Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 11-21-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 14 (28 teams)
West Virginia at Kansas
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: West Virginia -28
O/U: 59
West Virginia
Team Expected Points: 43.5
RB – Wendell Smallwood – 7,600
Analysis: West Virginia has shown that they are now fully committed to the run, and Wendell Smallwood looks to be at the front of that charge. Smallwood’s workload has increased in each of the past 3 games as he has carried the ball 20, 22, and 24 times for a total of 445 yards and 1 touchdown. Kansas may have the worst defense in the league, and West Virginia is a huge favorite—all great bonuses for Smallwood to have some massive upside here.
Recommendation: Smallwood has a huge ceiling in this game, but the blowout potential gives us pause regarding his floor as he could lose carries early if it gets out of hand. Look for Smallwood in GPP formats only.
Kansas
Team Expected Points: 15.5
RB – Ke’aun Kinner – 4,500
Analysis: Don’t get me wrong—the Kansas offense is bad. Ke’aun Kinner has made the best of a bad situation as the running back on a winless team as he is all this offense really has. While Kinner has not scored since the third game of the season, he has carried the ball 13 and 17 times in their past 2 games with 147 yards across that stretch.
Recommendation: Kinner is a minimum price tournament punt option against a good West Virginia defense. Use him very sparingly.
TE – Kent Taylor – 2,000
Analysis: Kent Taylor is a hit or miss tight end option at minimum price this week. While Taylor caught a few passes per game earlier in the season, he has since dropped off a bit, catching nothing in 2 of his last 3 games. Taylor did however have a season high 3 receptions for 28 yards 2 weeks ago, so there is a shot that he gets some looks.
Recommendation: Taylor is a punt tournament option only, as there is a definitely chance he could score nothing but also a shot that he makes it into the end zone.
Memphis at Temple
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Memphis -1.5
O/U: 58.5
Memphis
Team Expected Points: 30
TE – Alan Cross – 2,600
Analysis: Memphis will face a test here against Temple’s defense that has played well all season. QB Paxton Lynch (8,600) has been your main play for the Tigers all season, but there are a number of other options that we’d rather consider near his price range. Alan Cross is had been one of the more solid tight ends earlier in the season, going 7 straight games with at least 2 receptions. He has cooled down recently with no usage 2 weeks ago against Navy and only 1 catch last week at Houston, however that 1 look was for 38 yards and a touchdown to give Cross one of his bigger fantasy scores of the season.
Recommendation: Cross is priced way down and has proven that he gets touchdown looks. We do not mind him in any format this week due to the value he presents.
Temple
Team Expected Points: 28.5
RB – Jahad Thomas – 8,100
Analysis: Jahad Thomas is one of the most heavily utilized backs in the league as he averages over 21 carries per game with 16 touchdowns and over 1200 total yards on the season. Thomas has scored a touchdown in every single game this season with 4 100+ yard outings along with 4 games of at least 3 receptions. While he has cooled down in his past 4 outings, Thomas should have some decent upside here against a bad Memphis defense.
Recommendation: Thomas is definitely pricey, but a solid option nonetheless. While a number of value options will be competing for your slots at running back, Thomas makes for a decent pivot in cash games or tournaments from someone like Royce Freeman around this price point.
Michigan at Penn State
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Michigan -4
O/U: 42.5
Michigan
Team Expected Points: 23.25
TE – Jake Butt – 3,700
Analysis: Jake Butt has had some nice games as of late with at least 4 receptions in 3 straight outings, including 7 catches for 82 yards and a touchdown last week. Butt has been involved in this offense all year, and albeit the matchup is very tough against Penn State, he should still be safe for a few catches and a possible touchdown opportunity.
Recommendation: Jake Butt has is your highest priced and safest option at tight end this week. At a really thin position, you can roll out Butt with confidence in all formats. However, in your tournaments, realize that his ownership will likely be 40% or more, so you may want to pivot to someone like Alan Cross.
Penn State
Team Expected Points: 19.25
We are fading Penn State’s 104th ranked offense against Michigan’s elite defense.
North Carolina at Virginia Tech
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: North Carolina -5
O/U: 61.5
North Carolina
Team Expected Points: 33.25
QB – Marquise Williams – 9,700
Analysis: Marquise Williams has put up huge fantasy numbers in polar opposite ways over the past 2 weeks. After passing for nearly 500 yards and 4 touchdowns against Miami, Williams followed up last week with a mere 105 passing yards and 1 touchdown but 101 rushing yards and 3 rushing touchdowns. Williams has proven his upside on multiple occasions this season, but he finds himself in a difficult matchup on the road against a surging Virginia Tech team with fire in their bellies after winning 2 straight as the Hokies play to become bowl eligible.
Recommendation: Williams should be considered a contrarian tournament play only this week as he has a far less favorable matchup than many others priced below him. He is too expensive to be considered for cash games given the other solid options.
Virginia Tech
Team Expected Points: 28.25
RB - Travon McMillian – 7,800
Analysis: Travon McMillian continues to impress as he has rushed over 100 yards in 3 straight starts with 4 touchdowns in that stretch. McMillian is the only running back this season to rush for over 100 yards against Boston College’s elite defensive front—a feat that even Dalvin Cook could not accomplish. McMillian is set up for another big week in his best matchup of the season against an atrocious North Carolina rushing defense allowing 206 rushing yards per game (110th overall).
Recommendation: McMillian will have a very solid chance of crossing 100 yards with multiple touchdowns as we expect Virginia Tech do all that they can to keep the ball away from the Tar Heels offense. McMillian is a great option to consider in all formats and one of our top plays at the position.
Duke at Virginia
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Virginia -2
O/U: 53.5
Duke
Team Expected Points: 25.75
Duke has been in a major slump as of late. While QB Thomas Sirk (8,000) is expected back this week, he is priced far above where we see him performing. On a 1-quarterback site, we can’t stomach playing him. The rest of this offense remains off-limits.
Virginia
Team Expected Points: 27.25
RB – Taquan Mizzell – 6,400
Analysis: Mizzell has been very consistent this year due to his heavy involvement in the passing game. He leads the team in receptions with 63, averaging over 6 receptions and 120 total yards per game. Touchdowns have been hard to come by though, as he only has 5 all year despite touching the ball over 200 times. He has a relatively difficult matchup against Duke, albeit the Blue Devils have been in a big slump as of late, so it’s tough to know what to expect from them at this point.
Recommendation: Mizzell could bust off for a big game, but we think his ceiling is relatively limited. There are a number of other options with higher upside to be considered in his price range, so only roll with Mizzell if looking for an easy 10-15 points and no more.
Michigan State at Ohio State
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Ohio State -13.5
O/U: 53
Michigan State
Team Expected Points: 20
Michigan State has some talent on offense, including top quarterback prospect QB Connor Cook (7,600) and WR Aaron Burbridge (7,400). However, they are in a very tough spot against an elite Ohio State defense and Cook has been banged up recently due to the poor play we have seen by their offensive line. We will be avoiding the Spartan studs, but one guy you can consider despite the matchup is WR MacGarrett Kings Jr. (5,500). Kings is a cheap play with touchdown upside, and while he is far a safe play, the low ownership and salary makes him an option worth considering in tournaments.
Ohio State
Team Expected Points: 33.5
QB – JT Barrett – 8,800
Analysis: Barrett has played relatively well since taking over the starting job for the Buckeyes, and this game against Michigan State is their most important one yet. Barrett is on a big stage here against a defense that has a ton of name recognition, but has not lived up to it with their 86th ranked passing defense that allowed both Indiana and Nebraska to blow them up. Barrett can hurt you in all facets of the game as he has 6 passing and 8 rushing touchdowns in his last 4 games played. While the O/U is not nearly where we’d like it to be, we expect Ohio State to play as hard as they have all season here with Barrett playing a large role in that effort.
Recommendation: Barrett has a ton of upside, but with Heisman hopeful Ezekiel Elliott on the field, his floor is always a big lower than we’d like to see it. Barrett can be considered in all formats as he is cheaper than the other elite quarterback options, however we would lean more towards tournament usage due to the likely risk of Elliott running wild.
Arizona at Arizona State
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Arizona State -7.5
O/U: 68.5
Arizona
Team Expected Points: 30.5
QB - Anu Solomon- 7,200, Jerrard Randall – 6,000
Analysis: Anu Soloman just can’t seem to stay healthy this season as he was banged up yet again last week with a head injury forcing him to leave in the 4th quarter. Despite the injury however, Soloman posted big numbers as he passed for 277 yards and 2 touchdowns while rushing for a season high 86 yards and 1 touchdown. We will be monitoring his status up until game time, but if Soloman is deemed good to go, he has a premium matchup against Arizona State’s 122nd ranked pass defense allowing nearly 300 passing yards per game. If Soloman is ruled out, you will have to consider Jerrard Randall due purely to the matchup upside.
Recommendation: Anu Solomon is one of our top quarterback plays of the week. If he is given the green light to start going into Saturday, Soloman is an excellent option in all formats. If Soloman is ruled out, Randall will also be a great option but with much less upside than Soloman as Arizona State has been much more effective against the run than the pass.
Arizona State
Team Expected Points: 38
RB – Demario Richard – 7,000, Kalen Ballage – 5,600
Analysis: Demario Richard has played a solid role in Arizona State’s offense this season, however we saw him regress a bit last week against Washington as Richard put up his 2nd lowest rushing total of the year with only 35 yards on 14 carries and 0 touchdowns while watching counterpart Kalen Ballage rush for 92 yards and 2 touchdowns from only 11 carries. Ballage’s presence is certainly a threat to Richard’s upside as Ballage has seen double digit carries in 6 straight games with as many touchdowns (4) as Richard in that stretch.
Recommendation: With the emergence and productivity of Ballage in recent weeks, Richard becomes a tough play. Richard does have a great matchup and is at a solid price in this slate, so tournament consideration is well within reason as he still remains the clear starting running back with significant multi-reception upside. Ballage is a tournament-only option considering the uncertainty around his role.
WR – Tim White – 4,900, DJ Foster – 5,100
Analysis: Both Tim White and DJ Foster are the go-to options for Arizona State in the passing attack. Foster leads the team in receptions with 50 while White leads the team in touchdowns with 6. Each have had solid involvement in recent weeks and find themselves in a great matchup against Arizona’s 109th ranked pass defense.
Recommendation. White and Foster are punt options at the positions as they each are priced down. While it is close between the 2, we would project White as having the slight edge in terms of value due to his discounted price. We would only roster these guys in tournaments though due to the uncertainty around who could have significant success.
Houston at Connecticut
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Houston -9.5
O/U: 49
Houston
Team Expected Points: 29.25
QB - Greg Ward Jr. - 8,800, Kyle Postma – 6,500
Analysis: Many of you were likely quite frustrated last week as Greg Ward Jr. left last week’s game very early from an ankle injury, failing to even score 1 fantasy point. What makes that situation even more frustrating in hindsight is that reports indicate he could have played in the 2nd half if needed. Ward is listed as questionable coming into the matchup against Connecticut, so you will need to closely monitor his status. Ward’s upside comes from his ability to run, so we will want some assurances of his health before feeling comfortable rolling him out at this price. If Ward is out, Kyle Postma will be in for his first career start. Postma would be a very popular play in this situation at his salary, but we are not buying it as we would expect him to struggle against a much tougher UConn defense than what he saw from Memphis last week.
Recommendation: If 100% healthy, Greg Ward is one of the best option on this slate. But let’s be realistic, we do not expect to be that comfortable with Ward’s health, making him a risky play even if he is announced the starter given the chance at limited mobility from his ankle injury. We would recommend JT Barrett ahead of ward as each are priced at 8,800. Postma should be popular tournament play if we hear that Ward is out, and given this offensive system and Postma’s ability to run, we can certainly see the argument. However, there are a number of values on this slate that shouldn’t require you to punt quarterback.
RB - Kenneth Farrow - 7,400
Analysis: As we said last week, Kenneth Farrow is a volume running back who is going to find the end zone on a regular basis. While his volume was lacking with a season-low 10 rush attempts, Farrow did find the end zone twice for his 4th multi-touchdown game of the season. With Ward potentially limited or out, we would expect the game plan to center more around Farrow despite the tricky matchup against UConn’s 41st ranked defense. He should see both volume and touchdown opportunities here.
Recommendation: While Farrow may be in for more work this week, we are apprehensive about paying for him here with some of the other values to be found. Farrow has GPP value, but we would fade him outside of those formats.
Connecticut
Team Expected Points: 19.75
RB – Arkeel Newsome – 7,200
Analysis: Arkeel Newsome is a gem hidden behind what is a very bad UConn offense ranked 114th in the country. Newsome is a starting running back with high utilization in both facets of this offense, as he has accounted for twice as many total yards and touchdowns as any other player on the Huskies squad. Newsome is averaging nearly 4 receptions and 100 total yards per game this season with over 20 rush attempts in each of his last 2 games. In addition to this usage on offense, Newsome is also heavily involved in the Huskies special teams as their kick / punt returner—only adding to his already huge upside.
Recommendation: While the matchup is not the best from a rushing perspective, Newsome can score fantasy points in a variety of ways and should be in a good spot for production at home as they try to knock off the undefeated Cougars. His price is not the best on FanDuel in particular, so lean to him more in tournaments rather than cash games.
LSU at Ole Miss
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Ole Miss -6.5
O/U: 56
LSU
Team Expected Points: 24.75
WR – Malachi Dupre – 5,900, Travin Dural – 5,100
Analysis: Malachi Dupre had a huge game last week against a bad Arkansas secondary as he finished with 109 yards and a touchdown from a season-high 8 receptions. Dupre now has caught at least 1 touchdown pass with 70+ yards in 4 of his last 5 games. He is proving to be a big part of LSU’s passing game, and should be set up for a solid performance again this week. The Ole Miss defense is ranked 92nd against the pass as their focus has been more on stopping the run rather than allowing big plays through the air. This defensive strategy led to a season high 53 points allowed in their last game against Arkansas, so we certainly can see room for points to be scored here. While Travin Dural remains a big option for LSU despite his stinker last week, Dupre is showing big play upside that has to be considered.
Recommendation: Dupre has decent value at this salary as LSU may need to pass here if playing from behind. However, his floor can be low due to the presence of Fournette, so he is more of a tournament option. Dural had a rough outing last week, so his ownership levels should be down making him more of a tournament option as well.
Ole Miss
Team Expected Points: 31.25
The Rebels face a tough test this week against LSU’s solid defense. QB Chad Kelly (9,100) is coming off an epic 60+ fantasy point performance in his last game against Arkansas, but we expect significant regression against a much better defense this week. Kelly rarely rushes for more than 50 yards in a game, and while he is usually a candidate for 300+ yards passing, he should struggle to pay off his ridiculous salary in this bad matchup. Other options in this offense are either priced out of our value range (i.e. WR Laquon Treadwell – 8,300) or lack the upside we would like to see due to the stout matchup.
Northwestern at Wisconsin
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Wisconsin -10
O/U: 40
Northwestern
Team Expected Points: 15
This game has an O/U of only 40 in a contest between a couple of defensive powers. Northwestern relies heavily on their rushing attack, but they face Wisconsin’s #5 rushing defense allowing less than 100 rushing yards per game. We find no value in Northwestern players on this slate.
Wisconsin
Team Expected Points: 25
Wisconsin is also in a tough spot here, so with the O/U where it is, we are avoiding playing it safe and everyone in this game.
UCLA at Utah
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Utah -1.5
O/U: 55
UCLA
Team Expected Points: 26.75
WR – Jordan Payton – 6,400
Analysis: While Utah has been stout against the run this year, their passing defense can be exploited as they rank 100th in the country. Jordan Payton is UCLA’s leading receiver and is coming off a career-best performance with 14 catches for 152 yards last week. Payton has over 100 yards in 2 of his last 3 games, but he has not reached the end zone in his last 4 outings. We expect this game to be close and Payton should be a go-to target to keep UCLA in it with one of the top teams in the country.
Recommendation: Payton is fairly priced here, but his lack of touchdown upside with no more than a single touchdown in a game this season makes him tough to justify in tournaments. Payton is a viable more so for cash games this week.
Utah
Team Expected Points: 28.25
RB – Joseph Williams – 4,500
Analysis: With Devontae Booker out for the season, Joseph Williams is expected to take over starting duties. Williams should be in for a solid workload and has shown his ability to catch the ball in limited opportunities. If used like Booker, Williams could have some nice upside.
Recommendation: At minimum price, Joseph Williams is an absolutely phenomenal play in all formats as he should assume most of Booker’s role here. He is close to a must-play for your cash game lineups.
USC at Oregon
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Oregon -4.5
O/U: 72
USC
Team Expected Points: 33.75
RB - Ronald Jones – 6,300
Analysis: Ronald Jones received a season high 19 carries for the second straight week, but was much less effective last week than he was against Arizona as he averaged only 3.2 yards per carry for 61 yards and was kept out of the end zone for the first time in 3 weeks. Despite this rough game against Cal, Jones has shown his ability to make plays this season and find a way into the end zone. He has a fairly solid matchup against a weak overall defense from Oregon, and if Tre Madden is out again, Jones should be in store for at least 15 carries again.
Recommendation: Jones is at a fair price this week as he should be in for a decent workload. We are projecting a good game as he comes out as a playable option in your cash games.
WR - Juju Smith – 7,500
Analysis: Juju Smith was held to a season low 3 receptions last week against Cal, but he did finish the game with 66 yards and a touchdown to salvage some fantasy points on the day. Smith has been the most reliable weapon in the Trojans passing attack this season with g games of at least 100 yards and only 2 games without a touchdown. Oregon is one of only 5 teams allowing an average of more than 300 passing yards per game this season, so we expect Smith to be in store for a huge game—especially considering the high O/U and spread with USC as the underdog.
Recommendation: Smith is a safe play this week in this premium matchup. He is pricey, but there we’ve given you some values so you could definitely fit him in. Feel free to roll him out in all formats.
Oregon
Team Expected Points: 38.25
WR – Darren Carrington – 6,400, Bralon Addison – 5,400
Analysis: In only 4 games this season, Carrington has surpassed 100 yards 3 times with a catch of at least 36 yards in each game. Even though Oregon isn’t winning as many games this season, they still run a very fast paced offensive attack that is known for some significant big play upside. USC’s passing defense is definitely their weakness as they allow over 250 passing yards per game on average.
Recommendation: Carrington may be a secondary option in the offense, but he still has tons of upside in this high paced system. Carrington is at a solid price for an Oregon receiver, making him one of our top value plays at the position.
RB – Royce Freeman – 8,200
Analysis: Freeman has been a monster this season as he’s accounted for over 100 yards of total offense in every game this season with only 2 outings in which he failed to score a touchdown. Freeman is averaging over 20 carries per game with 19 receptions on the season, making him an absolute focal point of this high flying offense. The Trojans rushing defense is solid on paper, but they have been hit or miss against elite backs this season. CJ Prosise ran all over the Trojans for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns, but they then shut down Devontae Booker for only 62 yards and no touchdowns the following week. Overall, Freeman is in a tough matchup but should still have a relatively high floor.
Recommendation: This game has too high of a total not to consider Freeman. He is priced below the top tier on this slate, but if choosing around this price, we are projecting Virginia Tech’s McMillian to have a slightly better game in his more desirable matchup. Freeman is a great tournament option.
Wake Forest at Clemson
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Clemson -29
O/U: 48
Wake Forest
Team Expected Points: 9.5
Wake Forest’s 112th ranked offense is an easy fade against the #1 team in the country.
Clemson
Team Expected Points: 38.5
RB – Wayne Gallman – 7,000, Zac Brooks – 4,500
Analysis: While Clemson is one of, if not the best all-around team in the country, that sometimes doesn’t help you in the world of fantasy sports. They are huge favorites over Wake Forest in a game with a relatively low O/U of under 50. We see Wayne Gallman as the only viable option to consider here as Clemson will not need to pass the ball much to go up quickly in this game. However, with Gallman’s health concerns, there is a good chance he could sit, especially considering how much of a favorite Clemson is in this game. We see Zac Brooks as the next best option, as he is averaging 6.9 yards per carry with 3 touchdowns on limited opportunities this season.
Recommendation: Even if Gallman is a go, it will be tough to pay up for him in this game where he has a good shot at sitting after halftime. Zac Brooks at minimum price is intriguing even if Gallman is in, and makes for a very solid punt play in all formats if Gallman is ruled out.
