Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 10-3-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 19 (38 teams)
Houston at Tulsa
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Houston -5.5
O/U: 81
Houston
Team Expected Points: 43.25
Analysis: We start this week’s preview off with a very juicy matchup between Houston and Tulsa—a contest with an 81 point O/U and with Houston as less than a touchdown favorite. Both of these teams can put up some points, with Houston averaging over 48 per game while Tulsa averages over 41 points per game. The Tulsa defense is atrocious, having allowed 39 points per game this season which included a near 500-yard passing game by Baker Mayfield in their last game. Needless to say, the Houston Cougars QB Greg Ward Jr (8,900) is in a great spot here. Ward has averaged around 250 passing yards and 100 rushing yards per game this season as he is flourishing under the Tom Herman system. He has the highest ceiling of any quarterback on the slate, with a great chance to exceed both 300+ passing and 100+ rushing yards to achieve legendary “double-bonus” status on DraftKings. Ward’s favorite target is WR Demarcus Ayers (6,200). Ayers has twice as many receptions as anyone else on the team with 26. He has put up consistent production with 8 or more receptions in each game this season with over 120 yards in 2 of those games. RB Kenneth Farrow (5,100) has had a much quieter season than we’d expect as he is only averaging 4.1 yards per carry with only 1 game above 100 yards and no touchdowns. If there were ever a spot for him to break out, this would be the game.
Recommendation: We would strongly recommend some exposure to this game, with QB Greg Ward Jr being a top option in all formats. WR Demarcus Ayers and RB Kenneth Farrow represent solid options in all formats as well, with Farrow priced fairly low at only 5,100 considering the matchup.
Tulsa
Team Expected Points: 37.75
Analysis: We expect Tulsa to keep pace relatively well with Houston in what should be an absolute shootout. Top WR Keevan Lucas (6,900) is certainly in play here, as he has the potential for double digit receptions with 100+ receiving yards any time he is on the field. Lucas has struggled for receptions in his last 2 outings, but he has a touchdown in every game so far this year and will continue to be relied in this pass-heavy offense. WR Keyarris Garret (6,500) also is on consideration, as he exploded with 14 receptions for 189 yards and a touchdown in his last game against Oklahoma. Garrett has showed some consistency with over 100 yards in all 3 games this season, but we still would categorize him as more of a boom or bust play reliant on some big catches to make his mark. QB Dane Evans (7,900) has put up solid scores as well this year as he is averaging around 30 fantasy points per game. Evans is in a good spot here, but we think his upside pales in comparison to Greg Ward Jr due to Evans’ lack of mobility.
Recommendation: Keevan Lucas grades out as our top value from the Tulsa offense on this slate. We do have some other cheaper wide receivers for you to consider with similar upside, but if you have the salary cap open, Lucas is a great plug and play for all formats. Keyarris Garrett should be considered more so for tournaments, and we are not on board with Dane Evans at quarterback due to all of the other values on this slate.
Kansas at Iowa State
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Iowa State -16
O/U: 57.5
Kansas
Team Expected Points: 20.75
RB – Ke’aun Kinner – 4,900
Analysis: Kansas is not in the best of overall matchups in this game, but Ke’aun Kinner represents an intriguing value play. Even though Kansas has lost all of their games, it is encouraging to see that they have not abandoned the run game. This week should be no different, as they face an Iowa State run defense allowing 185 yards per game this season. Kinner has shown flashes of productivity in the lead back role this year, rushing for over 100 yards in each of his first 2 games before being shut down against Rutgers for only 1.6 yards per carry last week. However Kinner is good for consistent carries and has scored multiple touchdowns in 2 of his 3 games this year.
Recommendation: Kinner really the best player Kansas has on offense, therefore he represents a solid value play that should get plenty of usage against a below average Iowa State run defense.
Iowa State
Team Expected Points: 36.75
QB – Sam B Richardson – 6,900
Analysis: Iowa State is in an excellent matchup here facing a Kansas defense ranked 120th in the nation allowing nearly 550 yards and 41 points per game. Sam B Richardson will not light fire to the stat sheet with his passing numbers, but he has been a consistent option this season with a much higher ceiling than usual in this game given his very favorable matchup. His pass attempts have increased each week, so if he throws 40+ times in this game, he may have a great chance at exceeding 300 yards through the air.
Recommendation: Richardson is a solid cheaper play at quarterback today as he is in a very good spot.
RB –Mike Warren– 4,400
Analysis: The Kansas rushing defense is even worse than their pass defense, allowing an average of over 250 yards on the ground this season. Freshman Mike Warren was flying under the radar earlier this season in secondary role, but he exploded in their last game against Toledo with 21 carries for 126 yards. Warren was the clear go-to option as he received the start, so we expect the same if not better in this game against Kansas.
Recommendation: Warren is the starter and should expect a solid workload as Iowa State is expected to be leading most of this game. Warren is one of our top values at running back today at only 4,400—playable in all formats.
WR –Allen Lazard– 4,100
Analysis: Allen Lazard is the go-to wide receiver for the Iowa State offense. The sophomore may not have as huge of a ceiling as other WR1’s on this slate, but we expect him to have plenty of productivity against the very weak Kansas secondary.
Recommendation: Lazard is priced down at 4,100, so he doesn’t need much to hit value here. He would be a great tournament stack with Sam Richardson in what could be a highly under owned combination.
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Virginia Tech -4.5
O/U: 51
Pittsburgh
Team Expected Points: 23.25
Pittsburgh is in a tough spot against a solid Virginia Tech defense. We don’t typically recommend many plays against Virginia Tech, and today is no exception. We are fading this offense.
Virginia Tech
Team Expected Points: 27.75
We are not expecting much from Virginia Tech either in this game, as Pittsburgh has shown significant improvement on the defensive side of the ball this year. The Pittsburgh run defense far outperforms their passing defense, so we could get behind a play of Virginia Tech’s WR1 Isaiah Ford (4,500) as he typically is good for a solid workload—however that is a reach considering what else you have to pick from on this slate.
South Carolina at Missouri
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Missouri -3.5
O/U: 42.5
South Carolina
Team Expected Points: 19.5
This South Carolina team finds itself in a rough spot against the 17th ranked Missouri defense, allowing just over 1000 yards through 4 games this season while allowing an average of 12.5 points per game. South Carolina has struggled on offense, and now their starting running back is doubtful to play. We do not like anyone on this offense.
Missouri
Team Expected Points: 23
Unlike their defense, the Missouri offense is not very good at all. They have looked very sloppy against Kentucky last week as Maty Mauk only managed 180 yards and a touchdown. Freshman QB Drew Lock (4,300) is expected to take over as starter this week, so he could be considered as a punt tournament play at only 4,300. Outside of that, avoid this offense.
Purdue at Michigan State
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Michigan State -21.5
O/U: 56.5
Purdue
Team Expected Points: 17.5
Purdue faces the tough Spartan defense in a matchup that we would rather avoid.
Michigan State
Team Expected Points: 39
WR – Aaron Burbridge – 6,400, RJ Shelton – 3,300, DeAnthony Arnett – 3,000
Analysis: Aaron Burbridge took a step back last week as this was his first game below 100 yards on the season. The Spartans didn’t really have to throw the ball much as their run game was very effective, so none of the receivers were given much attention as Connor Cook only completed 11 passes. The Purdue passing defense is a big downgrade from Central Michigan however, as they are allowing 265 yards per game this season. We expect the Spartan receivers to get more opportunities in what should be a big victory.
Recommendation: Burbridge is a decent play based on our projections, as he does have a very high ceiling—I would use him more so in tournaments rather than cash games after what we saw last week however. Both RJ Shelton and DeAnthony Arnett can be considered as decent punt plays at the position.
Minnesota at Northwestern
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Northwestern -4
O/U: 40
Minnesota
Team Expected Points: 17.5
Northwestern has an elite defense allowing barely over a touchdown per game, while Minnesota is struggling to exceed 20 points on offense per game. This is a mismatch that we want no part in, especially with the measly 40 point O/U.
Northwestern
Team Expected Points: 22.5
While Northwestern has an elite defense, Minnesota’s defense is no pushover either as they barely allow over 300 yards per game. Vegas doesn’t expect much from this game, and neither do we. RB Justin Jackson (6,500) is always in consideration, but his price this week makes him a tough play outside of tournaments given the difficult matchup.
Iowa at Wisconsin
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Wisconsin -7
O/U: 47
Iowa
Team Expected Points: 20
Nobody from this game graded out well in our projections this week, as the defenses on both sides are very formidable. Pricing is not quite low enough on these players to warrant any viable plays.
Wisconsin
Team Expected Points: 27
Nobody from this game graded out well in our projections this week, as the defenses on both sides are very formidable. Pricing is not quite low enough on these players to warrant any viable plays.
West Virginia at Oklahoma
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma -7
O/U: 59.5
West Virginia
Team Expected Points: 25.75
QB – Skyler Howard – 6,500
Analysis: Skyler Howard has been a very consistent option at quarterback all season, scoring between 26 and 30 points in all 3 of his games this year. Howard’s touchdown count has increased each week as he threw for 4 against Maryland last week. We expect Howard to be throwing often as West Virginia is the underdog going into Norman this week. The Oklahoma defense can’t be taken lightly, but they certainly are not invincible as we saw Dane Evans pass for 427 yards and 4 touchdowns against them in Week 3.
Recommendation: While we don’t expect Howard to throw for 4 touchdowns again, he still represents a solid value play in a game where we expect him to be forced to pass often.
Javon Durante – 3,500, Shelton Gibson – 4,600
Analysis: Javon Durante disappointed us last week against Maryland as he only came up with 2 catches for 18 yards and failed to find the end zone in a game where his team scored 6 times. Last week was definitely discouraging, but Durante still has some upside to get into the end zone this week. Shelton Gibson on the other hand did not disappoint last week as he caught 6 balls for 118 yards and 2 touchdowns. Gibson has now scored in each of his games this season and is averaging over 100 yards per game with at least one 40+ yard play in each game.
Recommendation: Durante looked really good in the first 2 weeks of the season, so for this price we could certainly endorse a tournament play allowing some nice salary relief. Shelton Gibson has been very consistent this year, but he is not panning out too well in our projections as we think Durante has a bounce-back week and takes some of Gibson’s work away.
Oklahoma
Team Expected Points: 32.75
The Oklahoma offense is priced up this week as they face what has looked to be a solid West Virginia defense. The Sooners will pose a big test to this West Virginia defense, as the Mountaineers really have not played any quality competition as of yet. QB Baker Mayfield (8,300) always has the potential for a big game as he has shown a very high ceiling thus far this year. However this week, based on the pricing and matchup we would tend to look elsewhere for our fantasy production. The same can be said for the rest of Oklahoma’s offense, as prices are up across the board.
Texas at TCU
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: TCU -15
O/U: 71.5
Texas
Team Expected Points: 28.25
QB - Jerrod Heard- 7,000
Analysis: The Longhorns fought hard last week in a game that really disappointed us from a fantasy perspective. Jerrod Heard followed up a magical week 3 performance by passing for only 119 yards with no touchdowns and rushing 19 times for only 48 yards. Oklahoma State was a very tough matchup, so Heard gets some slight relieve this week as he will be doing all he can to keep up with TCU. The Horned Frogs have been really troubled by the injury bug this season, showing last week as they allowed over 600 yards of total offense to Texas Tech. While Texas is nowhere near Texas Tech in terms of offensive explosiveness, we think the upside is still there to put up points on a beat up TCU defense in this game with a favorable 71.5 O/U.
Recommendation: Jerrod Heard took a slight dip in price after last week’s stinker. We think he is a fringe value quarterback on the slate, more suited for tournaments due to lower ownership and upside in what could potentially be a shootout.
RB - Johnathan Gray- 5,100
Analysis: TCU has allowed an average of 170 rushing yards per game, giving up almost 200 yards and 4 touchdowns on the ground to DeAndre Washington last week. While Jonathan Gray will lose some carries to Jonathan Heard, we still expect Gray to get his work in with a chance to score at the goal line and be involved in the passing game.
Recommendation: Gray would really be a tournament only play for us this week, as the upside against a weak TCU defense is there, but Heard could all but cannibalize his opportunities as Texas tries to stay close in this game.
TCU
Team Expected Points: 43.25
TCU is, as usual, full of fantasy goodness this week. Trevone Boykin (9,200) is the second highest priced quarterback on the slate facing a Texas defense ranked 114th in the nation giving up nearly 500 yards per game. We expect TCU to easily cross that threshold, with Boykin at the center of it as usual. All TCU wide receivers are in play this week, with Josh Doctson (7,600) leading the charge after his insane 18-catches for 267 yards and 3 touchdowns last week. With Kolby Listenbee (4,000) likely to return this week, Doctson’s upside may be somewhat limited—but you can only limit a guy with his talent by so much. If Listenbee does play, his price of only 4,000 would make him an extremely attractive option as he has some immense big-play upside.
Recommendation: Trevone Boykin is one of the safest quarterback options on the board, usually worth paying up for. Josh Doctson is the same story, however if Listenbee is playing, we will definitely be working Kolby into quite a few lineups due to his very advantageous salary on a tightly priced slate.
Louisville at NC State
Kickoff: 12:30 PM EST
Spread: NC State -4
O/U: 50.5
Louisville
Team Expected Points: 23.25
QB - Lamar Jackson – 5,700
Analysis: Lamar Jackson looks to have solidified his starting spot after putting up gaudy numbers in the Cardinals’ first victory last week. NC State has a very solid defense on paper, allowing only 50 rushing yards and 156 passing yards per game—however, they have played very low quality opponents all season up until now. Lamar Jackson’s run-first playstyle could lead to trouble for Louisville as a team, but also a big day in terms of fantasy production.
Recommendation: Jackson is a risky play in this tough matchup on paper, but he can put up points in a variety of ways and is priced at a very low 5,700, making him a viable salary cap saving play as a QB2.
NC State
Team Expected Points: 27.25
RB- Matt Dayes – 5,300
Analysis: Matt Dayes has been extremely impressive this season, averaging 6 yards per carry for 454 yards and 9 touchdowns. With Shadrach Thornton’s recent dismissal from the team due to legal troubles, Dayes will be the go-to guy in this run-first Wolfpack offense. In his 2 games earlier this season without Thornton on the field, Dayes carried the ball 48 times for 242 yards and 5 touchdowns. Louisville has actually allowed over 170 rushing yards per game this season, showing that their defense is susceptible to a beating on the ground.
Recommendation: Watch for Dayes to get 20+ carries and exceed 100 yards with a shot at multiple touchdowns. The matchup is not ideal, but he is still a solid option at running back due to his upside from workload with Thornton gone for good.
Florida State at Wake Forest
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Florida State -19
O/U: 45.5
Florida State
Team Expected Points: 32.25
QB – Everett Golson – 7,400
Analysis: Everett Golson has been very efficient thru his 3 games starting for the Seminoles this season, sporting a 64% completion rate with nearly 600 passing yards and 6 touchdowns. Golson however sees a tough matchup this week against an above average Wake Forest defense which has only allowed an average of 145 passing yards and 150 rushing yards per game.
Recommendation: Golson is priced too high for us this week—there are better options to target out there.
RB – Dalvin Cook – 8,800
Analysis: Dalvin Cook was dominant in his first 2 games this year as he rushed for 422 yards and 5 touchdowns. Cook ran into a bit of a buzz saw in their last contest against the elite rushing defense of Boston College, as he was held to only 54 yards on 15 carries with no touchdowns. Cook is a very talented back, and although the Wake Forest defense is strong, they are not on the level of Boston College when it comes to defending the run.
Recommendation: The only thing stopping us from rolling out Cook this week is his price. There are so many options in much better spots this week, so due to the matchup and very low O/U, we have to fade Cook.
Wake Forest
Team Expected Points: 13.25
Wake Forest faces up against one of the best defenses in the league this week. WR/TE Cam Serigne (3,500) is a value play we can get behind due to his consistency, but we will not be able to promote either Wake Forest quarterback this week.
Nebraska at Illinois
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Nebraska -7
O/U: 57
Nebraska
Team Expected Points: 32
QB – Tommy Armstrong Jr – 7,100
Analysis: Nebraska takes on an Illinois team ranked 24th overall in defense this week. However, we are not buying that defensive ranking on paper after seeing Illinois cough up 48 points in an embarrassing loss to North Carolina Week 3. A great comparison can be made between Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong and North Carolina’s Marquise Williams—both around 6’1, 220 lbs. representing the threat to throw the ball downfield or get it done with their legs. While Williams is a much more elusive runner, Armstrong is the better passer and can still make plays with his legs when needed. Armstrong has surpassed 300 yards in 3 of 4 games this season, throwing for multiple touchdowns in each and rushing for around 49 yards and 63 yards in his last 2 games.
Recommendation: We think 7,100 is undervaluing the consistency that Armstrong brings to the table. Feel free to roll him out in cash games as a relatively cheaper but safe option at the position.
WR – Brandon Reilly – 3,700
Analysis: Brandon Reilly is the WR2 for Nebraska and represents what we see as a solid value this week. Jordan Westerkamp is the clear go-to option in this offense, but Reilly has put up very consistent numbers this season in his secondary role. Reilly has consistently caught 3-5 balls per game while never dipping below 70 receiving yards. While he may not be targeted much in the red zone, Reilly has the chance to catch a long ball here and there as he showed last week with a 49-yard long reception on his way to a season-high 112 yards.
Recommendation: For only 3,700, Reilly is a very attractive value play this week. We think he might be relatively overlooked this week, making him playable in all formats.
Illinois
Team Expected Points: 25
QB – Wes Lunt – 6,200
Analysis: Wes Lunt is in a good spot against Nebraska this week. The Cornhuskers defense is allowing over 36 points per game this season, ranked dead last in passing yards allowed per game at 379.5. Last week, Nebraska allowed Southern Mississippi to absolutely bludgeon them through the air with 447 total passing yards, so a much more talented Illinois team certainly has some upside this week. Wes Lunt will not get you any points with his legs, but he certainly has 300+ yard upside in a game where we expect Illinois to target Nebraska’s secondary since the Cornhuskers actually have an effective run defense.
Recommendation: Lunt is cheap and has a nice ceiling given his matchup. Lunt is a great play in all formats at this price tier. His WR1 Geronimo Allison is priced slightly up at 5,500 but could make a great under-owned stack in tournaments as he could easily exceed 100 yards with 6-8 receptions.
Alabama at Georgia
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Georgia -2
O/U: 53.5
Alabama
Team Expected Points: 25.75
The Alabama offense has not been too impressive this season as they have struggled to find consistency at quarterback. RB Derrick Henry (7,900) has reached the end zone at least once in each game this season, but we can’t recommend him for 7,900 facing Georgia’s defense allowing just over 100 rushing yards per game.
Georgia
Team Expected Points: 27.75
Georgia is also in a tough spot this week against the 12th ranked Alabama defense. With the Crimson Tide allowing only 57 rushing yards per game, RB Nick Chubb (8,600) may not find much room to run in this matchup. While we can never count out an elite talent like Chubb, we can’t justify paying elite pricing for him this week in one of the toughest matchups on the board.
Boston College at Duke
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Duke -7
O/U: 39.5
Boston College
Team Expected Points: 16.25
Vegas agrees that it’s tough to score touchdowns while playing through a hurricane. Regardless of weather concerns, we would still be fading this game completely in what looks to be a defensive standoff.
Duke
Team Expected Points: 23.25
Vegas agrees that it’s tough to score touchdowns while playing through a hurricane. Regardless of weather concerns, we would still be fading this game completely in what looks to be a defensive standoff.
Texas Tech at Baylor
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Baylor -15
O/U: 90
Texas Tech
Team Expected Points: 36.5
With this O/U looking more like an NCAA basketball game, we can expect plenty of fantasy relevance out of pretty much everyone on these teams. Texas Tech is the underdog in this contest, meaning QB Patrick Mahomes (8,500) should have his hands full if he is healthy enough to play. Mahomes has been dealing with a knee injury that has him questionable to play on Saturday. If Mahomes is ruled out, backup QB Davis Webb (7,300) becomes an instant top value play. WR Jakeem Grant (7,100) had a great showing last week against TCU with nearly 30 fantasy points, but he has been inconsistent all year with only 2 touchdowns on the season. WR Devin Lauderdale (4,800) is another option, also inconsistent but a big-play candidate each and every game. RB DeAndre Washington (5,500) is in another good spot this week after putting up 188 yards on the ground against TCU last week. Washington had typically only been involved in the passing game before last week, and now he proved his danger on the ground as well.
Recommendation: DeAndre Washington can be considered in all formats, while we would only target Jakeem Grand and Devin Lauderdale in tournaments. We plan on fading Mahomes due to his injury concerns, but Davis Webb becomes an instant value if he gets the start.
Baylor
Team Expected Points: 51.5
Baylor players will be very popular this week, as usual. QB Seth Russell (9,300) is the highest priced and safest quarterback option on the slate as his floor is extremely high. His top 3 receivers WR Corey Coleman (7,900), WR KD Cannon (6,000), and WR Jay Lee (5,500) are all solid plays. Coleman is one of the best wide receivers in football, but he is priced at the top of the list this slate—so it will be tough to fit him in. Cannon has not looked great in his last 2 games only receiving 3 receptions for 43 yards, but he had a great week 1 and plenty of success in his freshman campaign last season. Senior Jay Lee has shown he can be a red zone target with his 4 touchdowns this season. The 1 game Lee did not score in, he caught 9 balls for 111 yards. RB Shock Linwood (7,300) has been splitting carries with Terence Williams, so at his price, we can’t justify the play outside of tournaments.
Recommendation: Seth Russell and Corey Coleman are the safest and highest projected plays at their positions on this slate, but you will have to pay and arm and a leg for each as they are both the highest priced. We have identified some values, so either is certainly worth building your lineups around in cash game formats. Look to KD Cannon or Jay Lee for some slight salary relief.
Ohio State at Indiana
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Ohio State -21
O/U: 64
Ohio State
Team Expected Points: 42.5
The Ohio State passing game is in a really good spot this week squaring off against an Indiana defense allowing over 360 passing yards per game, good for 126th in the FBS. QB Cardale Jones (7,900) played for the vast majority of snaps last season, solidifying his role as quarterback and alleviating our doubts regarding a potential 2-QB system. Cardale had his best passing day of the year as he threw for 288 yards and 2 touchdowns, great momentum going into the solid matchup this week. We expect to see more production this week out of WR Michael Thomas (4,900) at wide receiver after he posted a season-high 6 receptions for 80 yards last week, showing a solid connection with Cardale Jones. RB Jalin Marshall (4,000) is more of a wide receiver as he doesn’t get carries, but he is an elite playmaker when given the opportunity. You get the added upside with Marshall as he returns punts and kicks for the Buckeyes as well. And finally, RB Ezekiel Elliott (8,400) is the workhorse of this offense, averaging nearly 20 carries per game with over 100 yards in every contest. Elliott may not have the gaudy numbers of other elite running backs, but he has just as much talent and potential to break out at any point.
Recommendation: Cardale Jones is a solid play at quarterback this week, offering plenty of upside with some slight salary relief over other top options. Both Michael Thomas and (especially) Jalin Marshall offer great value, but we’d rather have them for tournaments than cash games. Ezekiel Elliott has the best matchup out of all the top-tier backs this weekend, making him an acceptable play if paying up at running back.
Indiana
Team Expected Points: 21.5
Indiana will try to remain undefeated as they face a very tough Ohio State defense this week. The Buckeyes are only allowing just over 250 total yards and 12.3 points per game this season. While Indiana has some playmakers in RB Jordan Howard (7,200) and WR Ricky Jones (4,400), we would have to recommend fading them outside of tournaments against Ohio State.
North Carolina at Georgia Tech
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Georgia Tech -7.5
O/U: 61.5
North Carolina
Team Expected Points: 27
The North Carolina offense does not grade out well this week as they are up against what should be a much slower-paced game than what they are accustomed to. QB Marquise Williams (8,300) was benched after injury last week, and even though he has been announced as the starter for this week, we can never count Larry Fedora out for the chance to surprise us given the success backup Mitch Trubisky had in the second half last weekend. With the doubts and slower tempo expected in this contest, we will be fading the Tar Heels offense.
Georgia Tech
Team Expected Points: 34.5
RB – Patrick Skov – 5,700, Marcus Marshall – 3,200
Analysis: Patrick Skov continues to lead the Yellow Jackets running backs in carries each week as he rushed 19 times for 75 yards against Duke last week. Skov is a power runner averaging 4.4 yards per carry with 5 touchdowns on the year. Georgia Tech is in a really good spot this week facing North Carolina after the Tar Heels gave up 279 rushing yards to an inferior Delaware team last week. North Carolina is allowing an average of 228 rushing yards per game this season, a number that could not look much better to this Georgia Tech team that could run all over them.
Recommendation: Patrick Skov should be used in tournament formats as he has some huge upside this week in a dream matchup against North Carolina. However as with any back in the Yellow Jackets system, even with Skov leading the pack in carries he is never a sure thing for production as anyone could step up. Marcus Marshall has been quiet since week 1, but at near minimum price he is worth a punt in tournament formats due to this great matchup.
Kansas State at Oklahoma State
Kickoff: 4:00 PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma State -8
O/U: 50
Kansas State
Team Expected Points: 20.75
There just are not many fantasy-relevant players on the Kansas State offense this season, as they play in a run-heavy scheme that spreads the ball out to multiple mediocre backs while splitting the receptions evenly between their 3 top receivers. We can’t pick out any players safe enough to target this week, especially against a decent Oklahoma State defense.
Oklahoma State
Team Expected Points: 29.25
QB – Mason Rudolph – 6,500
Analysis: While Kansas State is only allowing 12 points per game this season on paper, we have to point out that they gave up 33 in the near-loss to Louisiana Tech while allowing only 3 points to UTSA and 0 to SDAK. This defense is nothing to write home about, so we think Mason Rudolph should have room to throw in this matchup. While the O/U is not too awfully high, Rudolph has shown that he can perform consistently and put up solid yardage game after game. Oklahoma State is trying to prove they can contend in the Big 12 this week by moving to 5-0, so we look for a big game out of Mason Rudolph.
Recommendation: We are projecting Rudolph to throw for over 300 and a couple of touchdowns, totals that would be just fine for his price on the day. Feel free to roll with Rudolph as a cheaper option with similar upside as Skyler Howard (minus the rushing ability), also at 6,500.
WR – David Glidden – 4,200
Analysis: David Glidden has been consistently performing all year for the Cowboys as he’s averaged 4 receptions and 81 yards per game with 3 touchdowns. Glidden had a big game against Central Arkansas in week and has since tapered off with only 6 receptions for 108 yards and a touchdown in his last 2 games. Despite his recent slight slide in production, Glidden remains the top option for Mason Rudolph to throw to and could be set up for a nice day against an overrated Kansas State defense.
Recommendation: Glidden is priced attractively at only 4,200 with some decent upside in this situation. Look for Glidden for price relief in cash games and a great stack if you play Mason Rudolph at quarterback.
Washington State at California
Kickoff: 4:00 PM EST
Spread: Cal -19
O/U: 70.5
Washington State
Team Expected Points: 25
With Washington State expected to struggle against Cal, most of their offense is really overpriced based on our projections. QB Luke Falk (8,900), WR River Cracraft (6,500), and WR Gabe Marks (6,700) are all priced too high for us to consider this week considering their expected production and Team Expected Points. It's a split carry situation in Washington State's backfield, but both running backs present upside due to their ability to catch the ball combined with their price. We prefer RB Keith Harrington (3,900) due to having more talent and upside than RB Gerard Wicks (3,600).Harrington is riskier than Wicks due to being a freshman and has not seen as many carries as Wicks thus far this season. Both should be
California
Team Expected Points: 44.5
RB - Daniel Lasco – 5,700
Analysis: Daniel Lasco is expected back this Saturday based on how he performs in practice. Lasco will be returning to a solid matchup against Washington State’s run defense that is allowing 181.3 rushing yards per game to teams with sub-par rushing attacks. In Lasco’s 1 healthy start this season, he averaged 6.5 yards per carry for 123 yards and a touchdown. Lasco was a 1000-yard back last season, so we know he should be a big part of this offensive attack, especially with Cal expected to roll to a double digit victory.
Recommendation: Lasco is one of the top running back plays of the day as he represents an excellent value should he be 100% healthy and starting.
QB – Jared Goff – 8,600
Analysis: Jared Goff continued his consistent production last week as he passed for 342 yards and 2 touchdowns on the day. Goff has been cruising along this season with very flat numbers thus far. He is priced up in this matchup, so it will take a spike in production for Goff to really pay off his top level salary this week. We think Cal runs the ball heavily in this contest as they try to keep the ball away from what can be a dangerous up-tempo Washington State passing attack.
Recommendation: Goff is priced higher than we’d like to see. While he has a high floor and relatively high ceiling, we would rather target other options at quarterback in this price range.