Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 9-12-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 15 (30 teams)
Houston at Louisville
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Louisville -13
O/U: 54
Houston
Team Expected Points: 21.25
QB – Greg Ward Jr – 7,900
Analysis: Houston put up over 600 yards of offense last week, with Greg Ward Jr accounting for 275 of them through the air and 101 of them on the ground. Ward added 1 passing touchdown and 2 rushing touchdowns to what was a great fantasy week. Ward is dangerous, and in this new system Houston is not afraid to let him lead the show. This matchup will present a challenge for Ward, as Louisville did a good job containing Auburn last week and forcing 3 turnovers.
Recommendation: Ward is dangerous, but at this price we think the matchup is too tough for him to be a viable play in cash games.
WR – Demarcus Ayers – 6,000
Analysis: Ayers had a monster week 1 with 10 receptions for 121 yards. He did not make it into the end zone, but he got more than double the receptions of any other player—something we absolutely love to see in a fantasy wide receiver.
Recommendation: His price is up this week at 6,000, but the upside is certainly there for Demarcus Ayers. Against the Louisville defense, he is not the safest of plays—but feel free to use him in tournaments.
Louisville
Team Expected Points: 32.75
QB – Lamar Jackson – 6,100
Analysis: We finally have clarity with the Louisville quarterback situation with freshman Lamar Jackson named as the starter. Jackson did not put up a good showing in terms of quarterback numbers last week, going 9 for 20 (45%) for only 100 yards and 1 interception. However this was in part due to bad offensive line play, as Louisville allowed pressure on 42.2% of the quarterback’s drop backs. Because of this, Jackson took the opportunity to showcase his legs by rushing 16 times for 106 yards. The Houston defense allowed over 300 passing yards to a suspect TN Tech defense last week, so we think Jackson may have a better showing through the air in addition to racking up some rushing yards.
Recommendation: The dual threat quarterbacks are almost always in play for at least tournament lineups, and Jackson is no exception as this game should be close enough for him to see most of the snaps. At 6,100, he is certainly a value and could be used in both cash and tournament lineups.
RB – Brandon Radcliff – 5,900
Analysis: Brandon Radcliff is the feature back in this Louisville offense. They will be continuing to break in the freshman quarterback, which normally would be a good thing for a workhorse running back such as Radcliff. We do think Jackson should pose a risk of eating away at Radcliff’s opportunities, but we still look for Louisville to run often while keeping the Houston offense off the field.
Recommendation: Radcliff is a feature back priced below 6,000. We think this is too low, so feel free to plug him into cash game lineups this week.
Miami Ohio at Wisconsin
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Wisconsin -32
O/U: 52
Miami Ohio
Team Expected Points: 9.5
The Wisconsin defense struggled against Alabama last week, but we don’t think they are as bad as they looked against one of the best teams in the country. Miami Ohio has the lowest Team Expected Points on the slate, so they are a clear team fade.
Wisconsin
Team Expected Points: 43.5
RB – Corey Clement – 6,700, Taiwan Deal – 4,900
Analysis: Wisconsin is on blowout alert this week as a 32 point favorite at home. After an embarrassing loss to Alabama last week, the Badgers should be ready to run up the score in Miami Ohio. Albeit Wisconsin did not have much luxury to rush the ball against a stout Alabama defense last week, we expect much more of a ground game this week. Corey Clement is priced down this week since he is banged up with a groin injury. Coach Chryst says Clement is questionable to play, while Clement himself assures us that he plans to be in the game. The last time Wisconsin was a 30+ point favorite coming off a loss, Melvin Gordon rushed for 270 yards. If Clement does play, his injury would be the only reason why he couldn’t do the same. In case Clement is out, look to Taiwan Deal as next in line to receive carries.
Recommendation: We normally would be all over Corey Clement at 6,700; however you must take into consideration both the blowout potential and injury risk this situation presents. We highly doubt Wisconsin coaches will allow Clement to keep playing into the second half once Wisconsin goes up by a few touchdowns. However, it is very likely that those touchdowns may all belong to Clement—at 6,700, he does not need too many to easily pay off.
Oregon State at Michigan
Kickoff: 12:00 PM EST
Spread: Michigan -14.5
O/U: 45.5
Oregon State
Team Expected Points: 15.5
QB – Seth Collins – 6,500
Analysis: Freshman quarterback Seth Collins went into last week sharing the starting job with Marcus McMaryion. However after passing for a couple of touchdowns and rushing for a remarkable 152 yards, Oregon State coach named Collins the clear week 2 starter. One item of concern is that Collins only managed to pass for 92 yards in what is supposed to be an explosive passing game running the spread offense. Collins faces a whole new animal this week in the Michigan defense, so his opportunities to make plays should be severely limited.
Recommendation: We would not recommend playing Collins or any other Oregon State players this week against a stout Michigan defense.
Michigan
Team Expected Points: 30
QB – Jake Rudock – 5,900
Analysis: The new Michigan quarterback struggled last week at Utah, passing for 279 yards with 2 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Rudock should have an easier task this week taking on Oregon State in his first game in The Big House. Oregon State is not known for their defense, and with Michigan’s lackluster running attack, we expect to see Rudock get plenty of passing opportunities this week as Michigan looks for redemption.
Recommendation: Rudock’s price of 5,900 is too low for what we think he will be capable of this week. Rudock may not be the best quarterback on the board in terms of potential, but because of that price, he tops our Points per Salary list at 6.0. Rudock can be targeted in all formats.
WE – Amara Darboh – 5,100
Analysis: Amara Darboh appears to be the clear WR1 in this Michigan offense that we expect to be much more pass heavy this season. Darboh hauled in 8 receptions for 101 yards and a touchdown last week, and we think he has similar upside in this contest as well.
Recommendation: At 5,100, Darboh represents another Michigan value play. A Rudock – Darboh stack in tournaments or cash lineups is certainly in play, as we expect fairly low ownership for Darboh.
WR (TE) – Jake Butt – 4,400
Analysis: Jake Butt’s numbers looked like they should have come from a WR1 last week as he equaled Amara Darboh in receptions with 8. That many receptions plus 93 yards and a touchdown is scary good usage for a tight end.
Recommendation: We think Butt’s production is much more likely to receive a cut this week than WR1 Amara Darboh, so expect a regression from the breakout of week 1. Butt should be on a lot of people’s radar this week due to his Week 1 usage and lower price, so we would rather you roll with the Darboh this week.
Appalachian State at Clemson
Kickoff: 12:30 PM EST
Spread: Clemson -17
O/U: 58.5
Appalachian State
Team Expected Points: 20
Appalachian State players are priced down for good reason this week. Unless going contrarian in a tournament, avoid them against the stellar Clemson defense.
Clemson
Team Expected Points: 38
QB – Deshaun Watson – 9,900
Analysis: Deshaun Watson is one of the best most dangerous quarterbacks in football. He was very efficient last week in limited reps, connecting on 18 of 22 attempts for 194 yards and a couple touchdowns. Watson is the highest priced quarterback on the slate, but we have him projected to safely outscore his competition.
Recommendation: If paying up for quarterback, Watson will be your safest option at this price tier. Don’t build your lineup around him this week, but if you find yourself in a position to afford a 9000+ quarterback, he may be worth shifting things around to make it work.
WR – Artavis Scott– 7,900 , Ray Ray McCloud – 4,700, Germone Hopper – 4,400, Deon Cain – 3,000
Analysis: The loss of Mike Williams has lofted Artavis Scott into elite WR1 territory. At 7,900, Scott is the second most expensive receiver on the slate. While we think he has a good game, some of the guys behind him represent much better values in this situation. Ray Ray McCloud is the popular name after his 8-catch outing last week—he is a 5-star talent, slightly on the small side at 5’10, but has plenty of upside along with a shown connection with Watson. Germone Hopper is actually listed as the starter in lieu of Williams, so expect him to be on the field and get some looks. And finally, we expect freshman Deon Cain to definitely get some attention. Cain is another 5-star recruit, actually ranked higher than McCloud coming into this season. At 6’2, Cain will have the most size on the field and could be in store for some deep looks.
Recommendation: There are plenty of options in this wide receiving core to pick from. We would recommend fading Scott due to his price in this situation. Deon Cain at minimum salary definitely represents the best value, as he has just as much upside as the higher priced McCloud and Hopper.
Wake Forest at Syracuse
Kickoff: 12:30 PM EST
Spread: Syracuse -4.5
O/U: 43.5
Wake Forest
Team Expected Points: 18.5
WR (TE) – Cam Serigne – 3,600
Analysis: Serigne had a great Week 1 with 3 catches for 60 yards and a touchdown on the receiving end of a spectacular performance by John Wolford. Due to the weak Elon defense, Wolford was able to really spread out his targets since most receivers were able to easily get open. This week, that story changes as Wake Forest faces a tough Syracuse defense. We think this actually benefits Serigne, as he has the talent and ability to get open while others on the Demon Deacon offense may not. Serigne should have another solid outing as he will be a go-to option while Wolford faces additional pressure.
Recommendation: Serigne represents a great value this week as he is priced down due to his tight end status. Feel free to plug in Serigne as a cheap play in both cash and tournament lineups.
Syracuse
Team Expected Points: 24.5
Syracuse lost their quarterback for the season last week and is expected to be breaking in freshman Eric Dungey. With a very cheap salary of 5,400, Dungey is on the table as a GPP play only. Their freshman running back Jordan Fredericks had a good game in Week 1, but with starter Devante McFarlane expected to return this week, a committee approach is likely to be used. Unless rolling Dungey out in a tournament, avoid the Orange offense.
Fresno State at Mississippi
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Mississippi -30
O/U: 55
Fesno State
Team Expected Points: 13.75
Running back Marteze Waller had impressive numbers week 1 rushing for 154 yards on 22 carries, but don’t expect that much production against the Ole Miss defense this week. Waller is priced a bit high for us at 6,100 this week, and we don’t think Fresno State will have many chances to run while playing from behind all day. We would recommend avoiding this offense outside of a tournament flyer on Waller.
Mississippi
Team Expected Points: 40.25
QB – Chad Kelly – 7,700
Analysis: Chad Kelly racked up decent numbers in his limited snaps las week, passing for 211 yards and a couple touchdowns. We expect a closer margin than 73 points in this game, but this one still should be a hefty blowout. The Fresno State passing defense is atrocious, allowing over 450 yards per game last season. This matchup is ripe for upside at the quarterback position, and we think Chad Kelly is set up for a big game even with limited playing time.
Recommendation: Chad Kelly is priced down at 7,700. Even with the potential to lose snaps, Kelly will make it into a few of my lineups due to the great value he presents being priced down in a great matchup.
WR – Laquon Treadwell – 5,600
Analysis: Treadwell was still playing into the third quarter of last week’s blowout, hauling in 4 receptions on 7 targets for 44 yards. The Ole Miss quarterbacks tried to get him in the end zone a couple of times but failed. Look for Treadwell to remain the top receiving option and sneak into the end zone this week.
Recommendation: At this price, Treadwell represents a safe play in both cash and tournament games since we think he should make it into the end zone in addition to hauling in 5+ receptions. Look for the stack with Chad Kelly in tournaments.
TE – Evan Engram – 3,600
Analysis: After only hauling in 1 catch for 5 yards last week, we would expect a slight bounce-back for one of the best tight ends in the country—however Engram still lacks the red zone usage we would like to see.
Recommendation: Engram being priced at 3,600 is usually hard to avoid, however this week, we would rather have Cam Serigne at that same price.
Hawaii at Ohio State
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Ohio State -41
O/U: 65
Hawaii
Team Expected Points: 12
Hawaii is facing the Buckeyes with only a 12 point Team Expected Points—we are most definitely avoiding them.
Ohio State
Team Expected Points: 53
This game has blowout written all over it with Ohio State favored by 40 points. Quarterback Cardale Jones (9,200) and running back Ezekiel Elliott (9,500) are both priced far too high to be safe plays since this game will get out of hand so quickly. Braxton Miller priced at 6,300 is more affordable, but still overpriced considering what should realistically be expected from him. Running back Jalin Marshall is priced at only 4,300 in his first game back from suspension. Marshall is worth a GPP play at that price as he should get plenty of touches once Elliott is benched for the day.
Minnesota at Colorado State
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Minnesota -5
O/U: 54
Minnesota
Team Expected Points: 29.25
QB – Mitch Leidner – 5,700
Analysis: Mitch Leidner had a rough game last week, passing for less than 200 yards for only 1 touchdown and only rushing for net 23 yards on 12 attempts. However TCU’s defense is on a different level than what Leidner can expect this week from Colorado State. With his limited rushing ability, Leidner should give you some decent upside at quarterback this week if he can add a touchdown with his legs.
Recommendation: At 5,700, Leidner is a solid punt play at quarterback. Receiver KJ Maye could be considered in tournaments as well with a 4,100 price tag. We would recommend avoiding the Minnesota backfield as it seems to be going towards a committee approach this week.
Colorado State
Team Expected Points: 24.75
QB – Nick Stevens – 6,800
Analysis: Nick Stevens exploded for 5 touchdowns last week in the easy win against Savannah State. We expect him to take a huge step back this week against Minnesota. The Golden Gophers defense gave a Heisman front-runner fits last week limiting Trevone Boykin to only 1 touchdown through the air and 23 total points for the TCU offense, so we certainly expect for Colorado State to struggle mightily this week.
Recommendation: Stevens is priced up from his performance last week. At this price tier, there are quarterbacks in better matchups to target this week.
WR – Rashad Higgins – 8,600
Analysis: Higgins was held out of practice this week, but coach Mike Bobo confirmed on Wednesday that he expects Higgins to be ready for Saturday. Last week Higgins led the team with 7 receptions for 84 yards and a touchdown in the blowout victory. Higgins is an elite talent, but he faces a much tougher Minnesota defense that limited the explosive TCU offense to only 1 touchdown through the air last week.
Recommendation: Higgins is elite, but we don’t think he is a viable play this week at his price as he has a very tough matchup against an elite Minnesota secondary.
Notre Dame at Virginia
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Notre Dame -12
O/U: 47.5
Notre Dame
Team Expected Points: 30
QB – Malik Zaire – 7,300
Analysis: Zaire had an incredible game at quarterback last week, throwing for an immaculate 86.4%, good for 2nd best by any quarterback in Notre Dame history. We knew Zaire was dangerous on the ground, and his performance last week solidified that he is far from one-dimensional. The Virginia defense should present a greater challenge than Texas did last week, but we still think Zaire leads Notre Dame to a relatively easy victory and puts up solid fantasy numbers in the process.
Recommendation: Zaire has a mid-level price and should represent a decent value this week. We don’t think he has premium upside as Notre Dame should be able to take a fairly balanced approach to this game, but with the weapons at his disposal, Zaire can easily hit value. Look for Zaire in both cash and tournament formats.
RB – CJ Prosise – 5,200
Analysis: With Tarean Folston out for the year, CJ Prosise should fill in as the feature back in what looks to be a potent Notre Dame offense. Prosise looked good in week 1 rushing for almost 100 yards on 20 carries. Prosise should get a similar workload this week with a good shot at getting in the end zone. His potential is somewhat limited though by what should be a solid Virginia rush defense. Most of UCLA’s success last week came through the air, with Virginia actually limiting the UCLA starting running back to only 59 yards on 14 carries.
Recommendation: Prosise comes in with a very manageable 5,200 salary. We expect Notre Dame to maintain a comfortable lead throughout this game and feed Prosise 20-25 carries to help put it away. The matchup is not ideal, but based on our projections Prosise ranks 2nd on the slate in Points per Salary—so he represents a solid lower/mid-tier value play at running back.
WR – Will Fuller – 7,600
Analysis: Fuller had a monster performance last week (7rec / 142yds / 2td), making him Week 1’s 6th overall highest scoring wide receiver. Fuller is an elite talent and the 3rd highest priced receiver on the slate this week. However, similar to his elite peer Rashad Higgins this week, Fuller finds himself in a tough matchup against a challenging Virginia secondary. Yes, they were picked apart by a freshman quarterback for 350+ yards last week, but we think the Virginia defense is better than they played last week.
Recommendation: Fuller has just as much potential to explode as any wide receiver on the slate, making him an always-acceptable GPP target. However, there are some great values below 7k at wide receiver this week, making it unnecessary to pay the premium for Fuller this week unless you just have the salary lying around.
Virginia
Team Expected Points: 19.5
The Notre Dame defense looked elite last week, while the Virginia quarterback Matt Johns struggled against what should not have been that great of a UCLA defense. Virginia had trouble establishing an effective rushing game and lacks playmakers at the wide receiver position. Running back Taquan Mizzell (5,800) could be used in tournament formats due to his upside from receptions, but we are really not comfortable with his price at all this week. We really recommend avoiding the Virginia offense in this contest.
Tulane at Georgia Tech
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Georgia Tech -30.5
O/U: 54.5
Tulane
Team Expected Points: 12.25
We are not expecting many points out of Tulane this week as Georgia Tech should roll. Fade the Green Wave this week.
Georgia Tech
Team Expected Points: 42.5
QB – Justin Thomas – 8,500
Analysis: After a stinker last week, we have no reason to suspect much more from Thomas this week in what should be yet another blowout win. With all the options in the rushing game, it is tough to predict any consistency from this team, especially when they should be up by >2 touchdowns within the first few minutes facing a Tulane team that allowed over 500 yards last week to Duke.
Recommendation: We can’t pay 8,500 for Thomas this week considering the competition for carries in this backfield.
RB – Patrick Skov – 4,400, Marcus Marshall – 4,200
Analysis: With Skov receiving the majority of carries last week, signs point to him being the primary back. However just as we said above, in what should be a blowout victory, we would not be surprised if Georgia Tech spreads the ball around to further test their weapons and save their starters before one of their most important games of the season against Notre Dame in week 3.
Recommendation: Skov at 4,400 represents a decent value since we expect him to receive most carries on what should be a high scoring affair for the Yellow Jackets. However Marcus Marshall has just as much of an argument for carries after his 184-yard performance last week. With 8 running backs (not including Justin Thomas), this backfield is too crowded for a cash game play---but feel free to take a tournament flyer on either of these guys.
Georgia at Vanderbilt
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Georgia -20.5
O/U: 51.5
Georgia
Team Expected Points: 37
RB – Nick Chubb – 9,800, Sony Michel – 5,000
Analysis: As usual, we expect Georgia to run early and often against Vanderbilt this week. Also as usual, we find Chubb as the highest priced running back on the slate. Vanderbilt actually has an OK defense, but we still think Chubb has his way with them during the limited time he plays. Last season Chubb rushed 8 times for 78 yards against the Commodores playing as a backup to Todd Gurley. As the starter, we think he doubles that production and adds at least a couple touchdowns.
Recommendation: Nick Chubb is much more playable this week as he should get a few more chances to produce. At 9,800, you will have to really take advantage of some of the other value plays on the board to fit him in, which could limit your overall upside—but Chubb is a player that can easily put up the performance to carry your team any time he is on the field. Backup Sony Michel can be considered for tournament formats at a more feasible 5,000 price tag.
Vanderbilt
Team Expected Points: 17.5
The Vanderbilt offense looked horrible last week, failing to even score a single touchdown at home in their season opener against a bad Western Kentucky defense that was ranked 122nd overall last season in total yards and points allowed. There are no strong plays for the Vanderbilt offense this week against Georgia.
Toledo at Arkansas
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Arkansas -21.5
O/U: 54
Toledo
Team Expected Points: 15.25
Arkansas has another top defense. With the absence of star running back Kareem Hunt, Toledo has nobody to really pose much of a threat. We are fading them this week.
Arkansas
Team Expected Points: 37.25
QB – Brandon Allen – 7,800
Analysis: In his season opener last week against a weak UTEP team, Brandon Allen shined going 14 for 18 for 308 passing yards and 4 touchdowns as he played almost the entire game in a blowout victory. We would normally tag this one with upset alert, but last week was very encouraging to see Allen in the game for that long and passing that efficiently. However, Allen did only throw the ball 18 times in what will continue to be a run-heavy Arkansas offense. We think his numbers regress this week.
Recommendation: Allen showed he has potential after last week’s performance, but his price of 7,800 is just too high for a quarterback leading a rushing-centric offense such as Arkansas. He should be safe for a couple touchdowns and 200+ yards, but we would place our bets on a repeat performance from last week.
RB – Alex Collins – 8,900, Rawleigh Williams III – 4,000, Kody Walker – 3,900
Analysis: Alex Collins put up good numbers last week with 127 yards and a touchdown, but a large chunk of that came on 1 70-yard touchdown run. Outside of that run, Collins actually looked rough barely averaging 5 yards per carry. Don’t get me wrong—Collins is still a great running back in an even better offensive situation since Arkansas loves to pound the rock. We just are not projecting enough yardage and enough yardage and multi-touchdown upside to use him above the other elite options this week. Both backup running backs struggled last week, failing to exceed an average of 3 yards per carry. Rawleigh Williams got the vast majority of carries at 16 compared to Kody Walker’s 5 carries.
Recommendation: At his elite price of 8,900, it’s tough to play Collins this week when we expect him to be pulled in the third quarter. The backups Williams and Walker are attractively priced, but not knowing which one of them should get the lion’s share of the carries makes either a tough play.
WR (TE) – Hunter Henry – 3,400
Analysis: Hunter Henry hauled in a couple receptions for 42 yards last week, including one big play of 38 yards. We think Henry is used often in the tight end spot this season and could garner a few more looks this coming week if Allen continues to pass as efficiently as he did last week.
Recommendation: We would only recommend Henry as a punt play at wide receiver in tournament formats, as he should be very low owned.
Washington State at Rutgers
Kickoff: 3:30 PM EST
Spread: Rutgers -3.5
O/U: 62
Washington State
Team Expected Points: 30
QB – Luke Falk – 9,300
Analysis: The Washington State offense really struggled in the gloomy weather conditions last week against Portland State. Falk really disappointed us passing for under 300 yards for the first time in his career as a starter. Falk suffered a shoulder injury late in the game last week, but based on practice reports the reports indicate that he will be ready to start on Saturday. We think he has a significant bounce-back this week, but will still need a lot to pay off his steep price tag.
Recommendation: Despite his lackluster showing, Falk is still priced up at 9,300 this week. Falk should bounce back to his normal self (if the weather holds up). We think this is a high scoring game, and Falk should be able to pay of his salary.
WR – River Cracraft – 6,900, Gabe Marks – 6,400, Dom Williams – 5,000
Analysis: The Washington State wide receivers are always intriguing targets for DFS purposes. Gabe Marks and Dom Williams led the team in receptions last week, but all 3 guys should get plenty of opportunities going forward. With River Cracraft getting only 2 receptions last week and his price remaining the highest, we would expect his ownership levels to be fairly depressed this week. Dom Williams will be a much more popular play.
Recommendation: River Cracraft is priced up, but would make for an excellent tournament target due to his high upside and lower expected ownership this week due to that price and bad week 1 showing. Dom Williams is more of your cash game play as he is priced well below where we think he should be at 5,000.
Rutgers
Team Expected Points: 32
WR – Leonte Carroo – 6,700
Analysis: We really like the Rutgers offense this week. Leonte Carroo took the second half by storm last week with a touchdown on all 3 of his receptions, totaling a whopping 129 yards. This was good for 5th best in all of college football, and in only 1 half of play due to a 1st half suspension. Rutgers will have to throw to keep up with the Washington State offense, and Carroo is a favorite target. Look for another big game from him this week, especially since he gets a full 60 minutes.
Recommendation: There is no reason for Carroo to be priced at 6,700 this week. He is our favorite play at wide receiver and will be the highest owned wide receiver on the slate.
QB – Chris Laviano – 6,800
Analysis: Chris Laviano also had a great second half last week since he fueled all 3 of those Carroo touchdown passes. As we said above, this game should be a shootout with Rutgers being forced to throw the ball to keep up with Washington State.
Recommendation: We think Laviano out-performs his price this week and makes for an excellent stack with Carroo in your cash game lineups. Laviano should be relatively lower-owned, so feel free to play him in tournaments even if you are fading Carroo in those formats.
Middle Tennessee State at Alabama
Kickoff: 4:00 PM EST
Spread: Alabama -35
O/U: 56.5
Middle Tennessee State
Team Expected Points: 10.75
We can safely say that most teams will be faded against the Alabama defense this year, with MTSU certainly being no exception to that rule. Keep scrolling.
Alabama
Team Expected Points: 45.25
Alabama is a 35 point favorite at home this week against what should be a cakewalk opponent in MTSU. Their running game will certainly be rolling on all cylinders, but we think it gets out of hand too quickly for the 9,200 Derrick Henry to pay off his salary. Even backup Kenyan Drake is priced too high at 6,300 for us to consider here. Even with the high total, we will be fading the Alabama offense in cash games this week.
Iowa at Iowa State
Kickoff: 4:45 PM EST
Spread: Iowa -3.5
O/U: 52
Iowa
Team Expected Points: 28.75
QB – CJ Beathard – 6,300
Analysis: CJ Beathard had a fairly impressive debut for Iowa last week, passing for 211 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 26 yards on 8 attempts for 2 touchdowns. Beathard looked good leading a 99-yard drive and mixing in a few rushes with the pass. He will be in a close game this weekend, and there should be some opportunities to show his rushing ability.
Recommendation: Beathard has some upside and is priced in a favorable tier this week. We think he is a good value play at quarterback and should be pretty low-owned, making for a great tournament option.
WR – Tevaun Smith – 4,600
Analysis: Senior split end receiver Tevaun Smith has put up consistent numbers for the Hawkeyes, but never really busted out with any huge games. He put up a lackluster performance last week with only 3 catches for 24 yards, but he usually is one of the favorite targets in this offense.
Recommendation: Tevaun Smith is being mentioned here due to his relatively affordable price and expected low ownership expected, making for a playable stack with CJ Beathard in tournament formats.
Iowa State
Team Expected Points: 23.75
WR – Allen Lazard – 4,600
Analysis: Allen Lazard had a mediocre showing last week with 4 receptions for 43 yards and a touchdown. To his credit though, Lazard was targeted and missed a couple times in the red zone before getting his 13-yard touchdown pass. Lazard is a huge target at 6’5, and he should be a go-to option in what Vegas thinks will be a close contest this week. However, Lazard faces a very tough Iowa secondary that only allowed 175.8 passing yards per game last season, good for 8th in FBS.
Recommendation: Lazard is priced reasonably at 4,600 this week, but he is in a tough matchup against Iowa. While Iowa State may be relying heavily on the pass due to their inept rushing attack, we think Lazard may struggle—thus relegating him to a secondary play only.
