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Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 12-05-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 9 (18 teams)
Texas at Baylor
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Baylor -20.5
O/U: 68.5
Texas
Team Expected Points: 23.5
Texas is a tough team to trust on offense. Their quarterback situation is in the air right now with QB Jerrod Heard (4,500) recovering from a concussion. QB Tyrone Swoopes (7,500) would play should Heard miss, but he is not a guy we can trust for any significant production. RB Johnathan Gray (4,500) missed last week with a foot injury and is still considered questionable going into this weekend. In Gray’s absence last week, we saw freshman RB Chris Warren III (8,200) erupt for 276 yards and 4 touchdowns from his 25 carries. After that performance, even if Gray is healthy, we expect to see the freshman Warren involved in the run-heavy Texas offense.
Recommendation: Chris Warren’s salary has been massively adjusted due to what could have been his one-hit wonder against the horrible Texas Tech defense last week. Warren is too pricey to seriously consider in cash games, but he does remain a tournament option in case he pulls a repeat this week. If Johnathan Gray suits up, he should also be in play at minimum price.
Baylor
Team Expected Points: 44
QB – Chris Johnson – 7,200
Analysis: There is no doubt that Chris Johnson’s stats last week were absolutely atrocious as he failed to complete 30% of his passes for only 62 yards with 1 interception and 3 fumbles. However, if you watched that game, you clearly would have seen the monsoon he was playing through. In the short time we had to evaluate Johnson in normal conditions against Oklahoma State, he was spectacular as he threw for 2 touchdowns and rushed for another. The Texas defense is very bad, so Johnson should be primed for a bounce back this week along with plenty of playing time since Baylor is fairly thin at guys to replace him with by now.
Recommendation: Johnson’s price is depressed after last week, so given the upside he has from leading this offense in such a good matchup, he has to be in consideration in all formats.
RB – Devin Chafin – 6,300
Analysis: Baylor is a 3-touchdown favorite in this game facing the Texas defense ranked 108th in the country. We have seen most the high powered offenses of the Big 12 absolutely dominate Texas this season, including 50 points from TCU and 48 points from Texas Tech last week. Devin Chafin has come onto the scene strong since Shock Linwood has been dealing with his banged up knee in recent weeks. Chafin carried a season-high 26 times for another season-high of 119 yards last week against TCU. Baylor should be comfortably ahead in most of this game, causing them to likely rest Linwood once the lead is established. Chafin has now scored 6 touchdowns in his last 3 games, and with Linwood still banged up, we see Chafin taking up a large share of carries yet again.
Recommendation: We would highly recommend Chafin in all formats, particularly cash games as his ownership should be relatively high.
WR – Corey Coleman – 6,800, KD Cannon – 4,500
Analysis: If you saw Corey Coleman at this salary 4 weeks ago, you likely would have had to blink a few times before you believed it. His last 3 games however have been very uncharacteristic as Coleman has bene held out of the end zone in each of them, amassing only 9 receptions for 136 yards. Their last outing is a wash, literally. We will definitely expect a serious bounce-back against the subpar Texas secondary this week. We see some nice potential in KD Cannon this week as well. Chris Johnson’s second touchdown pass of his college career was the 71-yard bomb to Cannon 2 weeks ago, a game in which Cannon caught 5 balls for 210 yards and 2 touchdowns. Cannon has definitely been inconsistent this year, but he has had solid production since Russel’s injury, making him a sneaky option to get into the end zone this week with defenses focusing more on Coleman.
Recommendation: Even though Coleman has not caught a touchdown pass yet from Chris Johnson, we have to expect him to receive a heavy workload. He is pricey, but we wouldn’t mind him in tournament or cash games. From a value perspective, KD Cannon is an excellent play as he comes in at the minimum price.
Temple at Houston
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Houston -7
O/U: 57.5
Temple
Team Expected Points: 24.3
WR – Robby Anderson – 5,000
Analysis: Robby Anderson has been the top option for Temple’s passing game all season. Anderson has put up consistent yet subdued numbers in his recent games, amassing at least 4 receptions in each of his last 4 games while averaging around 70 yards per game. Touchdowns do not come often, but when they do, Anderson can easily pay off his salary. His solid matchup against Houston’s 108th ranked secondary makes Anderson a decent play at his price.
Recommendation: Anderson is a punt option to consider due to a favorable matchup and consistent usage in Temple’s offense.
Houston
Team Expected Points: 30.25
QB - Greg Ward Jr. – 9,400
Analysis: Greg Ward Jr. finally returned to his usual self last week against Navy as he posted big fantasy numbers once again. Ward passed for over 300 yards for the first time as he finished with 3 touchdowns and a 74.3% completion rate. Ward added 83 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown to top off a spectacular game. This week however, Ward faces an extremely difficult challenge with Temple’s 18th ranked defense. We expect temple to slow the game down quite a bit, making Ward a less attractive option than usual.
Recommendation: Given Ward’s matchup and consistent salary level, we would tend to avoid him as his production may not live up to the salary. There are other options far below him in price who we would feel more comfortable with in a cash game scenario.
Southern Mississippi at Western Kentucky
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: WKU -8
O/U: 74
Southern Mississippi
Team Expected Points: 33.5
QB – Nick Mullens – 7,800
Analysis: This game has one of the highest totals on the board, with right around a touchdown separating two top 10 ranked offenses as they take the field in the Conference USA Championship Game. You may not have heard much about Nick Mullens this year as Southern Mississippi has rarely appeared on a DFS slate, but he has statistically been one the best quarterbacks in the league ranked 6th in both passing yards and passing touchdowns 3964 and 35. His competition has certainly been subpar, but we have seen very consistent numbers as Mullens has 7 games with at least 3 touchdowns while failing to eclipse 300 yards only 3 times. Western Kentucky’s defense is average, but they have been much worse against the pass than the run allowing an average of 239 passing yards per game. This is the most dynamic passing attack the Hilltoppers will have faced this season, so we look for Mullens to have a big game in what should be a shootout.
Recommendation: Mullens comes in at a very attractive price and is one of our top value quarterback plays on the slate. He has appeal in both cash and tournament formats.
WR – Mike Thomas – 6,800, Casey Martin – 5,100
Analysis: Mike Thomas has put up very impressive numbers this season as he has 1,111 receiving yards on 56 receptions for 11 touchdowns. Thomas has at least 80 receiving yards in each of his last 9 games, with at least 1 touchdown in each of his last 8 games. Thomas has exceeded 100 yards twice in that 9-game stretch. Casey Martin is another option who has more value from his volume usage rather than big yardage and touchdown upside. Martin leads the team with 72 receptions—that is 16 more than Thomas. However, Martin’s yardage total is only 819 on the year with 7 touchdowns compared to Thomas’ 11.
Recommendation: We like the value in Mike Thomas here. He has been extremely consistent all season, so we cannot fault a cash game play or tournament stack with Mullens. Casey Martin is also an option as his salary is substantially lower than that of Thomas. However, since receptions are not nearly as valuable on FanDuel, we still would prefer Thomas as you shouldn’t need to save the salary on this slate.
Western Kentucky
Team Expected Points: 41
QB – Brandon Doughty – 9,500
Analysis: We don’t need to tell you what Brandon Doughty has done this season. He is clearly one of the highest potential quarterbacks on the slate. While Southern Mississippi’s defense looks great on paper, they have not faced an offense like that of Western Kentucky’s this season. Do not let their 33rd ranked defense scare you away from this matchup, as Doughty should have a solid floor of 300 passing yards and a couple touchdowns.
Recommendation: Doughty is pricey, but with this O/U in his conference championship game, we expect him to have a big game and pay it off. Doughty is a solid cash game play and worth consideration in tournaments, however his ownership should be relatively high.
RB – Anthony Wales – 8,600
Analysis: Since taking on a larger role in this offense in week 6, Anthony Wales has averaged 18 carries and 132 yards per game, with only 1 of those 7 games below 100 yards. Wales has also contributed in the passing game with 15 receptions for 123 yards during that stretch. While D’Andre Ferby is still involved in the offense, Wales is the clear starting back as he has gotten almost 3 times as many carries as Ferby in recent weeks. The one downside to Wales has to be his ability to find the end zone. While he has scored 7 rushing touchdowns in in the past 7 games, all of those came from only 3 games, one of which was a 4-touchdown explosion against Old Dominion. He has added 2 more touchdowns through the air, but has still been kept out of the end zone completely in 3 of his last 7 games. The Southern Mississippi offense is not one that the Hilltoppers will want to take lightly, so we should expect to see 20+ carry upside from Wales as they try to sustain drives and maintain a lead in this game.
Recommendation: Wales is priced at the top of the second tier behind Henry on this slate. While he is a good bet for 100+ yards, he needs multiple touchdowns to pay off that salary. On this slate, we can find value in other options for your cash games. However, if you have no Doughty or Hilltoppers receivers in a lineup, Wales becomes a viable play for exposure.
WR – Taywan Taylor – 6,900
Analysis: Taylor is one of the more obvious receiving targets on this slate as he is the #1 option in one of the most potent offenses on the slate. Taylor has found the end zone in each of his last 3 games, and has only missed the end zone in 2 games all season. He is averaging right at 100 yards per game with the 2nd most receiving touchdowns of any player in football at 15 on the season.
Recommendation: Taylor is always in consideration in all formats, with this week being no exception as his price seems too low to us in this slate.
TE - Tyler Higbee – 4,700
Analysis: Prior to injury causing Tyler Higbee to miss 4 games, Higbee had scored in 5 of his first 7 games with at least 50 yards and 2 receptions in every game he was healthy. Higbee returned to action and last week and picked right back up where he left off with 6 receptions for 92 yards and 2 touchdowns. He should again be heavily involved in this offensive attack.
Recommendation: Higbee is the top priced tight end on the slate, and rightfully so as he is the clear top option. He has a solid shot at hitting value and should be the highest owned tight end in all contests.
Georgia State at Georgia Southern
Kickoff: 2:00PM EST
Spread: Georgia Southern -21
O/U: 58.5
Georgia State
Team Expected Points: 18.8
QB – Nick Arbuckle – 8,400
Analysis: Georgia State has a tough fantasy matchup here facing Georgia Southern’s run heavy offense. Because of this extremely low tempo, Georgia Southern is holding opponents to only 323 yards and 22.3 points per game, ranking them as the 13th best defense in the country on paper. Nick Arbuckle however has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in the country if evaluated without looking at his subpar schedule. Arbuckle has only thrown less than 299 yards in a game once this season and has 8 multi-touchdown games as he has accounted for 3814 passing yards and 23 touchdowns on the season in addition to 6 rushing touchdowns.
Recommendation: Arbuckle has some sneaky potential here, as Georgia State has to pass the ball to win due to the complete lack of a run game. He has some risk due to the matchup and relatively steep price, but Arbuckle should be a very low owned option as he grades out as one of our top projected quarterbacks on the slate. We would recommend mostly tournament exposure as he isn’t safe enough for cash games.
TE – Keith Rucker – 4,300
Analysis: Rucker is one of the top tight end options this week, right here with Tyler Higbee of Western Kentucky. Rucker showed us his huge potential last week hauling in 10 receptions for 154 yards. These numbers are unheard of for a tight end, and definitely career and season highs for Rucker as he did not have more than 61 yards in a game previous to this. Rucker now has 474 yards and 5 touchdowns on the season, and after last week he is certainly in play if you need to trade down from Higbee.
Recommendation: While Higbee is definitely the safer play, Rucker should be lower owned and make for a nice pivot option with plenty of upside for tournament lineups.
Georgia Southern
Team Expected Points: 39.75
RB – Matt Breida – 7,700
Analysis: Georgia Southern touts the best rushing offense in the FBS for the second year in a row as they have amassed over 375 rushing yards per game. Their lead running back Matt Breida ranks 9th in the FBS with 1495 yards and 16 touchdowns on only 180 attempts. Breida’s 8.3 yards per attempt ranks him highest among any other rusher with at least 710 rushing yards this season. He has 7 games with over 135 rushing yards and 6 games with at least 2 touchdowns. However, Breida also has 4 games in which he couldn’t exceed 85 rushing yards and is very rarely used in the passing game. Breida is the clear workhorse of this offense, but considering how focused they are on running the ball, opportunities can certainly be spread out as we have seen by the other 6 players who have scored the other 30 of Georgia Southern’s 46 rushing touchdowns this season.
Recommendation: Breida is a high ceiling play who we would opt more so for in tournament formats due to his boom or bust nature.
Texas State at Arkansas State
Kickoff: 3:00PM EST
Spread: Arkansas State -25.5
O/U: 69.5
Texas State
Team Expected Points: 22.3
The Texas State offense has struggled this season, and we really have not found a consistent break-out fantasy performer to nail down from it. RB Robert Lowe (6,700) had been the starter all season, but he is now questionable to play this week due to a toe injury. In Lowe’s absence last week, we saw RB Tyler Siudzinski (6,700) rush for 170 yards on 24 carries along with 19 receiving yards from 2 receptions. This was a very nice performance, but tough to evaluate since he rushed 10 times for only 28 yards in his previous appearance. We do not trust any of these options and would in all likelihood avoid it.
Arkansas State
Team Expected Points: 47.25
QB – Fredi Knighten – 9,100
Analysis: Fredi Knighten has been a solid quarterback option when healthy this season. His dual threat ability including the ability to throw the ball downfield and use his legs on key plays makes for a dangerous combination. In Knighten’s 6 games since returning from injury, he has completed a pass of at least 35 yards in each of his games while rushing for t least 22 yards on a single play in 4 of those 6 games. Knighten’s passing yardage total has increase consecutively in each of his last 3 games, including a season high 367 yards thought the air last week against New Mexico State. Knighten could not have found a better time to hit his stride, as Texas State has one of the worst defenses in the FBS ranked 124th overall. They allow over 270 passing yards, 250 rushing yards, and 37.7 points per game. Vegas has a high O/U here with Arkansas State heavily favorited, so we expect to see plenty of Knighten in this contest.
Recommendation: Knighten is a solid play in all formats as he is in the best matchup of any quarterback on the slate. A pairing with top WR Tres Houston (7,200) could certainly pay dividends in tournament formats as well.
New Mexico State at Louisiana-Monroe
Kickoff: 3:00PM EST
Spread: NMSU -2
O/U: 59
New Mexico State
Team Expected Points: 30.5
RB - Larry Rose III - 7,400
Analysis: Larry Rose III has been on absolute fire as of late. Rose had rushed for over 180 yards in 4 consecutive games leading up to last week. Rose has accounted for a total of 1059 yards in only his last 5 games, including 8 touchdowns and 13 receptions on that stretch. Rose has been the focal point of the Aggies offense all season as he is involved on the ground and through the air, making him a very attractive fantasy option. By the way, if his stats were not enough, his matchup may be even better as Louisiana Monroe touts the nation's 114th ranked rushing defense allowing 217.9 rushing yards per game.
Recommendation: At 7,400, you wil be paying up for Rose. However in this matchup and with his recent success, Rose is a very solid play and one of my top options at the position.
Louisiana Monroe
Team Expected Points: 28.5
WR - Marcus Green - 5,100
Analysis: The Louisiana Monroe offense is terrible, ranked only 5th from last in the country as they can only manage 312 yards per game and 19.3 points per game. Despite their ineffectiveness though, The New Mexico State defense is not much better as they are allowing the 2nd most yards per game of any other team in the country. The go-to target through the passing game for Louisiana Monroe is Marcus Green. Last week, we saw Green post his 2nd 12-receptions game of the year as he finished with 12 catches for 103 yards against Hawaii. Green may not be a touchdown machine as he only has 5 on the season, but he is a solid receiver play this week as he has a good shot at a high volume of work against this atrocious defense.
Recommendation: At this price, Marcus Green is one of our favorite plays of the day to plug into your lineups for some salary relief.
FLORIDA VS ALABAMA (NEUTRAL SITE – ATLANTA, GA)
Kickoff: 4:00PM EST
Spread: Alabama -17.5
O/U: 40
Florida
Team Expected Points: 11
The Florida offense is too bad to even consider against the Alabama defense. Florida may not even score a single touchdown on offense in this matchup—you definitely have to avoid them.
Alabama
Team Expected Points: 29
RB – Travis Henry – 10,000
Analysis: With this O/U hovering right around 40 points, it is very difficult to seriously consider anyone on from either team here. However, Travis Henry has been absolutely unstoppable in his record-breaking year season. While Henry is definitely pricey in this tough matchup against Florida’s elite defense, his ceiling remains just as high as any other running back on the slate.
Recommendation: The pricing on this slate for players outside of Henry is actually very soft, so you may be able to fit Henry into a few of your lineups. The matchup is tough, but Henry still remains a solid option in any contest if you can legitimately fit him in without sacrificing too much at other positions.
WR – Calvin Ridley – 4,900
Analysis: Ridley is Alabama’s top receiving option, and while he has a very difficult matchup, he has been good for very consistent production throughout SEC play this season with no less than 5 receptions and 50 yards in Alabama’s last 7 games.
Recommendation: Ridley is priced near minimum, and given his high floor exhibited thus far in the season, he will be a viable option for your cash games.
West Virginia at Kansas State
Kickoff: 4:30PM EST
Spread: West Virginia -6.5
O/U: 58
West Virginia
Team Expected Points: 31.5
QB – Skyler Howard – 7,900
Analysis: Skyler Howard leads a West Virginia team that has been playing very well in recent weeks. Since dropping 4 straight at the start of Big 12 play, West Virginia has won its last 4 games outscoring opponents 148 to 52. Part of this success could be attributed to a shift in focus to the rushing attack versus Howard chucking the ball up. In their first 8 games, Howard averaged 32 pass attempts per game. In their last 4 outings, Howard is averaging right under 21 attempts per game with far fewer passing yards as he has only eclipsed 200 yards once during that stretch. Howard has scored a rushing touchdown in each of his last 4, and his matchup is solid against Kansas State’s 119th ranked passing defense, so upside certainly exists—however West Virginia’s lack of focus on the passing attack must certainly be factored into that upside as a damper on Howard’s ceiling.
Recommendation: Howard is fairly priced and has a very solid matchup. Given his ability to move the ball on the ground and find the end zone with his legs, Howard has enough potential to be a fringe cash game option. West Virginia’s overall focus on the rushing attack will limit Howard’s ceiling however, making him tough to roster in tournament formats.
RB – Wendell Smallwood – 6,600
Analysis: As you read above in Howard’s analysis, West Virginia has shifted heavily to a more run-focused offense in recent weeks with Wendell Smallwood leading the charge as their #1 back. Smallwood has been relied upon heavily all season as he has carried 200 times for 1306 yards and 8 touchdowns. Smallwood has eclipsed 110 yards in all but 4 games this season and caught at least 1 pass in every game he has played in (exactly 1 pass in each of his last 5 games). While Kansas State is much more forgiving against the pass than they are the run, we do not expect that to affect the Mountaineers’ game plan since they have found a winning approach in relying on the run lately.
Recommendation: Smallwood is a high volume RB1 with just as much upside as any other back on the slate. His price is great here, making Smallwood in play for both cash and tournament lineups.
Kansas State
Team Expected Points: 26
The Kansas State offense has been nothing to write home about this season as they are ranked 107th overall. Their strength is definitely in their ground game, with QB Joe Hubener (5,700) leading the team in carries and rushing touchdowns (13) on the year. The matchup here is a tough one as the West Virginia defense has been very strong in recent weeks. They have allowed an average of only 13 points per game in their last 4 outings, including holding Texas Tech to a season-low 26 points. Aside from a punt of Hubener on a tournament roster, we are fading the Kansas State offense.
Troy at Louisiana Lafayette
Kickoff: 5:00PM EST
Spread: Louisiana Lafayette -2
O/U: 58
Troy
Team Expected Points: 28.5
The Troy Trojans do not have a very good offense at all, ranked 105th in the country in yards per game with only 352. The only potential play we see here is a GPP punt of QB Brandon Silvers (6,500). Silvers has passed for multiple touchdowns in 3 of his last 5 games, including a 4-TD game and a 5-TD game. We’ve seen the upside, and Louisiana Lafayette does have only a mediocre secondary.
Louisiana Lafayette
Team Expected Points: 30.5
While Louisiana Lafayette’s offense has been better overall than Troy’s, it is still one we would tend to avoid as they do not have much stand-out fantasy players to consider. The only option to call out would be RB Elijah McGuire (7,100), as he is close to a 1000-yard rusher and has 13 touchdowns on the season. We have seen some big games out of him this year, most notable his outing 2 weeks ago against New Mexico State where he ran for 159 yards and 2 touchdowns. McGuire would be a tournament option only, while nobody else on this offense is worth considering.