DraftKings CFB Week 13 Saturday Early Slate Breakdown

An in depth breakdown of the CFB Week 13 DraftKings Saturday Early slate.

Details:

  • Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 11-28-15, 12:00 PM EST
  • Number of games in slate: 15 (30 teams)

Cincinnati at East Carolina

Kickoff: 12:00PM EST

Spread: East Carolina -1

O/U: 67.5

Cincinnati

Team Expected Points: 33.25

QB – Gunner Kiel – 7,200

Analysis: Kiel has been one of the most explosive quarterbacks in football for the first 11 weeks of the season. However, last week against UCF we saw Kiel really struggle as he was benched half way through the game after passing for only 84 yards and 2 interceptions—by far the worst fantasy performance of his season. There is certainly some controversy around who will be under center, but we didn’t see much to look forward to in Hayden Moore either as he threw twice as many interceptions as Kiel did. Keep an eye on the news, but we think Kiel will get the start and has a much better matchup here against East Carolina in what should be a shootout.

Recommendation: As long as Kiel is starting, he makes for a solid quarterback in all formats as his price offers some much-needed relief.

WR – Shaq Washington – 5,900

Analysis: Shaq Washington has been the go-to guy for Cincinnati’s high flying offense all year as he leads the team with 73 receptions for 847 yards. He struggled through bad quarterback play last week, but he sees a better matchup here and should again be heavily relied upon in this game that should be back and forth.

Recommendation: Washington is a solid play in all formats, grading out as a great value in our projections.

East Carolina

Team Expected Points: 34.25

WR – Isaiah Jones – 6,300, Trevon Brown – 4,900

Analysis: Isaiah Jones is one of the highest volume wide receivers in the league, as he has been consistently relied upon by East Carolina all year. Jones just amassed 14 receptions for the second time this season in his last game, leading to 181 yards and 2 touchdowns for a monster fantasy score. Jones has 5 games with at least 10 receptions this season and is a very good candidate for a similar workload in this game that we expect to be high flying. Trevon Brown has been a secondary option in this receiving core, but he offers some slight salary relief and also could have a shot at getting into the end zone.

Recommendation: Jones is one of the top wide receiver plays on this slate—a great option in all formats. Brown should be limited to tournament use only as he is much more risky, but could see volume nonetheless.

Ohio State at Michigan

Kickoff: 12:00PM EST

Spread: EVEN

O/U: 45

This game has very little fantasy relevance with such a low O/U and dominant defensive teams, so we’d recommend sitting back and watching what should be one of the best games of the week.

Indiana at Purdue

Kickoff: 12:00PM EST

Spread: Indiana -7

O/U: 68.5

Indiana

Team Expected Points: 37.75

RB – Jordan Howard – 7,500, Devine Redding – 4,900

Analysis: This game features a couple of defenses each ranked in the bottom 100 and allowing over 35 yards per game. Needless to say, we expect significant offensive production here with a number of options in play. Jordan Howard may be a solid option, but he absolutely crushed the dreams of many DFS enthusiasts last week as he suffered a knee injury after only 3 carries and failed to return to the game. With this being a knee injury, we could definitely see Indiana playing it safe and limiting Howard’s role, but there has been no concrete information released regarding his status as of yet. If Howard plays, there is no way that the 108th ranked Purdue rushing defense has a chance. If Howard is ruled out, we expect to see Devine Redding getting the majority of carries as he looked good last week averaging 5.4 yards per carry on 24 attempts.

Recommendation: If Howard is healthy for this matchup, he is a top play in all formats. Devine Redding becomes an immediate value option in all formats if Howard is ruled out.

WR - Simmie Cobbs – 4,400

Analysis: Simmie Cobbs exploded last week for a season high 9 receptions and 192 yards. Cobbs has now caught at least 5 passes for 100+ yards in 3 of his last 5 games. While he hasn’t received many touchdown looks, Cobbs has developed into the #1 target in the Indiana offense. He should have a decent shot at the end zone here, but his upside may be relatively limited with Jordan Howard being the focal point of the Hoosiers offense.

Recommendation: Cobbs has a solid floor with salary relief, making him very playable in cash games. His lack of red zone usage makes him a tough play in tournaments.

Purdue

Team Expected Points: 30.75

Purdue is full of fantasy value as many of their players are priced down facing Indiana’s atrocious defense allowing over 500 yards and 37 points per game. With David Blough doubtful to play, we expect to see another dose of QB Austin Appleby (5,200) as he comes into this premium matchup against Indiana. Appleby attempted 40 passes last week in a tough spot against Iowa, completing 57.5% of those pass attempts for 259 yards and a touchdown. In his previous game action, we saw some solid rushing attempts as well—so a few yards on the ground is certainly not out of the question for Appleby.

WR Deangelo Yancey (4,100) should be Appleby’s top target through the air. In their last game together, Appleby hit Yancey for a season high 9 receptions and 117 yards.

RB Markell Jones (5,500) should also get plenty of opportunities here. We saw him carry 24 times for 87 yards and a touchdown last week against a top tier Iowa run defense. Jones has found the end zone in 3 of his last 4 games on top of catching 5 passes on his previous 3 games until last week where he only caught 2. Jones is heavily involved in this offense, and while Indiana is known for their weak secondary, Jones will get the red zone carries to set him up for solid touchdown potential.

Recommendation: Anyone involved in the Purdue passing / receiving attack is in play. Appleby is a cheap punt at quarterback while Yancey is a top value play at his position. Markell Jones is also one of our top value running backs, playable in all formats as he should have a solid chance at a touchdown with multi-reception upside.

Clemson at South Carolina

Kickoff: 12:00PM EST

Spread: Clemson -17

O/U: 55

Clemson

Team Expected Points: 36

QB – Deshaun Watson – 8,900

Analysis: With his continued fantasy dominance, Deshaun Watson remains one of the top plays on any slate at the quarterback position. Watson has passed for over 340 yards and at least 2 touchdowns in 3 of his last 4 games while rushing for over 100 yards in 2 of those games. Watson should be in a good spot for another solid game facing a South Carolina team that seems to have absolutely quit on the season after their embarrassing loss to the Citadel last week.

Recommendation:  Watson is pricey, but his floor should be at least 2 times his salary with a ceiling as high as any other player on the slate. While we do see a number of better values at quarterback, Watson is safe to play in any format.

South Carolina

Team Expected Points: 19

The Gamecocks want this season to be over as they enter their last game against the #1 team in the country with a 3-8 record on the heels of an embarrassing loss to the Citadel last week—a game in which South Carolina entered as a 22-point favorite. Outside of a contrarian GPP play of WR Pharoh Cooper (6,400) who exploded last week, we are avoiding the Gamecocks offense.

Iowa State at West Virginia

Kickoff: 12:00PM EST

Spread: West Virginia -14

O/U: 61

Iowa State

Team Expected Points: 23.5

QB – Joel Lanning – 6,200

Analysis: Joel Lanning for Iowa State is coming off his best 2 games of the year as he’s showcased his legs to the tune of 173 rushing yards and 3 touchdowns. While Lanning did fumble 4 times last week, he still remains the starter and should be forced to throw more against West Virginia as the Cyclones come in as 2-touchdown underdogs.

Recommendation: Lanning is a GPP only play due to his upside from the rushing game. His floor is low however as West Virginia has a quality defense.

West Virginia

Team Expected Points: 37.5

QB – Skyler Howard – 6,900

Analysis: West Virginia has decisively committed to their running game in recent weeks, and while we would think that limits Skyler Howard, he showed us last week that he too can be involved in that rushing attack with 129 rushing yards and a touchdown from 9 attempts. Howard has passed for less than 150 yards in each of the last 3 weeks, but he has rushed for a touchdown in each of those games as well.

Recommendation: Facing a below average Iowa State defense with a 60+ point total, Howard is certainly in play. His price is a bit high though, so we find him slightly risky for cash games but can certainly endorse the play for tournament formats.

SMU at Memphis

Kickoff: 12:00PM EST

Spread: Memphis -21

O/U: 73

SMU

Team Expected Points: 25.75

QB – Matt Davis – 7,100

Analysis: This matchup is solid for Matt Davis, as Memphis has been struggling against the pass all season allowing nearly 300 passing yards per game. The Tigers have allowed over 30 points in each of their last 3 games, and this O/U is one of the highest on the slate. Davis is a dual threat option who has 100+ rushing yard upside and has scored a touchdown in each of his last 3 games. He doesn’t have a ton of weapons around him, but he should be required to stay involved as SMU will be playing from behind here.

Recommendation: While Davis has some solid upside, we are projecting a number of other cheaper quarterbacks with similar or more upside.

Memphis

Team Expected Points: 47.25

QB – Paxton Lynch – 8,100

Analysis: Lynch has really struggled in recent weeks as Memphis has lost 3 in a row after starting the season 8-0. Lynch has now failed to exceed 300 passing yards in each of his last 2 games, and he was held without a touchdown last week for the first time all season. His matchups in recent weeks have been tough, but we expect him to bounce back in a huge way this week against the very porous SMU defense allowing a whopping 504 yards and 44.1 points per game. SMU is known for allowing huge scores to opposing offenses, and we have seen Memphis run up the scoreboard on multiple occasions this year. Lynch is playing for his pride and draft stock here, so we expect a big performance.

Recommendation: We project Lynch to be one of the higher scoring quarterbacks on the slate. He is pricey, but should be in a great spot for huge numbers here. Lynch may be under-owned due to his recent performances, so feel free to roll with him in all formats. He has a number of options in the passing game as well, but we see WR Sam Craft (3,600) as a solid value to stack with Lynch in tournaments.

Georgia at Georgia Tech

Kickoff: 12:00PM EST

Spread: Georgia -5

O/U: 47.5

Georgia

Team Expected Points: 26.25

RB - Sony Michel – 7,600

Analysis: Sony Michel continues to be fed carries in this offense as he now has 22+ attempts in 5 of his last 6 games started. Michel had a solid outing last week against Georgia State with 132 yards and a touchdown, but we honestly expected more from him with as many carries he received in that very solid matchup. Georgia Tech’s rushing defense has been OK this season, but Michel should still have a good chance at over 100 yards with his utilization.

Recommendation: Michel is priced near the elite options on this slate, but he has mostly underperformed his potential given the huge opportunity he has been afforded in this offense. At this price, we can’t recommend Michel as a viable option as you will want to opt for the other guys at this salary tier.

Georgia Tech

Team Expected Points: 21.25

As is the case for this entire season, we will again fade the Georgia Tech offense as consistent production from any 1 player just cannot be predicted nor expected.

Louisville at Kentucky

Kickoff: 12:00PM EST

Spread: 53.5

O/U: Louisville -4

Louisville

Team Expected Points: 28.75

With Coach Petrino having still refused to name a starting quarterback, it is tough to feel good about rolling with anyone from this game in your cash lineups. However, when it comes to tournaments, we are really eyeing a cheap stack of both QB Lamar Jackson (6,000) and WR Jamari Staples (5,200). Jackson is most likely to receive the start; he came in to finish the game last week and is clearly the most explosive option considering his rushing ability. Staples has absolutely went off in a few games this season, including his last one where he had a huge stat line of 9 receptions, 194 yards, and 1 touchdown. This stack could pay huge dividends in a tournament, but it is rather risky in a cash game situation.

Kentucky

Team Expected Points: 24.75

Until last week, Kentucky has really struggled on offense as they failed to exceed 3 touchdowns in each of those 4 games. They had a very soft matchup last week against Charlotte, but we expect a characteristic performance this week against Louisville. The only option worth considering would be RB Stanley Boom Williams (5,000) as a contrarian tournament play.

Colorado at Utah

Kickoff: 2:30PM EST

Spread: Utah -16.5

O/U: 49.5

Colorado

Team Expected Points: 16.5

Outside of WR Nelson Spruce (6,100) in a tournament setting, we see no viable plays for Colorado as they face a tough defense in Utah.

Utah

Team Expected Points: 33

RB – Joe Williams – 5,300

Analysis: Joseph Williams performed just as we may have expected last week while filling in for Devontae Booker. Williams was afforded a substantial workload as he rushed 26 times for 121 yards while hauling in 4 receptions for another 31 yards. While he did not find the end zone as Utah was stifled by UCLA, his workload alone should spell upside as Williams gets a softer matchup against a Cal defense allowing over 200 rushing yards per game.

Recommendation: Williams has understandably had a price correction this week, but we still have him as a solid value worth consideration in all formats as he sits atop our projections.

Penn State at Michigan State

Kickoff: 3:30PM EST

Spread: Michigan State -10.5

O/U: 46.5

Penn State

Team Expected Points: 18

We have found very little fantasy relevance in Penn State’s offense this season, and that is no different here in their last game of the regular season.

Michigan State

Team Expected Points: 28.5

Michigan State is in a tough matchup here against Penn State’s top defense. We would not recommend taking this risk—fade the Spartans as this game should be ugly.

Alabama at Auburn

Kickoff: 3:30PM EST

Spread: Alabama -14

O/U: 48.5

Alabama

Team Expected Points: 31.25

Everyone on Alabama is priced up in this matchup, including RB Derrick Henry (9,100) sitting atop the pack by a substantial amount at his position. There are much better values on this slate, making it tough to pay up for Henry.

Auburn

Team Expected Points: 17.25

It would be rather silly to consider anyone on the Tigers offense facing Alabama. Fade it.

Northwestern at Illinois

Kickoff: 3:30PM EST

Spread: Northwestern -3.5

O/U: 41

Northwestern

Team Expected Points: 21.25

RB – Justin Jackson – 6,500

Analysis: Justin Jackson has been a workhorse for this entire season as he comes into their final regular season game averaging nearly 24 carries and over 100 yards per game. Jackson now has 3 straight 100+ yard games and is coming off a season-high 35 carries in their last outing against Wisconsin. The issue with Jackson all season though has been his inability to find the end zone. Over 12 games this year, Jackson has only scored 3 times. His upside is certainly a concern, but he floor should be there in this decent matchup where we expect heavy utilization once again.

Recommendation: Justin Jackson is a high floor, low ceiling play as he should have a good shot at 100+ rushing yards, but an unlikely chance at multiple touchdowns. He does have 2 of his 3 touchdowns this year in his last 2 games, so the trend very well could continue. Use Jackson sparingly in cash games only.

Illinois

Team Expected Points: 18.75

RB - Josh Ferguson - 4,400

Analysis: Josh Ferguson has performed rather inconsistently on the ground this season when he has been healthy, but his recent games remind us of his previous dominance with the uptick in usage in the passing attack. Ferguson has caught 18 passes for 102 yards and a touchdown in his last 3 games while also rushing for over 100 yards in 2 of those. Touchdowns have come at a premium however, which we expect to continue this week in his very tough matchup against a Northwestern defense allowing just under 325 total yards and 18 points per game in their last 4 outings.

Recommendation: Ferguson is cheap, but this game has such a low O/U that it’s hard to consider anyone in it. Ferguson will be a tournament play only.

North Carolina at NC State

Kickoff: 3:30PM EST

Spread: North Carolina -6

O/U: 65

North Carolina

Team Expected Points: 35.25

While North Carolina has had an extremely explosive offense this season led by QB Marquise Williams (8,500), we see the Tar Heels having more of a struggle than they might anticipate as they visit NC State in the last regular season game of the year. RB Elijah Hood (6,800) has rushed for over 100 yards in each of his last 2 games with 6 touchdowns over his last 3 outings. However, his price this week makes it difficult to recommend Hood against a talented NC State run defense. I was surprised to see North Carolina only favored by only 6 points in this game, and with the offense as priced up as they are in this relatively tough defensive matchup, we will have to avoid most exposure outside of tournaments.

NC State

Team Expected Points: 29.25

The NC State offense is in shambles after losing Matt Dayes at running back. QB Jacoby Brissett (5,700) is continuing to do what he can with his passing and rushing ability, although we have only seen Brissett rush over 40 yards once this season. Brissett is a cheap option, but we would pass on him given the minimal upside. WR Jaylen Samuels (4,400) has been playing a huge part in this offense in recent weeks, scoring at least 1 touchdown in 4 straight games. He only had 1 reception last week, but had 7 or 8 in each of the previous 3 weeks. He may not put up huge yardage totals, but these receptions and touchdown upside make Samuels a playable option who should be relatively under-owned.

UCLA at USC

Kickoff: 3:30PM EST

Spread: UCLA -3.5

O/U: 63

UCLA

Team Expected Points: 33.25

With the Trojans rushing defense ranked 36th on the season, we would not recommend trusting UCLA’s main running backs in this game. RB Paul Perkins (7,100) will always have a role to play in tournament lineups as his upside is enormous, but we would not recommend significant exposure. WR Jordan Payton (6,000) had another solid game last week with 7 receptions and 105 yards, but he failed to find the end zone for the 5th straight game. USC has a bad passing defense ranked 107th in yards per game, so Payton should have some yardage upside. While Payton is in consideration for cash games, he is a definite risk for tournaments due to his lack of touchdowns.

USC

WR - Juju Smith-Schuster – 6,600

Analysis: Juju Smith-Schuster is probable to play this week after suffering multiple minor injuries in last week’s game against Oregon. Smith did fail to find the end zone for only the 3rd times this year was held to a season low 3 receptions last week against Cal, but he did finish the game with 66 yards and a touchdown to salvage some fantasy points on the day. This week Smith sees a downgrade in matchup as they are up against UCLA’s 43rd ranked passing defense.

Recommendation: For his price, Smith-Scheuster is certainly playable in any format as we are digging for wide receiver talent.

Wisconsin at Minnesota

Kickoff: 3:30PM EST

Spread: Wisconsin -2.5

O/U: 43

We have a very low O/U here in a game between a couple of very solid defenses that are stingy when it comes to scoring touchdowns. With limited fantasy standouts on either team regardless of matchup, we are definitely electing to fade this one altogether.