Join the Footballguys Daily Update
Start your morning with our roundup of the most important stories in football - with the fantasy insight you need to make league-winning decisions. Delivered straight to your inbox, 100% free.
Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 11-14-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 15 (30 teams)
Kansas at TCU
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: TCU -45
O/U: 70.5
Kansas
Team Expected Points: 13
The Kansas offense is just bad. We will be avoiding them as TCU will be absolutely rolling in this game.
TCU
Team Expected Points: 58
TCU will be out for blood in this game as they are coming off a very tough loss last week. Coming in as a 45-point favorite, we fully expect some fireworks out of the Horned Frogs, however beware that an early lead may mean your starters play only 1 half of football. QB Trevone Boykin (10,400) threw for over 400 passing yards and a touchdown last week, however he coughed up a career-high 4 interceptions in what was a tough outing. His fantasy numbers were fine—yet another week over 40 fantasy points, but they would have been much better if not for that pesky Oklahoma State secondary. This week he faces a polar opposite defense as Kansas ranks dead last in passing yards allowed per game with 330.6. While we think he takes a slight bump down if Josh Doctson is out, don’t expect to see a significant effect this week as Boykin should dominate the Jayhawks.
If you played WR Josh Doctson (8,400) last week, you may not have won many matchups as he had a disappointing fantasy day with only 6 receptions for 64 yards. The primary cause for this lackluster outing was a 2nd quarter wrist injury from which Doctson would not return. We will be keeping a close eye on Doctson’s status coming into Saturday as he could be ruled out or slightly limited in a game where he shouldn’t be needed at all. If Doctson were to be ruled out, we should see a huge bump to both WR KaVontae Turpin (5,200) and WR Kolby Listenbee (5,500). Listenbee hauled in the lone touchdown in their last outing, but he finished the night with only 3 receptions for 58 yards. Turpin was Boykin’s favorite wide out without Doctson on the field as he finished with 7 receptions for 107 total yards. Turpin now has 7 receptions in each of his last 2 games, while Listenbee has only 7 receptions combined from his last 2 games.
RB Aaron Green (6,200) has been very mediocre in his last 3 starts, failing to eclipse 100 rushing yards in each with only 1 touchdown across that span. We do expect him however to have a decent workload in this game since TCU will be rolling. Freshman RB Shaun Nixon (4,500) cut into what could have been Green’s receptions last week as Nixon hauled in a team-leading 9 catches for 146 yards. We see that performance as a bit of an outlier, as he only had 15 receptions all season prior to this. However, with Doctson potentially limited, Nixon may continue to see an expanded role in the passing game going forward due to how effective he was last week.
Recommendation: Basically, we are projecting everyone outside of Doctson to be a great play on FanDuel this week. Boykin is a top option at quarterback even with the blowout potential. Both Listenbee and Turpin are solid, with Turpin representing the better value in our eyes due to his recent usage and lower salary. Aaron Green comes in at a great price with plenty of upside, and Shaun Nixon is your minimum salary punt tournament play as he could just as easily finish with triple digit receiving yards again as he could with a lonely egg.
Maryland at Michigan State
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Michigan State -15
O/U: 55.5
Maryland
Team Expected Points: 21
QB – Perry Hills – 6,600
Analysis: The Maryland offense doesn’t have many options to be considered from a fantasy perspective. Perry Hills has shown some solid rushing upside in weeks past, however he was absolutely shut down in their last outing against Wisconsin resulting in being benched for the backup. While we expect Hills to start again this week, the outlook is not great against Michigan State.
Recommendation: Hills is a tournament-only option, highly contrarian.
Michigan State
Team Expected Points: 36
QB – Connor Cook – 8,400
Analysis: Connor Cook has been hot in his last 2 games, passing for over 330 yards with 4 touchdowns in each outing. After a slow start to the season, we may finally be seeing the NFL-caliber talent that has been touted all year. Cook sees a favorable matchup against the 91st ranked Maryland secondary, but we do expect a rather slowed game flow as the trio of Michigan State running backs primed should be to put this game away with the Spartans favorited by 2 touchdowns.
Recommendation: Cook is more of a tournament option here as he has plenty of matchup upside, but there is significant risk that the Spartans opt for a run-heavy approach. Cook would make for a great tournament stack with his WR1 Aaron Burbridge.
WR – Aaron Burbridge – 7,500
Analysis: Burbridge has been on a tear in recent weeks with at least 8 receptions and 128 yards in each of his last 4 games. With more than twice as many receptions and yards as anyone else in this offense, Burbridge is the clear go-to option with plenty of double digit reception upside. While he does not have elite wide receiver touchdown numbers, Burbridge certainly has the ability and potential to put up his 2nd multi-touchdown game of the season here.
Recommendation: Burbridge is one of the top receiving options on the slate. While a number of guys grade out higher from a value perspective, Burbridge is still high-upside play and very viable in tournament formats in what could be an under-owned Cook-Burbridge stack.
Ohio State at Illinois
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Ohio State -16.5
O/U: 55
Ohio State
Team Expected Points: 36.25
The Buckeyes are all very highly priced against what has been an impressive Illinois defense allowing just over 21 points and 340 yards per game this season. Even if Ohio State has success here, the primary weapons are far too pricey for us to consider given the value you can find in this slate from other high-upside games.
Illinois
Team Expected Points: 19.75
We are fading the Fighting Illini against Ohio State’s elite defense.
Georgia at Auburn
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Auburn -1.5
O/U: 51
Georgia
Team Expected Points: 25.25
RB – Sony Michel – 6,800
Analysis: Despite the injury concerns leading up to last week, Sony Michel put on a show as he rushed for a season high 165 yards on 24 carries against Kentucky. Michel finally found the end zone for the first time since taking over the starting job as he punched in a goal line carry. We were expecting the big performance last week, and our expectations are just as high going into this Saturday as Georgia faces an equally bad Auburn rushing defense, ranked 94th in the country. The rushing game is about all Georgia has as their quarterback play continues to be suspect.
Recommendation: Michel grades out as an excellent value and one of the top running back options on the slate, playable in all formats despite the relatively low O/U here.
Auburn
Team Expected Points: 27.25
Auburn’s offense has been skidding by all season with just enough to pull out a couple of games, but not enough to really jump on anyone’s fantasy radar. The only value we can find here is RB Javon Robinson (5,000) who has assumed starting duties over the past couple of weeks ahead of Peyton Barber. Robinson is priced way down, so he a actually represents a very solid play aside from his tough matchup.
Florida at South Carolina
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Florida -8
O/U: 46.5
Florida
Team Expected Points: 26.75
Florida’s offense has not been clicking at all this season, and after what we saw from the Gators on offense last week in addition to the low O/U in this game, we will be fading them here.
South Carolina
Team Expected Points: 19.25
South Carolina faces a Florida team led by their dominance on defense. We can’t trust any players from the Gamecocks this week and would not recommend any usage in daily fantasy.
NC State at Florida State
Kickoff: 12:30PM EST
Spread: Florida State -10
O/U: 53
NC State
Team Expected Points: 22
NC State has lost quite a bit of fantasy relevance now that Matt Dayes is gone for the season. Florida State has a talented defense ranked in the top quarter of football, so we expect QB Jacoby Brissett (6,600) and the rest of this offense to struggle. The only piece that is intriguing here is the role of TE Jaylen Samuels (5,600), who is both acting as a pass-catching tight end and running back filling in for Matt Dayes. While we in no means want to pay up for him at tight end, we could see Samuels as being a relatively under-owned tournament option due to his price tag.
Florida State
Team Expected Points: 32
The Seminoles are coming off a disappointing performance last week against Clemson’s top ranked defense. Florida State faces a solid NC State defense this week. While they may not necessarily be as good as their #9 defensive ranking indicates, the Wolfpack still has a stout defense can give an opposing offense fits. RB Dalvin Cook (9,300) should find room to run as he usually does and is our projected top scoring running back. However, given his extremely high salary, we find it tough to pay up for him given the high potential of other plays available at substantially lower salaries. QB Everett Golson (6,600) will once again take on starting duties, and he comes in with a relatively attractive price tag. Golson would make for a decent salary-saving option at the position, but he is only viable in tournament settings as the risk is too high for a cash game.
Washington at Arizona State
Kickoff: 3:00PM EST
Spread: Arizona State -2.5
O/U: 54
Washington
Team Expected Points: 25
TE - Joshua Perkins – 3,400
Analysis: Perkins has been one of the most solid tight ends this year. Just when we thought he would not produce, Perkins hauled in a 53-yard reception as his only catch last week against Utah. Perkins has caught at least 4 passes in 5 of his 9 games this season, so look for him to get involved early in this premium matchup against the 115th ranked Arizona State passing defense.
Recommendation: Perkins is an excellent play at the tight end position.
Arizona State
Team Expected Points: 27.5
While Arizona State is averaging over 30 points per game, they are facing a Washington defense allowing only 18.8 points per game and ranked 41st overall this season. While this matchup is not insurmountable, we find the majority of playmakers priced out of range considering what we believe they bring to the table this week. We are seeing a relatively low O/U with not much value to be had, so you can safely avoid this game.
Alabama at Mississippi State
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Alabama -8
O/U: 50
Alabama
Team Expected Points: 29.75
As is often the case with an Alabama game, we expect this to be a hard-nosed defense-dominated contest. Vegas agrees with the relatively low O/U around 50. While the Mississippi State defense may not look as dominant as Alabama on paper, they have certainly been disruptive with 25 sacks, 10 interceptions, and an FBS 5th 381 assisted tackles. RB Derrick Henry (8,900) may find room to run, but he is priced far too high for us to consider.
Mississippi State
Team Expected Points: 21.75
As you know by now, any team playing Alabama gets an instant downgrade. While QB Dak Prescott (9,800) has been setting fantasy scoreboards on fire as of late, he hasn’t played a defense like Alabama’s. At his top-level price, Dak is also an obvious fade outside of a contrarian tournament play due to potential upside from his rushing ability.
Clemson at Syracuse
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Clemson -27.5
O/U: 57.5
Clemson
Team Expected Points: 42.75
QB – Deshaun Watson – 9,800
Analysis: Deshaun Watson has shown why he should be in Heisman consideration as he has really picked up the pace in terms of production over the past few weeks. After passing for nearly 400 yards and 5 touchdowns 2 weeks ago against NC State, Watson cooled down through the air against Florida State but had his first 100+ rushing yard game of the season to help pad his stats. Watson is in a dream matchup against Syracuse here, as the Orange ranks 111th in passing yards per game allowing an atrocious 8.4 yards per attempt. We must also note however that Clemson is heavily favorited here, so there will be a chance that game script doesn’t require Watson to be too involved with an ultimate risk of a 2nd half benching if things get out of hand early.
Recommendation: We see Watson as one of the highest upside plays on the board, playable in all formats but particularly tournaments as there is risk that this game could become rush-heavy.
RB – Wayne Gallman – 7,200
Analysis: Wayne Gallman has had a solid season this year as he is soon to eclipse 1000 yards. He has certainly been heating up as of late with 3 straight games of 100+ yards and 1 touchdown in addition to 3 receptions in each of his last 2 games. Gallman averages over 20 carriers per game, and while his touchdown upside may be limited due to Watson’s rushing ability, we are confident that Gallman will get his touches as Clemson is expected to roll here.
Recommendation: Gallman’s workload alone puts him in consideration here, and he is a significant step down from the elite level backs. While we would favor a healthy CJ Prosise at his tier, Gallman could be an option for differentiation.
Syracuse
Team Expected Points: 14.75
Syracuse is very rarely in play from a fantasy perspective, and today is no exception as they face Clemson’s elite defense.
Kansas State at Texas Tech
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Texas Tech -5.5
O/U: 71.5
Kansas State
Team Expected Points: 32.75
QB – Joe Hubener – 6,200
Analysis: Joe Hubener seems to have a knack for rising to his competition this season. In games against the high powered offenses of Baylor and TCU, Hubener has averaged 34+ fantasy points by rushing for over 100 yards and at least 2 touchdowns per game. Hubener has averaged 132 rushing yards with 6 touchdowns in these 2 contests, while he averages only 24.5 rushing yards per game with 2 rushing touchdowns in the other 6 games played this season. This is an uncanny phenomenon that we believe will continue this week as he faces a Texas Tech defense ranked close to the bottom in total defense, allowing the 2nd most rushing yards per game overall.
Recommendation: Hubener is one of the cheaper quarterback options on the slate in a very good matchup. While he does represent a risk, we like Hubener as a very solid option to save on salary cap and load up at other positions. He is playable in all formats, but particularly tournaments.
Texas Tech
Team Expected Points: 38.25
The Kansas State defense ranks 37th against the run, but 119th against the pass—a matchup that screams upside for the Texas Tech Red Raiders. QB Patrick Mahomes (9,300) has his worst passing yardage game this year as he failed to reach 200 yards for the first time. Despite the lackluster yardage total, Mahomes still managed to pass for 3 touchdowns and rush for a season-high 73 yards on 18 carries. This soft passing matchup should present a great opportunity for Mahomes to put up 5th 400+ yard passing performance of the season.
WR Jakeem Grant (7,400) remains the top option among Texas Tech wide receivers, however he has been very inconsistent as of late. Grant has scored 40+ fantasy points in 2 of his last 6 games while scoring less than 15 fantasy points in the other 4 games. While we think his yardage total bounces back from the season-low 8 yards of last week, Grant still represents a risk due to how often the ball is spread around in this offensive system. The other receivers here all project out well but are all just as high of a risk as Grant due to the number of mouths to feed.
RB DeAndre Washington (7,400) was heavily used last week as he often proved to be the safest option as Mahomes struggled to find openings against West Virginia’s secondary. Washington finished with 102 rushing yards on 21 carries while adding a season-high 6 receptions for 64 yards and a touchdown. Washington is one of the most involved running backs in football, as he now has a touchdown in each of his last 5 games while averaging nearly 20 carries per game in that stretch. While his salary took a huge bump and his rushing matchup is not ideal, he still is on the radar here due to his usage patterns.
Recommendation: We expect Mahomes to bounce back here and he should be a safe option at quarterback in all formats with this game sporting an attractive 70+ O/U. The receivers have been quite unpredictable—while any of them are in play for exposure, we wouldn’t recommend it in cash games. Washington is very pricey and doesn’t grade out well at all from a value perspective given the minimized importance of receptions on FanDuel.
SMU at Navy
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Navy -21
O/U: 61
SMU
Team Expected Points: 20
SMU has no fantasy options we are willing to consider here.
Navy
Team Expected Points: 41
***UPDATE: With 25-35MPH winds in this game, the Navy RB Chris Swain (6,100) is now in play as they should avoid the pass even more than they already do***
QB – Keenan Reynolds – 7,100
Analysis: Keenan Reynolds is one of the most dangerous rushing quarterbacks in the league as he now has amassed 791 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns in 8 games so far this season. Reynolds had 6 multiple rushing touchdown games last season and 4 thus far this year, including a 5-touchdown explosion earlier in the year against East Carolina. He leads what has proven to be a very dangerous triple option offense as Navy ranks 3rd in the country in rushing yards per game. Reynolds will barely break 100 yards passing, but we fully expect him to have 100+ yard upside running the ball here.
Recommendation: This price of only 7,100 is very attractive given Reynold’s upside rushing the ball and finding his way into the end zone. He is our top value play of the day, and we would recommend exposure in all formats.
Miami at North Carolina
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: North Carolina -13
O/U: 64
Miami
Team Expected Points: 26
RB – Joseph Yearby – 5,500
Analysis: Joseph Yearby had a hot start to the season as he rushed for touchdowns in 4 straight games while averaging 7.3 yards per carry. The competition then stiffened in his last 5 games as Yearby has only found the end zone twice while averaging a paltry 3.5 yards per carry. While his performance has certainly taken a turn for the worst, Yearby has a solid matchup this week as North Carolina’s defense stinks against the run, allowing 218 rushing yards per game (114th in FBS). The Tar Heels absolutely shut down the passing game, so we expect Yearby to be heavily relied upon regardless of game flow.
Recommendation: Yearby comes in at a palatable salary this week, and given his expected utilization, he makes for a great play among the others within his salary range. He is the only player to consider from Miami this week.
North Carolina
Team Expected Points: 39
QB – Marquise Williams – 8,900
Analysis: After a career game last week where he passed for nearly 500 yards and 4 touchdowns, Marquise Williams should have the utmost level of confidence going into this week against Miami. The Tar Heels’ high paced offense is averaging over 40 points and nearly 500 total yards per game with their dual threat quarterback leading the charge. Williams has shown some big game upside as he did last week in addition to divisional games against Wake Forest and Georgia Tech earlier this season. The Miami defense is mediocre, so Williams should have a good shot at putting up a respectable stat line here.
Recommendation: Williams is a dangerous threat with his downfield passing and rushing ability. He is a step below many of the other elite options here, so if you need to hedge from Keenan Reynolds, Williams is not a bad option to pivot upwards to.
WR – Ryan Switzer – 4,800, Mack Hollins – 4,600, Quinshad Davis – 4,200
Analysis: The North Carolina receiving core gets plenty of work as Williams does an excellent job spreading the ball around. A receiver has caught more than 1 touchdown in a game only twice this season (Mack Hollins in 2 games). The 4 leading receivers each have at least 21 receptions and 397 yards. Over the past 2 weeks, we have seen Ryan Switzer explode for impressive long touchdown catches while as he has amassed 233 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Recommendation: Any of these receivers could be in play for tournaments, particularly Switzer—however it is a crap shoot to pick which one has a huge game due to the relative equality of targets and yardage spread around in this offense. We would avoid them in cash games.
Michigan at Indiana
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Michigan -13
O/U: 57.5
Michigan
Team Expected Points: 34.5
TE – Jake Butt – 3,300
Analysis: Jake Butt has had a very nice game last week as he led the team in receiving with 4 receptions for a season-high 102 yards. While Butt still hasn’t found the end zone since his big game in Week 1, he has been consistently used in the passing game throughout the season.
Recommendation: Jake Butt has a very attractive matchup against Indiana’s bumbling secondary. There are a few solid options at tight end on this slate, and we project Butt as being the top value of them all for your cash games.
Indiana
Team Expected Points: 21.5
Indiana has the pleasure of taking on the country’s #1 overall defense in Michigan. RB Jordan Howard (6,800) appears to finally be back healthy as he ran for 174 yards and 2 touchdowns on 22 carries against Iowa last week. While Iowa had a strong rushing defense, Howard runs into a buzz saw this week as he faces a Wolverine defense allowing only 80 rushing yards per game. While Howard makes for a solid contrarian play in tournaments, his salary and matchup eliminates him from consideration in cash games. The rest of the Indiana offense can safely be avoided.
Oklahoma State at Iowa State
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Oklahoma State -14
O/U: 63.5
Oklahoma State
Team Expected Points: 37.25
WR – James Washington – 7,600, David Glidden – 4,600
Analysis: James Washington has been one of the most consistent and explosive wide receivers in football over the past 3 weeks. In that period of 3 games, Washington has amassed 487 yards and 6 touchdowns from 15 receptions. His touchdown totals started at 1 against Kansas, followed by a 2-touchdeown game against Texas Tech and 3 touchdowns last week against TCU. He is definitely trending in the right direction and should be set up for success again as he gets the 109th ranked Iowa State passing defense allowing over 270 yards per game. However, we have seen Washington’s salary take a massive bump as he is now the highest price receiver not named Doctson on the board. David Glidden is at a much more affordable price and should also be able to take advantage of this matchup. He is coming off an abysmal 1-yard game last week which is driving why his price is near the minimum, but we see him bouncing back here as he was consistently involved in the offense prior to that and still leads the team in receptions on the season with 39.
Recommendation: Washington is just far too expensive for us to bite on this week, as we think that price movement was a bit extreme. Glidden is a great value at near minimum price as we expect him to see more balls thrown his way this week. Glidden is playable in all formats, while we would avoid Washington outside of the tournaments.
Iowa State
Team Expected Points: 23.25
Iowa State faces a tough challenge this week as they take on the 21st ranked Oklahoma State defense allowing only 18.1 points per game. RB Mike Warren (6,200) is the only potential play here as he has been dominant all year, but considering how he was shut down to only 2.4 yards per carry last week against Oklahoma, we can in no way expect a bounce back in what looks to be an even worse matchup.
Wake Forest at Notre Dame
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Notre Dame -27
O/U: 52
Wake Forest
Team Expected Points: 12.5
TE – Cam Serigne – 3,100
Analysis: The Wake Forest offense has been horrible this season, averaging just over 300 yards and 18 points per game, good for 112th in the FBS. The only consistent option we liked to target earlier in the season was Cam Serigne, but in recent weeks he has been far from consistent with 2 of his last 4 games ending in 4 yards or less. We liked him a lot better when FanDuel had him at minimum price earlier in the season. Now, given the struggles at quarterback for Wake Forest, there are much safer options to pick from
Recommendation: While Serigne definitely has a shot at the end zone and plenty of work, we would rather take that risk in tournament formats only given his price.
Notre Dame
Team Expected Points: 39.5
WR – Will Fuller – 7,300
Analysis: Will fuller had a monster game last week as Kizer hit him for 3 touchdowns and 152 yards on a season-high 7 receptions. This was Fuller’s best game of the season as he has now scored at least 1 touchdown in 9 of his last 10 games. What is even more encouraging is that of Fuller’s 12 touchdowns, 9 of them have been on plays of 15 or more yards. He is one of the best receivers in the country and has proven that he has big game upside with a very high floor. The only downsides other than his price would include the fact that Notre Dame may have a rush-heavy offensive attack in this game where we don’t expect much passing to be needed.
Recommendation: Fuller is a very safe play, but does not project out as the best of values for your lineups. If running multiple cash games lineups, he is definitely worth the exposure. Otherwise, we would seek better value elsewhere in cash games and stick to tournaments for Fuller. If by chance we see that CJ Prosise (concussion) is ruled out however, Fuller received a substantial bump in value putting him in much stronger consideration for usage.
RB – CJ Prosise – 7,500, Josh Adams – 6,300
Analysis: CJ Prosise is currently undergoing the concussion protocol after suffering the injury late in the 1st quarter last week. Before the injury, Prosise seemed to be on pace for a big game as he had already rushed 5 times for 28 yards and hauled in 2 receptions for another 29 yards. Prosise has been very productive this season with 5 games over 128 yards while catching at least 4 passes in each of his last 4 games leading up to last week. He remains questionable at this point, so keep a close eye on his status. If Prosise is ruled out, look for freshman Josh Adams to set up in his place. Adams had a great game in relief of Prosise last week, rushing for 147 yards on 20 carries and 1 receiving touchdown.
Recommendation: If Prosise plays, we think he should have a great shot paying off his steep salary as this game should be very run-heavy. If Prosise is ruled out, we would look for Josh Adams to be an excellent play due to his low salary.
