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Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 11-7-15, 12:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 15 (30 teams)
Duke at North Carolina
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: North Carolina -8
O/U: 56.5
Duke
Team Expected Points: 25
QB – Thomas Sirk – 6,700
Analysis: Sirk has shown his ability to be a threat both through the air and on the ground. He has thrown 6 touchdowns and 0 interceptions over his last 3 games while rushing 43 times for 209 yards and another touchdown in that span. Sirk has rushed for at least 49 yards in all but 1 of his games this year and is facing off against a UNC defense allowing over 200 rushing yards per game. Sirk is limited by his overall inefficiency in the passing game coupled with having to face North Carolina’s #3 passing defense, but the entire Duke offense runs through him—so if this game becomes a shootout with Duke trying to keep up, look for Sirk to shoulder the load with his legs
Recommendation: Sirk tends to be more of a tournament play due to his limitations in the passing game. He comes in as a decent value play here and is worth some QB2 exposure only in tournament formats.
North Carolina
Team Expected Points: 33
The Tar Heels find themselves in a tough matchup against one of the country’s best defenses in Duke. QB Marquise Williams (7,000) is a talented dual threat option, but the matchup makes it too tough for us to consider rostering him in most formats. Williams makes for a great contrarian tournament option due to his high ceiling, but aside from that we are the rest of this Tar Heel offense.
Notre Dame at Pittsburgh
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Notre Dame -8.5
O/U: 53.5
Notre Dame
Team Expected Points: 31
QB - DeShone Kizer – 7,200
Analysis: Kizer is coming off his most impressive fantasy performance of the season after passing for 299 yards and a touchdown while rushing a season-high 17 times for 143 yards and 2 touchdowns. Kizer got the opportunity to shine as Temple absolutely shut down CJ Prosise. Kizer has shown his willingness to run in the past, rushing for over 40 yards in 3 of his 5 starts before this game. We expect Kizer to be fairly limited here as Prosise should find a bit more room to run against Pittsburgh.
Recommendation: We are not projecting Kizer to do much as Prosise should shoulder the offensive load. We would avoid Kizer in favor of other options. We also will be avoiding Prosise due to his elevated salary.
Pittsburgh
Team Expected Points: 22.5
Outside of WR Tyler Boyd (6,200), Pittsburgh has no fantasy weapons with enough consistency for us to consider this week. Even Boyd, their clear cut WR1, has lacked a monster performance this year due to their struggles at quarterback. While he has been in double digit targets 4 times this season, Boyd only has 4 touchdowns on the year with 1 game overt 100 yards. He should see plenty of targets, but his lack of touchdown upside limits our interest.
Texas Tech at West Virginia
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: West Virginia -8
O/U: 79
Texas Tech
Team Expected Points: 35
The Red Raiders find themselves yet again in a game approaching an 80-point total. This offense will be a very popular play on the day, and it all starts with QB Patrick Mahomes (7,600). The West Virginia passing defense is ranked 97th in the country, and Mahomes is averaging just over 370 passing yards per game with only 2 outings passing below 300 yards this season. In addition to the passing, Mahomes has actually rushed over 10 times in each of his past 3 games, amassing 122 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns. He torched the Oklahoma State secondary for a season-high 480 yards last week, so with this matchup in addition to their underdog status, we expect a huge game from Mahomes.
WR Jakeem Grant (6,500) is by far Mahomes’ favorite target, as he has over twice as many receptions and yards as any other player on the team. Grant had a career day last week as he caught 13 passes for 178 yards and a touchdown in their losing effort. We very well could see a repeat performance this week as the matchup is even better. All 4 other receivers priced between 3,400 and 4,100 are in play, with our favorite being WR Zach Austin (3,400) due to his discount salary. RB DeAndre Washington (5,500) also must be considered as he has been very consistent as of late, scoring a touchdown in each of his last 4 games while averaging 19 carries per game. Washington typically gets his work on the ground and always represents a threat through the air as well.
Recommendation: Both Mahomes and Grant should be a very chalk plays in all formats on this slate. Feel free to roll the dice with any of the receivers, but we prefer Austin as the best value play. Washington is worth the exposure at this price as well, particularly in tournaments with his high ceiling if he gets rolling.
West Virginia
Team Expected Points: 43.5
West Virginia is also in a great spot here facing one of the nation’s worse defenses. RB Wendell Smallwood (6,400) has put up very consistent fantasy numbers throughout the season. Over his last 5 games, Smallwood has rushed over 100 yards on 4 occasions while averaging 6.4 yards per carry; however, despite that productivity, he only reached the end zone twice in those 5 games. We expect Smallwood to have plenty of room to run against this very loose Texas Tech defensive front, especially as West Virginia tries to keep the ball away from the high powered Red Raider offense. QB Skyler Howard (7,500) has had his ups and downs in recent weeks. He continues to be placed in a tough position this week as West Virginia plays yet another explosive offense that should keep him at work most of the day. Howard should be asked to do a lot here if Texas Tech jumps out to a lead, so look for some big game potential out of him against the Red Raider defense allowing over 300 passing yards per game. Howard’s #1 target is WR Shelton Gibson (5,500), who has been a touchdown machine this season scoring in every game but one thus far. Granted, Gibson has only averaged around 4 catches per game this year, so he certainly is dependent on that touchdown look to pay off his salary.
Recommendation: Skyler Howard could have a big game here and comes in as a stellar value in our projections. He is a risky option in your cash games, but Howard is certainly playable in tournaments as his ownership should be quite low compared to others near his salary. Gibson is more of a tournament play as well, very stackable with Howard. Smallwood should give you a solid option at running back in all formats as he has the best matchup in this game.
Central Florida at Tulsa
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Tulsa -16.5
O/U: 64
Central Florida
Team Expected Points: 23.75
The UCF offense ranks dead last in FBS with only 264 yards and 14.1 points per game. Even with this favorable matchup, we can’t sanely recommend anyone as a viable play.
Tulsa
Team Expected Points: 40.25
QB – Dane Evans – 7,400
Analysis: Evans had an off game against a decent SMU passing defense last week as he failed to find the end zone for only the second time this season. Tulsa relied heavily on their rushing attack to keep control of that game, partially because of SMU’s ability to cover most of Evans’ options through the air. We expect a bounce back this week against UCF’s 107th ranked defense, which is saying something considering their 0-9 record since most teams likely didn’t have to pass much on them. The UCF secondary allowed a perfect performance from Cincinnati’s Gunner Kiel last week (15/15 for 300+ yds and 5 TD’s), so that must certainly give Evans some optimism coming into this game.
Recommendation: While we do expect a bounce back week, it will be tough to pass up on the plethora of other options at this price point. Evans has upside given his matchup against the atrocious UCF secondary, but his floor is rather low as well if their game script leans towards the run as it did last week. Avoid Evans in cash games, and limit your exposure in tournaments.
WR – Keyarris Garrett – 6,800, Joshua Atkinson – 5,500
Analysis: We are going back to the well again with Keyarris Garret as one of our top projected receivers of the week. Tulsa has too good of a matchup to not consider their top wide-out. While Garrett undoubtedly had a down week against SMU, we fully expect him to bounce back strong Tulsa puts up some big plays through the air against UCF’s atrocious secondary. Joshua Atkinson is also a great way to get exposure to Tulsa and has plenty of upside as we’ve seen him cross the 100-yard mark 5 times this season. He was battling injury through the SMU game, but all signs lead to him being a healthy start this week.
Recommendation: Garret is one of our top plays at the position, fully playable in all formats. He has as high of a ceiling as Doctson but comes at a huge salary discount. Atkinson is also in play for cash game consideration.
Kentucky at Georgia
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Georgia -14
O/U: 57.5
Kentucky
Team Expected Points: 22
RB – Mikel Horton – 4,100
Analysis: Kentucky faces off against Georgia’s 22nd ranked defense this week. QB Patrick Towles (5,000) has been less than impressive over the past couple of weeks, and the Wildcats’ leading rusher Stanley Boom Williams will be sidelined in this matchup. RB Mikel Horton will get the start in relief of the injured Stanley Boom Williams as he faces off against Georgia’s 22nd ranked defense. Horton looked great last week averaging 7.8 yards per carry for 109 yards and 1 reception for 19 yards in the losing effort against Tennessee.
Recommendation: While his matchup is a tough one, Horton is a great value for a starting running back at this price. He is playable in all formats due to this value and RB1 workload upside.
Georgia
Team Expected Points: 36
RB – Sony Michel – 5,900
Analysis: Sony Michel has been playing through nagging injuries all season, with the latest being a broken bone in his hand sustained last week against Florida. Michel has only managed to average around 3.4 yards per carry over the last couple of weeks and has not found the end zone since taking over starting duties for Nick Chubb. The Georgia offense as a whole has been largely dysfunctional over the past few weeks, having went 8 quarters now without a single touchdown. The Bulldogs however have a much better matchup this week as the Kentucky defense is atrocious. We expect Georgia to fully leverage the services of Sony Michel as they come in a 2-touchdown favorite at home.
Recommendation: Michel is one of our top projected running backs of the slate and an excellent play in all formats at this price point.
Vanderbilt at Florida
Kickoff: 12:00PM EST
Spread: Florida -21
O/U: 37.5
Vanderbilt
Team Expected Points: 8
This Vanderbilt offense may be one of the worst we have seen in years. In a game with a total this low, you will definitely be avoiding them.
Florida
Team Expected Points: 29
This game has too low of a total for us to seriously consider anyone. Vanderbilt’s defense is the strength of that squad, so we will be avoiding any and all of Florida players.
Stanford at Colorado
Kickoff: 1:00PM EST
Spread: Stanford -16
O/U: 59.5
Stanford
Team Expected Points: 36
RB – Christian McCaffrey – 9,400
Analysis: Christian McCaffrey extended his streak of 100+ yard rushing games to 6 last week as he carried 22 times for 107 yards while catching a team-leading 4 balls for 26 yards. We cannot doubt that McCaffrey has been more than impressive rushing the ball this season, but the main point of concern we have with him is the lack of goal line work he sees. McCaffrey was passed over again last week as Remound Wright received the 2-yard touchdown carry. Wright leads the team in touchdowns with 9, which is tough to stomach from a fantasy perspective when you have a 1000-yard rusher averaging over 6 yards per carry.
Recommendation: Stanford sees a very favorable matchup against Colorado’s 103rd ranked rushing defense, so look for McCaffrey to run wild again here as he is the highest priced running back in this slate. While he should eclipse 100 yards yet again for a rather safe performance, McCaffrey’s upside is severely limited by his lack of goal line usage. We would gravitate towards McCaffrey as a cash game play only, and a pricey one at that as there are plenty of values in juicier games to target this week.
WR- Austin Hooper- 3,700
Analysis: Hooper missed the end zone last week as he recorded only 1 catch for 17 yards in the outing. The game script was very rush heavy last week as Stanford as a team only accrued 86 total passing yards. This week could be very run-heavy yet again, so Hooper is a risky, but cheap, proposition.
Recommendation: Hooper comes in as one of our usual punt plays due to his touchdown upside. While Stanford may run a rush-heavy attack as they are 2-touchdown favorites, Hooper may get a red zone look to pay off his cheap salary. He is far from an excellent play, but definitely a viable punt if needed.
Colorado
Team Expected Points: 20
WR – Nelson Spruce – 5,000
Analysis: Nelson Spruce has been somewhat of a fantasy letdown this season as he only has 2 touchdowns on the year with not a single game over 100 rushing yards yet. He clearly leads the team in receptions, consistently hauling in an average of 6-8 balls per game. His yardage totals have been eerily consistent as well, with every game between 60-90 yards this season. Spruce is coming off his best game of the year with 11 receptions for 90 yards, and his ceiling is fairly high as he consistently puts up points. However, if you are looking for a potential break-out game, this week might not be the best choice as he faces the tough Stanford defense.
Recommendation: At this price, we wouldn’t fault Spruce as a safe cash game play as his floor is around 6 receptions for 60 yards. He certainly has the talent to put up big numbers, but we just have not seen it through 9 games this season.
Arkansas at Ole Miss
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Ole Miss -10
O/U: 54
Arkansas
Team Expected Points: 22
RB - Alex Collins – 7,500
Analysis: The Razorbacks square off against an Ole Miss defense allowing just over 120 rushing yards per game, good for 25th in the country. Arkansas has lived by their rushing game this season as RB Alex Collins is the focal point of that offense. He receives a high volume workload averaging just over 20 carries and 120 yards per game with 12 touchdowns, but he faces stiff competition this week against a good Ole Miss team. While Collins may hit his 100-yard mark by workload alone, it should be tough for him to live up to his price here.
Recommendation: We would prefer other options over Collins this week as he is just too expensive for his matchup this week. Look for cheaper values at this position.
Ole Miss
Team Expected Points: 32
QB – Chad Kelly – 6,700
Analysis: While Arkansas is ranked 20th against the run, their secondary has been torched this year for an average of 273 yards per game, ranking 115th overall. Chad Kelly threw the ball a season high 51 times in their last game against Auburn as he eclipsed 300 yards for the 6th time this season. Kelly should have a solid shot at crossing that mark again this week in this great matchup.
Recommendation: Kelly provides some value at this price, but there are too many other high potential options higher on our board to consider this week.
WR – Laquon Treadwell – 6,700, Quincy Adeboyejo – 4,200
Analysis: Laquon Treadwell has been Mr. Consistency over the past few weeks as he has now hauled in at least 1 touchdown and 100 yards in each of his last 4 games. Treadwell had a slow start to the season, but we have seen him turn up the volume in recent weeks as he is finally living up to his potential. While Quincy Adeboyejo has been relatively quiet in recent weeks compared to earlier in the year, he still has fantasy potential as we expect Arkansas to game plan for Treadwell and leave Adeboyejo in more 1-on-1 matchups to take advantage of with his 6’3 size.
Recommendation: Treadwell comes in at a hefty price this week. Compared to the other guys in his salary bracket, we will find it tough to justify rostering Treadwell as his ceiling is the lowest of the group. Adeboyejo is a punt option playable primarily in tournaments.
Arizona State at Washington State
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Washington State -2.5
O/U: 63.5
Arizona State
Team Expected Points: 32.25
RB – Demario Richard – 6,800
Analysis: Washington State has allowed over 200 rushing yards per game this season as their rushing defense is ranked 106th in the FBS. Starting running back Demario Richards has contributed in a number of ways this season, including rushing for over 100 yards in 4 games while catching at least 2 passes in 5 of the 7 games he has played in. Richards boasts an 8-reception performance along with a 151 receiving yard game, so we can certainly tell he is a dual threat back. Richard ran all over Oregon last week as he averaged 7.1 yards per carry for 135 yards and a touchdown, so we see him playing a big part in Arizona State’s offensive attack as they try to keep the ball away from the Cougars’ dangerous offense.
Recommendation: Richard is a solid value play this week. With his upside from the passing game, we really like Richard in all formats but primarily tournaments.
WR – Tim White – 5,000
Analysis: Tim White has had some very solid games this season, including his last performance with a season-high 9 receptions for 97 yards and a touchdown. White leads the team in touchdowns with 6 while he is tied for the lead in receptions this season with 31. White also give you the added bonus of kickoff returns. We expect plenty of points in what looks to be a back and forth game with Washington State. The Cougars defense has not played well, so White should get some opportunities here.
Recommendation: White is a great value at only 5,000. He has big play upside with his speed, so a GPP play is certainly in order here.
Washington State
Team Expected Points: 34.75
While Arizona State’s defense ranks 33rd against the rush, they are allowing nearly 260 passing yards per game—good for 101st in the FBS. This is not good news for the Wildcats, as Washington State has the most pass-heavy offense in the country as they boast nearly 4.5 times as many passing yards as rushing yards this season. QB Luke Falk (8,300) ranks 4th in the nation in yards and 1st by a mile in pass attempts with 448. He has failed to pass for 350 yards only twice this season and has passed for 4+ touchdowns in 4 of his 9 games. Falk understandably struggled against Stanford last week, but he should be primed for a big bounce back in what looks to be a close game against Arizona State.
The wide receiving core Falk has to pick from is quite deep, with all 3 primary options proving worthy of fantasy consideration on a weekly basis. WR Gabe Marks (6,600) has consistently been priced the highest as he garners most of Falk’s attention with a team leading 63 receptions, 800 yards, and 11 touchdowns this season. Marks has scored in all but 1 of their contests, while both WR Dom Williams (5,300) and WR River Cracraft (5,200) only have 10 touchdowns combined. Williams has led the team in receptions 2 of the last 4 weeks, including their last game with 7 receptions for 94 yards.
RB Keith Harrington (3,500) continues to be consistently involved in the passing game and should get a few carries on a normal week. Even with receiving only 1 carry against Stanford last week, Harrington managed to catch 5 passes for 29 yards to mitigate the damage.
Recommendation: Falk is always a safe bet for your cash games, but you may want exposure to a variety of quarterbacks in his range. All receivers for Washington State are in play, with Dom Williams projected as the best value if looking for cheaper exposure. Harrington remains a steady punt option.
Cincinnati at Houston
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Houston -8
O/U: 72.5
Cincinnati
Team Expected Points: 32.25
This game is features 2 of the most explosive offenses in college football. Cincinnati (ranked 5th in total offense) squares off against Houston (ranked 7th in total offense) in what we expect to be one of the highest scoring games of the week. While the Houston defense looks very stout on paper, they really have not played any offenses worth noting outside of Tulsa this season. Cincinnati should be their first real test, and QB Gunner Kiel (7,100) looks to be the man in charge this week as he has performed very well in his last 2 outings as the starter, including a perfect game in his last outing as he completed all 15 of his passes for 319 yards and 5 touchdowns against UCF. Kiel running this offense has some huge upside, and one of the guys we expect to benefit most from it is WR Shaq Washington (5,700). Washington is the go-to receiver in this offense as he leads the team in receptions and yards. He has 5 games this season with at least 7 receptions, and 3 games over 100 yards. Washington is more of the possession receiver in this offense, but that is not at all a bad thing as his volume certainly can pay dividends as we saw last week with his first multi-touchdown game of the year. We also like WR Alex Chisum (3,300) as a cheap play in this matchup. He is one of the cheapest options on the Cincinnati roster, making him an interesting way to gain exposure to this offense.
Recommendation: Both Kiel and Washington are solid plays at their positions. Each has a very high ceiling given the game flow we expect here. Chisum is a punt play only.
Houston
Team Expected Points: 40.25
The Cougars are ranked 5th in scoring this season as their offense continues to dominate on a weekly basis. QB Greg Ward Jr (8,600) is one of the top dual threat quarterbacks in the league, tied for 2nd with a 70.8% completion percentage while leading all players in the FBS with 16 rushing touchdowns. While we have seen his fantasy point totals dip in the last 2 games, Ward still represents one of the most explosive plays at his position on a weekly basis, regardless of matchup. WR Demarcus Ayers (6,100) has had some big outings this season as well, however his workload has been trending in the wrong direction in recent weeks as he only received 5 catches in each of their last 2 outings. RB Kenneth Farrow (6,500) has been hit or miss all year. Farrow has scored 25+ fantasy points in 3 games while scoring less than 16 fantasy points in his other 5 games, 3 of which were single digit outings. Farrow has had some solid success over the last couple of weeks as he rushed for his best game of the season just 2 weeks ago and averaged over 5 yards per carry against a stingy Vanderbilt defense last week.
Recommendation: This offense runs through Greg Ward Jr, who should be one of the top quarterback plays of the week in all formats. Both Ayers and Farrow are also in play, but more so in tournament lineups due to their workload uncertainty if Ward takes the game over as he has shown he can.
Florida State at Clemson
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Clemson -12.5
O/U: 56
Florida State
Team Expected Points: 21.5
The Seminoles will face their toughest test of the season in what should be an exciting matchup against the #1 ranked Clemson Tigers. Even after allowing a subpar NC State team to put up 41 points on them last week, we still consider Clemson’s defense to be one of the best and most talented in the country. Regardless of who starts at quarterback this week, we are not optimistic about his chances of success as Clemson has shut down opposing quarterbacks all season. It was recently announced that RB Dalvin Cook (7,800) has been battling an ankle injury in recent weeks, but it was announced that he is set to start on Saturday. Cook always has the potential to put up big numbers with his raw talent and workload when on the field, however taking into consideration his price and negative matchup this week, Cook is only on our radar as a contrarian tournament option.
Clemson
Team Expected Points: 34
QB – Deshaun Watson – 7,900
Analysis: Deshaun Watson is yet another one of the talented dual threat quarterbacks on this slate and is coming off his best performance of the season as he nearly eclipsed 50 fantasy points last week. Watson is near the top of the FBS in completion percentage at 70.3 for the. He has thrown for multiple touchdowns in all but 1 game and rushed for a touchdown in 4 of his last 5 outings. Watson faces a talented Florida State defense, but we expect him still to shine in what is one of the most important games on their schedule this season.
Recommendation: There is a risk that he loses productivity if Wayne Gallman gets going early, but Watson should still be a safe bet to hit 2 to 3 times his salary in value. Ultimately, Watson is OK to get exposure to but we see other safer options playable in cash games at this price range.
Iowa at Indiana
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Iowa -7
O/U: 60.5
Iowa
Team Expected Points: 33.75
QB – CJ Beathard – 5,500
Analysis: While Iowa has not been known for their stunning quarterback play, they could see a rather large boost in confidence this week against the nation’s worst passing defense. Indiana is allowing 342 passing yards per game and 42.5 points per game over their last 4 games, so we would expect Beathard to try and take full advantage of this mismatch.
Recommendation: Beathard represents an intriguing punt option at the quarterback position, as he is the highest value in this price tier at his position. However, with so much upside at this position, we think it’s smart to consider paying up for both quarterback spots this week.
Indiana
Team Expected Points: 26.75
Indiana faces a tough test this week as they take on Iowa’s 7th ranked defense. The Hawkeyes absolutely shut down the run which should force Indiana to be fairly one-dimensional in this game. We could see WR Ricky Jones (4,100) as an option here due to his price and WR1 status, however sophomore 6’4 WR Simmie Cobbs Jr. (4,000) has come on strong in their last 2 games with over 100 yards in each. The matchup is too tough to recommend either of these guys in cash games, but we could see a contrarian play of Cobbs Jr. in tournaments as Iowa should be relying heavily on their passing game which could mean some heavy work and big play potential here.
TCU at Oklahoma State
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: TCU -5
O/U: 77.5
TCU
Team Expected Points: 40.5
This game sports one of the highest O/U’s on the board with a couple of the best teams in the country. TCU is ranked #2 in total offense this season with plenty of offensive weapons to consider for fantasy purposes. QB Trevone Boykin (9,400) is one of, if not the, best players in the country and a leading candidate for the Heisman. He is capable of putting up monster fantasy scores on a weekly basis, as shown by his 6 straight weeks of 40 or more fantasy points. While the Oklahoma State defense has been no slouch as they rank 7th in turnovers forced this season, Boykin is about as matchup proof as any other quarterback out there. Vegas expects this game be close and very high scoring, making Boykin one of the safest plays on the board.
WR Josh Doctson (8,300) has been the major beneficiary of Boykin’s success, hauling in at least 2 touchdowns with 129+ yards in each of his last 6 games. While Doctson is expensive, he has put up massive numbers with mind-blowing consistency this season. Both WR Kolby Listenbee (4,800) and WR KaVontae Turpin (4,100) play secondary roles in this offense, but either are certainly in play if looking for cheaper exposure to this game. When healthy, Listenbee has had some nice performances this season with a couple of 100+ yard games and plenty of downfield looks. Turpin has been more hit or miss, as he really only had one explosive game against Texas in which he scored 4 touchdowns in the blowout.
RB Aaron Green (5,800) has also been relatively hit or miss from a fantasy perspective this year, scoring multiple touchdowns in half of his games while failing to reach the end zone in the other half. Boykin is the center of the offense from both a passing and rushing perspective, so Green’s upside is naturally diminished. Oklahoma State also fares much better against the run than the pass, so we look for Green to have a mediocre performance.
Recommendation: You can safely roll Boykin out in all formats as he is the #1 overall quarterback of the slate. Doctson is one of the safest receivers you can opt for, but his price certainly makes him tough to fit in. Both Listenbee and Turpin can be rostered in any format for cheap exposure, but we would recommend Listenbee over Turpin for your cash games. Green is a tournament-only option who would fit well in a lineup that fades the rest of this offense.
Oklahoma State
Team Expected Points: 36
Oklahoma State’s offense has been solid as a whole this year, but from a fantasy perspective they have not yielded many reliable individual contributors. QB Mason Rudolph (6,000) is definitely the starter, but he has lost a ton of touchdown opportunities to backup QB J.W. Walsh (5,100) who they like to bring in for short-yardage situations due to his rushing ability. Their rushing game has not been dominated by any one player as 4 backs each have at least 23 carries with 100+ yards and a touchdown this season. That same story holds true for the passing game, as 7 different players each have at least 2 touchdowns with only 1 receiver above 3 touchdowns on the season. If making a pick from this core, we would recommend WR David Glidden (4,400) as he grades out highest from a value perspective due to his consistent reception and yardage totals. The lack of touchdowns is tough to stomach, but with an O/U this high, the Cowboys’ WR1 should have an above average shot at finding the end zone for the first time in 5 games.
Recommendation: We will be avoiding Mason Rudolph in this spot as he has been losing so much productivity to Walsh. If looking for a risky but under-owned tournament option with touchdown upside, JW Walsh may be your guy—however proceed with caution as his floor is extremely low as opportunities are not guaranteed.
South Carolina at Tennessee
Kickoff: 4:00PM EST
Spread: Tennessee -16.5
O/U: 56.5
South Carolina
Team Expected Points: 20.5
The South Carolina offense has not looked sharp at all this year. Tennessee’s defense, while vulnerable at times, has been playing well lately. The only potential play to consider here is RB Brandon Wilds (5,100), as he has strung together a few good games of over 100 yards in each of his last 2 outings since Steve Spurrier left. Wilds would be a tournament-only option however, as South Carolina should be down quickly in this game.
Tennessee
Team Expected Points: 37.5
QB - Joshua Dobbs – 8,000
Analysis: Joshua Dobbs shined on all fronts last week against Kentucky as he passed relatively efficiently for 233 yards and 2 touchdowns while gaining 51 rushing yards from only 7 attempts for 2 rushing touchdowns. South Carolina is allowing exactly 215.3 yards per game both through the air and on the ground. This makes them much worse against the run than the pass, which should bode particularly well for Dobbs’ fantasy upside. However, we expect Tennessee to handily outperform South Carolina on all fronts, so this could be a game in which Dobbs doesn’t need to scramble as much as usual.
Recommendation: Dobbs is priced near the top at his position on this slate. Given our expected game flow here, we find that it may be tough for Dobbs to safely provide you with the needed return on your investment in his salary. He is an excellent tournament option, but we would look for other options with higher floors in cash games.
RB – Jalen Hurd – 6,300, Alvin Kamara – 3,700
Analysis: Jalen Hurd had a rough time rushing the ball last week against Kentucky, averaging only 3.4 yards per carry on the day. However, Hurd put up his highest fantasy score since Week 4 due to primarily to a 37-yard touchdown reception that helped pad his stat-line. Hurd has a much improved matchup against the Gamecocks defense that allowed a 100+ yard rusher in every SEC game they have played this year outside of a 98-yard rusher from Missouri. This also includes two 150+ yard rushers in the same game from LSU. Needless to say, Hurd should find plenty of room to run as we expect Tennessee to come in with their usual run-heavy approach. While Alvin Kamara will chip away at some of his workload, we still look for a 20+ carry game with 100+ yard and touchdown upside. Kamara has a limited ceiling based on rushing only 4-7 times per game, but he has been very involved in the passing game with 18 receptions over his last 5 games.
Recommendation: Hurd has a very reasonable price going into this solid matchup. He should be considered one of the top plays at his position in all formats due to this value he provides. Alvin Kamara is very cheap, but he does not see enough snaps for us to give serious consideration to using him outside of a tournament play due to his low ownership.
UCLA at Oregon State
Kickoff: 4:30 PM EST
Spread: UCLA -17.5
O/U: 57.5
UCLA
Team Expected Points: 37.25
WR – Jordan Payton – 5,400, Thomas Duarte – 5,000
Analysis: Jordan Payton now has at least 6 receptions in each of his last 5 games, coming his season-high in receptions with 8 for 134 in their last outing against Cal. Payton along with Thomas Duarte both have shown some big play ability in this offense that likes to sling the ball around behind Josh Rosen. Oregon State presents a better than average matchup ranked 44th in the country in pass defense, but either of these guys has potential for a relatively productive outing as UCLA should be scoring as a 17-point favorite. The downside here is lack of touchdown upside, as there are not many guys in this offense sporting multi-touchdown games this season.
Recommendation: Payton is strictly a tournament-only option. We would avoid Duarte at this price.
Oregon State
Team Expected Points: 19.75
The Oregon State offense has struggled all season, ranked 114th in the FBS overall in yards per game. Their starting quarterback looks to be sidelined again this week, so backup QB Nick Mitchell (4,700) is expected to start again. Mitchell showed some potential as he carried 12 times for 40 yards and passed for 204 yards with a touchdown on the road against a very tough Utah defense. While he is not a high upside play, Mitchell could certainly be worth a punt based purely on his price and matchup against UCLA’s 109th ranked rushing defense.