Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 10-10-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 17 (34 teams)
Baylor at Kansas
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Baylor -44
O/U: 77
Baylor
Team Expected Points: 60.5
The Baylor offense is most certainly on blowout-watch this week as they roll into Kansas as a 44 point favorite. As is usual, Baylor comes in with the highest Team Expected Points on the slate at over 60. There are plenty of guys with huge upside in this offense, the first of which being QB Seth Russell (9,300). Russell has been impressive all year, putting up one of his highest scores last week with 4 passing touchdowns and 2 rushing touchdowns with a season-high 81 rushing yards on 12 attempts. We don’t expect as much need for Russell to rush this week as Baylor should get out to a very quick lead, and his upside is certainly at risk due to an early seat on the bench being very probably here. The wide receiving core of WR Corey Coleman (7,900), WR KD Cannon (5,700), and WR Jay Lee (5,900) always has the potential for a big game, which actually scares us from a fantasy perspective as it can be tough to pick who will go off. Coleman is always your safest play, but he is the top priced receiver on the slate in a game where Baylor should not need to pass much. Overall, we are not high on any of them this week due to the blowout factor. And finally, RB Shock Linwood (7,900) should be in for some work in the first half as we expect Baylor to have their way in the run game as Kansas is allowing over 250 rushing yards per game.
Recommendation: The Bears offense is usually safe and always playable in GPP’s. However this week with the 40+ point spread and elevated pricing, it is tough to recommend anyone as a solid cash game option due to limited playing time and lack of predictability since Kansas is so outmatched by literally every Baylor starter.
Kansas
Team Expected Points: 16.5
The Kansas offense is not great as they sport an 0-4 record with only 22 points per game on average. We liked the value of RB Ke’aun Kinner (4,200) last week, but he was a big disappointment as he only managed 46 yards and no touchdowns on the day. Kinner has now averaged only 2.6 yards per carry in his last 2 games, and we don’t expect Kansas to have many chances to run the ball as Baylor will be out to a very quick lead.
Illinois at Iowa
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Iowa -11
O/U: 44
Illinois
Team Expected Points: 16.5
Illinois faces a very tough defense in Iowa this week and must do so without their most talented offensive weapon in Josh Ferguson. Backup RB Ke’Shawn Vaughn (4,500) was solid in relief last week as he carried 24 times for 98 yards, but we are avoiding this team as a whole on the road against the red hot Iowa Hawkeyes in a game with a low O/U.
Iowa
Team Expected Points: 27.5
RB - Jordan Canzeri - 6,200
Analysis: This Iowa team is led by their tough defense—they do not have many flashy weapons to display on offense. Running back Jordan Canzeri has received between 22-26 carries and rushed for over 100 yards in 3 of his 5 games this season, including a 125-yard performance against one of the run defenses in football last week (Wisconsin). His matchup does not get much better this week facing Illinois as they have also been tough on the run, but they did allow 187 rushing yards to Nebraska last week—so vulnerability is certainly there.
Recommendation: Canzeri is priced higher than we would like given his matchup, but he worth a shot in GPP’s due to his workload upside--especially as Iowa comes in as a double digit favorite at home.
Indiana at Penn State
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Penn State -6.5
O/U: 54.5
Indiana
Team Expected Points: 24
The Indiana offense is banged up at the quarterback and running back positions as they face a stout Penn State defense allowing only 284 yards and 15.8 points per game this season. Outside of a GPP shot on WR Ricky Jones (4,000) due to his WR1 status, we would have to recommend fading this offense.
Penn State
Team Expected Points: 30.5
The Penn State offense is in a better position than Indiana for sure, as the Hoosier defense is giving up over 500 yards and 30 points per game. However, Penn State’s offensive style does not typically lend itself to high-scoring fantasy relevance. We can never count on big scores from their players, but given the combination of injuries, a great matchup, and depressed pricing, we could endorse a play of RB Nick Scott (4,300) if we are certain that both Akeel Lynch and Shaquon Barkley are ruled out. Scott will likely not get more than 15 carries, so he will be touchdown dependent to put up a big score for you. He makes for a decent punt play in cash games, but we would avoid in GPP due to lack of workload.
South Carolina at LSU
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: LSU -19
O/U: 50
South Carolina
Team Expected Points: 15.75
This South Carolina offense has really struggled to get anything going on offense this season. Freshman QB Lorenzo Nunez (5,800) has some dual threat upside, but he looked horrible as a passer last week as he threw 3 interceptions on his way to 172 yards. LSU has a great defense and should dominate time of possession on offense in this game, limiting the upside of anyone on the South Carolina offense.
LSU
Team Expected Points: 34.25
RB – Leonard Fournette – 9,900
Analysis: Leonard Fournette is the man. Even in a week where we thought he could be limited due to the blowout factor, LSU was still pounding the rock with Fournette into the 4th quarter as he racked up 233 yards and 3 touchdowns. Fournette is averaging 216 yards per game this season, and he goes into a solid matchup this week against a South Carolina team that allowed Nick Chubb to average 7.6 yards per carry on his way to 159 yards and 2 touchdowns in week 3. Fournette is literally all LSU has on offense, so expect him to carry 25+ times with plenty of upside on the day
Recommendation: Fournette is the safest play you can have on offense, but he will definitely cost you as he is the highest priced player at any position on this slate. With as tight as the pricing is on DraftKings, it’s tough to pay up here—but if you take a shot on some of the cheaper guys we have called out, you can make it work. Feel free to roll with Fournette in all formats.
Maryland at Ohio State
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Ohio State -33
O/U: 54.5
Maryland
Team Expected Points: 10.75
We cannot recommend anyone on this struggling Maryland offense with one of the lowest Team Expected Points on the slate
Ohio State
Team Expected Points: 43.75
QB Cardale Jones - 6,900
The Maryland defense is atrocious, allowing right at 450 yards per game and 31.8 points per game so far this season. This Ohio State team has really underperformed all year on offense, so this game has “get-right” written all over it as this should be the weakest defense the Buckeyes face all season. Cardale Jones has not put up the numbers we would expect this year given what he showed us at the end of the 2014 season. He has failed to exceed 300 yards or 2 touchdowns all season while averaging 1 interception per game and hardly any rushing yards outside of week 1.
Recommendation: Cardale’s price here is way down, but recent performance combined with the general lack of a need to pass in this game keeps Cardale on our GPP-only list yet again this week.
RB Ezekiel Elliott – 8,500
Analysis: As Ohio State faced their biggest scare thus far this season last week, Ezekiel Elliott met the challenge head on with a career performance that literally carried the Buckeyes to victory. With touchdown runs of 55, 65, and 75, Elliott ripped through the Indiana defense on his way to a career-high 274 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. Elliott has now exceeded 100 yards in all 5 games this season, something we certainly expected out of this Heisman hopeful coming into the season. The Maryland defense is allowing right at 200 rushing yards per game this season, so our only concern would be Ezekiel taking an early seat in what should be an absolute rout.
Recommendation: While Leonard Fournette is definitely your safest play at running back, Elliott is a close second who provides some salary relief with elite-level upside. He is a great play in all formats.
Middle Tennessee at Western Kentucky
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Western Kentucky -8.5
O/U: 65.5
Middle Tennessee
Team Expected Points: 30
QB – Brent Stockstill – 7,200
Analysis: Middle Tennessee quarterback Brent Stockstill has thrown the ball a ton this year—he actually has only 1 less pass attempt than Western Kentucky’s Brandon Doughty on the season (192 to 193 attempts). In his more favorable matchups against Charlotte and Jackson State this year, Stockstill passed for over 700 yards with 9 touchdowns, 82.5% accuracy, and only 1 interception. Western Kentucky is definitely an ideal matchup, ranked 110th in pass defense allowing 266 yards per game. This should be a relatively close game in which MTSU keeps it close, so we expect Stockstill to have a great day.
Recommendation: Stockstill is a mid-priced quarterback with substantial upside on the day. He is a solid play in all formats.
WR - Ed’Marques Batties - 6,800, Richie James – 6,500
Analysis: Batties has had a very solid season this year with some very big scores to boast. In his last 2 contests, Batties has managed double digit receptions while scoring at least 1 touchdown. Batties now has 40 receptions, 528 yards, and 8 touchdowns thru 5 games this year. While Richie James has been a threat for targets, Batties is a clear red zone and downfield passing target with much more upside for the price than James.
Recommendation: Batties is priced up as the 4th highest wide receiver on the slate. He is in a very good spot, so the pricing is justified making Batties a great option to consider for all formats, especially if stacking with Brent Stockstill in tournaments.
Western Kentucky
Team Expected Points: 38.5
QB – Brandon Doughty – 9,500
Analysis: Brandon Doughty has been electric lately, passing for over 400 yards in his last 4 games and 10 touchdowns in only his last 2 games. While his matchup is not great as MTSU is allowing just over 3 touchdowns per game, Doughty has a solid shot at big numbers here. Our only issue is that Doughty comes in as the top priced quarterback on the slate, so he will need a lot to hit value here.
Recommendation: Doughty is priced way up there this week in a less than favorable matchup. We plan to fade Doughty in favor of cheaper plays at the position.
WR / TE – Tyler Higbee – 4,800
Analysis: Tyler Higbee is the most dominant player at the tight end position this season, amassing 408 yards in 28 receptions for 5 touchdowns. Since Higbee is a tight end, his price is always depressed with this week being no exception. Higbee did have a down week with only 2 receptions for 54 yards in his last game, but he did manage to find the end zone for the third consecutive week. Higbee consistently garners red zone attention and is a focal point of this potent passing offense.
Recommendation: Higbee provides solid value for you to save on salary cap this week. He does not have top WR upside, but his consistent usage makes Higbee very playable in cash game formats.
Oklahoma at Texas
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma -17
O/U: 60.5
Oklahoma
Team Expected Points: 38.75
QB Baker Mayfield - 8,300
Analysis: Baker Mayfield heads into the Red River Showdown against what is the worst Texas team we have seen in decades. The Longhorns defense is ranked at the bottom of the league as they have allowed nearly 300 passing yards and over 200 rushing yards per game. Mayfield has solid numbers this year as he ranks 5th in overall QBR with 1400 yards, 13 touchdowns, and only 3 interceptions while averaging over 10 yards per pass attempt. Mayfield has huge upside, with the potential to rip through the Texas defense. As an added bonus, this is a rivalry game, so we could see Oklahoma really run up the score
Recommendation: Mayfield is a very safe play with plenty of upside at a second tier in price compared to the top quarterbacks no the slate. He is playable in all formats this week.
WR – Sterling Shepard – 6,200, Dede Westbrook – 4,500
Analysis: Sterling Shepard cooled off last week with only 2 receptions for 35 yards, however he still found the end zone for a touchdown to help his points total. While we have not yet seen a huge game out of Shepard, he has shown serious upside with high target volume along with end zone looks as this team’s WR1. Dede Westbrook has at least 3 receptions for 40 yards in every game this season, with his yardage total increasing each game along with 5 receptions in each of his last 2 games. Last week against West Virginia, Westbrook eclipsed the 100-yard mark for the first time in his college career as he led the team in both receptions and yards. Westbrook’s main downside here is lack of red zone targets, as he only has 1 touchdown this season compared to Shepard’s 3.
Recommendation: We are projecting Shepard as a decent value at his lowest price of the season in this spot. Dede Westbrook can serve as a punt option; however there are some other guys below his price point with much better value.
Texas
Team Expected Points: 21.75
Texas football is in a really bad spot right now. With the quarterback and running back positions up in the air facing a stout Oklahoma defense, we plan to fade them entirely in this slate.
Virginia at Pittsburgh
Kickoff: 12:30 PM EST
Spread: Pittsburgh -10.5
O/U: 46.5
Virginia
Team Expected Points: 18
We generally have no interest in the Virginia offense against a very impressive Pittsburgh defense. The only play I could recommend is their #1 WR Canaan Severin (4,300) as a punt in GPP’s due to his low price and upside to catch some big passes as he showed in Week 2 against Notre Dame (11 / 153 / 0).
Pittsburgh
Team Expected Points: 28.5
RB – Qadree Ollison- 5,200
Analysis: Qadree Ollison had a great game last week as he rushed 19 times for 122 yards against Virginia Tech. With injuries throughout the Pittsburgh backfield, Ollison is now listed as the sole starter this week, so we should expect a very solid amount of carries coming his way in this game that Pittsburgh should dominate facing a very mediocre Virginia defense.
Recommendation: Ollison is a great value and playable in all formats considering the workload we would expect him to receive this week.
Massachusetts at Bowling Green
Kickoff: 2:00 PM EST
Spread: Bowling Green -13.5
O/U: 79
Massachusetts
Team Expected Points: 32.25
Massachusetts is full of fantasy relevance this week against the sub-par Bowling Green offense in what we expect to be a shootout. Led by QB Blake Frohnapfel (7,500), Massachusetts runs a relatively high tempo pass-centric offense. While they average only 22 points per game, the Minutemen are poised for a big performance this week against Bowling Green’s 118th ranked pass defense. Frohnapfel’s had his best game of the season last week against Florida International as he completed 76% of his passes for 363 yards, 3 touchdowns, and a season-first 0 interceptions.
Frohnapfel’s favorite target, by far, has been WR Tajae Sharpe (7,200). Sharpe has over twice as many receptions (45) as the next receiver on the team, and he is on pace for over 1000 yards this season. The one downside to Sharpe is his lack of touchdowns as he only made it in for the first time last week, but he has exceeded 10 receptions in 3 of 4 games this year, so that easily can make up for an end zone miss. WR2 Marken Michel (4,200) is also in play here due to the matchup. Michel has increased his receptions by 1 each week as he has his best game of the season with a 7 / 113 / 2 stat line last week.
Recommendation: Some of our best values of the week come out of this game, including quarterback Blake Frohnapfel along with both of his receivers Sharpe and Michel. All 3 are in play for all formats, with Michel giving you the most bang for your buck.
Bowling Green
Team Expected Points: 45.25
Bowling Green is another potent offense that we always must consider on a weekly basis. QB Matt Johnson (9,400) has thrown the ball more than any other quarterback in the league as he leads the FBS with 236 attempts for 2084 yards. Johnson has exceeded 400 yards in all but 1 game this season and has multi-touchdown upside in each and every outing. In his last home game this year, Johnson put up 443 yards and 4 touchdowns—so seeing that UMass is allowing over 37 points per game this season, Johnson is certainly in play.
WR Roger Lewis (7,800) is the WR1 for the Falcons, and he also presents some extreme upside this week. Coming off a 200-yard 10-catch game against Buffalo, Lewis has great momentum to keep that going this week. We have him projected as the highest scoring receiver on the slate. WR Ronnie Moore (5,800) and WR Ryan Burbrink (4,600) are both also in play as salary relief options with plenty of upside.
Although the Falcons obviously love to pass the ball, they continue to involve RB Travis Greene (5,600) from week to week as he is averaging over 13 carries per game this season. Greene doesn’t have as much allure as other plays in this game, but he is in play as an option at that price tier.
Recommendation: Both Matt Johnson and Roger Lewis are top plays at their positions. You will be paying up for each, but they have extremely high ceilings with Lewis being our top play at the receiver position.
Georgia Tech at Clemson
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Clemson -7
O/U: 54.5
Georgia Tech
Team Expected Points: 23.75
Georgia Tech is in a tough spot this week as they visit Clemson. This is not a good matchup as Clemson’s defense has been very solid this season allowing just over 14 points per game. Most players on Georgia Tech’s offense will be touchdown-dependent due to the sheer volume of carries that are spread around. RB Patrick Skov (5,300) is a bruising between-the-tackles runner who’s style has not lend itself to big plays this year as he only has one run over 20 yards on the season. QB Justin Thomas (7,200) is the only player we could even think about considering here, but we just cannot safely predict a solid performance, relegating him to a GPP-only play if looking for diversification and low ownership.
Clemson
Team Expected Points: 30.75
RB – Wayne Gallman – 5,800
Analysis: Wayne Gallman is the clear feature back in Clemson’s offense, rushing for 20+ carries in each of his last 2 games. Gallman failed to find the end zone in each, but he put up a combined 237 yards with a respectable 5.1 yards per carry. Georgia Tech will really slow the game down, but their mediocre rushing defense has shown its vulnerability as evident in the Notre Dame game CJ Prosise rushed for nearly 200 yards and 3 touchdowns.
Recommendation: Gallman should get his chances, but his upside may be slightly limited due to the slower tempo expected here. His price is relatively low, but not a safe enough play for cash games. Feel free to differentiate with him for a GPP lineup.
Iowa State at Texas Tech
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Texas Tech -12
O/U: 74
Iowa State
Team Expected Points: 31
RB –Mike Warren– 6,000
Analysis: Mike Warren finds himself in another favorable matchup this week. Warren put up a career performance last week against Kansas as he rushed 18 times for 175 yards and 2 touchdowns in addition to a season-high 3 receptions. Warren was the center of their offensive attack last week, and we expect nothing less against a similarly weak Texas Tech defense this time around.
Recommendation: Warren’s price was substantially adjusted up after last week’s performance. He is not nearly as great of a value this week for cash games, but can still be considered for tournaments due to his favorable matchup.
Texas Tech
Team Expected Points: 43
The Texas Tech offense continued to roll last week in their losing effort against Baylor as they put up over 600 total yards of offense. QB Patrick Mahomes (8,500) exceeded 400 yards with 4 touchdowns through the air and 1 touchdown on the ground. Mahomes always has a chance to put up big points, but we are expecting some regression this week as he is in a tougher matchup against Iowa State. The wide receiving core is all over the place, with multiple guys able to contribute each and every week. For that we are not recommending any Texas Tech receivers in cash formats, WR Zach Austin (3,800) burst onto the scene with a team-high 8 receptions for 110 yards and a touchdown last week—so he could be an intriguing punt in tournaments. The main play we see from this game is RB DeAndre Washington (5,200). While he had his worst rushing performance of the year last week, this was primarily due to the high tempo of that game as Texas Tech was playing catch-up the entire time. Washington should get more opportunities this week in addition to his normal looks in the passing game as the Red Raiders are double digit favorites with a high O/U.
Recommendation: We see DeAndre Washington as a solid value at running back this week. The receivers in this game could be considered in GPP’s, but we aren’t endorsing them for cash game plays. Mahomes has upside for tournaments as well, but the value is not there for cash games considering your options below his price point.
Minnesota at Purdue
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Minnesota -3
O/U: 45.5
Minnesota
Team Expected Points: 24.5
RB – Rodney Smith – 4,400
Analysis: This game has a low O/U, but Minnesota is in a decent spot here against struggling Purdue defense that is near the bottom of the league in rushing yards allowed per game. Enter Rodney Smith, Minnesota’s starting running back. Smith has had some decent games on the ground this season, including one game over 100 yards along with 3 games above 5 yards per carry. While Smith has only reached the end zone once this year and will be threatened for carries by freshman standout Shannon Brooks, Smith’s primary upside comes from what we have seen of his usage in the passing game with his couple of 4-catch games thus far this season. You can throw out last week against the elite Northwestern defense--we expect Smith to be involved and contribute enough to hit value this week against Purdue.
Recommendation: Smith is priced down at only 4,400 this week, so it only takes a few receptions and a decent rushing performance for him to hit value and provide great salary relief in your lineup. Smith is in play for all formats.
QB – Mitch Leidner – 5,000
Analysis: Mitch Leidner is certainly not a high upside play as he rarely exceeds 1 touchdown in a game and has failed to surpass 300 passing yards this season. However, Leidner’s price is way down after being stomped last week against Northwestern. Purdue’s defense is not very good and Leidner is very cheap, so he hits out radar as a pure punt play this week.
Recommendation: If looking for a punt at quarterback, Leidner is our pick as he is cheap and facing a bad Purdue defense. He will not need much to hit value here.
Purdue
Team Expected Points: 21.5
RB Markell Jones - 4,600, DJ Knox – 3,800
Analysis: Purdue is in a tough spot against Minnesota this week. Their running game carries the offense, and freshman Markell Jones had a ton of success against the elite Michigan State defense as he carried 22 times for 157 yards and 2 touchdowns. This was Jones’ first start, and he showed he can produce in a very tough matchup. DJ Knox figures to be more involved this week as he did suffer an injury last week that limited him to only 2 carries on the day. The coach has stated that Knox remains atop the depth chart, but you certainly have to consider that Jones will eat heavily into those carries.
Recommendation: Both of these backs are in in a tough spot, so we aren’t projecting a ton of points—however Jones has scored 5 touchdowns in 5 games this year along with a couple of 4-reception outings, while Knox is a sub-4k starting running back in the rush-heavy Purdue offense. Either of these could be worth a shot in GPP formats.
Navy at Notre Dame
Kickoff: 2:30 PM EST
Spread: Notre Dame -14.5
O/U: 55
Navy
Team Expected Points: 20.25
For fantasy purposes, only one player can be considered for Navy, and that is QB Keenan Reynolds (7,000). Reynolds is the definition of a rushing quarterback, as he has attempted nearly 3 times as many rushes as he has passes on the season with 488 yards on the ground to only 265 yards passing. Reynolds has been able to carry his team against inferior opponents this season, so this will be his first true test against the tough Notre Dame defense. Reynolds is a GPP QB2 play due to his rushing ability, but we cannot consider him in cash games as he could very easily be shut down due to his one-dimensional ability.
Notre Dame
Team Expected Points: 34.75
WR – Will Fuller – 6,500
Analysis: While Will Fuller’s production has really dropped off in the past 2 games (only 6 receptions for 94 yards and 1 touchdown), he still is considered one of the better receivers in the game. Notre Dame had a tough matchup against Clemson last week, but Fuller should be in for a bounce-back as they are 2-touchdown favorites over an unproven Navy team. While we aren’t projecting a huge game since Notre Dame will not need to pass often, we still think Fuller has touchdown upside for consideration this week.
Recommendation: This may be the lowest price you find Fuller at all season. He is not a safe bet for big numbers, be he certainly has the upside to make him in play for GPP’s.
RB – CJ Prosise – 7,600
Analysis: CJ Prosise has been dominant as of late, amassing at least 149 yards of total offense in each of his last 4 games. For a 3-week stretch in weeks 2-5, Prosise averaged at least 9 yards per carry on the ground. Last week, despite Prosise being limited to only 50 yards rushing, he showed us an entirely new dimension of his game as he proceeded to catch 4 passes for 100 yards and a touchdown. A running back with clear 100+ rushing yard upside who can also make big plays in the passing game will always be on our radar for fantasy consideration.
Recommendation: While we think CJ Prosise has a very solid day, his price was really bumped up due to his recent success. While we think Prosise is excellent in tournament formats, we would not endorse paying up in cash games as this game should be slow tempo and may get out of hand by halftime.
Northwestern at Michigan
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Michigan -7.5
O/U: 35
This game has one of the lowest O/U’s we have seen all season. We want no part of these offenses from a fantasy perspective, as the upside is about as low as it can be here.
Georgia at Tennessee
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Georgia -3
O/U: 59.5
Georgia
Team Expected Points: 31.25
RB Nick Chubb - 8,600, Sony Michel - 4,500
Analysis: This Georgia team firmly led by their running game with Nick Chubb at the helm. As the Bulldogs enter Neyland stadium against a struggling Tennessee team, we fully expect them to lean heavily on this rushing game as their passing offense has been very suspect this season. Arkansas’s Alex Collins ran all over the Volunteers for 154 yards and 2 touchdowns last week, so Chubb certainly has top-level upside in this matchup.
Recommendation: Our barrier to playing Chubb this week is, as usual, his price. Granted, it is not as high as usual, but there are quite a few other running backs on the board at a much cheaper price point.
Tennessee
Team Expected Points: 28.25
QB - Joshua Dobbs - 7,400
Analysis: Joshua Dobbs continues to perplex us with his performances from week to week. He has obviously shown immense upside with his rushing ability (i.e. 18 for 136 yards against Florida), however he then turns around and rushes for only 7 yards against Arkansas last week. Dobbs has provided us with zero confidence in his passing ability thus far this season, so we have little confidence in his ability facing the talented Georgia secondary this week. Georgia has been shutting teams down outside of the Alabama game this year, so Dobbs is far from a safe play in this contest.
Recommendation: Dobbs is a GPP play only due to his rushing ability upside. It is hard to trust him at this price in cash games.
RB - Jalen Hurd - 6,600
Analysis: Jalen Hurd’s streak of a touchdown in every game this season was broken last week against the tough Arkansas defense. Even with the matchup however, Hurd still managed to average 4.7 yards per carry for 90 yards on the day. It was very encouraging to see Hurd’s season-high 3 receptions for 51 yards as well since we haven’t yet seen the reception upside he had last season.
Recommendation: Jalen Hurd is in play here due to the focus he gets in Tennessee’s offensive system, especially as Dobbs struggles to pass the ball. However given his matchup with the talented Georgia defense, we can’t trust that Hurd will safely pay off his salary in cash games.
Wisconsin at Nebraska
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Nebraska -1.5
O/U: 48.5
Wisconsin
Team Expected Points: 23.5
RB - Taiwan Deal - 5,100, Dare Ogunbowale - 4,400
Analysis: The Wisconsin offense did not look sharp last week against a solid Iowa defense as they failed to score a single touchdown in their first loss of the season. The passing game has been lackluster all year as they’ve barely exceeded 1000 yards through 5 games, While Taiwan Deal and Dare Ogunbowale will continue to compete for carries, Deal has seemingly been first in line for the majority share as he has received at least 14 carries in each of the last 4 games and shown the most explosiveness of the two. They will continue a rough split going forward, but even with Deal slated to get the majority, we have to give Dare the edge in this matchup due to his usage in the passing game. Nebraska is at the bottom of the FBS in pass defense, so anyone who could catch the ball multiple times has a chance to make a play here. Dare has 14 receptions to Deal’s 1 on the season, including 4 for 43 in their last game against Iowa.
Recommendation: Nebraska is immensely tough on the run, allowing a Power-5 best 2.2 yards per rush outside the tackles this season; however with Dare’s passing upside, he could be considered as a risky punt in GPP formats. We would not recommend Taiwan Deal in this spot.
WR – Alex Ericson – 4,400, Robert Wheelwright – 3,200
Analysis: Alex Ericson is the clear-cut WR1 in Wisconsin’s offense that we expect will need to pass as they face the lopsided Nebraska defense that is tough on the run but absolutely porous against the pass (ranked last in FBS). The Wisconsin passing game is not great, but anyone can look good through the air against the Cornhuskers. Be cautious however, as Ericson suffered a concussion and has not yet participated in team drills as of Thursday. If Ericson is out, Robert Wheelwright appears to be next in line for targets.
Recommendation: Confirm that Ericson is in, and if so, he makes for a salary-saving value receiver. If Ericson is out, Wheelwright becomes a very, very sneaky punt play particularly playable in GPP’s due to low ownership expected. Even if Ericson is in, we could see Wheelwright in a GPP due to the great matchup and his rock bottom price.
Nebraska
Team Expected Points: 25
QB – Tommy Armstrong Jr – 7,100
Analysis: Nebraska takes on an Illinois team ranked 24th overall in defense this week. However, we are not buying that defensive ranking on paper after seeing Illinois cough up 48 points in an embarrassing loss to North Carolina Week 3. A great comparison can be made between Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong and North Carolina’s Marquise Williams—both around 6’1, 220 lbs. representing the threat to throw the ball downfield or get it done with their legs. While Williams is a much more elusive runner, Armstrong is the better passer and can still make plays with his legs when needed. Armstrong has surpassed 300 yards in 3 of 4 games this season, throwing for multiple touchdowns in each and rushing for around 49 yards and 63 yards in his last 2 games.
Recommendation: We think 7,100 is undervaluing the consistency that Armstrong brings to the table. Feel free to roll him out in cash games as a relatively cheaper but safe option at the position.
WR – Jordan Westerkamp – 4,600, Brandon Reilly – 3,700
Analysis: Westerkamp was absolutely silenced last week against Illinois, catching only 1 of his 5 targets for a 1-yard loss on the day. WR2 Brandon Reilly was not able to manage much production either as he caught only 1 pass for16 yards. The entire receiving core was hurt as the horrible weather conditions led to a very sloppy quarterback play. Their defensive matchup doesn’t improve much here against a Wisconsin team that has allowed only 1 touchdown to the wide receiver position all season (Week 1 vs Alabama), however we have to consider that Wisconsin has not seen a team anywhere close to Nebraska’s caliber in passing ability thus far—and that is saying a lot, as Nebraska is not exactly top-tier…
Recommendation: Westerkamp is priced down this week while Reilly’s price held steady at 3,700. If you need a cheap punt in order to spend up on one of the top flight plays on the slate, feel free to roll out Westerkamp as he should get WR1 target volume with some slight upside here.
Oregon State at Arizona
Kickoff: 4:00 PM EST
Spread: Arizona -9.5
O/U: 61.5
Oregon State
Team Expected Points: 26
QB – Seth Collins – 7,100
Analysis: Freshman quarterback Seth Collins is continuing to develop as a passer this season as he has improved in every game thus far. Collins has a premium matchup this week against the 104th ranked Arizona passing defense, so he is on our radar as a sneaky play in a very good situation.
Recommendation: Collins actually grades out very high on our value scale this week as he is priced down in a great situation. If looking to save at QB2 in any format, Collins could be a great under-owned option, especially when stacked with one of his wide receivers.
WR – Jordan Villamin – 4,100, Victor Bolden – 3,800
Analysis: While Jordan Villamin had a break-out game in their last matchup with Stanford (7 / 138 / 1), Victor Bolden has continued to vastly underperform what we were expecting coming into the season. While Bolden has been getting some opportunities, he just has not been able to explode as he is only averaging 5.4 yards per catch compared to Villamin’s 16.4 YPC. We are seeing Seth Collins continue to develop as a passer as they really bumped up the pass attempts in the loss last week, so we see Villamin getting plenty of opportunities in this game that Oregon State is expected to trail in as well.
Recommendation: Villamin the play here as we are projecting him as a top value at the position due to his low price—he can be considered in all formats. While Bolden is priced down, we just can’t trust him with what has been shown thus far in the season.
Arizona
Team Expected Points: 35.5
RB - Nick Wilson - 6,400
Analysis: Nick Wilson had been on a monster run averaging nearly 140 yards per game in the 4 games leading up to last week. Then, Stanford rained on his parade as Wilson really struggled with 2.7 yards per carry for 46 yards and a touchdown. However we are not writing Wilson off because of one rough game against a historically top-5 run defense in Stanford. Wilson’s matchup this week is vastly improved, as Oregon State is allowing nearly 180 rushing yards per game. In their two competitive matchups this season, Oregon State allowed De’Veon Smith (Michigan) to run 23 times for 126 yards and 3 touchdowns. Then, in their last contest, Oregon State allowed Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) to run 30 times for a whopping 206 yards. Wilson should receive at least 20 carries in this game with a very solid chance at exceeding 100 yards with at least 1 touchdown.
Recommendation: At this price, Wilson is one of the best values on this slate. We will be using a lot of him in both cash games and GPP’s as he is in a great matchup and receives a solid workload with plenty of chances to score.
