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Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 10-24-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 17 (34 teams)
Auburn at Arkansas
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Arkansas -6.5
O/U: 51
Auburn
Team Expected Points: 22.25
The Tigers offense is extremely dysfunctional, with RB Peyton Barber (6,500) the only guy worth considering. He draws a tough matchup against the 15th ranked Arkansas rushing defense allowing only 107 yards per game, so he will be a GPP play only due to his 25+ carry upside.
Arkansas
Team Expected Points: 27.75
RB – Alex Collins – 7,500
Analysis: While Alex Collins had a rough time in his last outing, let’s realize that he was facing the best defense in the country in Alabama. Collins only carried 12 times for 26 yards, however in his previous 3 games he carried 26+ times for 150+ yards and at least 1 touchdown. Auburn has been disappointing all around this season, especially on defense as they are allowing nearly 200 rushing yards per game. Stanley Williams of Kentucky averaged over 7 yards per carry for 2 touchdowns last week against Auburn, so Alex Collins coming off a bye is most certainly primed for success.
Recommendation: Collins is a solid play in all formats—he is near the top of our projections at the position the running back position in this slate.
QB – Brandon Allen – 5,500
Analysis: Brandon Allen has been a mediocre, yet consistent quarterback all season long, especially over the last 4 games as he has revolved around 15 fantasy points per game. He may not have much upside in this rush-first offense, but his matchup is solid and price is low this week.
Recommendation: Collins is a great value at the position due to his price and matchup against a weak Auburn defense. The lights will be on at home, so we think he could easily pay off for you in all formats as a QB2.
WR – Drew Morgan – 4,600
Analysis: After a rough week against Alabama in his last outing, Drew Morgan is poised for a bounce back in this week’s matchup. He put up 100+ yard games against Tennessee and Texas A&M in the 2 weeks leading up to Alabama and has scored a touchdown in in 4 of 6 games this season while leading the Hogs in receptions and receiving yards.
Recommendation: Morgan is another value play from this offense with some good upside as the go-to target in the passing game and red zone. Morgan is playable in all formats due to his great value and cheap price.
Clemson at Miami
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Clemson -7
O/U: 54.5
Clemson
Team Expected Points: 30.75
QB – Deshaun Watson – 8,000
Analysis: Deshaun Watson finally had that big game we were looking for in his last outing, and he did it against one of the country’s best defenses in Boston College. Watson passed for over 400 yards and 3 touchdowns while rushing for 32 yards and another touchdown on the ground. Watson is an elite caliber player with the potential to carry his team when needed. Clemson is only a touchdown favorite in this decent matchup against a Miami offense that also has the potential to put up points, so we expect him to have some great upside this week.
Recommendation: Watson definitely has potential this week, but projects out as more of a GPP play than cash games due to the other safer options you can pay up for here. Look to stack Watson in tournaments with his favorite target WR Artavis Scott (6,200) who also had a career game last week hauling in 10 receptions for 162 yards and a touchdown.
RB – Wayne Gallman – 5,800
Analysis: We saw Gallman struggle last week, but understandably so against Boston College’s absolutely elite rushing defense. In his 3 games prior, Gallman rushed over 100 yards each time out. He has only found the end zone in half of his games this season, but we see Gallman primed for a bounce back week against the Miami defense that allowed 222 yards to Dalvin Cook and over 6 yards per carry to Virginia Tech’s freshman running back Travon McMillian last week.
Recommendation: Gallman’s price is down, making him a nice way in for exposure to the Clemson offense. The play is not outstanding, but he has the potential to pay off and allows is definitely an option to differentiate at the position.
Miami
Team Expected Points: 23.75
QB – Brad Kaaya – 6,300
Analysis: Brad Kaaya has put up consistent passing yardage this season while only giving up 1 interception, but his lack of rushing ability really limits his upside compared to many other quarterbacks out there. This matchup is a tough one as Clemson rolls out an elite secondary led by Mackenzie Alexander, one of the best cornerbacks in the country. They are allowing just under 170 passing yards per game this season, so even though Kaaya will be forced to keep up, we will most certainly be more likely to cough up a rare interception or two this week.
Recommendation: Kaaya is certainly priced down here, but we would avoid him outside of a tournament shot due to his yardage upside if Miami can keep it close.
Houston at Central Florida
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Houston -21.5
O/U: 57
Houston
Team Expected Points: 39.25
The Houston offense is loaded with potential targets this week as they face a 0-7 UCF team that has yet to play nearly as explosive of an offense as they will see in the Cougars. QB Greg Ward Jr. (8,800) leads the charge as the 2nd highest scoring fantasy quarterback in college football. Ward had yet to dip below 30 fantasy points in a single game this season as he constantly flirts with 100 yards rushing while putting up extremely consistent passing yards with multi-touchdown upside in all facets of the game. Ward’s favorite target WR Demarcus Ayers (6,200) continued to impress last week with 6 receptions for 93 yards and a rushing touchdown. Ayers has yet to dip below 6 targets in a game this season. While passing touchdowns have come at a premium in the last 3 weeks (Ayers has 0), he still provides plenty of target upside in addition to an encouraging usage in the rushing game which could prove to have upside as we saw last week. RB Kenneth Farrow (6,100) had a tough outing against Tulane last week as he missed out on the end zone due to Ward’s rushing dominance. This is typical as Greg Ward Jr dominates the rushing game at Houston, but Farrow certainly has the talent to put up a big game here and there.
Recommendation: Greg Ward is a great play on a weekly basis in all formats. Demarcus Ayers is also a solid play for cash games, while we would limit exposure to Farrow in tournament only due to his low floor from losing touchdowns and yardage to Ward.
Central Florida
Team Expected Points: 17.75
With Central Florida averaging only 15.7 points per game, we are not overly interested in any fantasy options here. QB Justin Holman (5,100) is an intriguing punt play as he is one of the cheapest quarterbacks on the slate in a game from which they will be playing from behind. Houston’s defense can be scored on, we don’t mind Holman in GPP formats if it allows you to spend elsewhere.
Iowa State at Baylor
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Baylor -37
O/U: 78
Iowa State
Team Expected Points: 20.5
Iowa State is most definitely going through a rough patch as they face the #2 team in the country right on the heels of their 45-21 loss to #3 TCU last week. Most of this offense is priced down---QB S.B. Richardson (5,800) is very cheap but has shown a relatively low ceiling this year with mediocre performances against very suspect defenses. WR Allen Lazard (5,100) actually had his best game of the season last week against TCU with 5 receptions for 147 yards, including a 74-yard touchdown catch. While this performance was most definitely an outlier, Lazard could be a cheap GPP play.
Baylor
Team Expected Points: 57.5
Baylor continues to trample opponents with no signs of slowing down this record-breaking offense. Even against a decent West Virginia defense, we saw Baylor still put up 60+ yet again this season bringing their points per game up to 63.8. QB Seth Russell (9,400) is the highest scoring fantasy quarterback in college football, which rightfully earns him the top spot in terms of salary this week. Russell absolutely exploded for the best fantasy performance of his career as he threw for 380 yards and 5 touchdowns while rushing for 160 yards and another touchdown. These are epic numbers, and we are in no position to say he can’t repeat them on a weekly basis. The one thorn in Russell’s side is that he doesn’t run the ball nearly as much when games are not close at halftime—so with Baylor coming in a 37 point favorite over the 112th ranked Iowa State defense, we see Russell’s rushing upside limited.
WR Corey Coleman (8,600) is having a record-breaking season as he is on pace for nearly 30 touchdowns. Coleman owns the red zone for this Baylor team as he alone has hauled in half of the team’s touchdowns through the air. He has exceeded 100 yards in every contest this year and remains an absolutely elite option, always in play.
RB Shock Linwood (6,800) should be in store for a bounce back this week as we project Russell to lay off the rushing here. Linwood has put up big points this season, especially when Baylor jumps out to a more comfortable lead in the first half. With at least 1 touchdown in every game since Week 1 along with 130+ yards in weeks 2-6, we see Linwood as a great way to get cheaper exposure to Baylor this week as his price is about as discounted as you may see this year.
Recommendation: Everyone on Baylor is in play, with Russell and Coleman top options at their position. Coleman is becoming as close to a must-play as we have seen, even at his top level price. The other receivers are in play if looking for exposure, but none have the upside of Coleman. Shock Linwood is a cheaper option to get exposure, but does not grade out extremely well in terms of value in our projections as there are other guys with a more concrete workload expected.
Kansas State at Texas
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Texas -4.5
O/U: 51.5
Kansas State
Team Expected Points: 24.25
After seeing Kansas State get absolutely crushed in their last outing against Oklahoma (held to 110 total offensive yards), we cannot safely recommend anyone from this offense. Their quarterback situation seems to be in question while they have rotated running backs all season. Avoid them this week even against the relatively weak Texas defense.
Texas
Team Expected Points: 28.75
The Texas offense has been awfully bad this season outside of a few flashes here and there, including their 300+ yard rushing performance against the highly emotional win against Oklahoma in week 6. The matchup here seems to be a mismatch given what Texas brings to the table, as they are averaging nearly 200 rushing yards per game but face Kansas State’s 31st ranked rushing defense. And while Kansas State is ranked near the bottom of the league in passing yards allowed, Texas struggles to move the ball through the air as we saw with their 55-yard performance against Oklahoma. QB Jerrod Heard (5,600) offers tournament upside with his legs, but is not nearly safe enough for us to recommend you get much exposure to. We would like RB Johnathan Gray (4,400) here, but it looks as if RB D’Onta Foreman (3,900) may begin to eat into his workload as Foreman has now put up back to back 100+ yard games while Gray has yet to eclipse 80 yards in a game this season.
Northwestern at Nebraska
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Nebraska -7.5
O/U: 51
Northwestern
Team Expected Points: 21.5
Northwestern is fresh off a couple of bad losses to solid opponents as they visit Nebraska as a 7+ point underdog this week. RB Justin Jackson (5,500) has really struggled in his last couple of matchups, averaging a combined 2.5 yards per carry with 0 touchdowns. His outlook does not improve much this week as Nebraska is allowing the 7th fewest rushing yards per game this season at only 91. We are avoiding Northwestern yet again this week since their offense as a whole really does not have much explosion outside of Jackson who is in a tough spot.
Nebraska
Team Expected Points: 29
We would usually say Nebraska is in a very tough spot when we see they are facing Northwestern, but recent history seems to suggest otherwise as the Northwestern defense has been just obliterated for 872 yards and 78 points over the last 2 weeks. A good chunk of that yardage has been on the ground, especially last week as Northwestern allowed Iowa running back Akrum Wadley to rush for 204 yards and 4 touchdowns out of absolutely nowhere (previously rushed 8 times for 35 yards this season). RB Terrell Newby (5,400) had a great game last week rushing for 116 yards and 2 touchdowns against Minnesota, so we could see him as a sneaky, yet still risky play at the position this week. QB Tommy Armstrong (6,100) is another guy we could go for as he has plenty of rushing upside—however he has been fairly inconsistent this season making him more of a tournament play as well. WR Brandon Reilly (3,100) is close to minimum price, so take a look at him for a punt at wide receiver as he has shown the ability to haul in some long balls as the WR2 in this offense.
Pittsburgh at Syracuse
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Pittsburgh -7
O/U: 48.5
Pittsburgh
Team Expected Points: 27.75
We are projecting players with higher upside at the price range of Pittsburgh players this week. While WR Tyler Boyd (6,500) can be considered as a potential GPP play due to his elite talent and workload upside, we are not recommending anyone for cash games.
Syracuse
Team Expected Points: 20.75
The Syracuse offense rarely makes the cut for fantasy consideration on a weekly basis. Pittsburgh has a tough defense, but QB Eric Dungey (5,000) has shown some potential upside from his rushing ability--especially after accounting for a rushing touchdown in 3 straight games with a season-high 85 rushing yards last week. As one of the cheapest quarterbacks on the slate, Dungey could be worth a dart throw in GPP formats. Don’t touch this offense outside otherwise.
Bowling Green at Kent State
Kickoff: 1:00 PM EST
Spread: Bowling Green -14
O/U: 59.5
Bowling Green
Team Expected Points: 37.75
Bowling Green faces off against what has been a good Kent State defense in a game with one of the lower O/U’s we have seen for the Falcons to be playing. Although while Kent State’s defense may look stout on paper ranked 11th in the nation, it is a fact that they have faced less than impressive offensive talent this season. Bowling Green has a good shot at bringing them back to reality as this seemingly match-up proof offense continues to roll past defenses. QB Matt Johnson (8,900) passed for 357 yards last week, which is actually a his 2nd lowest yardage total of the season—but Johnson did throw for 5 touchdowns for the second consecutive game as he was the center of the Falcons’ offensive attack. Two of those touchdowns found the hands of WR Roger Lewis (8,000) as he eclipsed 1000 yards on the season in this game, good for 2nd best in the FBS. With the exception of a couple rough outings this season, Lewis has consistently scored 30+ fantasy points with 50+ point upside on the table as he showed on 2 occasions. Keep an eye on WR Gehrig Dieter (4,900) as an option for cheap exposure to this offense as he now has raked in 28 receptions over his last 4 games and found the end zone last week.
Recommendation: While everyone on this Bowling Green offense has potential, we actually are projecting them rather low this week in terms of value as their prices have held firm while the matchup and O/U is less favorable. Johnson and Lewis will be your bread and butter plays, but we see better value for the money elsewhere on this slate. It’s tough to pick between the other receivers, but we would roll with Dieter if looking for a cheap tournament option to gain exposure here.
Kent State
Team Expected Points: 23.25
While Bowling Green has an awful defense, the position players on Kent State are proving to be tough for us to predict as there has been an ongoing quarterback battle in addition to recent workload controversy at running back as their previous starter only receiving 5 carries last week. We are fairly confident however that both QB George Bollas (5,500) and RB Raekwon James (4,300) should get the nod this week. Bollas has enough rushing upside to make him dangerous, but we have not seen him pass the ball downfield much at all this season with a long of only 20 yards. James’ upside comes from his usage in the passing game as we saw him catch 8 balls for 56 yards last week, with 4 receptions for 66 yards the week before. James received 20 carries to go with his 8 receptions, so we would expect him to flourish yet again in this matchup.
Recommendation: Check the depth charts to be safe, but if both Bollas and James are starting, each represents a great value play—especially Raekwon James, who we would not mind some exposure in for cash games as we pay up at receiver.
Toledo at Massachusetts
Kickoff: 3:00 PM EST
Spread: Toledo -14
O/U: 62.5
Toledo
Team Expected Points: 38.25
Toledo has been playing very well lately as they are now ranked in the top 20 sporting a 6-0 record so far this season. Toledo is a 2-touchdown favorite here, so they are certainly expected to put up some points. Despite that, the only guy we would feel relatively comfortable playing would be QB Phillip Ely (6,400). We saw Ely throw 4 touchdown passes last week, and he is in a great spot here facing 103rd ranked Massachusetts pass defense. While he is not the safest of plays for cash game consideration, he will be a solid under-owned tournament option to provide salary relief this week. RB Terry Swanson (4,400) has seen some huge plays in his last couple of games, breaking off an 88 and 90 yard touchdown run in each. While his carries should be down with the expected 3-way split, Swanson could be worth a dart throw in GPP formats due to this big-play upside—especially with Toledo averaging 202 rushing yards per game and Massachusetts allowing an FBS 118th 230 rushing yards each game.
Massachusetts
Team Expected Points: 24.25
With mass speculation that QB Blake Frohnapfel (5,900) has an elbow injury hampering his ability to throw, we are forced to second guess the Massachusetts offense this week. We saw Kent State shut them down to only 10 points last week as Frohnapfel completed only 51.5% of his 33 pass attempts for 171 yards and 1 interception. This was Frohnapfel’s worst performance since facing Notre Dame, which is on another level than Kent State in terms of defensive talent. While the coach denied any injury concerns, be aware and keep an eye on the news before game time. We have assumed he is healthy and are projecting him to perform well here. WR Tajae Sharpe (7,200) is his go-to option, but he is priced up relatively high to consider as a solid value this week. TE Rodney Mills (3,400) is a very cheap option with heavy utilization in the Minutemen passing attack. Mills is a great punt option at wide receiver regardless of Frohnapfel’s status as he can provide a safe outlet for any quarterback.
Recommendation: Frohnapfel is very cheap, so barring any injury concerns he makes for a great value to save salary at the position this week. We think Tajae Sharpe is fairly overpriced, while Rodney Mills is our #1 value play on the board.
Duke at Virginia Tech
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Virginia Tech -2.5
O/U: 43.5
Duke
Team Expected Points: 20.5
Duke is in a tough spot against Virginia Tech this week. Even with the Hokies defense banged up, they still have a very solid unit. This game has a low total and we would rather avoid Duke here as they are not panning out well in the projections.
Virginia Tech
Team Expected Points: 23
Duke’s defense is winning games this season as they have limited opponents to an FBS low 9.3 points per game. While the stats may be overblown since Duke has yet to face an explosive offense this year, Virginia Tech should not scare them as the Hokies have shown their share of struggles on offense as well. QB Michael Brewer (5,500) gets his first start since his injury in week 1, so we would rather see how he performs before pulling the trigger on him. WR Isaiah Ford (4,800) has been very consistent this season and should see a slight bump with Brewer back at quarterback, but we still cannot recommend high exposure to him due to the tough matchup.
Indiana at Michigan State
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Michigan State -16.5
O/U: 62
Indiana
Team Expected Points: 22.5
QB – Nate Sudfeld – 5,300
Analysis: Sudfeld looked incredible in his return from injury last week as he led Indiana to 52 points in their gut-wrenching loss to Rutgers last week. Sudfeld passed for a career-high 464 yards with 4 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He also managed to punch in a goal line touchdown to further pad his fantasy production. Sudfeld draws a tough matchup this week however as Indiana visits East Lansing. While Michigan State’s defense has been nowhere close to its usual form on paper, they are still one of the best teams in the country at putting pressure on the quarterback with 24 sacks this season.
Recommendation: Sudfeld is not projecting well this week. We would avoid him outside of a punt GPP play due to his low ownership and potential upside with Jordan Howard looking to be sidelined yet again.
Michigan State
Team Expected Points: 39
QB – Connor Cook – 6,700
Analysis: Cook is one of the most highly touted quarterback prospects in college football, and he finally has come close to showing it in his last couple games as he has exceeded 300 yards in each. Cook should find plenty of room to throw yet again this week as he faces the nation’s 2nd worst passing defense. Michigan State is a heavy favorite, but if their running game continues to perform poorly Cook may be in for a very big day.
Recommendation: This matchup is great and Cook is priced very attractively. While he may not have the gaudy multi-touchdown and rushing upside of other quarterbacks on the slate, Cook is in a very good spot to hit value with his yardage total alone this week and provides some great salary relief as a playable QB2 in all formats.
WR – Aaron Burbridge – 5,700, RJ Shelton – 3,600
Analysis: Burbridge has been on fire in his last couple of games, hauling in 9 and 10 receptions for 132 and 156 yards in each. Burbridge is on a bit of a cold streak in the touchdown department as it’s been 4 weeks since he has found the end zone, however this is as good of a week as he will get to bounce back in this dreamy matchup. RJ Shelton at near-minimum price can also be considered as he has garnered constant targets within the past 3 weeks with 11 receptions for 143 yards and a touchdown over that stretch.
Recommendation: Either Burbridge or Shelton make for nice stacks with Cook in GPP formats, while Burbridge is a fringe play for cash game consideration due to his target upside from this matchup.
Penn State at Maryland
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Penn State -6.5
O/U: 48
Penn State
Team Expected Points: 27.25
RB – Saquon Barkley – 5,600
Analysis: Saquon Barkley has had some huge games this year, rushing for around 195 yards on 2 separate occasions, including last week as he averaged 7.5 yards per carry against the stout Ohio State defense. With Akeel Lynch potentially limited due to injury, Barkley looks to see a hefty load this week against the anemic Maryland run defense allowing nearly 200 rushing yards per game.
Recommendation: Barkley is a great value at this price. We have him projected very favorably and is a solid play for your cash game rosters.
WR – Chris Godwin – 4,200
Analysis: Chris Godwin has emerged as a solid receiving option for the Penn State offense as he leads the team with 30 receptions for nearly 500 yards (twice as many yards as any other WR on the team). Godwin put up a season high 103 yards on 3 receptions last week as he caught his season’s longest ball for 56 yards. Godwin now has a 30+ yard catch in all but 1 of his games this season, so we know he has downfield passing upside. While we would like to see more touchdowns, Godwin is still averaging a respectable 4 receptions and 70 yards per game.
Recommendation: While Godwin may be a bit risky for cash games since Penn State typically doesn’t focus much on their pass attack, he has a good matchup against Maryland and is a touchdown away from paying off this cheap salary.
Recommendation: Evans
Maryland
Team Expected Points: 20.75
Maryland is in a tough spot against Penn State’s 16th ranked defense this week. While QB Perry Hills (5,700) would beg to differ after his monstrous rushing performance (170 rushing yards, 2 rushing TD’s) in their last game against Ohio State, it is tough to believe those kind of numbers are repeatable given his one-dimensional attack. Hills is nothing to be scared of through the air as he has thrown nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns with a sub-50% completion rate on the season.
Tennessee at Alabama
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Alabama -15
O/U: 53
Tennessee
Team Expected Points: 19
While Tennessee has one of the most explosive quarterbacks in the country, they face one of the nation’s most talented defenses this week. QB Josh Dobbs (6,700) gets a massive salary discount even after his huge performance against Georgia 2 weeks ago, making him an excellent contrarian GPP option—but we would still safely avoid him in cash game situations due to the matchup. RB Jalen Hurd (5,800) has been dealing with a flu bug this week, so that combined with a banged up offensive line allows us to safely avoid him this week.
Alabama
Team Expected Points: 34
RB – Derrick Henry – 8,200, Kenyan Drake – 3,800
Analysis: Derrick Henry had a career game last week against Texas A&M as he rushed 32 times for 236 yards and 2 touchdowns, keeping his 7-game touchdown streak alive. Tennessee has not been very effective on defense this season, so we could easily see Alabama choosing to give Henry a similar workload as they should be playing from ahead in most of this contest. Backup Kenyan Drake had to leave last week’s game due to injury, but he is expected to play against this week and provides you with a decent punt play due as all he’d need is a late touchdown to pay off his salary.
Recommendation: Henry received a considerable price bump from last week as he is the most expensive running back on the slate. Henry is most certainly in play, however we see cheaper options below him having similar upside and ranking higher on our value scale as we’d rather spend up at other positions this week. Don’t miss out on some exposure if running multiple lineups, but know that Henry is not a must-play at this price. Kenyan Drake is your tournament punt play as the backup in this offense.
Texas Tech at Oklahoma
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma -14
O/U: 72.5
Texas Tech
Team Expected Points: 29
The Red Raiders find themselves in a tough spot this week against a very solid Oklahoma offense who’s strength against the pass may prove troublesome to their high flying offensive attack. Oklahoma is allowing an FBS 9th fewest passing yards per game (152.2) and has one of the nation’s best pass rushers in Eric Striker. QB Patrick Mahomes (8,300)can always be considered due to his offensive system, however this week will certainly be one of his toughest tests of the season. Mahomes had a big game against Oklahoma last season (393 yds and 4 TDs), but the Oklahoma passing defense is much improved this season so we look for Mahomes to struggle more than usual (which may not be saying much, i.e.
Recommendation: The Texas Tech offense is a GPP-only play for us this week. Mahomes is up against too many dual-threat quarterbacks in better matchups on this slate for us to recommend him in cash games.
Oklahoma
Team Expected Points: 43.5
The Sooners offense is in an excellent position this week in a game that will feature many popular fantasy plays in this slate. Texas Tech has allowed the 122nd most yards per game (~550) of any team this season, while Oklahoma is averaging just under 500 yards of total offense per game. QB Baker Mayfield (8,700) is primed to put up big numbers this week. Not only has he been lights out at home, completing 72% of his passes for nearly 1200 yards and a 10-1 touchdown to interception ratio, but he will be going into this game with a chip on his shoulder given his history with the Red Raider football program. Mayfield started his career at Texas Tech before transferring at the end of the 2013 season citing a “miscommunication” with coach Kliff Kingsbury after controversy around Mayfield’s starting quarterback job and scholarship status. Needless to say, Mayfield will have that little bit of extra motivation that could spark potentially massive fantasy numbers this week.
WR Sterling Shepard (6,700) could be a big beneficiary if Mayfield has a great game as Shepard is the #1 target in the Sooner offense. While we have seen some inconsistencies this season, this is Shepard’s best matchup since Week 3 when he put up a season-high 144 yards against Tulsa.
TE Mark Andrews (3,000) is a minimum priced punt option with plenty of touchdown upside as he has found the end zone 4 times on 9 receptions this season.
Recommendation: Mayfield is one of our top quarterback plays on the slate and will be a very popular option this week. Shepard makes for a solid stack if you can afford it, but is most certainly play for exposure if you go elsewhere at quarterback. The tight end Andrews may be too risky for cash games, but is certainly in play for tournaments. We cannot trust Samaje Perine’s workload enough to recommend playing him in any format other than GPP.
Virginia at North Carolina
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: North Carolina -17.5
O/U: 61
Virginia
Team Expected Points: 22
While the Virginia offense managed 44 points against Syracuse last week, we still do not have faith in their fantasy upside outside of tournament plays. RB Taquan Mizzell (6,500) is very dangerous in the passing attack as he leads the team in receptions with 35, but his 3.8 yards per carry make him too dependable on those targets to get his production. We see his salary as being inflated this week making it tough to pay up for someone like him on this mediocre offense.
North Carolina
Team Expected Points: 39.5
QB – Marquise Williams – 8,200
Analysis: Marquise Williams has been in great form over the past 2 weeks as he has put up big scores fueled by a combination of his rushing and passing ability. Williams has now rushed for over 400 yards and 5 touchdowns on the year while still completing 64% of his passes averaging just under 200 passing yards per game. Facing a struggling Virginia defense, Williams should be poised for a great game—however he is up against some stout competition on this slate as there are a ton of other guys with plenty of upside to choose from at this price range.
Recommendation: Williams is a great option to gain exposure to in all formats, however we would prefer him more so in tournaments due to his high ceiling but relatively lower floor.
Wisconsin at Illinois
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Wisconsin -7
O/U: 44.5
Wisconsin
Team Expected Points: 28.75
RB Dare Ogbunowale – 5,200
Analysis: While Dare Ogbunowale has not looked very impressive running the ball this season, he is in an offensive system that is not afraid to use him in multiple facets of the game. We saw him average a meager 3.1 yards per carry last week, but 6 receptions for 51 yards allowed him to put up his 2nd best fantasy total of the season.
Recommendation: There is a risk that Corey Clement returns this week, but if we know Clement is once again out, Dare remains a solid play to gain exposure to in cash games at this price.
Illinois
Team Expected Points: 18.75
The Wisconsin defense has been very stout this season. Illinois has not shown enough on offense for us to see anyone standing out enough to overcome this matchup downgrade.
Washington State at Arizona
Kickoff: 4:00 PM EST
Spread: Arizona -7.5
O/U: 74
Washington State
Team Expected Points: 33.25
QB – Luke Falk – 9,200
Analysis: Washington State is in a great spot this week as they face Arizona’s 93rd ranked defense in a game sporting one of the higher O/U’s on the slate. Arizona was torched by Colorado’s Sefo Liufau to the tune of 339 yards and 2 touchdowns last week, so we see Luke Falk as having quite the ceiling here as he has yet to drop below 2 touchdowns in a game all season while averaging nearly 400 passing yards per game.
Recommendation: While Luke Falk is certainly in play doe to his matchup, a guy named Seth Russell will be hard to pass up on for only 200 more, making Falk more of a tournament play due to the higher Russell ownership expected at this salary level.
WR – Gabe Marks – 6,700, Dom Williams – 5,600, River Cracraft – 5,000
Analysis: Gabe Marks has put up very consistent numbers in his last 3 games, scoring at least 1 touchdown and coming near or over the 100-yard mark in each of those games. Marks has exceeded 100 yards 3 times this season while missing the end zone in only 1 game thus far, so he has the consistency we aim for—however, this offense spreads the targets around quite regularly making it tough to predict who will break out for a big game. We saw this last week as Dom Williams has a season-high 11 receptions for 158 yards and 2 touchdowns. This was the first time Williams had exceeded 7 receptions and 100 yards all year. Between Marks, Williams, and Cracraft, only once has any of them dropped below 10 fantasy points this season; however, each of them has scored above 29 and below 13 fantasy points at least once this season. While you might feel comfortable to get something out of them, this variation makes it tough to pay up and feel great about hitting value on a weekly basis.
Recommendation: All of the receivers in this offense are relatively safe for at least some production, however as we alluded to above, you never know who will meet and exceed their value targets at these salaries. Dom Williams has been trending up over the past few weeks, so with 1100 in salary relief from Marks, we would project him being in the best position from a value perspective this week.
RB – Keith Harrington – 3,700
Analysis: While Harrington may not get the start at running back, he usually plays a good chunk of the game and is a candidate for multiple opportunities in the pass game along with 4-6 carries. Harrington usually puts up consistent numbers due to his receptions, having only fallen into single digit fantasy points once this season.
Recommendation: Harrington is cheap enough to consider in all formats if you need the cap space as he should have enough upside to hit value in this offense.
Arizona
Team Expected Points: 40.75
RB – Nick Wilson – 6,700, Jared Baker – 5,500
Analysis: With Nick Wilson sidelined due to injury last week, Jared Baker stepped in and exploded for 207 yards and 2 touchdowns on 23 carries. Adding to his already massive stat line, Baker also managed to haul in 3 receptions for 40 yards and another touchdown. Wilson actually suited up for the last game, so barring any setbacks we would expect him to play this week. If we do learn that Wilson starts, it will be tough to play him at this price due to the risk of workload split since Baker has earned a share of the workload due to his last 2 outings.
Recommendation: Should we learn that Wilson will remain sidelined, Jared Baker becomes an excellent option at this price point. Otherwise, we are avoiding the running backs here due to an expected shared workload.
QB – Anu Soloman – 6,900
Analysis: Soloman has not looked great in his last few games, but we expect him to be busy in this matchup as Arizona will need to keep up with Washington State’s high flying offense. While we expect Arizona to establish their rushing game with whoever starts at running back, Soloman will have plenty of opportunities to throw as we have him projected close to 300 yards and a at least a couple of touchdowns. He threw for 5 touchdowns and nearly 300 yards against the Cougars last season, so we are optimistic about his chances again in this matchup.
Recommendation: Soloman is a very solid QB2 play due to the game flow we expect him to fall into here.
