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Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 10-17-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 17 (34 teams)
West Virginia at Baylor
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Baylor -21.5
O/U: 75
West Virginia
Team Expected Points: 26.75
QB – Skyler Howard – 7,200
Analysis: Skyler Howard has a great matchup against Baylor, as he will be forced to throw the ball often to keep try and stay competitive here. We have definitely seen Howard’s performance drop as West Virginia began facing more talented defenses this season, Despite his struggles, Baylor’s pass defense is nothing we would worry too much about as Howard should be primed for a bounce-back week with a shot at crossing 300 yards for the second time this season.
Recommendation: Howard is priced down considering the situation he is in this week against Baylor. He makes for a great tournament option and is also playable in cash games due to the high volume of passing we expect from him.
WR – Shelton Gibson – 4,700
Analysis: Shelton Gibson has put up solid fantasy numbers this season outside of Week 5 against Oklahoma. Gibson has over 80 yards and at least 1 touchdown in every other game this season as he leads the Mountaineers in all receiving categories this season. Baylor’s pass defense is certainly nothing to write home about, so we could foresee a big performance out of Gibson as West Virginia will be forced to pass often if they are to keep this game close.
Recommendation: Given the matchup and expected game flow, Gibson represents a great play at only 4,700 here, playable in all formats. Consider the stack with Howard in tournaments.
Baylor
Team Expected Points: 48.25
Baylor is coming off yet another 60+ point performance last week, their 5th time of the season to exceed that mark. West Virginia will present their biggest challenge of the year. All options on this Baylor team are very pricey, as usual. Both QB Seth Russell (9,000) and WR Corey Coleman (8,200) are priced near the top of their positions. While each has undoubtedly elite talent, we do not like the pricing from a value perspective given their more difficult matchup this week. RB Shock Linwood (7,200) is at a slightly more manageable price of 7,200. Linwood is averaging 9.6 yards per carry this season with over 130 yards in each of his last 4 games. Our only complaint about Linwood is his lack of contribution in the passing game, only having caught 2 receptions all year (both last week). This lack of receptions in addition to the many, many options on this offense puts a damper on Linwood’s upside considering what you have to pay up for him. The other receivers in this core are highly unpredictable in terms of their production, with WR KD Cannon (5,300) disappointing on a weekly basis and WR Jay Lee (5,600) highly dependent on the big plays for his production.
Recommendation: We feel that the Bears offense is overpriced this week considering their elevated matchup. While West Virginia is nowhere near an elite defense, they are definitely a step up while we do not see much relief in pricing to accommodate that. All options are always playable in GPP’s since Baylor’s offense has proven to be unstoppable, but we are only comfortable paying up for Seth Russell in cash formats this week—and even with that, we would prefer both Patrick Mahomes and Matt Johnson over Russell from a matchup perspective.
Iowa at Northwestern
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Iowa -2.5
O/U: 41
Iowa
Team Expected Points: 21.75
RB - Jordan Canzeri - 6,200
Analysis: Jordan Canzeri absolutely exploded last week with 43 carries for 256 yards as Iowa leaned heavily on him to remain undefeated on the season. The entire offense revolved around Canzeri here, so we could expect something similar this week against the very tough Northwestern defense.
Recommendation: Canzeri certainly has workload upside after what we saw last week, however his matchup against the Northwestern defense allowing only 12.2 points per game makes Canzeri a tough play to stomach for cash games. We would consider Canzeri a solid GPP play this week.
Northwestern
Team Expected Points: 19.25
The Iowa defense has been fierce this season, especially against the run as they have allowed only 78 yards per game. This is unfortunate for Northwestern, as their main strength is the run game. RB Justin Jackson (5,200) comes at a great price, but this matchup is just as bad as last week against Michigan when he was held to only 2.1 yards per carry. Jackson could be considered a contrarian tournament play only, as we are not confident in this offense at all.
Louisiana Tech at Mississippi State
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Mississippi State -13.5
O/U: 59.5
Louisiana Tech
Team Expected Points: 23
RB – Kenneth Dixon – 8,400
Analysis: Kenneth Dixon missed last week’s game against UTSA due to a leg injury. His status is still uncertain for this week, however we would expect he plays since he was actually available last week. Dixon has the potential to put up very big stats; however it is not often that he faces an SEC defense. Mississippi State may not have outstanding statistics this year, but they have shown the ability to flock to the ball with an FBS 2nd 301 assisted tackles on the season. Dixon only managed 29 yards against Auburn last season, his lowest total of any game from his 1300-yard 2014 campaign. One thing working in his favor however is that Mississippi State has shown a weakness against the run this season, having allowed some big games so far to Leonard Fournette (159 yards and 3 touchdowns) as well as Peyton Barber (137 yards).
Recommendation: Dixon is a great running back, but at 8,400, we cannot justify him even against a mediocre Mississippi State defense, especially considering his injury concerns.
Mississippi State
Team Expected Points: 36.5
QB – Dak Prescott – 8,600
Analysis: Prescott has not put up the stats we became accustomed to last season, having failed to exceed 2 passing touchdowns in a game so far this season. He is however holding on to the ball much better as he has not thrown an interception yet compared to 4 at this point last season. Prescott is in a great matchup here as Louisiana Tech has been much tougher on the run than the pass, allowing nearly 250 yards per game through the air compared to only 111 yards on the ground. Mississippi State will be their first real challenge, and Dak Prescott should be primed for a solid performance. One of the downsides here though is that Prescott is not running nearly as much as he was last season—he had 4 100+yard rushing games at this point last year compared to only 220 total yards through 6 games this season.
Recommendation: While we like Prescott’s matchup, he is priced up fairly high considering what he has brought to the table this year. We don’t feel his ceiling is high enough to warrant considerable attention in any format this week, as there are much higher upside guys out there in this price range.
Ole Miss at Memphis
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Ole Miss -10.5
O/U: 69.5
Ole Miss
Team Expected Points: 40
QB – Chad Kelly – 7,400
Analysis: Chad Kelly comes in at a very reasonable price this week as he faces a Memphis defense allowing over 300 passing yards per game, including allowing over 400 yards through the air to Bowling Green and a whopping 620 passing yards to Cincinnati earlier in the year. Kelly has thrown for over 300 yards on 4 occasions this season, including 3 games with at least 3 passing touchdowns. Kelly is in a very good spot this week as he faces one of the softest defenses he will get all year with a very powerful Memphis offense to keep this game close and Kelly on the field.
Recommendation: We really like Chad Kelly this week, as this game should be relatively competitive—enough to keep Kelly around into the 4th quarter with plenty of 300+ yard upside for a very reasonable salary.
WR – Laquon Treadwell – 5,700, Quincy Adeboyejo – 4,800
Analysis: Laquon Treadwell is the clear #1 option in this offense. Treadwell has consistently hauled in at least 4-5 receptions per game, but we have seen some huge swings in terms of his yardage numbers—anywhere from 42 yards against Florida to 136 yards against New Mexico State last week. Treadwell’s touchdown numbers also give us pause, as he has only scored in 2 games this season with 3 total touchdowns to his name. We feel that this number should be much higher, and this is a week in which he could do it facing a weak Memphis secondary. We also see Quincy Adeboyejo playing a nice support role in this game as he is priced quite low. While he has cooled off in the last couple of games, Adeboyejo showed us some nice big play upside earlier in the year, including a game in which he scored 3 touchdowns with 120 yards against Fresno State.
Recommendation: Treadwell is really priced down here due to his inconsistent performances and lack of touchdowns this season. For a WR1 catching balls from a quarterback we really like, Treadwell can be fit into both cash and tournament lineups. Adeboyejo is primarily a tournament option who will be low owned.
Memphis
Team Expected Points: 29.5
QB – Paxton Lynch – 8,000
Analysis: Paxton Lynch has been one of the best quarterbacks in football this year. The 6’7 245lb junior has thrown for over 300 yards and at least 2 touchdowns in his last 4 games this season, averaging an FBS 2nd 10.5 yards per attempt. Lynch is incredibly accurate as well, sporting a 70.5 completion percentage and 0 interceptions thus far. If his luck were to ever change, this week is the best shot as Memphis faces an Ole Miss defense that has forced 9 interceptions while allowing just over 200 passing yards per game this season. While Lynch’s success is certainly impressive, it has come against all bottom-half defenses in mostly shootout victories. In such ideal matchups, we are somewhat disappointed to see Lynch only throw for 10 total touchdowns as well considering how often he throws the ball.
Recommendation: Paxton Lynch has shown strong consistency all year, and he is the center of the Memphis offense. However all of his success has come against very suspect defenses this year, and he faces a tough test in Ole Miss this week. We will be avoiding Lynch in cash games this week in favor of safer plays. If you need exposure, do it in GPP’s only.
Purdue at Wisconsin
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Wisconsin -24
O/U: 48
Purdue
Team Expected Points: 12
Purdue is in a very tough spot this week against the 12th ranked Wisconsin defense, allowing only 286 total yards and 11.5 points per game. Outside of a few big runs, Wisconsin shut down the Nebraska offense last week allowing only 129 passing yards and limiting their starting running back to 3.9 yards per carry. We are avoiding the Boilermakers here.
Wisconsin
Team Expected Points: 36
RB Dare Ogbunowale - 4,900, Taiwan Deal – 4,600
Analysis: Both Dare Ogbunowale and Taiwan Deal have been in the mix all season since Corey Clement went down. However with Deal now plagued by an injured ankle, Dare could be presented with a huge opportunity against a horrid Purdue defense allowing 216.5 rushing yards per game, including 176 yards on 17 carries for 176 yards last week to Minnesota’s freshman running back Shannon Brooks. Dare carried 18 times for 117 yards in Wisconsin’s win over Nebraska, however he failed to find the end zone nor was he targeted with any passes. We have seen Wisconsin use Dare in the passing game sporadically this season, so that still certainly remains on the table going forward.
Recommendation: If Taiwan Deal is ruled out of this game, Dare Ogbunowale becomes an absolutely excellent play at only 4,900 in this very ideal matchup. If we hear that Deal does plan on playing, we still may have some exposure to Dare but more so in tournaments than cash games.
Tulsa at East Carolina
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: East Carolina -10.5
O/U: 77.5
Tulsa
Team Expected Points: 33.5
QB – Dane Evans – 8,000
Analysis: Dane Evans continues to roll through opposing defenses this year. Is averaging over 40 pass attempts per game and has thrown for over 320 yards in all 5 games this season, exceeding 420 yards in 2 of those games. Evans has a favorable matchup this week against East Carolina, as their defense ranks 92nd in total yards allowed per game and 96th in points allowed per game with 32. Evans’ upside definitely takes a hit with the loss of his best wide receiver Keevan Lucas last week. Now that teams will not be forced to game plan around Lucas, we could see Evans struggle a bit more to find that open #2 or #3 guy as we have seen so far this season. While we still expect Evans to succeed if only by sheer volume, we certainly have reflected some regression in this week’s projections.
Recommendation: Evans has been great, but with the loss of his #1 receiver, we expect him to be a less attractive option than before. We will be avoiding Evans on this slate as he is priced at or above some other more attractive options here.
WR – Keyarris Garrett - 6,900, Joshua Atkinson – 5,400
Analysis: With Keevan Lucas gone for the season, the rest of the Tulsa receiving core will definitely need to pick up the slack. Keyarris Garrett has quietly led Tulsa in both receptions and yards this season as defenses have been focusing so heavily on Keevan Lucas. Now that Garrett becomes that new go-to option, we will have to see how he can deal with the pressure. Garrett is priced up for our liking this week, but WR2 Joshua Atkinson presents a very intriguing opportunity given his pricing. Atkinson has put up over 100 yards in every game he has played in this season, including a 10-catch performance against Oklahoma along with 9 receptions last week against Louisiana Monroe. Atkinson has the size and ability to step right into the WR2 role from which Garrett exploded thus far this season.
Recommendation: Keyarris Garrett is priced too high for our liking this week given the value we see in Joshua Atkinson. I will certainly find a way to work Atkinson into both cash and tournament lineups on this slate.
East Carolina
Team Expected Points: 44
QB – Blake Kemp – 7,100
Analysis: Blake Kemp had an explosive outing against BYU as he threw for a career-high 371 yards along with 2 touchdowns. Kemp does continue to lose time on the field to rushing quarterback James Summers as Summers was allowed to rush 10 times and pass 6 times in this last game, however after Kemp’s performance that kept them close against BYU, it will be tough not to expect him on the field for the majority of snaps as East Carolina goes into what should be another competitive, high scoring contest against cross-division foe Tulsa. The Tulsa defense is really bad on all areas of defense, allowing the 123rd most yards per game (554) this season. Kemp should be in a very good spot to put up big numbers here, especially if he plays like he did last week.
Recommendation: We like Kemp as a value quarterback play in all formats this week as he has one of the best matchups on the board.
RB – Chris Hairston – 5,200
Analysis: Senior running back Chris Hairston has put up very mediocre numbers since his week 1 explosion against Towson this season. To his defense, East Carolina has seen some tough defensive matchups in the heart of their schedule thus far, including Florida and Virginia Tech where Hairston failed to average over 1 yard per carry. This week is another story as the Tulsa defense has allowed nearly 270 rushing yards per game. Hairston is given a feature-back workload in this offense, so he certainly has the potential to put up big numbers in this matchup.
Recommendation: Hairston is playable in all formats due to his matchup here.
WR – Isaiah Jones – 5,800, Trevon Brown – 4,600, Bryce Williams – 4,100
Analysis: We have talked enough in this section about the matchup—you know how juicy it is for sure. All of the East Carolina receivers have great potential here, with Isaiah Jones being the clear WR1 in this offense as we’ve seen him with double-digit receptions in 3 games this season. Both Trevon Brown and Bryce Williams are priced very attractively given their matchup upside and recent success. While Trevon Brown was not used early in the season, he has now caught a touchdown in each of his last 3 games with very consistent 85 and 84 yard totals in each of his last 2 games.
Recommendation: Isaiah Jones is our chalk play on this slate as his price is too good to avoid. Trevon Brown is right behind him as an excellent value play. Both are playable in all formats, with a 2-WR tournament stack not at all out of the question in this matchup where we should see plenty of production to go around.
Texas Tech at Kansas
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Texas Tech -31
O/U: 75
Texas Tech
Team Expected Points: 53
The Texas Tech offense has yet another attractive matchup this week as they face a bad Kansas defense. As a 31 point favorite with a 75 O/U, the Red Raiders will definitely be putting up points. QB Patrick Mahomes (9,500) logged his second straight another 400+ yard game last week while posting a season-high 5 touchdowns with no interceptions. The only reason to doubt Mahomes this week would be the blowout potential, as he could very well yield to Davis Webb earlier rather than later.
WR Jakeem Grant (7,200) had his best fantasy day of the year last week with 9 receptions for 166 yards and 2 touchdowns. He has a ton of upside with Kansas being so bad on defense, especially as we saw Corey Coleman haul in 7 catches for 108 yards and 2 touchdowns against them last week. In that same game however, Coleman did not play any of the second half which is what we fear about Grant’s situation this week, in addition the potential touchdown vultures from the rest of these Texas Tech offensive weapons.
RB DeAndre Washington (6,300) had another bounce back game as the inconsistency continues. After accounting for only 80 total yards and 0 touchdowns against Baylor, Washington was good for 120 total yards, 5 receptions, and 2 touchdowns against Iowa State last week. Washington should be in line for a higher-than-average rushing workload in this game as Texas Tech jumps out to an early and commanding lead, but his inconsistency this season still gives us pause.
Recommendation: Everyone on Texas Tech is in play here due to the matchup; however we honestly are not favorably projecting the top options from a value perspective as both Mahomes and Grant are priced near the top of their positions. Look for someone like WR Devin Lauderdale (4,400) or WR Reginald Davis (4,400) to provide salary relief along with playing time later into the game.
Kansas
Team Expected Points: 22
With multiple injuries at the quarterback and wide receiver positions in addition to a running back controversy sparked by the return of RB Taylor Cox (3,100), we are avoiding the Kansas offense even in what should be a juicy matchup against the subpar Texas Tech defense. Taylor Cox got the start last week over RB Ke’aun Kinner (4,100) and rushed 19 times for 45 yards while catching 3 passes for 16 yards. This was not a lights out performance by any means, but if we hear that Taylor Cox is the hands down starter going into this great matchup, he would be one heck of a value to plug into your GPP’s at nearly minimum price.
Louisville at Florida State
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Florida State -7
O/U: 46
Louisville
Team Expected Points: 19.5
Louisville faces up against Florida State’s 22nd ranked defense that is only allowing 14 points per game this season. Louisville’s offense struggled in close win over NC State in their last game, so we are not expecting a big performance in an even worse matchup against Florida State here. The only guy we would consider is QB Lamar Jackson (5,800) due to his immense rushing upside and rock bottom price. Jackson has rushed for 305 yards and 3 touchdowns in his last 2 games started, so we can see the upside is definitely there. Despite that upside, he has a solid chance of being absolutely shut down against Florida State, which relegates Jackson to a GPP-only play for us.
Florida State
Team Expected Points: 26.5
RB – Dalvin Cook- 9,000
Analysis: Dalvin Cook has been nothing short of amazing so far this season. In the spotlight of Leonard Fournette, Cook has quietly amassed 792 rushing yards, good for 6th in the country. Cook has 12 runs of at least 20+ yards this season as well, same as Fournette. While Dalvin Cook is definitely an elite back, he finds himself in a tough matchup this week against Louisville. While their rushing defense may not be as unstoppable as years past, they are still an upper tier outfit overall, allowing only 324 total yards per game with 146 of those being rushing yards. This game only has a 46 point total as well, and with Cook priced where he is you almost certainly need multiple touchdowns which may be tough to find here.
Recommendation: Cook is an elite talent and always in play for tournaments, but his price moves him out of consideration for cash games this week due to other values on the board.
Akron at Bowling Green
Kickoff: 3:00 PM EST
Spread: Bowling Green -11.5
O/U: 67
Akron
Team Expected Points: 27.8
QB – Thomas Woodson – 6,800
Analysis: Many of you may not have heard of Thomas Woodson, but we want you to quickly become familiar with him as Woodson finds himself in a dream matchup against Bowling Green this week. With the Falcons allowing the 2nd most passing yards per game this season, Woodson has a real opportunity to shine. Against Eastern Michigan last week, Woodson had his best game of the season with 222 yards and 4 touchdowns coupled with 72 rushing yards from 10 attempts. While Woodson has shown to be an average passer, he definitely has some speed as he has amassed 269 rushing yards from 45 attempts while starting only 4 games this season. Bowling Green has yet to stop an opposing quarterback this season, so we see no reason for Woodson to not have success on Saturday.
Recommendation: Woodson is one of our top value quarterbacks on the slate due to his excellent matchup. He is in play in all formats, particularly tournaments as many people should overlook the Akron quarterback due to lack of name recognition.
RB – Conor Hundley – 4,800
Analysis: Conor Hundley is another guy with Akron that really stands out to us. He is having a solid year so far, averaging 5.6 yards per carry with 474 yards and 6 touchdowns. Hundley’s consideration primarily comes from both his workload (17-19 carries in each of his last 3 games) along with the premium matchup against the atrocious Bowling Green defense. Akron will most certainly try to establish a running game to keep Bowling Green off the field, so if Hundley gets rolling we could see an easy pay-off for his cheap salary.
Recommendation: Hundley is one of our top values on the day, in consideration for all formats.
Bowling Green
Team Expected Points: 39.25
Bowling Green is another potent offense that we always must consider on a weekly basis. Their opposing defense, Akron, has not faced much competition on the year. Their closest opponent to the talent that Bowling Green has on offense was Oklahoma in week 1, a game in which Akron allowed Baker Mayfield to pass for nearly 400 yards and 3 touchdowns. QB Matt Johnson (9,400) is licking his chops going into this matchup. Johnson is coming off his best passing performance of the year last week as he completed 84.6% of his 39 attempts for 450 yards and 5 touchdowns. With his 5th 400+ yard performance in 5 games, Johnson continues to prove why he should be priced near the top of every slate.
WR Roger Lewis (8,400) is the WR1 for the Falcons, and he continues to dominate as he amassed 8 receptions for 142 yards and a touchdown last week. Lewis now has a pair of 50+ point fantasy performances in addition to 30+ fantasy point games in his last two outings. This matchup may not scream 50+ fantasy points, but he certainly has his usual upside. WR Ronnie Moore (5,600), WR Ryan Burbrink (4,900), and WR Gehrig Dieter (4,800) are all in play as salary relief options, but the inconsistency of target distribution makes it tough for us to pick between them on a week to week basis.
RB Travis Greene (6,900) sees a significant price bump after he put up his biggest fantasy score of the season last week with 157 yards of total offense with 3 receptions and 2 touchdowns. Greene has now rushed over 100 yards in back to back games, so our confidence is picking up—however his price may prove to be a barrier this week due to the plethora of mouths to feed in this fantasy friendly offense.
Recommendation: Both Matt Johnson and Roger Lewis are elite plays at their positions. You will be paying up for each, but they have extremely high ceilings. We would not mind Johnson in cash formats as a very safe quarterback. Lewis’s price lends him to consideration more so in tournaments, as there are many other receiver options at a much cheaper price to consider. Travis Greene also comes in lower from a value perspective for us this week, as he does not have his normal upside with so many mouths to feed in this offense.
Alabama at Texas A&M
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Alabama -4
O/U: 52.5
Alabama
Team Expected Points: 28.5
RB – Dereck Henry – 7,300
Analysis: Dereck Henry’s touchdown streak lives on with 10 straight games in which he has scored at least 1 touchdown. Henry has now received 25+ carries in each of his last 2 games and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry on the season. Henry’s touchdown upside and consistent workload makes him a solid target against the Aggie defense allowing over 180 rushing yards per game this season.
Recommendation: Dereck Henry is priced reasonably this week given his consistency. We would not mind Henry in cash or tournaments as Alabama should lean heavily on their run game in an attempt to control the pact and keep Texas A&M’s high powered offense off the field.
WR – Calvin Ridley – 5,200
Analysis: We have to call out Calvin Ridley here as he certainly has impressed over the past couple of weeks. Even as Alabama has seemingly struggled to find its identity in the passing game, Ridley has managed to haul in 14 receptions for 260 yards and 2 touchdowns over the last 2 weeks. Ridley leads the Tide in receptions this season with 31 overall, so he can easily be considered their go-to receiving option. We expect this game to be back and forth, so Ridley should certainly see some looks in the passing game.
Recommendation: Calvin Ridley is very attractively priced. We do expect Alabama to run often, but that should open up Ridley for some big play opportunities, of which he only needs 1 to pay off his reasonable salary.
Texas A&M
Team Expected Points: 24.5
While Texas A&M certainly has an explosive offense averaging nearly 40 points and 480 yards per game, they are facing what may be the best defense in the nation this week. Based on their pricing, we are not projecting enough value here to overcome the bad matchup—therefore we will be fading the A&M offense.
Michigan State at Michigan
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Michigan -8.5
O/U: 40.5
Michigan State
Team Expected Points: 16
As many of you know, Michigan has not allowed a single point in 3 games—all 3 of which were Power 5 opponents, 2 of which were ranked at the time. Needless to say, we are avoiding the Michigan State offense.
Michigan
Team Expected Points: 24.5
Granted the Michigan State defense has not shown to be as powerful as we had expected, they still are a top tier outfit facing a Michigan team that relies heavily on its defense. While the matchup is not ideal, we do think RB De’Veon Smith (5,000) should see a significant number of carries as Michigan keeps the ball on the ground. For a running back we think can exceed 20 carries, his price of 5,000 makes Smith in consideration as you really are only looking for a touchdown to hit value.
Nebraska at Minnesota
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Minnesota -2.5
O/U: 47.5
Nebraska
Team Expected Points: 22.5
Nebraska is facing Minnesota’s 15th ranked passing defense this week. After what we have seen from the Nebraska passing game in the last 2 weeks, we have very low confidence levels here and plan to avoid them entirely.
Minnesota
Team Expected Points: 25
QB – Mitch Leidner – 5,300
Analysis: Mitch Leidner fell into a game-flow trap last week as he was only able to pass for a career-low 59 yards on his 12 attempts. Leidner did find the end zone twice, but this yardage total resulting from their heavy focus on the run game was horrible. While Leidner is far from an elite talent, he does bring a very low salary into a great matchup this week against Nebraska’s atrocious secondary ranked last in the nation.
Recommendation: Look for Leidner as a punt GPP play due to his matchup.
Rutgers at Indiana
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Indiana -6.5
O/U: 61.5
Rutgers
Team Expected Points: 27
WR – Leonte Carroo – 7,000
Analysis: Leonte Carroo returned with a statement game last week as he scored all 3 of Rutgers touchdowns behind 7 receptions for 134 yards against the very good Michigan State secondary. When on the field Carroo is obviously the supreme focal point of this offense and has huge upside on a weekly basis. Indiana has given up the third most passing yards per game this season, so Carroo is primed for yet another big performance.
Recommendation: Carroo has very a very solid matchup with a high ceiling, making him a great play in all formats this week.
QB – Chris Laviano – 5,300
Analysis: Chris Laviano’s upside just got a huge bump last week with the return of Leonte Carroo. Laviano threw for 208 yards and 3 touchdowns in this contest against a very tough defense. With Carroo back to throw to, we look for Laviano to have a good amount of upside for his price range. Laviano gets the added bonus this week of facing Indiana’s 126th ranked passing defense. Three touchdowns and 300 yards is certainly in play and would be a monster score for his mere 5,300 salary.
Recommendation: Laviano is a great punt QB2 in all formats this week, ranking very high in our value projections. Try to stack him with Carroo in tournaments if going for the big win.
Indiana
Team Expected Points: 33.5
The Indiana offense remains banged up, shedding question marks around their key starting positions. If we see RB Jordan Howard (6,000) is healthy enough to play, he would immediately be in consideration for both cash and tournaments due to his very affordable price. With a freshman quarterback likely to start, Howard would almost certainly be leaned on for 30+ carries with 100+ yards upside as he showed in his first 4 games this season. Even if Sudfeld makes the start, we still would consider Howard for this price given his track history of monster outings.
Oklahoma at Kansas State
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma -4.5
O/U: 56
Oklahoma
Team Expected Points: 30.25
Oklahoma is coming off what will be their worst loss of the season and a very poor performance against Texas last week. We are not projecting good numbers for their offense this week based on the inconsistency we have seem from this offense so far coupled with the difficult matchup at Kansas State. QB Baker Mayfield (8,000) is the only guy we can slightly trust for a decent performance, but he is priced in a place where we have other guys with much better matchups and higher ceilings to pick from. While WR Sterling Shepard (5,900) is priced below 6,000 for the first time this season, he too has shown big swings in output this season with only one game over 100 yards and 2 games in which he failed to exceed 3 receptions. And RB Samaje Perine’s (6,000) workload has only decreased in recent weeks, reaching a season low 10 carries for only 36 yards last week. He cannot be trusted either going forward.
Kansas State
Team Expected Points: 25.75
QB - Joe Hubener – 5,700
Analysis: Joe Hubener single handedly kept Kansas State in the game last week against TCU, running 26 times for 111 yards and a surprising 4 rushing touchdowns. Hubener has shown the ability to run all season, but nothing has come close to this big of a performance where he was absolutely thrashing the TCU defense. Hubener has a sub-50% completion rate, so he will not be scoring you many points through the air—however his rushing upside makes Hubener very playable, especially seeing that Oklahoma is allowing over 190 rushing yards per game this season.
Recommendation: Hubener is on our list as a GPP play to punt your QB2 position due to his rushing upside.
Virginia Tech at Miami
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Miami -6
O/U: 52
Virginia Tech
Team Expected Points: 23
WR – Isaiah Ford – 5,000
Analysis: Isaiah Ford continues to remain in a very manageable salary range as the WR1 at Virginia Tech. A previous complaint about Ford regarding his lack of red zone usage was definitely addressed as he matched his season total in touchdowns last week, reaching the end zone 3 times from only 4 receptions on the day. While Ford does only have 60 total yards in his last 2 games, he still remains the top option in Virginia Tech’s offense.
Recommendation: Isaiah Ford’s lack of receptions and yards in his last couple of games gives us pause regarding his safety, putting him out of consideration for cash lineups here. Given the favor he saw in the red zone last week however, there is an argument for consideration in GPP’s.
Miami
Team Expected Points: 29
QB – Brad Kaaya – 6,300
Analysis: Brad Kaaya had a career night against Florida State last week as he exceeded 400 yards with 3 touchdowns. Kaaya threw the ball nearly 50 times here as Miami could not establish any running game whatsoever. This week, we expect the Hurricanes to find a little more room to run against Virginia Tech’s 97th ranked rushing defense. While the Virginia Tech passing defense is ranked very highly this season, they really have not faced a strong passing offense yet this season. The Hokies also lost star cornerback Kendall Fuller 2 weeks ago, so this will be their first true test without him since the last 2 games were against heavy rushing offenses. However, they are very deep in their secondary with plenty of talent to put on the field.
Recommendation: Kaaya is reasonably priced, but we are not a fan of the expected game flow since we think Miami tries to establish their rushing game. Given the other options out there, we are steering clear of Kaaya even at this relatively low price.
Oregon State at Washington State
Kickoff: 4:00 PM EST
Spread: Washington State -8
O/U: 58.5
Oregon State
Team Expected Points: 25.5
QB – Seth Collins – 7,100
Analysis: Freshman quarterback Seth Collins really struggled with his passing game last week against Arizona, completing a career-low 33% of his passes for only 56 total yards. Collins did provide some help on the ground as he rushed 10 times for 56 yards and a touchdown. The matchup this week is ideal for Collins to rack up some rushing yards as Washington State’s defense has shown that it can be vulnerable on the ground. Collins did suffer a minor leg injury in last week’s game, but he returned to the game and has practiced normally this week—so that can be considered a non-factor here.
Recommendation: Collins has the rushing upside and matchup to put him in consideration this week. At only 7,100, he is worth a shot at QB2 for salary relief in all formats. While we won’t be overexposed here since it is not an outstanding play, he should make it into a few lineups, particularly tournaments.
Washington State
Team Expected Points: 33.5
The Washington State offense finds itself in a mismatch this week, as their pass-centric attack faces Oregon State’s 24th ranked pass defense. Granted, Oregon State has not played many pass-heavy teams this season, so this ranking could certainly be inflated. On the flip side, Oregon State’s rushing defense is ranked 111th overall as they allow 216 rushing yards per game, including 368 total rushing yards last week to Arizona. While Washington’s backfield can be a bit confusing, we have our eyes on both RB Gerard Wicks (4,000) and RB Jamal Morrow (3,400) as we them having the best shot at receiving more carries—both only as GPP options though. We would not fault a GPP play of either WR River Cracraft (5,400) or WR Dom Williams (5,200) as well due to their deflated pricing. QB Luke Falk (8,900) is priced too high for our liking in this matchup.
Vanderbilt at South Carolina
Kickoff: 4:00 PM EST
Spread: South Carolina -2.5
O/U: 43.5
Vanderbilt
Team Expected Points: 20.75
RB – Ralph Webb – 5,400
Analysis: Ralph Webb has been a workhorse for the Commodores this season, carrying over 108 times through 5 games including 3 games with 25 carries in each. Webb had been putting up very mediocre yardage totals in his first 4 games, but last week against MTSU was an explosion as he ran for 155 yards and a touchdown, averaging 6.2 yards per carry. Webb’s price actually drops this week as he faces the 106th ranked South Carolina rushing defense that was gashed already by both LSU and Georgia for a combined 642 rushing yards and 8 rushing touchdowns. While Vanderbilt’s rushing game is nowhere near that of the Tigers and Bulldogs, we still see Webb finding some room to run with a shot at a touchdown.
Recommendation: Ralph Webb has enough workload upside to be considered in this game, however the low O/U will make us limit exposure to only a few lineups.
South Carolina
Team Expected Points: 23.75
The South Carolina offense has been rather anemic this season as their quarterback play has been very disappointing. WR Pharoh Cooper (6,900) is a talented player, but his price here is far too high considering the downside of who is throwing to him along with the a decent Vanderbilt secondary that held the explosive Western Kentucky passing attack to just over 200 yards in week 1.