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Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 10-10-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 15 (30 teams)
Baylor at Kansas
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Baylor -44
O/U: 77
Baylor
Team Expected Points: 60.5
The Baylor offense is most certainly on blowout-watch this week as they roll into Kansas as a 44 point favorite. As is usual, Baylor comes in with the highest Team Expected Points on the slate at over 60. There are plenty of guys with huge upside in this offense, the first of which being QB Seth Russell (9,800). Russell has been impressive all year, putting up one of his highest scores last week with 4 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing touchdowns with a season-high 81 rushing yards on 12 attempts. We don’t expect as much need for Russell to rush this week as Baylor should get out to a very quick lead, and his upside is certainly at risk due to an early seat on the bench being very probably here. The wide receiving core of WR Corey Coleman (8,600), WR KD Cannon (6,600), and WR Jay Lee (6,200) always has the potential for a big game, which actually scares us from a fantasy perspective as it can be tough to pick who will go off. Coleman is always your safest play, but he is the top priced receiver on the slate in a game where Baylor should not need to pass much. Overall, we are not high on any of them this week due to the blowout factor. And finally, RB Shock Linwood (8,100) should be in for some work in the first half as we expect Baylor to have their way in the run game as Kansas is allowing over 250 rushing yards per game.
Recommendation: The Bears offense is usually safe and always playable in GPP’s. However this week with the 40+ point spread and elevated pricing, it is tough to recommend anyone other than Seth Russell as a solid cash game option due to limited playing time and lack of predictability since Kansas is so outmatched by literally every Baylor starter.
Kansas
Team Expected Points: 16.5
The Kansas offense is not great as they sport a 0-4 record with only 22 points per game on average. We liked the value of RB Ke’aun Kinner (6,100) last week, but he was a big disappointment as he only managed 46 yards and no touchdowns on the day. Kinner has now averaged only 2.6 yards per carry in his last 2 games, and we don’t expect Kansas to have many chances to run the ball as Baylor will be out to a very quick lead.
Illinois at Iowa
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Iowa -11
O/U: 44
Illinois
Team Expected Points: 16.5
Illinois faces a very tough defense in Iowa this week and must do so without their most talented offensive weapon in Josh Ferguson. Backup RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn (5,600) was solid in relief last week as he carried 24 times for 98 yards, but we are avoiding this team as a whole on the road against the red hot Iowa Hawkeyes in a game with a low O/U.
Iowa
Team Expected Points: 27.5
RB - Jordan Canzeri – 5,800
Analysis: This Iowa team is led by their tough defense—they do not have many flashy weapons to display on offense. Running back Jordan Canzeri has received between 22-26 carries and rushed for over 100 yards in 3 of his 5 games this season, including a 125-yard performance against one of the run defenses in football last week (Wisconsin). His matchup does not get much better this week facing Illinois as they have also been tough on the run, but they did allow 187 rushing yards to Nebraska last week—so vulnerability is certainly there.
Recommendation: Canzeri is attractively priced here and makes for a solid play in both GPP and cash formats.
Indiana at Penn State
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Penn State -6.5
O/U: 54.5
Indiana
Team Expected Points: 24
The Indiana offense is banged up at the quarterback and running back positions as they face a stout Penn State defense allowing only 284 yards and 15.8 points per game this season. Outside of a GPP shot on WR Ricky Jones (5,800) due to his WR1 status, we would have to recommend fading this offense.
Penn State
Team Expected Points: 30.5
TE – Mike Gesicki – 2,300
Analysis: We don’t have many premium options at tight end in this slate. Sophomore Mike Gesicki provides you with great size and the ability to catch downfield as we saw with his 33-yard touchdown reception from last week.
Recommendation: While Gesicki only has 7 receptions on the year, he is worth the punt as the tight end position is very thin here.
South Carolina at LSU
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: LSU -19
O/U: 50
South Carolina
Team Expected Points: 15.75
This South Carolina offense has really struggled to get anything going on offense this season. Freshman QB Lorenzo Nunez (6,500) has some dual threat upside, but he looked horrible as a passer last week as he threw 3 interceptions on his way to 172 yards. LSU has a great defense and should dominate time of possession on offense in this game, limiting the upside of anyone on the South Carolina offense.
LSU
Team Expected Points: 34.25
RB – Leonard Fournette – 10,000
Analysis: Leonard Fournette is the man. Even in a week where we thought he could be limited due to the blowout factor, LSU was still pounding the rock with Fournette into the 4th quarter as he racked up 233 yards and 3 touchdowns. Fournette is averaging 216 yards per game this season, and he goes into a solid matchup this week against a South Carolina team that allowed Nick Chubb to average 7.6 yards per carry on his way to 159 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 3. Fournette is literally all LSU has on offense, so expect him to carry 25+ times with plenty of upside on the day
Recommendation: Fournette is the safest play you can have on offense, but he will definitely cost you as he is the highest priced player at any position on this slate. We do think there is better value at the position on this slate, but gaining some exposure to Fournette in a few lineups is never a bad idea.
Maryland at Ohio State
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Ohio State -33
O/U: 54.5
Maryland
Team Expected Points: 10.75
We cannot recommend anyone on this struggling Maryland offense with one of the lowest Team Expected Points on the slate
Ohio State
Team Expected Points: 43.75
QB Cardale Jones - 7,900
The Maryland defense is atrocious, allowing right at 450 yards per game and 31.8 points per game so far this season. This Ohio State team has really underperformed all year on offense, so this game has “get-right” written all over it as this should be the weakest defense the Buckeyes face all season. Cardale Jones has not put up the numbers we would expect this year given what he showed us at the end of the 2014 season. He has failed to exceed 300 yards or 2 touchdowns all season while averaging 1 interception per game and hardly any rushing yards outside of week 1.
Recommendation: Cardale’s price here is certainly down, but recent performance combined with the general lack of a need to pass in this game keeps Cardale on our GPP-only list yet again this week.
RB Ezekiel Elliott – 9,400
Analysis: As Ohio State faced their biggest scare thus far this season last week, Ezekiel Elliott met the challenge head on with a career performance that literally carried the Buckeyes to victory. With touchdown runs of 55, 65, and 75, Elliott ripped through the Indiana defense on his way to a career-high 274 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. Elliott has now exceeded 100 yards in all 5 games this season, something we certainly expected out of this Heisman hopeful coming into the season. The Maryland defense is allowing right at 200 rushing yards per game this season, so our only concern would be Ezekiel taking an early seat in what should be an absolute rout.
Recommendation: While Leonard Fournette is definitely your safest play at running back, Elliott is right up there with him. He is again very expensive, but a great play to consider working in for all formats.
Oklahoma at Texas
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma -17
O/U: 60.5
Oklahoma
Team Expected Points: 38.75
QB Baker Mayfield - 8,900
Analysis: Baker Mayfield heads into the Red River Showdown against what is the worst Texas team we have seen in decades. The Longhorns defense is ranked at the bottom of the league as they have allowed nearly 300 passing yards and over 200 rushing yards per game. Mayfield has solid numbers this year as he ranks 5th in overall QBR with 1400 yards, 13 touchdowns, and only 3 interceptions while averaging over 10 yards per pass attempt. Mayfield has huge upside, with the potential to rip through the Texas defense. As an added bonus, this is a rivalry game, so we could see Oklahoma really run up the score
Recommendation: Mayfield is a very safe play with plenty of upside in this matchup. He is priced up as 4th highest on the slate, but still comes in as a decent value option for us.
WR – Sterling Shepard – 7,400, Dede Westbrook – 6,100
Analysis: Sterling Shepard cooled off last week with only 2 receptions for 35 yards, however he still found the end zone for a touchdown to help his points total. While we have not yet seen a huge game out of Shepard, he has shown serious upside with high target volume along with end zone looks as this team’s WR1. Dede Westbrook has at least 3 receptions for 40 yards in every game this season, with his yardage total increasing each game along with 5 receptions in each of his last 2 games. Last week against West Virginia, Westbrook eclipsed the 100-yard mark for the first time in his college career as he led the team in both receptions and yards. Westbrook’s main downside here is lack of red zone targets, as he only has 1 touchdown this season compared to Shepard’s 3.
Recommendation: Both Shepard and Westbrook are priced higher than we would like to see in this slate, making them both fades in favor of cheaper options here.
TE – Mark Andrews – 3,000
Analysis: Andrews has put up solid numbers in the 3 games he has played in this season, catching 8 balls for 154 yards and 3 touchdowns. He is clearly in consideration for red zone opportunities, and Andrews has big-play potential as we saw by a 61-yard catch in week 3 against Tulsa.
Recommendation: Andrews will be your higher priced option at tight end on the slate. We expect Oklahoma to put up points in this premium matchup, so feel free to pay up for him as a slightly safer play than Penn State’s Mike Gesicki.
Texas
Team Expected Points: 21.75
Texas football is in a really bad spot right now. With the quarterback and running back positions up in the air facing a stout Oklahoma defense, we plan to fade them entirely in this slate.
Massachusetts at Bowling Green
Kickoff: 2:00 PM EST
Spread: Bowling Green -13.5
O/U: 79
Massachusetts
Team Expected Points: 32.25
Massachusetts is full of fantasy relevance this week against the sub-par Bowling Green offense in what we expect to be a shootout. Led by QB Blake Frohnapfel (6,900), Massachusetts runs a relatively high tempo pass-centric offense. While they average only 22 points per game, the Minutemen are poised for a big performance this week against Bowling Green’s 118th ranked pass defense. Frohnapfel’s had his best game of the season last week against Florida International as he completed 76% of his passes for 363 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a season-first 0 interceptions.
Frohnapfel’s favorite target, by far, has been WR Tajae Sharpe (6,800). Sharpe has over twice as many receptions (45) as the next receiver on the team, and he is on pace for over 1000 yards this season. The one downside to Sharpe is his lack of touchdowns as he only made it in for the first time last week, but he has exceeded 10 receptions in 3 of 4 games this year, so that easily can make up for an end zone miss. WR2 Marken Michel (5,000) is also in play here due to the matchup. Michel has increased his receptions by 1 each week as he has his best game of the season with a 7 / 113 / 2 stat line last week.
Recommendation: Some of our best values of the week come out of this game, including quarterback Blake Frohnapfel along with both of his receivers Sharpe and Michel. All 3 are in play for all formats, with Michel giving you some big salary relief at near-minimum price. Frohnapfel and Sharpe can be considered our projected #1 value stack from this slate.
Bowling Green
Team Expected Points: 45.25
Bowling Green is another potent offense that we always must consider on a weekly basis. QB Matt Johnson (9,300) has thrown the ball more than any other quarterback in the league as he leads the FBS with 236 attempts for 2084 yards. Johnson has exceeded 400 yards in all but 1 game this season and has multi-touchdown upside in each and every outing. In his last home game this year, Johnson put up 443 yards and 4 touchdowns—so seeing that UMass is allowing over 37 points per game this season, Johnson is certainly in play.
WR Roger Lewis (8,200) is the WR1 for the Falcons, and he also presents some extreme upside this week. Coming off a 200-yard 10-catch game against Buffalo, Lewis has great momentum to keep that going this week. We have him projected as the highest scoring receiver on the slate. WR Ronnie Moore (6,000) and WR Ryan Burbrink (5,500) are both also in play as salary relief options with plenty of upside.
Although the Falcons obviously love to pass the ball, they continue to involve RB Travis Greene (6,300) from week to week as he is averaging over 13 carries per game this season. Greene doesn’t have as much allure as other plays in this game, but he is in play as an option at that price tier.
Recommendation: Both Matt Johnson and Roger Lewis are top plays at their positions. You will be paying up for each, but they have extremely high ceilings with Lewis being our top projected play at the receiver position.
Georgia Tech at Clemson
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Clemson -7
O/U: 54.5
Georgia Tech
Team Expected Points: 23.75
Georgia Tech is in a tough spot this week as they visit Clemson. This is not a good matchup as Clemson’s defense has been very solid this season allowing just over 14 points per game. Most players on Georgia Tech’s offense will be touchdown-dependent due to the sheer volume of carries that are spread around. RB Patrick Skov (5,300) is a bruising between-the-tackles runner who’s style has not lend itself to big plays this year as he only has one run over 20 yards on the season. QB Justin Thomas (7,200) is the only player we could even think about considering here, but we just cannot safely predict a solid performance, relegating him to a GPP-only play if looking for diversification and low ownership.
Clemson
Team Expected Points: 30.75
QB – Deshaun Watson – 8,800
Analysis: Deshaun Watson has really been underperforming his salary from a fantasy perspective as of late. This game against Georgia Tech presents a decent opportunity for him as we saw Georgia Tech allow North Carolina’s Marquise Williams to run for nearly 150 yards and 2 touchdowns on them last week. Deshaun Watson has a very similar playstyle to Williams, but with much more explosiveness with his rushing game. Our main concern, as usual, would be the slower tempo expected in this game with as much as Georgia Tech rushes the ball.
Recommendation: Watson could put up very big numbers here if he takes the game into his own hands, but he is priced up there with some of the more elite fantasy options on this slate. Watson would be a great GPP play as his ownership may be depressed due to the guys with flashier stats being chosen over him.
RB – Wayne Gallman – 6,600
Analysis: Wayne Gallman is the clear feature back in Clemson’s offense, rushing for 20+ carries in each of his last 2 games. Gallman failed to find the end zone in each, but he put up a combined 237 yards with a respectable 5.1 yards per carry. Georgia Tech will really slow the game down, but their mediocre rushing defense has shown its vulnerability as evident in the Notre Dame game CJ Prosise rushed for nearly 200 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Recommendation: Gallman should get his chances, but his upside may be slightly limited due to the slower tempo expected here. His price is relatively low, but not a safe enough play for cash games. Feel free to differentiate with him for a GPP lineup.
Iowa State at Texas Tech
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Texas Tech -12
O/U: 74
Iowa State
Team Expected Points: 31
RB –Mike Warren– 6,200
Analysis: Mike Warren finds himself in another favorable matchup this week. Warren put up a career performance last week against Kansas as he rushed 18 times for 175 yards and 2 touchdowns in addition to a season-high 3 receptions. Warren was the center of their offensive attack last week, and we expect nothing less against a similarly weak Texas Tech defense this time around.
Recommendation: Warren’s price was substantially adjusted up after last week’s performance. He is not nearly as great of a value this week for cash games, but can still be considered for tournaments due to his favorable matchup.
Texas Tech
Team Expected Points: 43
The Texas Tech offense continued to roll last week in their losing effort against Baylor as they put up over 600 total yards of offense. QB Patrick Mahomes (8,600) exceeded 400 yards with 4 touchdowns through the air and 1 touchdown on the ground. Mahomes always has a chance to put up big points, but we are expecting some regression this week as he is in a tougher matchup against Iowa State. The wide receiving core is all over the place, with multiple guys able to contribute each and every week. For that we are not recommending any Texas Tech receivers in cash formats, WR Zach Austin (5,700) burst onto the scene with a team-high 8 receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown last week—so he could be an intriguing under-owned play in tournaments.
Recommendation: Mahomes has upside for tournaments here along with the safety we look for in cash formats. However, there are quite a few other plays near or below his price point that we are projecting as better plays here.
Minnesota at Purdue
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Minnesota -3
O/U: 45.5
Minnesota
Team Expected Points: 24.5
RB – Rodney Smith – 6,000
Analysis: This game has a low O/U, but Minnesota is in a decent spot here against struggling Purdue defense that is near the bottom of the league in rushing yards allowed per game. Enter Rodney Smith, Minnesota’s starting running back. Smith has had some decent games on the ground this season, including one game over 100 yards along with 3 games above 5 yards per carry. While Smith has only reached the end zone once this year and will be threatened for carries by freshman standout Shannon Brooks, Smith’s primary upside comes from what we have seen of his usage in the passing game with his couple of 4-catch games thus far this season. You can throw out last week against the elite Northwestern defense--we expect Smith to be involved and contribute enough to hit value this week against Purdue.
Recommendation: Smith is priced down at only 6,000 this week, so it only takes a few receptions and a decent rushing performance for him to hit value and provide great salary relief in your lineup. Smith is in play for all formats.
QB – Mitch Leidner – 6,400
Analysis: Mitch Leidner is certainly not a high upside play as he rarely exceeds 1 touchdown in a game and has failed to surpass 300 passing yards this season. However, Leidner’s price is way down after being stomped last week against Northwestern. Purdue’s defense is not very good and Leidner is very cheap, so he hits out radar as a pure punt play this week.
Recommendation: If looking for a punt at quarterback, Leidner is our pick as he is cheap and facing a bad Purdue defense. He will not need much to hit value here. However, consider that Blake Frohnapfel is only 500 more, and we would strongly prefer him in cash games above Leidner.
Purdue
Team Expected Points: 21.5
RB Markell Jones – 5,900, DJ Knox – 5,600
Analysis: Purdue is in a tough spot against Minnesota this week. Their running game carries the offense, and freshman Markell Jones had a ton of success against the elite Michigan State defense as he carried 22 times for 157 yards and 2 touchdowns. This was Jones’ first start, and he showed he can produce in a very tough matchup. DJ Knox figures to be more involved this week as he did suffer an injury last week that limited him to only 2 carries on the day. The coach has stated that Knox remains atop the depth chart, but you certainly have to consider that Jones will eat heavily into those carries.
Recommendation: Both of these backs are in in a tough spot, so we aren’t projecting a ton of points—however Jones has scored 5 touchdowns in 5 games this year along with a couple of 4-reception outings, so he could be worth a shot in GPP’s
Navy at Notre Dame
Kickoff: 2:30 PM EST
Spread: Notre Dame -14.5
O/U: 55
Navy
Team Expected Points: 20.25
For fantasy purposes, only one player can be considered for Navy, and that is QB Keenan Reynolds (8,900). Reynolds is the definition of a rushing quarterback, as he has attempted nearly 3 times as many rushes as he has passes on the season with 488 yards on the ground to only 265 yards passing. Reynolds has been able to carry his team against inferior opponents this season, so this will be his first true test against the tough Notre Dame defense. Reynolds is a GPP-only play due to his rushing upside. Reynolds is substantially overpriced for us to consider in cash games since he could very easily be shut down due to his one-dimensional ability.
Notre Dame
Team Expected Points: 34.75
WR – Will Fuller – 7,700
Analysis: While Will Fuller’s production has really dropped off in the past 2 games (only 6 receptions for 94 yards and 1 touchdown), he still is considered one of the better receivers in the game. Notre Dame had a tough matchup against Clemson last week, but Fuller should be in for a bounce-back as they are 2-touchdown favorites over an unproven Navy team. While we aren’t projecting a huge game since Notre Dame will not need to pass often, we still think Fuller has touchdown upside for consideration this week.
Recommendation: We are not projecting elite numbers from Fuller in this game due to Notre Dame’s focus on the rushing game. There are many other higher upside options available than Fuller, so we endorse the fade this week.
RB – CJ Prosise – 8,500
Analysis: CJ Prosise has been dominant as of late, amassing at least 149 yards of total offense in each of his last 4 games. For a 3-week stretch in weeks 2-5, Prosise averaged at least 9 yards per carry on the ground. Last week, despite Prosise being limited to only 50 yards rushing, he showed us an entirely new dimension of his game as he proceeded to catch 4 passes for 100 yards and a touchdown. A running back with clear 100+ rushing yard upside who can also make big plays in the passing game will always be on our radar for fantasy consideration.
Recommendation: While we think CJ Prosise has a very solid day, his price was really bumped up due to his recent success. While we think Prosise is excellent in tournament formats, we would not endorse paying up in cash games as this game should be slow tempo and may get out of hand by halftime. We would prefer Chubb at this same price.
Northwestern at Michigan
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Michigan -7.5
O/U: 35
This game has one of the lowest O/U’s we have seen all season. We want no part of these offenses from a fantasy perspective, as the upside is about as low as it can be here.
Georgia at Tennessee
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Georgia -3
O/U: 59.5
Georgia
Team Expected Points: 31.25
RB Nick Chubb - 8,600, Sony Michel – 5,400
Analysis: This Georgia team firmly led by their running game with Nick Chubb at the helm. As the Bulldogs enter Neyland stadium against a struggling Tennessee team, we fully expect them to lean heavily on this rushing game as their passing offense has been very suspect this season. Arkansas’s Alex Collins ran all over the Volunteers for 154 yards and 2 touchdowns last week, so Chubb certainly has top-level upside in this matchup.
Recommendation: Nick Chubb has top level upside in this game as we expect Georgia to lean heavily on him. Chubb is a solid play in all formats. Sony Michel would be a GPP-only play in hopes of a few vulture touchdowns or garbage time yardage.
Tennessee
Team Expected Points: 28.25
QB - Joshua Dobbs – 8,600
Analysis: Joshua Dobbs continues to perplex us with his performances from week to week. He has obviously shown immense upside with his rushing ability (i.e. 18 for 136 yards against Florida), however he then turns around and rushes for only 7 yards against Arkansas last week. Dobbs has provided us with zero confidence in his passing ability thus far this season, so we have little confidence in his ability facing the talented Georgia secondary this week. Georgia has been shutting teams down outside of the Alabama game this year, so Dobbs is far from a safe play in this contest.
Recommendation: Dobbs is a GPP play only due to his rushing ability upside. It is hard to trust him at this price in cash games.
RB - Jalen Hurd - 7,200
Analysis: Jalen Hurd’s streak of a touchdown in every game this season was broken last week against the tough Arkansas defense. Even with the matchup however, Hurd still managed to average 4.7 yards per carry for 90 yards on the day. It was very encouraging to see Hurd’s season-high 3 receptions for 51 yards as well since we haven’t yet seen the reception upside he had last season.
Recommendation: Jalen Hurd is in play here due to the focus he gets in Tennessee’s offensive system, especially as Dobbs struggles to pass the ball. However given his matchup with the talented Georgia defense, we can’t trust that Hurd will safely pay off his salary in cash games.
TE – Ethan Wolf – 3,000
Analysis: While Tennessee has struggled in the passing game, Ethan Wolf has shown some solid utilization with 12 receptions for 157 yards and 2 touchdowns this season. Wolf’s 2 touchdowns both came in the season opener however, and given the struggles we have seen by Dobbs, he may not get many chances in this game either.
Recommendation: Wolf has shown he can make it in the end zone, but his lack of recent success relegates him to a contrarian GPP risk only.
Wisconsin at Nebraska
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Nebraska -1.5
O/U: 48.5
Wisconsin
Team Expected Points: 23.5
RB - Taiwan Deal - 6,100, Dare Ogunbowale – 6,100
Analysis: The Wisconsin offense did not look sharp last week against a solid Iowa defense as they failed to score a single touchdown in their first loss of the season. The passing game has been lackluster all year as they’ve barely exceeded 1000 yards through 5 games, While Taiwan Deal and Dare Ogunbowale will continue to compete for carries, Deal has seemingly been first in line for the majority share as he has received at least 14 carries in each of the last 4 games and shown the most explosiveness of the two. Dare’s upside comes from his usage in the passing game, as he has 14 receptions to Deal’s 1 on the season. Nebraska has the worst passing defense in the league, so there could be some potential here.
Recommendation: Nebraska is immensely tough on the run, allowing a Power-5 best 2.2 yards per rush outside the tackles this season. Taiwan Deal is in a tough spot, and with FanDuel’s lack of focus on receptions, Dare Ogunbowale does not project as a solid play either.
WR – Alex Ericson – 6,100, Robert Wheelwright – 5,000
Analysis: Alex Ericson is the clear-cut WR1 in Wisconsin’s offense that we expect will need to pass as they face the lopsided Nebraska defense that is tough on the run but absolutely porous against the pass (ranked last in FBS). The Wisconsin passing game is not great, but anyone can look good through the air against the Cornhuskers. Be cautious however, as Ericson suffered a concussion and has not yet participated in team drills as of Thursday. If Ericson is out, Robert Wheelwright appears to be next in line for targets.
Recommendation: Erikson is more of a GPP play due to matchup, as the Wisconsin passing offense is tough to trust. IF Ericson is confirmed out before game time, Wheelwright becomes a very sneaky punt play due to low ownership expected.
Nebraska
Team Expected Points: 25
QB – Tommy Armstrong Jr – 7,800
Analysis: Armstrong really struggled last week against Illinois as he only completed 32.5% of his passes for just around 100 yards total. To his defense, the weather was absolutely horrible in this matchup. Armstrong can bring another dimension to the game with his rushing upside in addition to the potential for big days through the air. Wisconsin has a great defense, but this will be their first real test against a passing offense.
Recommendation: Armstrong is priced at an acceptable level, but he is too much of a risk for us to recommend as your quarterback considering how well the Wisconsin defense has actually performed.
WR – Jordan Westerkamp – 6,600, Brandon Reilly – 5,500
Analysis: Westerkamp was absolutely silenced last week against Illinois, catching only 1 of his 5 targets for a 1-yard loss on the day. WR2 Brandon Reilly was not able to manage much production either as he caught only 1 pass for16 yards. The entire receiving core was hurt as the horrible weather conditions led to a very sloppy quarterback play. Their defensive matchup doesn’t improve much here against a Wisconsin team that has allowed only 1 touchdown to the wide receiver position all season (Week 1 vs Alabama), however we have to consider that Wisconsin has not seen a team anywhere close to Nebraska’s caliber in passing ability thus far—and that is saying a lot, as Nebraska is not exactly top-tier…
Recommendation: Westerkamp’s price does not seem to reflect what he brings to the table this week—we are not projecting enough to consider either him nor Reilly playable in this slate.
Oregon State at Arizona
Kickoff: 4:00 PM EST
Spread: Arizona -9.5
O/U: 61.5
Oregon State
Team Expected Points: 26
QB – Seth Collins – 7,100
Analysis: Freshman quarterback Seth Collins is continuing to develop as a passer this season as he has improved in every game thus far. Collins has a premium matchup this week against the 104th ranked Arizona passing defense, so he is on our radar as a sneaky play in a very good situation.
Recommendation: Collins actually grades out very high on our value scale this week as he is priced down in a great situation. While he is rather risky to roll out in cash games, Collins could be a great under-owned option for GPP’s, especially when stacked with one of his wide receivers.
WR – Jordan Villamin – 5,900, Victor Bolden – 5,900
Analysis: While Jordan Villamin had a break-out game in their last matchup with Stanford (7 / 138 / 1), Victor Bolden has continued to vastly underperform what we were expecting coming into the season. While Bolden has been getting some opportunities, he just has not been able to explode as he is only averaging 5.4 yards per catch compared to Villamin’s 16.4 YPC. We are seeing Seth Collins continue to develop as a passer as they really bumped up the pass attempts in the loss last week, so we see Villamin getting plenty of opportunities in this game that Oregon State is expected to trail in as well.
Recommendation: Villamin is a decent value play with touchdown upside, more playable in a stack with Collins in GPP formats. We cannot trust Bolden here, especially since he is priced equal to Villamin.
Arizona
Team Expected Points: 35.5
RB - Nick Wilson – 8,100
Analysis: Nick Wilson had been on a monster run averaging nearly 140 yards per game in the 4 games leading up to last week. Then, Stanford rained on his parade as Wilson really struggled with 2.7 yards per carry for 46 yards and a touchdown. However we are not writing Wilson off because of one rough game against a historically top-5 run defense in Stanford. Wilson’s matchup this week is vastly improved, as Oregon State is allowing nearly 180 rushing yards per game. In their two competitive matchups this season, Oregon State allowed De’Veon Smith (Michigan) to run 23 times for 126 yards and 3 touchdowns. Then, in their last contest, Oregon State allowed Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) to run 30 times for a whopping 206 yards. Wilson should receive at least 20 carries in this game with a very solid chance at exceeding 100 yards with at least 1 touchdown.
Recommendation: Wilson is a really good play here due to his workload upside and solid matchup with plenty of chances to score. He has top level upside in this matchup and is priced below the other elite running backs on the slate. We will have some exposure to Wilson in quite a few lineups.
