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Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 10-24-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 15 (30 teams)
Auburn at Arkansas
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Arkansas -6.5
O/U: 51
Auburn
Team Expected Points: 22.25
The Tigers offense is extremely dysfunctional, with RB Peyton Barber (7,700) the only guy worth considering. He draws a tough matchup against the 15th ranked Arkansas rushing defense allowing only 107 yards per game, so he will be a GPP play only due to his 25+ carry upside.
Arkansas
Team Expected Points: 27.75
RB – Alex Collins – 8,000
Analysis: While Alex Collins had a rough time in his last outing, let’s realize that he was facing the best defense in the country in Alabama. Collins only carried 12 times for 26 yards, however in his previous 3 games he carried 26+ times for 150+ yards and at least 1 touchdown. Auburn has been disappointing all around this season, especially on defense as they are allowing nearly 200 rushing yards per game. Stanley Williams of Kentucky averaged over 7 yards per carry for 2 touchdowns last week against Auburn, so Alex Collins coming off a bye is most certainly primed for success.
Recommendation: Collins is an outstanding play in all formats. While you will have to pay up for him, he is at the top of our projections at the position the running back position in this slate.
QB – Brandon Allen – 6,700
Analysis: Brandon Allen has been a mediocre, yet consistent quarterback all season long, especially over the last 4 games as he has revolved around 15 fantasy points per game. He may not have much upside in this rush-first offense, but his matchup is solid and price is low this week.
Recommendation: Collins is a great value at the position due to his price and matchup against a weak Auburn defense. While he is a bit risky for us in cash games, feel free to get some tournament exposure.
WR – Hunter Henry – 3,000
Analysis: Henry has seen consistent receptions all season outside of his last matchup against a tough Crimson Tide defense. Arkansas will have much more success this week against Auburn, so look for Henry to be more involved.
Recommendation: Henry rises above the other options at this 3,000 price range. If you can’t pay up for Mills but don’t need to punt at minimum price, Henry will serve as your best option in any format.
Clemson at Miami
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Clemson -7
O/U: 54.5
Clemson
Team Expected Points: 30.75
QB – Deshaun Watson – 9,400
Analysis: Deshaun Watson finally had that big game we were looking for in his last outing, and he did it against one of the country’s best defenses in Boston College. Watson passed for over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns while rushing for 32 yards and another touchdown on the ground. Watson is an elite caliber player with the potential to carry his team when needed. Clemson is only a touchdown favorite in this decent matchup against a Miami offense that also has the potential to put up points, so we expect him to have some great upside this week.
Recommendation: Watson definitely has potential this week, but projects out as more of a GPP play than cash games due to the other safer options you can pay up for here. Look to stack Watson in tournaments with his favorite target WR Artavis Scott (6,600) who also had a career game last week hauling in 10 receptions for 162 yards and a touchdown.
RB – Wayne Gallman – 6,500
Analysis: We saw Gallman struggle last week, but understandably so against Boston College’s absolutely elite rushing defense. In his 3 games prior, Gallman rushed over 100 yards each time out. He has only found the end zone in half of his games this season, but we see Gallman primed for a bounce back week against the Miami defense that allowed 222 yards to Dalvin Cook and over 6 yards per carry to Virginia Tech’s freshman running back Travon McMillian last week.
Recommendation: Gallman’s price is down, making him a nice way in for exposure to the Clemson offense. The play is not outstanding, but he has the potential to pay off and allows is definitely an option to differentiate at the position.
Miami
Team Expected Points: 23.75
QB – Brad Kaaya – 7,800
Analysis: Brad Kaaya has put up consistent passing yardage this season while only giving up 1 interception, but his lack of rushing ability really limits his upside compared to many other quarterbacks out there. This matchup is a tough one as Clemson rolls out an elite secondary led by Mackenzie Alexander, one of the best cornerbacks in the country. They are allowing just under 170 passing yards per game this season, so even though Kaaya will be forced to keep up, we will most certainly be more likely to cough up a rare interception or two this week.
Recommendation: Kaaya is not priced where we’d like to see him this week—avoid him as this entire offense does not grade out well for us.
Houston at Central Florida
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Houston -21.5
O/U: 57
Houston
Team Expected Points: 39.25
The Houston offense is loaded with potential targets this week as they face a 0-7 UCF team that has yet to play nearly as explosive of an offense as they will see in the Cougars. QB Greg Ward Jr. (10,600) leads the charge as the 2nd highest scoring fantasy quarterback in college football. Ward had yet to dip below 30 fantasy points in a single game this season as he constantly flirts with 100 yards rushing while putting up extremely consistent passing yards with multi-touchdown upside in all facets of the game. Ward’s favorite target WR Demarcus Ayers (7,700) continued to impress last week with 6 receptions for 93 yards and a rushing touchdown. Ayers has yet to dip below 6 targets in a game this season. While passing touchdowns have come at a premium in the last 3 weeks (Ayers has 0), he still provides plenty of target upside in addition to an encouraging usage in the rushing game which could prove to have upside as we saw last week. RB Kenneth Farrow (6,700) had a tough outing against Tulane last week as he missed out on the end zone due to Ward’s rushing dominance. This is typical as Greg Ward Jr dominates the rushing game at Houston, but Farrow certainly has the talent to put up a big game here and there.
Recommendation: While we love to praise Greg Ward Jr. for what he has done thus far, this week we are not projecting him high enough to justify his enormous salary over someone like Seth Russell. While he is always in consideration, this may be the week to yield to other options. Demarcus Ayers would be a decent route for exposure as his price is more reasonable, but we still are down overall on the Houston offense this week.
Central Florida
Team Expected Points: 17.75
With Central Florida averaging only 15.7 points per game, we are not overly interested in any fantasy options here. QB Justin Holman (5,500) is an intriguing punt play as he is one of the cheapest quarterbacks on the slate in a game from which they will be playing from behind. Houston’s defense can be scored on, we don’t mind Holman in GPP formats if it allows you to spend elsewhere.
Iowa State at Baylor
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Baylor -37
O/U: 78
Iowa State
Team Expected Points: 20.5
Iowa State is most definitely going through a rough patch as they face the #2 team in the country right on the heels of their 45-21 loss to #3 TCU last week. WR Allen Lazard (6,100) actually had his best game of the season last week against TCU with 5 receptions for 147 yards, including a 74-yard touchdown catch. We think this performance was a bit of an outlier though, making it tough to pay the price for Lazard this week.
Baylor
Team Expected Points: 57.5
Baylor continues to trample opponents with no signs of slowing down this record-breaking offense. Even against a decent West Virginia defense, we saw Baylor still put up 60+ yet again this season bringing their points per game up to 63.8. QB Seth Russell (10,800) is the highest scoring fantasy quarterback in college football, which rightfully earns him the top spot in terms of salary this week. Russell absolutely exploded for the best fantasy performance of his career as he threw for 380 yards and 5 touchdowns while rushing for 160 yards and another touchdown. These are epic numbers, and we are in no position to say he can’t repeat them on a weekly basis. The one thorn in Russell’s side is that he doesn’t run the ball nearly as much when games are not close at halftime—so with Baylor coming in a 37 point favorite over the 112th ranked Iowa State defense, we see Russell’s rushing upside limited.
WR Corey Coleman (9,600) is having a record-breaking season as he is on pace for nearly 30 touchdowns. Coleman owns the red zone for this Baylor team as he alone has hauled in half of the team’s touchdowns through the air. He has exceeded 100 yards in every contest this year and remains an absolutely elite option, always in play.
RB Shock Linwood (7,900) should be in store for a bounce back this week as we project Russell to lay off the rushing here. Linwood has put up big points this season, especially when Baylor jumps out to a more comfortable lead in the first half. With at least 1 touchdown in every game since Week 1 along with 130+ yards in weeks 2-6, we see Linwood as a great way to get cheaper exposure to Baylor this week as his price is about as discounted as you may see this year.
Recommendation: Everyone on Baylor is in play, with Russell and Coleman top options at their position. While both are the most expensive plays at their positions, each will be very highly owned and tough to fade in cash games—especially Coleman as he is becoming as close to a must-play as we have seen with his record-breaking season thus far. The other receivers are in play if looking for exposure, but none have the upside of Coleman. Shock Linwood is a cheaper option to get exposure, but does not grade out extremely well in terms of value in our projections as there are other guys with a more concrete workload expected.
Northwestern at Nebraska
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Nebraska -7.5
O/U: 51
Northwestern
Team Expected Points: 21.5
Northwestern is fresh off a couple of bad losses to solid opponents as they visit Nebraska as a 7+ point underdog this week. RB Justin Jackson (5,400) has really struggled in his last couple of matchups, averaging a combined 2.5 yards per carry with 0 touchdowns. His outlook does not improve much this week as Nebraska is allowing the 7th fewest rushing yards per game this season at only 91. Jackson could be considered in tournaments only due to his very cheap salary, but other than that we are avoiding Northwestern yet again this week.
Nebraska
Team Expected Points: 29
We would usually say Nebraska is in a very tough spot when we see they are facing Northwestern, but recent history seems to suggest otherwise as the Northwestern defense has been just obliterated for 872 yards and 78 points over the last 2 weeks. A good chunk of that yardage has been on the ground, especially last week as Northwestern allowed Iowa running back Akrum Wadley to rush for 204 yards and 4 touchdowns out of absolutely nowhere (previously rushed 8 times for 35 yards this season). RB Terrell Newby (6,500) had a great game last week rushing for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns against Minnesota, so we could see him as a sneaky, yet still risky play at the position this week. QB Tommy Armstrong (8,200) is another guy we could go for as he has plenty of rushing upside—however he has been fairly inconsistent this season making him tough to roll with at that price as our quarterback.
Toledo at Massachusetts
Kickoff: 3:00 PM EST
Spread: Toledo -14
O/U: 62.5
Toledo
Team Expected Points: 38.25
Toledo has been playing very well lately as they are now ranked in the top 20 sporting a 6-0 record so far this season. Toledo is a 2-touchdown favorite here, so they are certainly expected to put up some points. Despite that, the only guy we would feel relatively comfortable playing would be QB Phillip Ely (7,100). We saw Ely throw 4 touchdown passes last week, and he is in a great spot here facing 103rd ranked Massachusetts pass defense. While he is not the safest of plays for cash game consideration, he will be a solid under-owned tournament option to provide salary relief this week. RB Terry Swanson (5,700) has seen some huge plays in his last couple of games, breaking off an 88 and 90 yard touchdown run in each. While his carries should be down with the expected 3-way split, Swanson could be worth a dart throw in GPP formats due to this big-play upside—especially with Toledo averaging 202 rushing yards per game and Massachusetts allowing an FBS 118th 230 rushing yards each game.
Massachusetts
Team Expected Points: 24.25
With mass speculation that QB Blake Frohnapfel (7,000) has an elbow injury hampering his ability to throw, we are forced to second guess the Massachusetts offense this week. We saw Kent State shut them down to only 10 points last week as Frohnapfel completed only 51.5% of his 33 pass attempts for 171 yards and 1 interception. This was Frohnapfel’s worst performance since facing Notre Dame, which is on another level than Kent State in terms of defensive talent. While the coach denied any injury concerns, be aware and keep an eye on the news before game time. We have assumed he is healthy and are projecting him to perform well here. WR Tajae Sharpe (7,500) is his go-to option, but he is priced up relatively high to consider as a solid value this week. TE Rodney Mills (4,000) is our top guy at the position with his heavy utilization in the Minutemen passing attack. While there are some great punts at tight end this week, Mills should be the highest owned tight end, making him your bread and butter option to pay up for in cash games.
Recommendation: Frohnapfel is very cheap, so barring any injury concerns he makes for a great value to save salary at the position this week. We think Tajae Sharpe is fairly overpriced, while Rodney Mills a chalk play at tight end.
Kansas at Oklahoma State
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma State -34.5
O/U: 59
Kansas
Team Expected Points: 13
We aren’t interested in the Jayhawks’ struggling offense against dangerous Oklahoma State defense ranked 2nd in sacks and 5th in fumbles recovered this season.
Oklahoma State
Team Expected Points: 47.5
Oklahoma State is expected to roll as they are 33 point favorites over Kansas. Prices are down here, as we see QB Mason Rudolph (7,000) come in relatively cheap. Rudolph had a big game against the other Kansas team a couple weeks ago, and he has a very juicy matchup against a bad Kansas defense. The only concern would be benching in the second half as this game gets out of hand.
WR Marcell Ateman (5,000) and WR David Glidden (5,600) are both very cheap options in this matchup. While Ateman may be more of a WR2, he has still scored 3 touchdowns this season with a nice 6-reception 101 yard game against Kansas State 2 weeks ago. Glidden leads the team in receptions but has not found the end zone since week 3 this season. Either way however, both Ateman and Glidden are in great spots in this matchup.
Recommendation: We would recommend limiting your exposure to Rudolph due to the blowout factor along with other safer options to pay up for at his position. Both Ateman and Glidden can be considered, with Ateman more of a value and less of a risk for early benching.
Duke at Virginia Tech
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Virginia Tech -2.5
O/U: 43.5
Duke
Team Expected Points: 20.5
Duke is in a tough spot against Virginia Tech this week. Even with the Hokies defense banged up, they still have a very solid unit. This game has a low total and we would rather avoid Duke here as they are not panning out well in the projections.
Virginia Tech
Team Expected Points: 23
Duke’s defense is winning games this season as they have limited opponents to an FBS low 9.3 points per game. While the stats may be overblown since Duke has yet to face an explosive offense this year, Virginia Tech should not scare them as the Hokies have shown their share of struggles on offense as well. QB Michael Brewer (5,700) gets his first start since his injury in week 1, so we would rather see how he performs before pulling the trigger on him. WR Isaiah Ford (6,300) has been very consistent this season and should see a slight bump with Brewer back at quarterback, but we still cannot recommend high exposure to him due to the tough matchup.
Indiana at Michigan State
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Michigan State -16.5
O/U: 62
Indiana
Team Expected Points: 22.5
QB – Nate Sudfeld – 7,000
Analysis: Sudfeld looked incredible in his return from injury last week as he led Indiana to 52 points in their gut-wrenching loss to Rutgers last week. Sudfeld passed for a career-high 464 yards with 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He also managed to punch in a goal line touchdown to further pad his fantasy production. Sudfeld draws a tough matchup this week however as Indiana visits East Lansing. While Michigan State’s defense has been nowhere close to its usual form on paper, they are still one of the best teams in the country at putting pressure on the quarterback with 24 sacks this season.
Recommendation: Sudfeld is not projecting well this week. We would avoid him outside of a punt GPP play due to his low ownership and potential upside with Jordan Howard looking to be sidelined yet again.
Michigan State
Team Expected Points: 39
QB – Connor Cook – 7,100
Analysis: Cook is one of the most highly touted quarterback prospects in college football, and he finally has come close to showing it in his last couple games as he has exceeded 300 yards in each. Cook should find plenty of room to throw yet again this week as he faces the nation’s 2nd worst passing defense. Michigan State is a heavy favorite, but if their running game continues to perform poorly Cook may be in for a very big day.
Recommendation: This matchup is great and Cook is priced very attractively. While he may not have the gaudy multi-touchdown and rushing upside of other quarterbacks on the slate, Cook is in a very good spot to hit value with his yardage total alone this week, but his low ceiling makes Cook tough to recommend outside of some cash game exposure only if entering multiple lineups.
WR – Aaron Burbridge – 6,800, RJ Shelton – 4,500
Analysis: Burbridge has been on fire in his last couple of games, hauling in 9 and 10 receptions for 132 and 156 yards in each. Burbridge is on a bit of a cold streak in the touchdown department as it’s been 4 weeks since he has found the end zone, however this is as good of a week as he will get to bounce back in this dreamy matchup. RJ Shelton at near-minimum price can also be considered as he has garnered constant targets within the past 3 weeks with 11 receptions for 143 yards and a touchdown over that stretch.
Recommendation: Either Burbridge or Shelton make for nice stacks with Cook, while Burbridge is a fringe play for cash game consideration due to his target upside from this matchup.
TE – Josiah Price – 2,000
Analysis: Believe it or not, Josiah Price is tied for the lead in receiving touchdowns at 4 for Michigan State this season. While those 4 touchdowns come from just 8 receptions, it is encouraging to see that he scored 1 touchdown per game in 4 of their 7 victories this season.
Recommendation: Price will likely be reliant on the touchdown to pay off, but if he finds the end zone, it is a huge payoff for his minimum salary price. Price is definitely worth the punt play.
Penn State at Maryland
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Penn State -6.5
O/U: 48
Penn State
Team Expected Points: 27.25
RB – Saquon Barkley – 7,300
Analysis: Saquon Barkley has had some huge games this year, rushing for around 195 yards on 2 separate occasions, including last week as he averaged 7.5 yards per carry against the stout Ohio State defense. With Akeel Lynch potentially limited due to injury, Barkley looks to see a hefty load this week against the anemic Maryland run defense allowing nearly 200 rushing yards per game.
Recommendation: Barkley is a great value at this price as we have him projected very favorably. He is a solid play for your cash game rosters.
Maryland
Team Expected Points: 20.75
Maryland is in a tough spot against Penn State’s 16th ranked defense this week. While QB Perry Hills (6,900) would beg to differ after his monstrous rushing performance (170 rushing yards, 2 rushing TD’s) in their last game against Ohio State, it is tough to believe those kind of numbers are repeatable given his one-dimensional attack. Hills is nothing to be scared of through the air as he has thrown nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns with a sub-50% completion rate on the season.
Tennessee at Alabama
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Alabama -15
O/U: 53
Tennessee
Team Expected Points: 19
While Tennessee has one of the most explosive quarterbacks in the country, they face one of the nation’s most talented defenses this week. QB Josh Dobbs (8,600) has an immense amount of upside with his legs, but we have seen Alabama shut down opponents all season long. While we can’t fault Dobbs as a contrarian play in tournaments due to his rushing upside, we would safely avoid him in cash games. RB Jalen Hurd (6,800) has been dealing with a flu bug this week, so that combined with a banged up offensive line allows us to safely avoid him this week.
Alabama
Team Expected Points: 34
RB – Derrick Henry – 8,500, Kenyan Drake – 4,900
Analysis: Derrick Henry had a career game last week against Texas A&M as he rushed 32 times for 236 yards and 2 touchdowns, keeping his 7-game touchdown streak alive. Tennessee has not been very effective on defense this season, so we could easily see Alabama choosing to give Henry a similar workload as they should be playing from ahead in most of this contest. Backup Kenyan Drake had to leave last week’s game due to injury, but he is expected to play against this week and provides you with a decent punt play due as all he’d need is a late touchdown to pay off his salary.
Recommendation: Henry received a considerable price bump from last week as he is the most expensive running back on the slate. Henry is most certainly in play, however we see cheaper options below him having similar upside and ranking higher on our value scale as we’d rather spend up at other positions this week. Don’t miss out on some exposure if running multiple lineups, but know that Henry is not a must-play at this price. Kenyan Drake is your tournament punt play as the backup in this offense.
Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma -14
O/U: 72.5
Texas Tech
Team Expected Points: 29
The Red Raiders find themselves in a tough spot this week against a very solid Oklahoma offense whose strength against the pass may prove troublesome to their high flying offensive attack. Oklahoma is allowing an FBS 9th fewest passing yards per game (152.2) and has one of the nation’s best pass rushers in Eric Striker. QB Patrick Mahomes (9,300)can always be considered due to his offensive system; however this week will certainly be one of his toughest tests of the season. Mahomes had a big game against Oklahoma last season (393 yds and 4 TDs), but the Oklahoma passing defense is much improved this season so we look for Mahomes to struggle more than usual (which may not be saying much, i.e.
Recommendation: The Texas Tech offense is a GPP-only play for us this week. Mahomes is up against too many dual-threat quarterbacks in better matchups on this slate for us to recommend him in cash games.
Oklahoma
Team Expected Points: 43.5
The Sooners offense is in an excellent position this week in a game that will feature many popular fantasy plays in this slate. Texas Tech has allowed the 122nd most yards per game (~550) of any team this season, while Oklahoma is averaging just under 500 yards of total offense per game. QB Baker Mayfield (9,400) is primed to put up big numbers this week. Not only has he been lights out at home, completing 72% of his passes for nearly 1200 yards and a 10-1 touchdown to interception ratio, but he will be going into this game with a chip on his shoulder given his history with the Red Raider football program. Mayfield started his career at Texas Tech before transferring at the end of the 2013 season citing a “miscommunication” with coach Kliff Kingsbury after controversy around Mayfield’s starting quarterback job and scholarship status. Needless to say, Mayfield will have that little bit of extra motivation that could spark potentially massive fantasy numbers this week.
WR Sterling Shepard (7,400) could be a big beneficiary if Mayfield has a great game as Shepard is the #1 target in the Sooner offense. While we have seen some inconsistencies this season, this is Shepard’s best matchup since Week 3 when he put up a season-high 144 yards against Tulsa.
TE Mark Andrews (2,000) is a minimum priced punt option with plenty of touchdown upside as he has found the end zone 4 times on 9 receptions this season.
Recommendation: Mayfield is one of our top quarterback plays on the slate and will be a very popular option this week. Shepard makes for a solid stack if you can afford it, but is most certainly play for exposure if you go elsewhere at quarterback. Samaje Perine’s workload cannot be trusted enough to recommend playing him in any format other than GPP. We have tight end Mark Andrews projected as our top value tight end on the slate as we really, really like the Oklahoma offense.
Virginia at North Carolina
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: North Carolina -17.5
O/U: 61
Virginia
Team Expected Points: 22
While the Virginia offense managed 44 points against Syracuse last week, we still do not have faith in their fantasy upside outside of tournament plays. RB Taquan Mizzell (6,800) is very dangerous in the passing attack as he leads the team in receptions with 35, but his 3.8 yards per carry make him too dependable on those targets to get his production. We see his salary as being inflated this week making it tough to pay up for someone like him on this mediocre offense.
North Carolina
Team Expected Points: 39.5
QB – Marquise Williams – 9,300
Analysis: Marquise Williams has been in great form over the past 2 weeks as he has put up big scores fueled by a combination of his rushing and passing ability. Williams has now rushed for over 400 yards and 5 touchdowns on the year while still completing 64% of his passes averaging just under 200 passing yards per game. Facing a struggling Virginia defense, Williams should be poised for a great game—however he is up against some stout competition on this slate as there are a ton of other guys with plenty of upside to choose from at this price range.
Recommendation: While Williams has huge upside, he is priced up for where we are projecting him—too much so to recommend much cash game exposure to him. Williams lends himself more so as a tournament option given his boom or bust potential.
Wisconsin at Illinois
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Wisconsin -7
O/U: 44.5
Wisconsin
Team Expected Points: 28.75
RB Dare Ogbunowale 6,800
Analysis: While Dare Ogbunowale has not looked very impressive running the ball this season, he is in an offensive system that is not afraid to use him in multiple facets of the game. We saw him average a meager 3.1 yards per carry last week, but 6 receptions for 51 yards allowed him to put up his 2nd best fantasy total of the season.
Recommendation: There is a risk that Corey Clement returns this week, but if we know Clement is once again out, Dare remains a solid play at a fair price.
Illinois
Team Expected Points: 18.75
The Wisconsin defense has been very stout this season. Illinois has not shown enough on offense for us to see anyone standing out enough to overcome this matchup downgrade.
Washington State at Arizona
Kickoff: 4:00 PM EST
Spread: Arizona -7.5
O/U: 74
Washington State
Team Expected Points: 33.25
QB – Luke Falk – 9,500
Analysis: Washington State is in a great spot this week as they face Arizona’s 93rd ranked defense in a game sporting one of the higher O/U’s on the slate. Arizona was torched by Colorado’s Sefo Liufau to the tune of 339 yards and 2 touchdowns last week, so we see Luke Falk as having quite the ceiling here as he has yet to drop below 2 touchdowns in a game all season while averaging nearly 400 passing yards per game.
Recommendation: Luke Falk is a high upside, low floor kind of play in consideration in all formats. We do think some cheaper options at the position present more value, but could not fault exposure to Falk at all this week.
WR – Gabe Marks – 7,100, Dom Williams – 7,000, River Cracraft – 5,700
Analysis: Gabe Marks has put up very consistent numbers in his last 3 games, scoring at least 1 touchdown and coming near or over the 100-yard mark in each of those games. Marks has exceeded 100 yards 3 times this season while missing the end zone in only 1 game thus far, so he has the consistency we aim for—however, this offense spreads the targets around quite regularly making it tough to predict who will break out for a big game. We saw this last week as Dom Williams has a season-high 11 receptions for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns. This was the first time Williams had exceeded 7 receptions and 100 yards all year. Between Marks, Williams, and Cracraft, only once has any of them dropped below 8 fantasy points this season; however, each of them has scored above 20 and below 11 fantasy points at least once this season. While you might feel comfortable to get something out of them, this variation makes it tough to pay up and feel great about hitting value on a weekly basis.
Recommendation: All of the receivers in this offense are relatively safe for at least some production, however as we alluded to above, you never know who will meet and exceed their value targets at these salaries. Dom Williams has been trending up over the past few weeks, so are projecting him to be the highest scoring of the bunch, while River Cracraft’s depressed price makes him the best value to gain cheap exposure to this game.
Arizona
Team Expected Points: 40.75
RB – Nick Wilson – 8,000, Jared Baker – 7,000
Analysis: With Nick Wilson sidelined due to injury last week, Jared Baker stepped in and exploded for 207 yards and 2 touchdowns on 23 carries. Adding to his already massive stat line, Baker also managed to haul in 3 receptions for 40 yards and another touchdown. Wilson actually suited up for the last game, so barring any setbacks we would expect him to play this week. If we do learn that Wilson starts, it will be tough to play him at this price due to the risk of workload split since Baker has earned a share of the workload due to his last 2 outings.
Recommendation: Should we learn that Wilson will remain sidelined, Jared Baker becomes an excellent option at this price point. Otherwise, we are avoiding the running backs here due to an expected shared workload.
QB – Anu Soloman – 7,500
Analysis: Soloman has not looked great in his last few games, but we expect him to be busy in this matchup as Arizona will need to keep up with Washington State’s high flying offense. While we expect Arizona to establish their rushing game with whoever starts at running back, Soloman will have plenty of opportunities to throw as we have him projected close to 300 yards and a at least a couple of touchdowns. He threw for 5 touchdowns and nearly 300 yards against the Cougars last season, so we are optimistic about his chances again in this matchup.
Recommendation: Soloman is a very solid value quarterback play due to the game flow we expect him to fall into here. He is one of our highest value plays at the position.
