Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 10-3-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 19 (38 teams)
Houston at Tulsa
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Houston -5.5
O/U: 81
Houston
Team Expected Points: 43.25
Analysis: We start this week’s preview off with a very juicy matchup between Houston and Tulsa—a contest with an 81 point O/U and with Houston as less than a touchdown favorite. Both of these teams can put up some points, with Houston averaging over 48 per game while Tulsa averages over 41 points per game. The Tulsa defense is atrocious, having allowed 39 points per game this season which included a near 500-yard passing game by Baker Mayfield in their last game. Needless to say, the Houston Cougars QB Greg Ward Jr (9,200) is in a great spot here. Ward has averaged around 250 passing yards and 100 rushing yards per game this season as he is flourishing under the Tom Herman system. He has consistently scored over 30 fantasy points in each of his last 5 games, and we believe Ward has the highest ceiling of any quarterback on the slate this week. Ward’s favorite target is WR Demarcus Ayers (6,700). Ayers has twice as many receptions as anyone else on the team with 26. He has put up consistent production with 8 or more receptions in each game this season with over 120 yards in 2 of those games. RB Kenneth Farrow (6,600) has had a much quieter season than we’d expect as he is only averaging 4.1 yards per carry with only 1 game above 100 yards and no touchdowns. If there were ever a spot for him to break out, this would be the game.
Recommendation: We would strongly recommend some exposure to this game, with QB Greg Ward Jr being a top option in all formats. WR Demarcus Ayers is our top value receiver on the board while RB Kenneth Farrow is near the top at his position as well. Try to fit at least one of these guys in somehow.
Tulsa
Team Expected Points: 37.75
Analysis: We expect Tulsa to keep pace relatively well with Houston in what should be an absolute shootout. Top WR Keevan Lucas (7,400) is certainly in play here, as he has the potential for double digit receptions with 100+ receiving yards any time he is on the field. Lucas has struggled for receptions in his last 2 outings, but he has a touchdown in every outing this year and will continue to be relied on in this pass-heavy offense. WR Keyarris Garret (6,600) also is on consideration, as he exploded with 14 receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown in his last game against Oklahoma. Garrett has showed some consistency with over 100 yards in all 3 games this season, but we still would categorize him as more of a boom or bust play reliant on some big catches to make his mark. QB Dane Evans (8,200) has put up solid scores as well this year as he is averaging around 26 fantasy points per game. Evans is in a good spot here, but we think his upside pales in comparison to Greg Ward Jr due to Evans’ lack of mobility.
Recommendation: Keevan Lucas grades out as our top value from the Tulsa offense on this slate, and he is a great plug and play for all formats in case you can’t afford Corey Coleman. Keyarris Garrett should be considered more so for tournaments, and we are not on board with Dane Evans at quarterback due to all of the other values on this slate.
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Virginia Tech -4.5
O/U: 51
Pittsburgh
Team Expected Points: 23.25
Pittsburgh is in a tough spot against a solid Virginia Tech defense. We don’t typically recommend many plays against Virginia Tech, and today is no exception. We are fading this offense.
Virginia Tech
Team Expected Points: 27.75
We are not expecting much from Virginia Tech either in this game, as Pittsburgh has shown significant improvement on the defensive side of the ball this year. The Pittsburgh run defense far outperforms their passing defense, so we could get behind a play of Virginia Tech’s WR1 Isaiah Ford (5,800) as he typically is good for a solid workload—however that is a reach considering what else you have to pick from on this slate. TE Bucky Hodges (3,500) should be considered a viable option at his position due to the slight price relief and touchdown upside.
South Carolina at Missouri
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Missouri -3.5
O/U: 42.5
South Carolina
Team Expected Points: 19.5
This South Carolina team finds itself in a rough spot against the 17th ranked Missouri defense, allowing just over 1000 yards through 4 games this season while allowing an average of 12.5 points per game. South Carolina has struggled on offense, and now their starting running back is doubtful to play. We do not like anyone on this offense.
Missouri
Team Expected Points: 23
Unlike their defense, the Missouri offense is not very good at all. They have looked very sloppy against Kentucky last week as Maty Mauk only managed 180 yards and a touchdown. Freshman QB Drew Lock (5,100) is expected to take over as starter this week, so he could be considered as a punt tournament play at only 5,100. Outside of that, avoid this offense.
Purdue at Michigan State
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Michigan State -21.5
O/U: 56.5
Purdue
Team Expected Points: 17.5
Purdue faces the tough Spartan defense in a matchup that we would rather avoid.
Michigan State
Team Expected Points: 39
WR – Aaron Burbridge – 6,400, RJ Shelton – 3,300, DeAnthony Arnett – 3,000
Analysis: Aaron Burbridge took a step back last week as this was his first game below 100 yards on the season. The Spartans didn’t really have to throw the ball much as their run game was very effective, so none of the receivers were given much attention as Connor Cook only completed 11 passes. The Purdue passing defense is a big downgrade from Central Michigan however, as they are allowing 265 yards per game this season. We expect the Spartan receivers to get more opportunities in what should be a big victory.
Recommendation: Burbridge is a decent play based on our projections, as he does have a very high ceiling—I would use him more so in tournaments rather than cash games after what we saw last week however. Both RJ Shelton and DeAnthony Arnett can be considered as decent punt plays at the position.
Minnesota at Northwestern
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Northwestern -4
O/U: 40
Minnesota
Team Expected Points: 17.5
Northwestern has an elite defense allowing barely over a touchdown per game, while Minnesota is struggling to exceed 20 points on offense per game. This is a mismatch that we want no part in, especially with the measly 40 point O/U.
Northwestern
Team Expected Points: 22.5
While Northwestern has an elite defense, Minnesota’s defense is no pushover either as they barely allow over 300 yards per game. Vegas doesn’t expect much from this game, and neither do we. RB Justin Jackson (6,500) is always in consideration, but his price this week makes him a tough play outside of tournaments given the difficult matchup.
Iowa at Wisconsin
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Wisconsin -7
O/U: 47
Iowa
Team Expected Points: 20
Nobody from this game graded out well in our projections this week, as the defenses on both sides are very formidable. Pricing is not quite low enough on these players to warrant any viable plays.
Wisconsin
Team Expected Points: 27
Nobody from this game graded out well in our projections this week, as the defenses on both sides are very formidable. Pricing is not quite low enough on these players to warrant any viable plays.
West Virginia at Oklahoma
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma -7
O/U: 59.5
West Virginia
Team Expected Points: 25.75
QB – Skyler Howard – 7,700
Analysis: Skyler Howard has been a very consistent option at quarterback all season, scoring between 26 and 30 points in all 3 of his games this year. Howard’s touchdown count has increased each week as he threw for 4 against Maryland last week. We expect Howard to be throwing often as West Virginia is the underdog going into Norman this week. The Oklahoma defense can’t be taken lightly, but they certainly are not invincible as we saw Dane Evans pass for 427 yards and 4 touchdowns against them in Week 3.
Recommendation: While we don’t expect Howard to throw for 4 touchdowns again, he still represents a solid value play in a game where we expect him to be forced to pass often.
Shelton Gibson – 6,000, Daikiel Shorts – 5,900, Jovon Durante – 5,300
Analysis: Shelton Gibson exploded last week for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns. Gibson has now scored a touchdown in each game this season, with at least one 40+ yard play in each game. Daikel Shorts reached the end zone last week as well as he has put up consistent numbers this season. Freshman Jovon Durante disappointed us last week against Maryland as he only came up with 2 catches for 18 yards and failed to find the end zone in a game where his team scored 6 times. Last week was definitely discouraging, but Durante is a very talented freshman and still has some upside to get into the end zone this week.
Recommendation: Durante looked really good in the first 2 weeks of the season, so for this price we could certainly endorse a tournament play allowing some nice salary relief. Shelton Gibson has been very consistent this year and comes in at a manageable price in this game, but we think he does lose some production to both Durante and Shorts this week. We would consider these receivers primarily for tournaments only due to the uncertainty of who could break out this week.
Oklahoma
Team Expected Points: 32.75
The Oklahoma offense is priced up this week as they face what has looked to be a solid West Virginia defense. The Sooners will pose a big test to this West Virginia defense, as the Mountaineers really have not played any quality competition as of yet. QB Baker Mayfield (8,900) always has the potential for a big game as he has shown a very high ceiling thus far this year. However this week, based on the pricing and matchup we would tend to look elsewhere for our fantasy production. The same can be said for the rest of Oklahoma’s offense, as prices are up across the board.
Texas at TCU
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: TCU -15
O/U: 71.5
Texas
Team Expected Points: 28.25
QB - Jerrod Heard- 8,000
Analysis: The Longhorns fought hard last week in a game that really disappointed us from a fantasy perspective. Jerrod Heard followed up a magical week 3 performance by passing for only 119 yards with no touchdowns and rushing 19 times for only 48 yards. Oklahoma State was a very tough matchup, so Heard gets some slight relieve this week as he will be doing all he can to keep up with TCU. The Horned Frogs have been really troubled by the injury bug this season, showing last week as they allowed over 600 yards of total offense to Texas Tech. While Texas is nowhere near Texas Tech in terms of offensive explosiveness, we think the upside is still there to put up points on a beat up TCU defense in this game with a favorable 71.5 O/U.
Recommendation: Jerrod Heard took a slight dip in price after last week’s stinker. We think he is a fringe value quarterback on the slate, more suited for tournaments due to lower ownership and upside in what could potentially be a shootout.
RB - Johnathan Gray- 6,300
Analysis: TCU has allowed an average of 170 rushing yards per game, giving up almost 200 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground to DeAndre Washington last week. While Jonathan Gray will lose some carries to Jonathan Heard, we still expect Gray to get his work in with a chance to score at the goal line and be involved in the passing game.
Recommendation: Gray would really be a tournament only play for us this week, as the upside against a weak TCU defense is there, but Heard could all but cannibalize his opportunities as Texas tries to stay close in this game.
TCU
Team Expected Points: 43.25
TCU is, as usual, full of fantasy goodness this week. Trevone Boykin (10,000) is the second highest priced quarterback on the slate facing a Texas defense ranked 114th in the nation giving up nearly 500 yards per game. We expect TCU to easily cross that threshold, with Boykin at the center of it as usual. All TCU wide receivers are in play this week, with Josh Doctson (8,700) leading the charge after his insane 18-catches for 267 yards and 3 touchdowns last week. With Kolby Listenbee (5,800) likely to return this week, Doctson’s upside may be somewhat limited—but you can only limit a guy with his talent by so much. If Listenbee does play, his price of only 5,800 would make him an extremely attractive option as he has some immense big-play upside. RB Aaron Green (8,000) was given a huge workload last week against Texas Tech as he carried 28 times for 162 yards and a couple of touchdowns. Green has over 160 yards in each of his last 2 games, with 2 touchdowns in each of his last 3 games. While Boykin does cut into his workload, there is no reason not to expect him to be fed again this week against the very weak Texas run defense allowing over 200 rushing yards per game.
Recommendation: Everyone on TCU is in play in this game, but we really favor Aaron Green as we think TCU will be running early and often here which may limit the upside of other offensive options. Trevone Boykin is a solid play as usual, but we would lean towards Seth Russell if paying up at that level. Josh Doctson also an elite play that we can’t argue with, we just would lean towards Corey Coleman based on our projections. If Listenbee is playing, we will definitely be working him into quite a few lineups due to his advantageous salary.
Louisville at NC State
Kickoff: 12:30 PM EST
Spread: NC State -4
O/U: 50.5
Louisville
Team Expected Points: 23.25
QB - Lamar Jackson – 6,700
Analysis: Lamar Jackson looks to have solidified his starting spot after putting up gaudy numbers in the Cardinals’ first victory last week. NC State has a very solid defense on paper, allowing only 50 rushing yards and 156 passing yards per game—however, they have played very low quality opponents all season up until now. Lamar Jackson’s run-first playstyle could lead to trouble for Louisville as a team, but also a big day in terms of fantasy production.
Recommendation: Jackson is a risky play in this tough matchup on paper, but he can put up points in a variety of ways and is priced at a very low 6,700, making him a viable salary cap saving play in tournaments.
NC State
Team Expected Points: 27.25
RB- Matt Dayes – 5,100
Analysis: Matt Dayes has been extremely impressive this season, averaging 6 yards per carry for 454 yards and 9 touchdowns. With Shadrach Thornton’s recent dismissal from the team due to legal troubles, Dayes will be the go-to guy in this run-first Wolfpack offense. In his 2 games earlier this season without Thornton on the field, Dayes carried the ball 48 times for 242 yards and 5 touchdowns. Louisville has actually allowed over 170 rushing yards per game this season, showing that their defense is susceptible to a beating on the ground.
Recommendation: Watch for Dayes to get 20+ carries and exceed 100 yards with a shot at multiple touchdowns. The matchup is not ideal, but he is still a solid option at running back due to his upside from workload with Thornton gone for good. He is criminally underpriced this week as our top value running back on the slate.
Florida State at Wake Forest
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Florida State -19
O/U: 45.5
Florida State
Team Expected Points: 32.25
QB – Everett Golson – 7,400
Analysis: Everett Golson has been very efficient thru his 3 games starting for the Seminoles this season, sporting a 64% completion rate with nearly 600 passing yards and 6 touchdowns. Golson however sees a tough matchup this week against an above average Wake Forest defense which has only allowed an average of 145 passing yards and 150 rushing yards per game.
Recommendation: Golson is priced too high for us this week with such a low O/U—there are better options to target out there.
RB – Dalvin Cook – 7,700
Analysis: Dalvin Cook was dominant in his first 2 games this year as he rushed for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns. Cook ran into a bit of a buzz saw in their last contest against the elite rushing defense of Boston College, as he was held to only 54 yards on 15 carries with no touchdowns. Cook is a very talented back, and although the Wake Forest defense is strong, they are not on the level of Boston College when it comes to defending the run.
Recommendation: The only thing stopping us from rolling out Cook this week is his price. There are a number of other options in much better spots this week, so due to the matchup and very low O/U, we have to fade Cook.
Wake Forest
Team Expected Points: 13.25
Wake Forest faces up against one of the best defenses in the league this week. TE Cam Serigne (2,800) is salary-saving tight end play we could get behind due to his consistency, but we will not be able to promote either Wake Forest quarterback this week.
Nebraska at Illinois
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Nebraska -7
O/U: 57
Nebraska
Team Expected Points: 32
QB – Tommy Armstrong Jr – 7,800
Analysis: Nebraska takes on an Illinois team ranked 24th overall in defense this week. However, we are not buying that defensive ranking on paper after seeing Illinois cough up 48 points in an embarrassing loss to North Carolina Week 3. A great comparison can be made between Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong and North Carolina’s Marquise Williams—both around 6’1, 220 lbs. representing the threat to throw the ball downfield or get it done with their legs. While Williams is a much more elusive runner, Armstrong is the better passer and can still make plays with his legs when needed. Armstrong has surpassed 300 yards in 3 of 4 games this season, throwing for multiple touchdowns in each and rushing for around 49 yards and 63 yards in his last 2 games.
Recommendation: We think 7,800 is undervaluing the consistency that Armstrong brings to the table. Feel free to roll him out in cash games as a relatively cheaper but safe option at the position.
WR – Brandon Reilly – 5,500
Analysis: Brandon Reilly is the WR2 for Nebraska and represents what we see as a solid value this week. Jordan Westerkamp is the clear go-to option in this offense, but Reilly has put up very consistent numbers this season in his secondary role. Reilly has consistently caught 3-5 balls per game while never dipping below 70 receiving yards. While he may not be targeted much in the red zone, Reilly has the chance to catch a long ball here and there as he showed last week with a 49-yard long reception on his way to a season-high 112 yards.
Recommendation: Reilly provides some decent value at only 5,500 this week. We think he may be much overlooked this week, making him a great flyer in tournaments.
Illinois
Team Expected Points: 25
QB – Wes Lunt – 6,900
Analysis: Wes Lunt is in a good spot against Nebraska this week. The Cornhuskers defense is allowing over 36 points per game this season, ranked dead last in passing yards allowed per game at 379.5. Last week, Nebraska allowed Southern Mississippi to absolutely bludgeon them through the air with 447 total passing yards, so a much more talented Illinois team certainly has some upside this week. Wes Lunt will not get you any points with his legs, but he certainly has 300+ yard upside in a game where we expect Illinois to target Nebraska’s secondary since the Cornhuskers actually have an effective run defense.
Recommendation: Lunt is cheap and has a nice ceiling given his matchup and is a solid play if you want to diversify any of your lineups at quarterback while paying up for those top wide receivers on this slate.
WR – Geronimo Allison – 6,200
Analysis: Geronimo Allison is the WR1 for the Illinois offense. This senior wide receiver has a big frame at 6’4 200 lbs, and he has only been improving this year with his last game being the biggest as he caught 10 balls for 128 yards. Illinois will be throwing the ball around as they try to keep up with Nebraska, so Allison could get plenty of work and has a good shot at the end zone.
Recommendation: Allison is priced around the middle of the pack at 6,200 and could make for a great under-owned stack with Lunt in tournaments as he has 100+ yard upside.
Alabama at Georgia
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Georgia -2
O/U: 53.5
Alabama
Team Expected Points: 25.75
The Alabama offense has not been too impressive this season as they have struggled to find consistency at quarterback. RB Derrick Henry (7,900) has reached the end zone at least once in each game this season, but we can’t recommend him for 7,900 facing Georgia’s defense allowing just over 100 rushing yards per game.
Georgia
Team Expected Points: 27.75
Georgia is also in a tough spot this week against the 12th ranked Alabama defense. With the Crimson Tide allowing only 57 rushing yards per game, RB Nick Chubb (8,500) may not find much room to run in this matchup. While we can never count out an elite talent like Chubb, we can’t justify paying elite pricing for him this week in one of the toughest matchups on the board.
Boston College at Duke
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Duke -7
O/U: 39.5
Boston College
Team Expected Points: 16.25
Vegas agrees that it’s tough to score touchdowns while playing through a hurricane. Regardless of weather concerns, we would still be fading this game completely in what looks to be a defensive standoff.
Duke
Team Expected Points: 23.25
Vegas agrees that it’s tough to score touchdowns while playing through a hurricane. Regardless of weather concerns, we would still be fading this game completely in what looks to be a defensive standoff.
Texas Tech at Baylor
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Baylor -15
O/U: 90
Texas Tech
Team Expected Points: 36.5
With this O/U looking more like an NCAA basketball game, we can expect plenty of fantasy relevance out of pretty much everyone on these teams. Texas Tech is the underdog in this contest, meaning QB Patrick Mahomes (8,600) should have his hands full if he is healthy enough to play. Mahomes has been dealing with a knee injury that has him questionable to play on Saturday. If Mahomes is ruled out, backup QB Davis Webb (8,200) is certainly in play. WR Jakeem Grant (6,900) had a great showing last week against TCU with over 20 fantasy points, but he has been inconsistent all year with only 2 touchdowns on the season. WR Devin Lauderdale (5,700) is another option, also inconsistent but a big-play candidate each and every game. RB DeAndre Washington (7,400) is in another good spot this week after putting up 188 yards on the ground against TCU last week. Washington had typically only been involved in the passing game before last week, and now he proved his danger on the ground as well.
Recommendation: Any player from this game could legitimately be justified, however if the quarterback position is still uncertain or Mahomes is a shaky start at game time, we will be fading both Mahomes / Webb. If Webb is named the clear starter, he instantly becomes a great play. We do think Washington is priced up on FanDuel this week as well.
Baylor
Team Expected Points: 51.5
Baylor players will be very popular this week, as usual. QB Seth Russell (10,100) is the highest priced and safest quarterback option on the slate as his floor is extremely high. His top 3 receivers WR Corey Coleman (8,600), WR KD Cannon (6,600), and WR Jay Lee (6,200) are all solid plays. Coleman is one of the best wide receivers in football, but he is priced near the top of the list this slate—so it will be tough to fit him in. Cannon has not looked great in his last 2 games only receiving 3 receptions for 43 yards, but he had a great week 1 and plenty of success in his freshman campaign last season. Senior Jay Lee has shown he can be a red zone target with his 4 touchdowns this season. The 1 game Lee did not score in, he caught 9 balls for 111 yards. RB Shock Linwood (8,100) has been splitting carries with Terence Williams, so at his price, we can’t justify the play outside of tournaments.
Recommendation: Everyone on Baylor is in play here, with Seth Russell being the safest quarterback on the slate and Corey Coleman projected as our highest-scoring wide receiver on the slate. If we had to avoid someone, it would be Shock Linwood due to his salary. However we have identified some values for you in this slate, so try to pay up for some exposure to this team.
Western Kentucky at Rice
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Western Kentucky -7.5
O/U: 72
Western Kentucky
Team Expected Points: 39.75
This game has the potential for some serious fireworks on offense as both defenses leave much to be desired. We saw Rice get absolutely torched by Baylor last weekend, allowing over 400 yards on the ground alone. Western Kentucky QB Brandon Doughty (9,400) has passed for 1382 yards and 10 touchdowns in his last 3 games, with 6 of those touchdowns coming last week against Miami Ohio. Needless to say, Doughty has both a high floor and ceiling, but comes at a premium price this week as well. His primary weapons in the pass game include WR Jared Dangerfield (6,800), WR Taywan Taylor (6,800), and TE Tyler Higbee (4,100). Jared Dangerfield has historically been go-to wide receiver for Doughty; however Taywan Taylor has shown his playmaking ability in the downfield passing game with some huge plays this season as he leads the Hilltoppers in both receptions and yards. Tyler Higbee is an absolute monster at the tight end position this year. Higbee is tied with Taylor on the season with 26 receptions and 4 touchdowns. He has proven to be a focal point of this offense and should continue to dominate this position going forward as no other tight end comes close to him in fantasy production this season. RB D’Andre Ferby (6,700) has been getting 20+ carries in each of his last 2 games, but his upside is somewhat limited based on the passing focus of this offense.
Recommendation: Brandon Doughty is in play primarily in tournament formats for us, as he has huge upside but not a ton of value at his steep price. Tyler Higbee is our primary play in the passing game, definitely worth paying up for at the tight end position in cash games. He will be the highest owned tight end on the day, so you might consider looking elsewhere in tournaments.
Rice
Team Expected Points: 32.25
The Rice Owls have been putting up respectable numbers on offense this season as they have averaged over 450 yards per game, almost evenly split between the run and the pass. QB Driphus Jackson (7,700) is in a really good spot here against the weak Hilltopper defense. Jackson is a mediocre passer, but has upside with his legs since he typically carries the ball 10-15 times per game. We would recommend him in tournament formats only due to his matchup upside.
Recommendation: Patrick Skov should be used in tournament formats as he has some huge upside this week in a dream matchup against North Carolina. However as with any back in the Yellow Jackets system, even with Skov leading the pack in carries he is never a sure thing for production as anyone could step up.
Ohio State at Indiana
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Ohio State -21
O/U: 64
Ohio State
Team Expected Points: 42.5
The Ohio State passing game is in a really good spot this week squaring off against an Indiana defense allowing over 360 passing yards per game, good for 126th in the FBS. QB Cardale Jones (7,900) played for the vast majority of snaps last season, solidifying his role as quarterback and alleviating our doubts regarding a potential 2-QB system. Cardale had his best passing day of the year as he threw for 288 yards and 2 touchdowns, great momentum going into the solid matchup this week. We expect to see more production this week out of WR Michael Thomas (6,300) at wide receiver after he posted a season-high 6 receptions for 80 yards last week, showing a solid connection with Cardale Jones. WR Jalin Marshall (5,600) is an elite playmaker when given the opportunity, giving you the added upside of a potential touchdown from his punt and kick returns duty. And finally, RB Ezekiel Elliott (9,100) is the workhorse of this offense, averaging nearly 20 carries per game with over 100 yards in every contest. Elliott may not have the gaudy numbers of other elite running backs, but he has just as much talent and potential to break out at any point.
Recommendation: Cardale Jones is a very solid play at quarterback this week, offering plenty of upside with some slight salary relief over other top options. Both Michael Thomas and (especially) Jalin Marshall offer great value, but we’d rather have them for tournaments than cash games. Ezekiel Elliott is the highest priced running back on the slate, but he has the best matchup out of all the top-tier backs this weekend, making him a running back worth paying up here if you can afford it.
Indiana
Team Expected Points: 21.5
Indiana will try to remain undefeated as they face a very tough Ohio State defense this week. The Buckeyes are only allowing just over 250 total yards and 12.3 points per game this season. While Indiana has some playmakers in RB Jordan Howard (6,600) and WR Ricky Jones (5,700), we would have to recommend fading them outside of tournaments against Ohio State.
North Carolina at Georgia Tech
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Georgia Tech -7.5
O/U: 61.5
North Carolina
Team Expected Points: 27
The North Carolina offense does not grade out well this week as they are up against what should be a much slower-paced game than what they are accustomed to. QB Marquise Williams (8,000) was benched after injury last week, and even though he has been announced as the starter for this week, we can never count Larry Fedora out for the chance to surprise us given the success backup Mitch Trubisky had in the second half last weekend. With the doubts and slower tempo expected in this contest, we will be fading the Tar Heels offense.
Georgia Tech
Team Expected Points: 34.5
RB – Patrick Skov – 5,700
Analysis: Patrick Skov continues to lead the Yellow Jackets running backs in carries each week as he rushed 19 times for 75 yards against Duke last week. Skov is a power runner averaging 4.4 yards per carry with 5 touchdowns on the year. Georgia Tech is in a really good spot this week facing North Carolina after the Tar Heels gave up 279 rushing yards to an inferior Delaware team last week. North Carolina is allowing an average of 228 rushing yards per game this season, a number that could not look much better to this Georgia Tech team that could run all over them.
Recommendation: Patrick Skov should be used in tournament formats as he has some huge upside this week in a dream matchup against North Carolina. However as with any back in the Yellow Jackets system, even with Skov leading the pack in carries he is never a sure thing for production as anyone could step up.
Kansas State at Oklahoma State
Kickoff: 4:00 PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma State -8
O/U: 50
Kansas State
Team Expected Points: 20.75
There just are not many fantasy-relevant players on the Kansas State offense this season, as they play in a run-heavy scheme that spreads the ball out to multiple mediocre backs while splitting the receptions evenly between their 3 top receivers. We can’t pick out any players safe enough to target this week, especially against a decent Oklahoma State defense.
Oklahoma State
Team Expected Points: 29.25
QB – Mason Rudolph – 7,900
Analysis: While Kansas State is only allowing 12 points per game this season on paper, we have to point out that they gave up 33 in the near-loss to Louisiana Tech while allowing only 3 points to UTSA and 0 to SDAK. This defense is nothing to write home about, so we think Mason Rudolph should have room to throw in this matchup. While the O/U is not too awfully high, Rudolph has shown that he can perform consistently and put up solid yardage game after game. Oklahoma State is trying to prove they can contend in the Big 12 this week by moving to 5-0, so we look for a big game out of Mason Rudolph.
Recommendation: While we do think Rudolph has a solid game, his price of 7,900 is just too high considering his potential upside along with the other premium plays at this position near his salary range.
WR – David Glidden – 5,900
Analysis: David Glidden has been consistently performing all year for the Cowboys as he’s averaged 4 receptions and 81 yards per game with 3 touchdowns. Glidden had a big game against Central Arkansas in week and has since tapered off with only 6 receptions for 108 yards and a touchdown in his last 2 games. Despite his recent slight slide in production, Glidden remains the top option for Mason Rudolph to throw to and could be set up for a nice day against an overrated Kansas State defense.
Recommendation: Glidden is priced attractively at 5,900 with some decent upside in this situation. Look for Glidden for price relief in cash games and a great stack if you play Mason Rudolph at quarterback.
Washington State at California
Kickoff: 4:00 PM EST
Spread: Cal -19
O/U: 70.5
Washington State
Team Expected Points: 25
With Washington State expected to struggle against Cal, most of their offense is relatively overpriced based on our projections. QB Luke Falk (8,800) has struggled to put up his usual numbers this season to pay off his huge salaries. WR River Cracraft (6,300) is our favorite receiver of the bunch here as he has the best shot at a huge game due to his consistent receptions. We also remember that Cracraft enjoyed his last outing against Cal as he finished that game with 11 receptions for 172 yards and 3 touchdowns. WR Gabe Marks (6,600) is definitely overpriced for our taste here as he has been rather inconsistent this year, while WR Dom Williams does not provide much relief either even though he did make it into the end zone twice last week.
Recommendation: We are fading Falk on this slate due to his price. While any of these wide receivers are justifiable in tournaments due to their upside, we would prefer River Cracraft above them all as he is priced slightly lower and had a huge game against Cal last season.
California
Team Expected Points: 44.5
This Cal team is in a good spot here as they are expected to put up plenty of points in what should be a cruise to victory. RB Daniel Lasco (7,000) is in a very good spot as Washington State is allowing over 180 rushing yards per game this season. In Lasco’s 1 healthy start this season, he averaged 6.5 yards per carry for 123 yards and a touchdown—so if he is 100% this week, we expect him to be a big part of Cal’s offense, especially as they are expected to be leading most of this game. QB Jared Goff (9,400) has put up very consistent numbers this year, but we think Cal relies more heavily on the run game in this contest which should make it tough for him to pay off his steep salary. TE Stephen Anderson (3,600) has not been used like we would have initially expected this season outside of his 6-reception performance against Texas in Week 3. Anderson has yet to find the end zone, but we actually think he has a chance to bounce back this week as Goff looks for some easy first down throws to keep the clock moving in this game. Washington State actually allowed 7 receptions and a touchdown to the Rutgers tight ends a few weeks ago, so the position certainly can have success against this defense.
Recommendation: Daniel Lasco is a top play at running back in all formats. We are fading Jared Goff due to his price, and Stephen Anderson provides some salary relief at the tight end position if you cannot afford Tyler Higbee.
