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Details:
- Entry Deadline (First Game Kickoff): 12-26-15, 2:00 PM EST
- Number of games in slate: 5 (10 teams)
Miami vs Washington State
Kickoff: 2:00PM EST
Spread: Washington State -2.5
O/U: 61.5
Miami
Team Expected Points: 30
RB – Joseph Yearby – 6,000
Analysis: Miami will have their hands full against the high flying Washington State offense, but running back Joseph Yearby finds himself in a great spot here against Washington State’s 100th ranked rushing defense allowing nearly 200 yards per game this season. Despite facing 6 top-40 rushing defenses this season, Joseph Yearby still managed to average nearly 5 yards per carry for 939 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns. To be fair, the majority of Yearby’s production did occur early in the season as all 3 of his 100+ yard rushing games and 5 of his 6 touchdowns occurred in the first half of the year. However, we saw Yearby remain involved in this offense throughout the season, including carrying the ball a season-high 22 times for 99 yards in their closing game against Pittsburgh’s 20th ranked rushing defense. This game looks to be tight with field goal spread, so if Miami takes an early lead we could see plenty of Yearby to keep the Cougar offense off the field.
Recommendation: Yearby has not had huge games lately and should be seeing around 30% of his carries go to freshman Mark Walton. His matchup is great against Washington State, but his ceiling has not been very high in recent weeks. We think Yearby’s price is a bit too high to consider him above other options on this slate.
WR – Rashawn Scott – 4,900
Analysis: Rashawn Scott has been a boom or bust guy in Miami’s offense this season. He leads the team in receptions and receiving touchdowns with 47 and 5, with a team 2nd 620 total yards. Scott has 4 games with at least 6 receptions and 74 yards, 3 of which he went for 100+ yards. On the other hand, Scott also has 6 games with 3 or less receptions and less than 40 receiving yards with no touchdowns—including being held to 0 catches against Georgia Tech in Week 12 and only 1 catch for 7 yards in the prior game against North Carolina Week 11. We saw a flash of what Scott is capable of against Pittsburgh in their last game as he caught 7 for 74 yards and a touchdown, but he is far too streaky to be seriously considered outside of a GPP.
Recommendation: Scott’s price is relatively low at only 4,900, but we can’t feel safe with him in a cash game lineup. We would recommend minimal exposure as a GPP play only.
Washington State
Team Expected Points: 32.5
QB – Luke Falk – 7,900
Analysis: As I’m sure you have heard by now, Luke Falk is one of the most prolific passers in college football. With only 11 games on his resume (missed their last game due to concussion), Falk ranks 5th in the FBS with 4283 total passing yards and 4th in passing touchdowns with 36. Falk has chucked it around more than any other quarterback this year with 418 completions on 591 attempts, good for an FBS 2nd 70.7 completion percentage. Falk has 5 games of 400 or more passing yards and 4+ touchdowns this year, in 2 of which he went for 500+ and 5 touchdowns. He will get you nothing with his legs, but the potential for a 500+ yard and 5+ touchdown passing game certainly leaves you with plenty of upside. Miami has a tough pass defense on paper, allowing only 196 passing yards per game. However, they haven’t played many pass heavy offenses this season, and their atrocious defensive line allowing has been exploited much more so than the secondary as they allow over 210 rushing yards per game. Regardless of this matchup, Washington State is a pass-first attack and will most certainly do the majority of their damage through the air with Falk leading the charge.
Recommendation: Falk is a clear top option and recommended play for both cash games and tournaments. He is the top priced guy, but clearly a safe play despite the tough passing defense.
WR – Gabe Marks – 6,800, Dom Williams – 5,600
Analysis: All of the receivers on this team have been blessed to be in the league’s #1 passing offense, making each of them appear quite often in DFS lineups throughout the season. Gabe Marks has been the clear top option as he leads the team with 99 receptions for 1125 and 14 touchdowns. His 99 receptions and 14 touchdowns both rank him 4th in the FBS in those categories. Marks has failed to score a touchdown in only 3 games this year, and has 3 games with 2 or more scores including a 4-touchdown explosion against Arizona. Marks has been extremely consistent and provides you with plenty of 100+ yard multi-touchdown upside. Dom Williams is another explosive guy who has actually been quite reliable in recent weeks. Williams is 3 yards short of 1,000 on the season with 73 receptions and 11 touchdowns. He has at least 5 receptions in all but one game this season with 3 games above 100 yards. We like his usage as of late, as Williams has at least 6 receptions and 1 touchdown in each of his last 4 games.
Recommendation: Both Williams and Marks are in play for all formats, including a tournament super-stack with Falk as the pricing is reasonable enough to make it happen on this small slate. If choosing between the two, we prefer Marks as he is one of our highest projected wide receivers.
Washington vs Southern Mississippi
Kickoff: 2:20PM EST
Spread: Washington -8.5
O/U: 55
Washington
Team Expected Points: 31.75
RB – Myles Gaskin – 5,900
Analysis: The guy to target for Washington is by far and away their star running back Myles Gaskin. Gaskin has been great for the Huskies this season, amassing 1121 rushing yards and 10 touchdowns on the year. While he is not used often through the air, Gaskin does his share of work on the ground as he has accounted for 7 100+ yard rushing games this year along with at least 1 touchdown in each of his last 8 games. Gaskin gets consistent carries, and actually was allotted a season-high 32 carries in their last game against Washington State. Gaskin finished the season very strong with only 1 of his last 8 games below 50 yards and 373 rushing yards in their last 3 games. The tough part about Gaskin this week is his matchup, as Southern Mississippi actually has a decent run defense allowing 140.8 rushing yards per season (34th). They limited Western Kentucky’s DeAndre Ferby to only 2.7 yards per carry and Louisiana Tech’s Kenneth Dixon to a net -4 yards on his 8 attempts in their last 2 games. It does appear that Gaskin will see a favorable game script here though, as Washington is over a touchdown favorite in a game where they will want to keep Southern Mississippi off the field and give it to their most reliable and best player.
Recommendation: Gaskin comes in at a reasonable price here, slightly depressed due to his matchup. We see Gaskin as having a relatively high floor given his solid handle on the carries allotted to Washington running backs. Gaskin is worth some exposure to in cash games, but we do like some other guys at this price point or lower, allowing you to spend up elsewhere if needed.
Southern Mississippi
Team Expected Points: 22.75
QB – Nick Mullens – 6,300
Analysis: Southern Mississippi faces a very tough test here against Washington’s 12th ranked scoring defense allowing only 17.8 points per game. While Southern Mississippi is averaging an FBS 12th 40.6 points per game, we saw Washington limit in-state rival Washington State’s high flying offense to only 10 points in their last game. In addition, Washington limited Arizona’s 18th ranked scoring offense to only 3 points, USC to only 12 points, and Oregon to 20 points. As you can see, the Huskies are very stingy on the scoreboard, even against potent offensive attacks. Southern Mississippi quarterback Nick Mullens may be in for a long day here, but he certainly has put on a show this season ranking 7th in passing yards with 4145 and 4th in touchdowns with 36. While it is very tough to put any weight behind those numbers considering the very weak schedule played by the Golden Eagles, we can still see that Mullens has talent and potential upside.
Recommendation: Mullens has an attractive price on this slate despite his tough matchup. He has shown a ton of upside this season, so we would not mind exposure to him as a QB2 in tournament formats, allowing you to spend up at other positions.
RB – Jalen Richard – 5,200, Ito Smith – 5,400
Analysis: It is relatively rare to see a team with a pair of 1,000 yard rushers, but that is exactly what we have here with Southern Mississippi. Senior running back Jalen Richard has been the #1 guy for most of the season, gaining the majority of carries and touchdowns with 185 and 14. Richard has had some huge games this year, including a pair of games with 150+ yards and 4 touchdowns. While Richard has accounted for at least 1 touchdown in each of his last 4 games, his workload in 3 of those games was concerning as he was given less than 10 carries in each, resulting in a total of 45 carries across the 4-game stretch. Ito Smith on the other hand has been heavily involved in the offense as he was afforded 70 carries across that same 4-game stretch on his way to three 100+ yard outings and 7 total touchdowns. Not only has Smith been involved more heavily in the run game, but he continues to be a constant threat through the air as he amassed 14 receptions for 156 yards and 2 touchdowns in his last 4 games. Smith has clearly been the more productive back in recent weeks, but Richard will most certainly be involved as well in this game. Their matchup is rough against Washington’s stout defense allowing only 134 rushing yards per game. With touchdowns likely to be scarce, Southern Mississippi playing from behind, and uncertainty around which of these backs will get the majority of the production, this is looking like a situation to avoid in cash games.
Recommendation: As we said above, this will not be a situation you want to target for the purpose of cash games. However, in tournaments, both Smith and Richard have shown huge ceilings worth taking a shot on. We would prefer Smith due to his recent uptick in usage and upside from heavier usage in the passing game, especially as Southern Mississippi may be playing catch up.
WR – Mike Thomas – 5,800, Casey Martin – 4,800
Analysis: Mike Thomas has been about as consistent as a wide receiver can be this season. He has been a touchdown machine, find the end zone at least once in each of his last 9 games. Thomas has at least 80 yards and 4 receptions in each of his last 10 games, including seven 100+ yard performances. He also has managed to score at least 1 touchdown in each of his last 8 games, good for an FBS 8th 12 total touchdowns on the season. While his matchup is certainly a tough one, it is extremely hard to discount this consistency even when it came against relatively weak opponents. Casey Martin is another option in this receiving core, as he actually led the team in receptions with 74 this season. Martin is a smaller receiver than Thomas, and he plays much more of a possession receiver role as a lot of his passes seem to be short yardage plays. Martin has scored 7 times this season and accounted for 855 yards, but he has dropped off recently with only 6 receptions for 111 yards and no touchdowns in their past 2 outings. We have seen flashes of upside as he put up back to back multi-touchdown games earlier in the season, and given the situation of playing from behind, both Martin and Thomas should receive some significant targets.
Recommendation: Mike Thomas is one of the top receiving options on the slate for your cash games, as we really like the value you are getting at his price. We would tend to go for higher upside options in tournaments though, as Washington’s defense is a stingy one that could limit his touchdown opportunities. Martin is more of a GPP punt, as both his price and floor are very low, but the upside is there if he finds the end zone.
Indiana vs Duke
Kickoff: 3:30PM EST
Spread: Indiana -2.5
O/U: 71
Indiana
Team Expected Points: 36.5
RB – Jordan Howard – 7,800, Devine Redding – 5,600
Analysis: Jordan Howard is an absolute beast when healthy—in his 6 games at relatively full strength this season, Howard rushed for over 140 yards in each. With only 8 games with 10+ carries this season, Howard still managed to rush for 1213 yards and 9 touchdowns. The biggest question about Howard in this game is his health, as he is still recovering from a nagging knee injury. The latest reports indicate that he is progressing well, but his status still remains uncertain. Should Howard be ruled out or limited, Devine Redding should have a great opportunity to pick up where he left off in their last few games. In his last 2 games filling for Howard, Redding rushed for a combined 174 yards on 46 carries for 1 touchdown. Redding is a talented sophomore who has shown he can get into the end zone this year with 8 total touchdowns. He looked great in these last 2 games, and even if Howard does play, he certainly may be limited which would allow Redding to get a decent workload. Duke has had a strong rushing defense this season, but we have seen them give up some big games this season, including a 142 / 2 performance by Travon McMillian from Virginia Tech, 69 / 3 by Elijah Hood from UNC, and 111 / 1 by Qadree Ollison from Pittsburgh. Jordan Howard’s talent is matchup-proof when healthy, however Devine Redding’s stock slightly drops as we have not seen enough of him to be confident that workload could overcome this matchup.
Recommendation: You have to check on Howard’s status before making any moves on this situation. If Howard is deemed healthy and playing, he immediately becomes one of the better running back plays on this slate and a great option in tournaments. If Howard is ruled out, Redding becomes a solid option in cash games due to his price, but someone we would tend limit exposure to in tournaments because of his tough matchup.
QB – Nate Sudfeld – 6,600
Analysis: We should see a ton of action on this game as it sports the highest O/U on the slate by nearly 10 points combined with a spread at right around a field goal. This game has shootout written all over it, and quarterback Nate Sudfeld stands to be one of the main fantasy beneficiaries. Sudfeld has a very strong finish to his season, passing for 735 yards and 8 touchdowns while running for 2 additional touchdowns in his last 2 games on the road. Aside from the Rutgers game in Week 7, these last 2 games were Sudfeld’s best of the season as he helped lead the Hoosiers to 101 total points and a couple of victories. Sudfeld now faces a reeling Duke team with a defense allowing a mediocre 228 passing yards per game. Duke has allowed opposing quarterbacks to pass for over 300 yards in 3 of their last 4 games, including a 494 passing yard / 4 touchdown explosion by North Carolina’s Marquise Williams. To add fuel to the fire, Duke lost their star safety Jeremy Cash in the last game—a huge blow to this secondary that we fully expect Sudfeld to take advantage of.
Recommendation: Nate Sudfeld is in a very good spot here, and I have him as a solid quarterback option this week as he may be slightly overlooked due to Duke’s namesake defense. If Jordan Howard suits up though, Sudfeld’s ceiling will be significantly reduced, as Howard can very easily become the clear focal point of that offense. If Howard is playing, we would look elsewhere for your quarterback in cash games.
Duke
Team Expected Points: 34
QB – Thomas Sirk – 7,200
Analysis: Thomas Sirk finds himself in the best matchup of the week facing a historically bad Indiana defense. The Hoosiers rank dead last in passing yards allowed per game with 326 in addition to allowing their fair share of rushing yards per game at 180. Sirk is a true dual threat quarterback. In 11 games played this season, Sirk has passed for 2500 yards and 15 touchdowns while also leading the Blue Devils in rushing with 648 yards and 6 rushing touchdowns. There is no doubt that Duke has struggled in the second half of the season, but their entire offense has basically been running through Thomas Sirk this season. In a matchup against such a horrible defense, even a mediocre quarterback can look like a Tom Brady. Sirk could very well surpass the 300-yard mark for his 2nd time this season while adding yards on the ground or even a rushing touchdown.
Recommendation: Sirk is the 2nd most expensive quarterback on the board, but for good reason because of this very favorable matchup. With the O/U where it is, it is hard not to lean towards Sirk here. Even at this price, Sirk is a top option for both cash and tournament formats. We would recommend fitting him in for the majority of your lineups.
WR – TJ Rahming – 3,900
Analysis: Freshman TJ Rahming has had a relatively quiet year until his last couple of weeks. We saw Rahming absolutely explode with 12 receptions for 190 yards and a touchdown 2 games agop against Virginia. This was a career high for Rahming, and he followed it up with another solid game with 7 receptions for 63 yards against Wake Forest in their last outing of the season. His usage in these past few weeks has been very encouraging, and the attractive matchup is as good as it gets for him to have a respectable showing this week.
Recommendation: At only 3,900, Rahming makes for an excellent punt option in any format due to his matchup. Stacking him with Sirk could pay some nice dividends.
Tulsa vs Virginia Tech
Kickoff: 4:45PM EST
Spread: Virginia Tech -14
O/U: 61.5
Tulsa
Team Expected Points: 23.75
The Tulsa offense is in a really tough spot here against Virginia Tech’s top notch defense. This is a mismatch that may be tough for Tulsa to overcome as their aerial attack faces Virginia Tech’s 9th ranked passing defense. This is one of the best secondaries in the country, and with it being Coach Frank Beamer’s last game, we expect an extra pep in the Hokies step here. Tulsa should struggle, and at their prices, we are avoiding the team all together outside of contrarian tournament plays of their top receiving options.
Virginia Tech
Team Expected Points: 37.75
RB – Travon McMillian – 6,900
Analysis: Virginia Tech has a ton of option in consideration as they come in with the highest expected point total on the board. The Hokies offense has not exactly been high flying this season, but Tulsa is by far and away the worst defense they will have faced all year. The Golden Hurricanes sport the third worst defense in terms of yards per game, allowing 532 total yards on top of nearly 39 points per game. Freshman Travon McMillian has been the workhorse back of this offense for most of the season, averaging nearly 22 carries and 105 yards per game in his last 7 games since locking up the starting job. Tulsa is allowing nearly 240 rushing yards per game, and with Virginia Tech favorited by 2 touchdowns, a 25+ carry workload is not at all out of the question for McMillian.
Recommendation: McMillian comes in at a very solid price here below the couple of top tier options, and with this juicy matchup / game script, he resides at the top of our list at running back plays in consideration for any format of contest, particularly cash games.
WR – Isaiah Ford – 5,200, Bucky Hodges – 4,200
Analysis: Isaiah Ford has been a solid contributor for the Hokies all season, putting up 937 receiving yards from 63 receptions for 10 touchdowns on the year—leading the team in all 3 categories. Ford has been heavily involved all season, but hasn’t really put up many monster performances due to the offense he is in. However, in their past 3 games, Ford’s usage has really increased as he has amassed 19 receptions for 322 yards and 3 touchdowns, including a touchdown in each game. Bucky Hodges at tight end is also another option to consider here, as he has 6 touchdowns on the year, all of which came in bunches with 3 multi-touchdown games. Virginia Tech should be able to throw for whatever they want in this game facing Tulsa’s 124th ranked passing defense, however we don’t see them needing to throw too often with the 2 touchdown spread in play.
Recommendation: Based on the matchup, we have Ford projected as one of our top receivers on the slate, making him an excellent play. However, keep in mind the possible game script. Stacking McMillian with Ford in a cash game may not be a bad play, but we would lean towards inserting McMillian over Ford when it comes down to it. Hodges is a punt option who can be considered for salary relief, but more so in tournament formats as his floor is low but ceiling relatively high with the red zone usage.
UCLA vs Nebraska
Kickoff: 9:00PM EST
Spread: UCLA -7
O/U: 61
UCLA
Team Expected Points: 34
QB – Josh Rosen – 6,800
Analysis: The Nebraska secondary has been atrocious this season, allowing nearly 300 yards per game through the air. This is a very solid matchup for UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen as he looks to close out his freshman campaign on as high of a note as he opened it. Rosen has had a very solid season as he is 1 of only 5 PAC-12 quarterbacks to surpass 3,000 passing yards on the season. Rosen has crossed the 300-yard mark 5 times this season while failing to cross 250 yards only 4 times. Until his last game against USC, Rosen had went 5 straight games without an interception with 7 touchdowns during that stretch. We expect him to have his way with Nebraska here as UCLA is favorited by a touchdown.
Recommendation: Rosen is priced up as the third highest quarterback on the slate. He is in a good spot and makes for a solid option, but he projects out in that middle ground for us, making him more of a tournament play instead of cash games due to the lack of value.
RB – Paul Perkins – 7,700
Analysis: Paul Perkins has been one of the most explosive running backs in football this season. He has averaged 5.7 yards per carry on his way to 1275 yards and 10 touchdowns this season. Perkins has at least 1 touchdown in every game but 3 and has rushed for at least 59 yards in every game this season with 7 games over the 90 yard mark. He is the clear top option at running back for the Bruins, so a solid workload is in order—however, the Nebraska defense has been particularly stingy against the run as they are only allowing around 114 rushing yards per game.
Recommendation: Perkins’ upside is in question for this matchup as Nebraska has been solid against the run this year. He has been extremely consistent, but at this salary we would tend to play him in tournament formats only.
WR – Jordan Payton – 6,200, Thomas Duarte – 5,100
Analysis: We know the Bruins have a great matchup through the air against Nebraska’s porous secondary, and Jordan Payton stands to be one of the primary beneficiaries as UCLA’s top receiving target. Payton finished the season as the team leader in both receptions and yards with 75 catches for 1069 yards. The senior has made this his best statistical season of his career, and he will look to cap off his collegiate career with a big game here. The one issue with Payton this season has been his inability to find the end zone, as he only has 4 of UCLA’s 20 total receiving touchdowns this year. Payton’s counterpart Thomas Duarte has been the touchdown hog as he has 10 on the season, despite having nearly 250 less receiving yards and 26 fewer receptions than Payton.
Recommendation: Both of UCLA’s top receivers should be in great spots here and are very much in play. Payton’s inability to score has us concerned with his upside, but with the targets we expect him to receive against this atrocious secondary, his chances to score should be there. When comparing the salaries, we actually see Duarte as the more favorable option due to his depressed price and touchdown upside.
Nebraska
Team Expected Points: 27
QB – Tommy Armstrong Jr – 6,000
Analysis: After 5 straight games with at least 38 rushing yards in the middle of the season, Armstrong has only crossed the 20 yard mark once in his last 5 games. He is also hit or miss through the air—in his last 7 games, Armstrong has passed for less than 190 yards in 3 of them while passing for over 260 yards in the other 4. He really struggled in their last game against Iowa as well, failing to pass for a single touchdown while coughing up a season-high 4 interceptions.
Recommendation: While Armstrong has some upside, he has been inconsistent while not excelling as of late. UCLA has a relatively solid defense, so we will have to pass on Armstrong for cash game consideration. Nevertheless, at only 6,000, he is still in play as a punt QB2 in tournaments.
