Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 12-05-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 9 (18 teams)
Texas at Baylor
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Baylor -20.5
O/U: 68.5
Texas
Team Expected Points: 44
Texas is a tough team to trust on offense. Their quarterback situation is in the air right now with QB Jerrod Heard (6,700) recovering from a concussion. QB Tyrone Swoopes (5800) would play should Heard miss, but he is not a guy we can trust for any significant production. RB Johnathan Gray (4,100) missed last week with a foot injury and is still considered questionable going into this weekend. In Gray’s absence last week, we saw freshman RB Chris Warren III (5,300) erupt for 276 yards and 4 touchdowns from his 25 carries. After that performance, even if Gray is healthy, we expect to see the freshman Warren involved in the run-heavy Texas offense.
Recommendation: The only play worth considering here is Chris Warren. He is mainly a tournament option as we only have a 1 game sample size from which to evaluate him, and the matchup is not nearly as great this week.
Baylor
Team Expected Points: 28.3
QB – Chris Johnson – 6,700
Analysis: There is no doubt that Chris Johnson’s stats last week were absolutely atrocious as he failed to complete 30% of his passes for only 62 yards with 1 interception and 3 fumbles. However, if you watched that game, you clearly would have seen the monsoon he was playing through. In the short time we had to evaluate Johnson in normal conditions against Oklahoma State, he was spectacular as he threw for 2 touchdowns and rushed for another. The Texas defense is very bad, so Johnson should be primed for a bounce back this week along with plenty of playing time since Baylor is fairly thin at guys to replace him with by now.
Recommendation: Johnson’s price is depressed after last week, so given the upside he has from leading this offense in such a good matchup, he has to be in consideration in all formats.
RB – Devin Chafin – 5,600
Analysis: Baylor is a 3-touchdown favorite in this game facing the Texas defense ranked 108th in the country. We have seen most the high powered offenses of the Big 12 absolutely dominate Texas this season, including 50 points from TCU and 48 points from Texas Tech last week. Devin Chafin has come onto the scene strong since Shock Linwood has been dealing with his banged up knee in recent weeks. Chafin carried a season-high 26 times for another season-high of 119 yards last week against TCU. Baylor should be comfortably ahead in most of this game, causing them to likely rest Linwood once the lead is established. Chafin has now scored 6 touchdowns in his last 3 games, and with Linwood still banged up, we see Chafin taking up a large share of carries yet again.
Recommendation: We would highly recommend Chafin in all formats, particularly cash games as his ownership should be relatively high.
WR – Corey Coleman – 6,400, KD Cannon – 5,200
Analysis: If you saw Corey Coleman at this salary 4 weeks ago, you likely would have had to blink a few times before you believed it. His last 3 games however have been very uncharacteristic as Coleman has bene held out of the end zone in each of them, amassing only 9 receptions for 136 yards. Their last outing is a wash, literally. We will definitely expect a serious bounce-back against the subpar Texas secondary this week. We see some nice potential in KD Cannon this week as well. Chris Johnson’s second touchdown pass of his college career was the 71-yard bomb to Cannon 2 weeks ago, a game in which Cannon caught 5 balls for 210 yards and 2 touchdowns. Cannon has definitely been inconsistent this year, but he has had solid production since Russel’s injury, making him a sneaky option to get into the end zone this week with defenses focusing more on Coleman.
Recommendation: Even though Coleman has not caught a touchdown pass yet from Chris Johnson, we have to expect him to receive a heavy workload. He is pricey, but we wouldn’t mind him in tournament or cash games. From a value perspective, KD Cannon would be our preferred option in your tournament rosters as his ownership should be much lower and he has excellent big play potential.
Temple at Houston
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Houston -7
O/U: 57.5
Temple
Team Expected Points: 24.3
WR – Robby Anderson – 4,500
Analysis: Robby Anderson has been the top option for Temple’s passing game all season. Anderson has put up consistent yet subdued numbers in his recent games, amassing at least 4 receptions in each of his last 4 games while averaging around 70 yards per game. Touchdowns do not come often, but when they do, Anderson can easily pay off his salary. His solid matchup against Houston’s 108th ranked secondary makes Anderson a decent play at his price.
Recommendation: Anderson is a punt option to consider due to a favorable matchup and consistent usage in Temple’s offense.
Houston
Team Expected Points: 30.25
QB - Greg Ward Jr. – 7,900
Analysis: Greg Ward Jr. finally returned to his usual self last week against Navy as he posted big fantasy numbers once again. Ward passed for over 300 yards for the first time as he finished with 3 touchdowns and a 74.3% completion rate. Ward added 83 rushing yards and a rushing touchdown to top off a spectacular game. This week however, Ward faces an extremely difficult challenge with Temple’s 18th ranked defense. We expect temple to slow the game down quite a bit, making Ward a less attractive option than usual.
Recommendation: Given Ward’s matchup and consistent salary level, we would tend to avoid him as his production may not live up to the salary. There are other options near him in price who we would feel more comfortable with in a cash game scenario.
Southern Mississippi at Western Kentucky
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: WKU -8
O/U: 74
Southern Mississippi
Team Expected Points: 33.5
QB – Nick Mullens – 7,300
Analysis: This game has one of the highest totals on the board, with right around a touchdown separating two top 10 ranked offenses as they take the field in the Conference USA Championship Game. You may not have heard much about Nick Mullens this year as Southern Mississippi has rarely appeared on a DFS slate, but he has statistically been one the best quarterbacks in the league ranked 6th in both passing yards and passing touchdowns 3964 and 35. His competition has certainly been subpar, but we have seen very consistent numbers as Mullens has 7 games with at least 3 touchdowns while failing to eclipse 300 yards only 3 times. Western Kentucky’s defense is average, but they have been much worse against the pass than the run allowing an average of 239 passing yards per game. This is the most dynamic passing attack the Hilltoppers will have faced this season, so we look for Mullens to have a big game in what should be a shootout.
Recommendation: Mullens comes in at a very attractive price and is one of our top value quarterback plays on the slate. He has appeal in both cash and tournament formats.
WR – Mike Thomas – 5,700, Casey Martin – 5,400
Analysis: Mike Thomas has put up very impressive numbers this season as he has 1,111 receiving yards on 56 receptions for 11 touchdowns. Thomas has at least 80 receiving yards in each of his last 9 games, with at least 1 touchdown in each of his last 8 games. Thomas has exceeded 100 yards twice in that 9-game stretch. Casey Martin is another option who has more value from his volume usage rather than big yardage and touchdown upside. Martin leads the team with 72 receptions—that is 16 more than Thomas. However, Martin’s yardage total is only 819 on the year with 7 touchdowns compared to Thomas’ 11.
Recommendation: We like the value in Mike Thomas here. He has been extremely consistent all season, so we cannot fault a cash game play or tournament stack with Mullens. Casey Martin is also an option due to his receptions, however we would still prefer Thomas as their salaries are so close and Thomas clearly has the higher ceiling.
Western Kentucky
Team Expected Points: 41
QB – Brandon Doughty – 8,400
Analysis: We don’t need to tell you what Brandon Doughty has done this season. He is clearly one of the highest potential quarterbacks on the slate. While Southern Mississippi’s defense looks great on paper, they have not faced an offense like that of Western Kentucky’s this season. Do not let their 33rd ranked defense scare you away from this matchup, as Doughty should have a solid floor of 300 passing yards and a couple touchdowns.
Recommendation: Doughty is pricey, but with this O/U in his conference championship game, we expect him to have a big game and pay it off. Doughty is a solid cash game play and worth consideration in tournaments, however his ownership should be relatively high.
RB – Anthony Wales – 6,800
Analysis: Since taking on a larger role in this offense in week 6, Anthony Wales has averaged 18 carries and 132 yards per game, with only 1 of those 7 games below 100 yards. Wales has also contributed in the passing game with 15 receptions for 123 yards during that stretch. While D’Andre Ferby is still involved in the offense, Wales is the clear starting back as he has gotten almost 3 times as many carries as Ferby in recent weeks. The one downside to Wales has to be his ability to find the end zone. While he has scored 7 rushing touchdowns in in the past 7 games, all of those came from only 3 games, one of which was a 4-touchdown explosion against Old Dominion. He has added 2 more touchdowns through the air, but has still been kept out of the end zone completely in 3 of his last 7 games. The Southern Mississippi offense is not one that the Hilltoppers will want to take lightly, so we should expect to see 20+ carry upside from Wales as they try to sustain drives and maintain a lead in this game.
Recommendation: Wales is priced in the upper middle tier here. His value comes primarily from the amount of points we expect to be scored in this game, as he is a good bet for 100+ yards but really needs that touchdown to have a shot at hitting value targets for a cash or tournament roster.
WR – Taywan Taylor – 5,900, Tyler Higbee – 4,700
Analysis: Taylor is one of the more obvious receiving targets on this slate as he is the #1 option in one of the most potent offenses on the slate. Taylor has found the end zone in each of his last 3 games, and has only missed the end zone in 2 games all season. He is averaging right at 100 yards per game with the 2nd most receiving touchdowns of any player in football at 15 on the season. Another option here is the tight end Tyler Higbee. Prior to injury causing him to miss 4 games, Higbee had scored in 5 of his first 7 games with at least 50 yards and 2 receptions in every game he was healthy. Higbee returned to action and last week and picked right back up where he left off with 6 receptions for 92 yards and 2 touchdowns. He should again be heavily involved in this offensive attack.
Recommendation: Taylor is always in consideration in all formats, with this week being no exception as his price is very fair. Higbee is priced way down due in part to his tight end classification. He should definitely put up wide receiver numbers here as Higbee has an excellent chance to hit and exceed value as a play in all formats to save you some salary.
Florida vs Alabama (Neutral Site – Atlanta, GA)
Kickoff: 4:00PM EST
Spread: Alabama -17.5
O/U: 40
Florida
Team Expected Points: 18
The Florida offense is too bad to even consider against the Alabama defense. Florida may not even score a single touchdown on offense in this matchup—you definitely have to avoid them.
Alabama
Team Expected Points: 29
RB – Travis Henry – 8,500
Analysis: With this O/U hovering right around 40 points, it is very difficult to seriously consider anyone on from either team here. However, Travis Henry has been absolutely unstoppable in his record-breaking year season. While Henry is definitely pricey in this tough matchup against Florida’s elite defense, his ceiling remains just as high as any other running back on the slate.
Recommendation: We would tend to stray away from Henry in cash games due to the matchup and price, but he is a very solid tournament option.
West Virginia at Kansas State
Kickoff: 4:30PM EST
Spread: West Virginia -6.5
O/U: 58
West Virginia
Team Expected Points: 31.5
QB – Skyler Howard – 6,300
Analysis: Skyler Howard leads a West Virginia team that has been playing very well in recent weeks. Since dropping 4 straight at the start of Big 12 play, West Virginia has won its last 4 games outscoring opponents 148 to 52. Part of this success could be attributed to a shift in focus to the rushing attack versus Howard chucking the ball up. In their first 8 games, Howard averaged 32 pass attempts per game. In their last 4 outings, Howard is averaging right under 21 attempts per game with far fewer passing yards as he has only eclipsed 200 yards once during that stretch. Howard has scored a rushing touchdown in each of his last 4, and his matchup is solid against Kansas State’s 119th ranked passing defense, so upside certainly exists—however West Virginia’s lack of focus on the passing attack must certainly be factored into that upside as a damper on Howard’s ceiling.
Recommendation: Howard is cheap and has a very solid matchup. Given his ability to move the ball on the ground and find the end zone with his legs, Howard has enough potential to be a cash game option. West Virginia’s overall focus on the rushing attack will limit Howard’s ceiling however, making him tough to roster in tournament formats.
RB – Wendell Smallwood – 5,900
Analysis: As you read above in Howard’s analysis, West Virginia has shifted heavily to a more run-focused offense in recent weeks with Wendell Smallwood leading the charge as their #1 back. Smallwood has been relied upon heavily all season as he has carried 200 times for 1306 yards and 8 touchdowns. Smallwood has eclipsed 110 yards in all but 4 games this season and caught at least 1 pass in every game he has played in (exactly 1 pass in each of his last 5 games). While Kansas State is much more forgiving against the pass than they are the run, we do not expect that to affect the Mountaineers’ game plan since they have found a winning approach in relying on the run lately.
Recommendation: Smallwood is a high volume RB1 with just as much upside as any other back on the slate. He is in play in both cash and tournament lineups.
Kansas State
Team Expected Points: 26
The Kansas State offense has been nothing to write home about this season as they are ranked 107th overall. Their strength is definitely in their ground game, with QB Joe Hubener (5,700) leading the team in carries and rushing touchdowns (13) on the year. The matchup here is a tough one as the West Virginia defense has been very strong in recent weeks. They have allowed an average of only 13 points per game in their last 4 outings, including holding Texas Tech to a season-low 26 points. Aside from a punt of Hubener as your QB2 on a tournament roster, we are fading the Kansas State offense.
Air Force at San Diego State
Kickoff: 7:30PM EST
Spread: SDSU -4
O/U: 50.5
Air Force
Team Expected Points: 23.3
This game contains 2 of the nation’s top 20 ranked defenses as Air Force (18th) takes on San Diego State (5th). Let’s not get too excited about the defense here however, as this ranking on paper is tough to justify considering the strength of opponents in the Mountain West. While the O/U is not rock bottom, it still is relatively low for this slate at only around 50 points. Air Force relies heavily on their rushing attack, ranking 3rd in the country with 323 rushing yards per game. However, this production has come from a variety of options as 8 players have over 300 rushing yards each. RB Jacobi Owens (4,600) is typically their lead back, but his recent inconsistency makes him a tough target to spend your money on. We will be avoiding Air Force due to the unpredictability of who will stand out in their offense.
San Diego State
Team Expected Points: 28.25
RB – Donnel Pumphrey – 8,100
Analysis: This should be a very low tempo matchup as San Diego State also focuses heavily on running the football, ranking 15th in the country with 235 rushing yards per game. San Diego State employs workhorse running back Donnel Pumphrey is the focal point of their offense as he has rushed for nearly 1500 yards and caught 25 passes for just over 300 receiving yards this season. Pumphrey has rushed for at least 120 yards in 8 straight games with 5 multi-touchdown games during that stretch. He definitely has upside based on the workload and red zone usage, but the slow pace of this game has us worried about his final production.
Recommendation: Pumphrey is one of the elite backs in the league. With his touchdown upside and ability to catch passes, Pumphrey is certainly in play for tournament formats. However, his price combined with low tempo game expected here will make us limit our shares in cash game rosters.
Stanford at USC (Neutral Site – Santa Clara, CA)
Kickoff: 7:45PM EST
Spread: Stanford -4.5
O/U: 60
Stanford
Team Expected Points: 31.3
RB – Christian McCaffrey – 8,000
Analysis: In McCaffrey’s first outing against USC earlier this season, he carried 26 times for 115 yards in addition to 3 receptions for 37 yards. McCaffrey has been held to less than 100 yards on only 3 occasions this year as he leads the league by a landslide with over 3000 all-purpose yards. While around 900 of those yards come from kickoff duty, 435 of them come from his 37 receptions. The thorn in McCaffrey’s side however has been power back Remound Wright, as it is almost like clockwork that McCaffrey is removed from the game in favor of Wright in near-goal line scenarios. Wright has almost twice as many rushing touchdowns as McCaffrey on the season, making McCaffrey’s fantasy ceiling much lower than it otherwise would be if he was getting those opportunities.
Recommendation: McCaffrey is in a less than favorable matchup against a USC defense allowing only 137.6 rushing yards per game. While he should be safe to eclipse 100 yards, we are not comfortable that McCaffrey has the upside to pay off in tournament formats. He is playable in cash games due to his reception upside, but at this price, our exposure will be limited.
USC
Team Expected Points: 27
WR - Juju Smith-Schuster – 7,000
Analysis: Smith-Schuster has been going through quite the rough patch lately as he has failed to exceed 100 yards in each of his last 3 games with only 1 touchdown during that stretch. Despite his recent lackluster, Smith-Schuster continues to be USC’s top receiving option and one of the best receivers in the country with 1302 receiving yards (7th in FBS). This game has a decent O/U around 60, and USC should be forced to pass as they are slight underdogs to Stanford. The Stanford defense is good, but they are not elite as we have seen in the past. Smith-Schuster posted his 2nd best stat line of the year earlier in the season against Stanford as he caught 8 passes for 153 yards and a touchdown.
Recommendation: Smith-Schuster is priced at the top on this slate, but 6,400 is certainly an affordable price to pay considering the salaries we have seen him at earlier in the season. Smith-Schuster had a ton of success in his last outing against Stanford, so we have to believe a repeat could be in order. Smith-Schuster projects out as a solid play and is a viable option in all formats.
North Carolina at Clemson (Neutral Site – Charlotte, NC)
Kickoff: 8:00PM EST
Spread: Clemson -5
O/U: 67
North Carolina
Team Expected Points: 31.5
QB – Marquise Williams – 8,300
Analysis: This game is expected to be a relatively high scoring affair as Vegas has it pinned as one of the higher O/U’s on this slate at 67. The North Carolina offense has been stunning this year, averaging 41.3 points per game (11th in FBS) on top of an outstanding 7.46 yards per play, 2nd only to Baylor at 7.47. Marquise Williams is the center of their offensive attack, having accounted for 28 of their 61 touchdowns on the year, including 10 rushing touchdowns. Williams has put up some big fantasy scores this season, including 3 100+ yard rushing games and at least 1 rushing touchdown in 7 of his 12 games. He faces one of the nation’s top ranked defenses in Clemson. The Tigers are holding opposing quarterbacks to a league 4th lowest 160.8 passing yards per game. Clemson’s defense has started to show some weakness as they are allowing 25.2 points per game in their last 5 games along with 33.3 points per game in their last 3 outings away from home.
Recommendation: Williams has a huge point ceiling, making him a very viable tournament play. He has shown some inconsistency this year though, and with the stout matchup, we would rather spend elsewhere on a quarterback with a higher floor in cash games.
RB – Elijah Hood – 6,900
Analysis: This 6-foot sophomore has been a monster on the ground for the Tar Heels this season. Elijah Hood has rushed for 192 times for 1280 yards and 16 touchdowns. He has failed to find the end zone only 3 times this year and has crossed the century mark in yardage on 7 separate occasions. He has over 100 yards in each of his last 3 games, including his season’s best performance last week as he finished with 220 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. His matchup stinks against a tough defensive front, but Hood has a very solid shot at the end zone and 100+ yards here based on his usage in this fast paced, big-play oriented offense. His primary downside would be losing rushing opportunities to Marquise Williams, as the quarterback usually carries about 10 times per game.
Recommendation: Hood is a play worth considering more so in tournaments due to his tough matchup making it a risky play.
Clemson
Team Expected Points: 36
QB – Deshaun Watson – 8,600
Analysis: Deshaun Watson is the top priced quarterback on the slate and one of our highest projected scorers of the week. Watson should have plenty of ways to put up points this week even against North Carolina’s tough secondary allowing only 186.7 passing yards per game (19th in FBS). Not only does Watson have 5 consecutive games with 250+ passing yards and at least 1 passing touchdown, but he also has rushed for more than 100 yards in 3 of those 5 games with 6 rushing touchdowns. Watson has the ability to explode on either or both sides of the ball, as only one other player in the FBS has more games with both a passing and rushing touchdown. Watson is coming off his best rushing performance of the year last week with 114 yards and 3 touchdowns on 21 attempts against South Carolina, and he should find plenty of room to maneuver here through North Carolina’s weak run defense.
Recommendation: There will be plenty of points in this game, and Vegas expects most to come from Clemson. Watson is priced at the top, but he is a safe play with a high floor and ceiling. With some risky quarterback options on this slate, Watson is a very solid cash game quarterback to feel comfortable with.
RB – Wayne Gallman – 6,200
Analysis: While the Tar Heels have shown to have one of the better secondary’s in football this year, teams have been able to find yards on the ground almost at will against them as North Carolina gives up over 208 rushing yards per game (107th in FBS). This is music to the ears of Wayne Gallman, Clemson’s #1 running back averaging nearly 20 carries and 105 yards per game in the 11 games he played in this season. Gallman has 7 100+ yard games this season and had scored a touchdown in each of his last 4 games leading up to an injury he sustained 3 weeks ago. Gallman missed the game against Wake Forest and returned last week to rush for 102 yards against South Carolina. Gallman hasn’t really had an eye-popping performance this year though, as he only has 2 games with more than 1 touchdown and relatively subdued receiving numbers.
Recommendation: Gallman should be a safe cash game play if you are fading Watson, but we would avoid Gallman in a tournament situation due to his lack of multi-touchdown upside shown this season.
WR – Artavis Scott – 5,500, Deon Cain – 4,900
Analysis: Artavis Scott is the leading receiver for Clemson’s offense with more than twice as many receptions (77) as any other player on the team. Scott has definitely been more of a possession receiver this year though as he is only averaging 9.2 yards per catch—the lowest per catch average of any receiver in the FBS with over 450 yards. His touchdown numbers are very bad for a #1 wide out as Watson spreads the ball around in the red zone in addition to taking it in himself quite often. While Artavis Scott has struggled to find the end zone, it has been no problem at all for freshman receiver Deon Cain. Cain has really come alive in recent weeks as he has scored in 5 straight games. Cain had not scored a single touchdown in the first 7 weeks of the season, averaging just over 2 receptions and 43 yards per game. In his last 5 games, aside from catching a touchdown in each one, Cain has averaged almost 4 catches and 61.4 yards per game. He had his best fantasy game of the year last week, so we love the direction Cain is trending.
Recommendation: Both receivers for Clemson are limited to tournament options this week, with Deon Cain a strong favorite in out book due to his touchdown upside and Scott’s lack of big play upside.
Michigan State vs Iowa (Neutral Site – Indianapolis, IN)
Kickoff: 8:17PM EST
Spread: Michigan State -3.5
O/U: 51
Michigan State
Team Expected Points: 27.3
WR – Aaron Burbridge – 6,500
Analysis: The only way teams have found any success against Iowa this year has been to pass the ball, as the Hawkeyes are allowing only 110 yards per game on the ground but twice that at 221 yards per game through the air. Aaron Burbridge is one of the most talented receivers in the league and the absolute go-to option for the Spartans as he has more than double the receptions and yards of any other receiver. Burbridge ranks 13th in the country with 1158 total receiving yards, but he has been a relatively inconsistent fantasy contributor this season as the Spartan offense is not exactly the epitome of explosive. While Burbridge has 7 games over 100 yards and 6 games with at least 8 receptions, he also has turned in 3 games with 31 or fewer yards, 4 games with 4 or fewer receptions, and 7 games without a single touchdown.
Recommendation: As the highest priced receiver on the slate, we sure would like more consistency to feel comfortable playing him in our cash games. Burbridge is a great tournament option, but we would rather opt for Coleman or Smith-Schuster for usage in our cash game lineups at this top salary tier.
Iowa
Team Expected Points: 23.75
RB – Jordan Canzeri – 5,900
Analysis: Senior Jordan Canzeri has been a workhorse of a back this entire season as he leads Iota with 5 100+ yard games this season. If not for a high ankle sprain back in Week 8 that cost him basically 3 whole games and a limited role in another 2 games, Canzeri might be closer to the top of the FBS in rushing yards. In 5 games as the starter leading up to his injury, Canzeri was averaging over 25 carries and 133 yards per game in with 9 total touchdowns during that span, including a 7-reception game snuck in there. We saw Canzeri fully resume his starting role last week against a decent Nebraska run defense as he averaged a season-high 8.2 yards per carry for 140 yards and a touchdown. Michigan State has a stout run defense allowing only 118.2 rushing yards per game, but Canzeri should get 20+ carries as Iowa tries to control this ballgame and keep the Spartan offense off the field.
Recommendation: Canzeri is a risky play in this matchup, but his salary grades him out as a nice value considering the workload we expect him to get in Iowa’s run-focused offense. Canzeri should be a nice value in all formats.
