. His last 2 games have been his best of the season, and he is now facing Washington State’s 105th ranked rushing defense allowing over 200 yards per game. We expect McCaffrey to easily continue his streak of 100+ yard games and find the end zone at least once here.
Recommendation: McCaffrey’s recent success and premium matchup have really bolstered his salary, making him the highest priced running back on the slate. While he is certainly one of the safest options out there, we would rather pay up for someone like Booker if picking between the two. Definitely get some exposure, but no need to go all in on McCaffrey here with other values on the board as well.
TE- Austin Hooper- 4,100
Analysis: Austin Hooper is coming off yet another solid performance with 3 receptions for 50 yards and another touchdown. He is a go-to target for red zone looks in passing situations, but the Cougars defense is much stronger against the pass than the run, so Hooper’s opportunities may be limited.
Recommendation: Hooper is the priciest tight end on the board, but worth paying up for in cash games if you have the salary. While his ceiling may not be sky high, he has been the epitome of consistency at this position in recent weeks.
Washington State
Team Expected Points: 25.5
Washington State’s offense finds themselves in a very tough spot this week against the Stanford defense that has limited them to only 17 points in each of their last 2 matchups. Despite this immense downgrade in matchup from last week, everyone’s price has held relatively flat or even increased. We do not like this from a value perspective, and thus will have to avoid the majority of this offense in cash games. WR Gabe Marks (7,900) is the top option at his position as he exploded for 4 touchdowns last week. He would most certainly be in play for GPP formats, but we feel this slate warrants money spend on the running backs more so than wide receivers.
Arizona at Washington
Kickoff: 11:00 PM EST
Spread: Washington -4.5
O/U: 58
Arizona
Team Expected Points: 26.8
With the controversy at quarterback and injury issues at running back, we are electing to avoid the Arizona offense this week.
Washington
Team Expected Points: 31.25
The Washington offense is loaded with plays this week as they face Arizona’s atrocious defensive unit. The Arizona defense is not playing very well at all this year, as their secondary has been gashed on multiple occasion making them the 118th worst passing defense in the country. QB Jake Browning (6,000) has been nowhere near prolific this season, but we expect he should find some room to throw in this matchup if healthy enough to take the reins. WR Jaydon Mickens (4,500) is a nice minimum priced option to consider despite his lack of yardage totals and touchdowns this season. The matchup is great for any receiver in this offence, putting Mickens immediately in consideration. TE Joshua Perkins (3,200) should also be set to benefit from this great matchup, as he has been one of the most productive tight ends in football despite his lack of red zone usage. RB Dwayne Washington (4,500) may not get many rushing yards on a regular basis, but his usage in the passing game also puts him in consideration as he is consistently catching multiple balls per game while carrying for 4-8 times on average.
Recommendation: We would primarily consider Browning and Mickens as tournament options, as they have huge upside but also relatively low floors. Joshua Perkins is our top play of the week at tight end when you factor in his cost savings over Hooper. Dwayne Washington would be someone we have the lease exposure to here.
QB – Jake Browning – 6,000
Recommendation: Look for Browning to have some nice upside as a solid punt play in all formats at the position.
WR – Jaydon Mickens – 3,900, Joshua Perkins – 3,500
Analysis: Mickens and Perkins both grade out as solid values this week in this solid matchup against Arizona’s soft pass defense. Neither have broken the century mark in yardage this season, but if there was ever a game to do it, this would be the one as we expect it to be back and forth. Touchdowns have also come at a premium for both of these guys as each only has 1 on the year. Even without the touchdowns, Perkins is one of the most productive tight ends in football this season.
Recommendation: A GPP stack of either of these guys with Browning could pay huge dividends, however neither of them have shown the true upside to be heavily considered for any format outside of a cash game punt.
